Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research finds the Greens gaining a point for the second week in a row, this time carrying Labor with it on two-party preferred.

The Essential Research fortnightly rolling average has ticked a point in Labor, their two-party lead now at 53-47 after a long stretch at 52-48. The major parties are in fact stable on the primary vote, at 39% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, but the Greens are up a point for the second week in a row to 11%, a gain that has been well in line with other polling.

The poll also includes Essential’s occasional results on the government’s handling of various issue areas, and given the last such results were published in February, they find the government taking a considerable knock – with the telling exception of “relations with other countries”, for which the net rating has gone from minus 3% to plus 15%. However, the government is off 15 points on education and schools, 14 on social welfare and health services, 12 on climate change and nine on managing the economy.

Further questions find strong opposition to buying submarines from Japan (28% support, 51% oppose), a slight majority against providing military aid to the Ukraine (36% support, 42% oppose) and opposition to the deferral of superannuation increases (29% approve, 49% disapprove).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

653 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Dio:

    After the misogynistic behaviour and commentary displayed towards our first woman PM being so commonplace and normalised in so many contexts, I’m not surprised that it’s getting worse.

  3. In case anyone’s interested: my contacts in Suva tell me Fiji First is on 48% before the sub-5% threshold candidates are eliminated, which means a clear majority for Bainimarama. SODELPA on 42%.

    (Caveat: I dont know how far into the count they are…)

  5. Daren Laver,
    [And of course, with such shockingly high figures, that means a good proportion of women themselves subscribe to such a view.
    ]
    Sadly and infuriatingly so.
    There is a psychological reason that could be the basis of it. If it can happen to one woman it can happen to any. That means being powerless over your fate, which is terrifying. By pointing out how the victim ‘brought it on themselves’ it gives the illusion that one can avoid that fate by sticking to ‘the rules’.

    It takes a lot to give that up, and confront the reality. This is not just a female victim reaction, men do it to themselves too. But it explains why women police themselves on behalf of a patriarchal system.

  8. [There is a psychological reason that could be the basis of it. If it can happen to one woman it can happen to any. That means being powerless over your fate, which is terrifying. By pointing out how the victim ‘brought it on themselves’ it gives the illusion that one can avoid that fate by sticking to ‘the rules’.]

    Yes, and this is true of many crimes we hear about.

    Missing children is the same — many parents at home when they see such stories quickly say to themselves “well, I am sure they must have been in a bad home”, or the kids were poorly supervised etc. “wouldn’t happen to our Johnny because we never leave him like that…”

  11. Bluey doesn’t have a whole lot of free time these days.

    He spends most of his time dodging barge loads of sludge and train loads of bullshit.

  13. I am neither shocked nor perturbed by the NCAS survey. At first glance 40 per cent believing rape is caused by uncontrolled sex urges seems understandable. Many of those 40 per cent are likely to be men and women who have never thought of raping anyone themselves and, in their simplicity, think the only “value” in raping someone is to get your rocks off. That such a percentage should not think through the horror of the act seems consistent with the “power” of their political thought processes – otherwise 3 word slogans wouldn’t work.

  21. [7.30 Report

    Well that interview of Joe by Leigh Sales shows things haven’t improved , just as weak & shallow as it was before Sales took time off.]

    Just another bunch of attempted gotchas.

    We had it on in the background, and that was almost unbearable.

    Leigh is well past her Use-By date.

    She should stick to having babies and the New Weekly writeuips of same.

  22. Puffy

    Do they have the prerequisite mathematical skills to count placemats though?

    I think Human Waste Facility Hygiene Engineers would be more appropriate.

    After all how much damage could they do with a dunny brush and a can of Ajax?

    👿 😆

  23. Nicholas @ 534: Mr Palmer’s beliefs about Mr Abbott’s citizenship status are neither here nor there. Mr Palmer clearly believes lots of things that are objectively false: that merely calls into question the value of his views on any questions of fact.

    While some people seem to be putting the Abbott issue on par with the questioning of Mr Obama’s birth in Hawaii, the two cases are really totally different. There is abundant evidence on the public record of where Mr Obama was born, including microfiche records of birth notices in the local press in Hawaii. Whereas in the case of Mr Abbott, it is on the record that he was at one point a UK citizen (by birth), but his renunciation thereof is not on the public record. As I pointed out in my earlier post, he would not have been required to produce such proof in order to nominate for the House of Representatives, but would simply have had to make a declaration that he was qualified to run, which the AEC is legally obliged to take at face value.

    I therefore have no way of knowing whether Mr Abbott ever took the necessary steps to renounce his UK citizenship. Neither, I suspect, do most of the people who are posting on the subject.

    The bottom line, however, is that if he didn’t take such steps before he started running for Parliament, he would appear to have breached the Criminal Code by falsely declaring that he was constitutionally qualified to run.

    To query whether this has happened is not a matter of engaging in conspiracy theories, but simply asking whether the law was complied with. If it was, it would be the simplest of simple matters to publish the relevant paperwork. The fact that that hasn’t been done is therefore, on the face of it, suspicious. Given that it is known that Mr Abbott was at one time a UK citizen, it is, in fact, reasonable to assume that he remains one in the absence of evidence to the contrary.

  30. BB 571 Strangely enough I think the more Hockey peddles the same line about Budget emergency and Labor’s debt and deficit, the better it is for the ALP.

    The LNP budget script is unchanged despite the very clear message in poll after after poll that it is not credible to most Ozzies. Blaming the ALP is, from an ALP perspective the best thing Hockey can do. It just reinforces the view that the LNP are all blame and no solutions.

  31. One more point on the question of Mr Abbott’s qualification to run. The current government seems well on track to try to introduce more onerous requirements on voters to produce documentary evidence of their right to vote, in line with Queensland’s recent amendments. And the argument they adduce is that it’s needed to stamp out electoral fraud. But if that’s the case, the good example should come from the top: getting on the ballot under false pretences, if that’s what’s happened, is arguably a more heinous form of electoral fraud than getting a vote under false pretences, since one vote gives you a miniscule chance of influencing who governs, while getting on the ballot may make you Prime Minister.

  33. Guytaur

    The RBA has stated that the repeal of the carbon tax would slightly lower the rate of inflation that is all. I’ll go with Glen Stevens on that one.

    Market traders and investors gave absolute scant regard to the implementation or repeal of the carbon tax.

  37. pedant

    There seems to have been a mega load of undue diligence resulting in Abbott becoming PM. Let’s start with he is incapable of the position and work backwards.

  38. [Leigh is well past her Use-By date.

    She should stick to having babies and the New Weekly writeuips of same.]

    Dude wtf? Less than 20 comments after someone said this:

    [After the misogynistic behaviour and commentary displayed towards our first woman PM being so commonplace and normalised in so many contexts, I’m not surprised that it’s getting worse.]

  39. [ I therefore have no way of knowing whether Mr Abbott ever took the necessary steps to renounce his UK citizenship. ]

    And considering that we know he is a liar (he admitted as much on national TV FFS) not to mention his performance post election, its legitimate to question the credibility of any declaration or assertion he has made on this matter. Especially given how easy this would be to clear up if he is telling the truth.

  40. jules@588

    Leigh is well past her Use-By date.

    She should stick to having babies and the New Weekly writeuips of same.


    Dude wtf? Less than 20 comments after someone said this:

    After the misogynistic behaviour and commentary displayed towards our first woman PM being so commonplace and normalised in so many contexts, I’m not surprised that it’s getting worse.

    The outrage of our feral feminists is highly selective. 😉

  42. Leigh’s parenting status and gender are beside the point. She’s a competent and skilled TV interviewer, but sadly her limitations in the cutting edge political interview were shown in stark relief by Sarah Henderson

  44. imacca @ 589: Indeed. To ask Mr Abbott to clarify his citizenship status hardly constitutes prying into deeply private matters. Indeed, the answer one way or the other would be something that almost everyone would find totally boring, UNLESS he’s been telling fibs about it.

  47. guytaur@596

    bemused

    BB made a critique of the ability of Leigh Sales to do her Job. In just the same way he and many others have done with Chris Uhlmann.

    In highly sexist terms. But don’t you worry yourself about that. 😀

  48. [I am neither shocked nor perturbed by the NCAS survey.]

    After the brutal and misogynistic way Gillard was treated by her opponents and by her own mob, I have some sympathy. However, I still find the results perturbing.

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