BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

Three new results give Labor and the Greens a lift in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Three new polls this week have collectively taken the shine off the Coalition’s recent recovery in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and returned Labor to absolute majority territory on the seat projection. Labor is recorded as gaining six seats, including two in New South Wales and one each in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania. Its primary vote is little changed, but there’s an intriguing uptick for the Greens – something Essential Research contributed to, as well as the widely noted three-point lift in Newspoll – which quite possibly has something to do with major party bipartisanship on Iraq. Meanwhile, Palmer United is recorded as heading the other way, falling to a five-month low. Newspoll and Essential Research both provided leadership ratings this week, which have brought Bill Shorten nearer to parity on net approval, levelled off the positive trend to Tony Abbott, and left preferred prime minister much as it was, with Abbott narrowly in front.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,807 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  6. victoria

    From your link. Brough appears to be a serial fibber. Many examples, then

    [Brough set his sights on Slipper’s seat of Fisher. He won pre-selection courtesy of a good old-fashioned membership drive (which some have unkindly suggested is also known as a branch stack). Whatever it was, despite (or perhaps because?) Justice Rares having found Brough was part of a “combination”, with James Ashby, Karen Doane and others, to bring down the Government , it was enough to get him across the line in Fisher even though high profile federal Libs like Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull backed James McGrath.

    It was at a Brough fundraiser in March that the despicable menu demeaning Julia Gillard was circulated. Despite other candidates losing preselection for similar misdemeanours, Brough remained in favour with Tony Abbott.

    Brough set up office two doors down from Peter Slipper’s office. This raises questions about who was backing him because, as David Donovan points out:

    “unelected candidates don’t have their own offices, or huge billboards, or company cars, or staffers; in the normal run of things, they can barely afford to print their own how-to-vote cards. All this … stuff was not paid for by Brough ‒ who hasn’t worked a day since 2007, as far as we can tell ‒ or his wife, who is a hairdresser ‒ but by somebody, or a group of somebodies, who really want Brough to be elected.

    Why are some unknown people spending so much money to ensure Mal Brough is elected? Why is Abbott and the LNP prepared to burn as much political capital as is necessary to ensure he is ensconced in the seat of Fisher? And why was it so important to set up Peter Slipper and totally destroy him?”]

  7. [ lefty e
    Posted Wednesday, September 10, 2014 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Rupert enjoying some venganza, messing with Westminsters heads.

    I reckon he’s got to be seeing Scotland as a low tax zone for his News outlets.

    If so, NO is in for one hell of a rough ride to the line. ]

    If its *Yes* the wily Scots can then ban him from entering or operating any business there.

    A NewsCorp free zone – sounds pretty good to me.

    Mind you though, Murdoch is a Scots name – so he may be working that angle as well.

  8. If Mr Abbott really was a Brit until recently, he has probably breached s.137 of the Criminal Code by making a false statement in nomination forms that he was actually qualified to run. The maximum penalty for that is a year in gaol, which could in turn invoke the disqualification in s.44 of the Constitution relating to being convicted and under sentence for a crime – which is quite separate from the “foreign allegiance” disqualification.

  9. Socrates@3

    Lizzie

    Finally! Yes that is a relief. This road was going to cost Victorians half a billion dollars a year for thirty years to pay for, was still not going to fix the gridlock in many places, and the train system still needs the City tunnel. There are many legal grounds to can it, with varying amounts of compensation, from zero to tens of millions, but all vastly less than the cost of the roaad.

    I now look forward to zoomsters spin about how this is what she always thought should happen.

  11. Geez Daniel Andrews is an impressive interviewee..

    John Faine threw him several curly ones which he batted away with confidence ..he sounds like a winner to me 🙂

  12. No question it was revenge from Abbott. Bishop admitted it (I had forgotten that – as you do).

    [To give an indication of the LNP’s motives for chasing Gillard, LNP frontbencher Julie Bishop told the Sunday Telegraph in February 2013 that she only agreed to pursue Gillard after the Prime Minister accused Abbott of misogyny.

    “Tony had always given Gillard the benefit of the doubt, he’d always thought there was a line she would never cross,” the now Foreign Minister said.

    “She crossed the line that day, and as far as he was concerned, all bets were off. So it ultimately backfired on her, because I would never have raised the AWU matter had she not done that.”]

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-10/barnett-union-royal-commission/5734818

  13. victoria@49

    adrian

    Interestingly ABC774 is now the top rating morning show. It has knocked off 3aw from its perch. Hope it stays that way

    Is that the same ABC that various idiots on PB want sold off or shut down?

  15. adrian@48

    I wish that we had the equivalent of Jon Faine in Sydney. The morning show here deals mainly in trivia or superficial treatment of major events.

    Is your presenter Linda Mottram?
    Do you have any good ones at all?

  16. zoomster
    Posted Thursday, September 11, 2014 at 9:17 am | PERMALINK
    victoria

    [After reading that, I can’t understand why Brough isn’t a senior member of Abbott’s cabinet – he’d fit right in.]

    Touche’

  18. markjs@61

    Geez Daniel Andrews is an impressive interviewee..

    John Faine threw him several curly ones which he batted away with confidence ..he sounds like a winner to me

    He is living proof that people can grow into the job.

    He has got progressively better after a not so impressive start.

  19. @Victoria. I suspect it is hyperbole and he doesn’t have Ebola. He was in Congo – which is a long way from Liberia/Guinea/Sierra-LEone, which is the epicentre of Ebola (Nigeria is the only other country with confirmed cases; and it is also far from Congo). Likely he is sick from one of many potential tropical diseases that you can catch in Africa. Remember Africa is a big continent!

  22. Good move by the VIC ALP: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-to-dump-eastwest-link-if-elected-even-if-contracts-are-signed-20140910-10f46z.html

    Thats the final naili n the Napthine govt’s coffin.

    Now they have the argue the ALP is being ‘economically reckless’ while the VIC govt itself is:

    – pushing a massive project that no-one wants
    – signing contracts weeks before the public gets a say
    – while they hide the business case from the public
    – and spend unbelevable wads of taxpayers cash promoting their own useless, dead government walking.

    Good luck with that!

  24. Internal devaluation is underway….

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/

    [Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA) has struck a new pay deal that will see wages frozen and pay rates slashed for newly employed workers. From The AFR: Hundreds of workers at Coca-Cola Amatil’s warehouses around the ­country will cop a pay freeze and new hires will take 38 per cent pay cuts under new pay deals… The national rate of inflation of 3 per cent a year means these workers’ wages will effectively go backwards. But more unusually the agreement also enabled a two-tiered pay system that will see new hires receive about 38 per cent less than their incumbent colleagues… ]

  25. Hmmm Jon faine speaking to sabra lane re fed politics. Some mutterings re small reshuffle that may occur as a result of Arthur Sinodonis not resuming his role. Hockey, Morrison and Cormann may feature in a reshuffle.
    Anyhoo, Jon Faine made the passing comment that the mutterings are not confined to the Liberal party.

  26. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/09/sheila-bair-slams-big-four-capital/

    This relates to the major systemic risk in Australian finance – the excessive gearing of the major banks. By gaming the rules, they are able to lend around $21 for every $1 held as equity. In the good old days, a safe ratio was thought to be 12:1.

    If there is any kind of shock to the credit system, either on the liability side (say, tightening of credit in global markets) or on the asset side (disruption in the housing market), the banks will be gravely exposed.

    Excessive gearing by lenders is the main force acting to induce higher property prices over the last 15-20 years – prices that have risen much faster than incomes.

  27. Alston in the West really doesn’t like FPMJG.

    He is at his misogynist best in today’s edition showing a ‘current’ JG with a big bottom and tummy and sour looking face, being mocked by an earlier JG in a 1990s dress with even bigger bottom and messed up hair looking in a mirror – supposedly in 1992 – with the bubble ” Hmm…Oi think oil stay in the future and face the music….besoids…to many misogynists in 1992!”

    I did not think he was the slightest bit funny with his depiction of a PMJG tied up like a pig on a BBQ some 18 months ago was it? in a less than lovely cartoon.

    Once this guy had pretensions about being a great cartoonist but in my view he has morphed into a nasty piece of work…Another old white male I suppose who can’t handle a powerful woman. Who knows?

    All in the eye of the beholder I suppose but the word that comes to mind with him, for me, is the one that rhymes with banker.

  28. [The problems are bloated bureaucracies, overpaid executives (actual academics get far less) and grandiose building programs. Academic junior staff turnover is now high, even with tenure, while here at Adelaide Uni the administrators outnumber the researchers and lecturers combined. Admitting sub-standard students under the guise of “equity of access” requires a lot of teaching resources for them. ]

    Agree,Socrates. Once managers/admin outnumber educators (as happen in AU somewhere in the early 2000s) then your core business is now admin, not education.

    There’s been a managerial revolution in australian unis,in three phases:

    1. Dismember collegiate decision making in favour of managerialism

    2. Sack academics in favour of sessionals, hire a new management underling for every f-t aca sacked,and still ‘save money’ on overall wages. This requires inventing new things for junior managers to do. The solution: forms.

    3.Most insidious of all: then get remaining academics to do all that work for you.

    3 has led to endless form filling by academics.

  29. lizzie
    Posted Thursday, September 11, 2014 at 9:24 am

    [No question it was revenge from Abbott. Bishop admitted it (I had forgotten that – as you do).]

    Ah, no doubt about Julie, she’s a good loyal girl.

    [“The impeccably dressed Bishop smiles awkwardly as Abbott throws an arm around her shoulders, squeezes a few times, and tells the media mob before them, “She’s a loyal girl”.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/weve-moved-on-from-abbotts-conservative-chorus-20091204-kae1.html

  30. And…was it just two nights ago that Channel 7 here in Perth was breathlessly reporting how FPMJG’s appearance before the RC was going to be some kind of ‘gotcha’? So much so that they intended to cover the event ‘live’.

    Nothing last night and dead silence today.

    Try as they may they may – even with the contrived Abbott witch hunt with a real live witch – according to some in the conservative ranks, there has been a failure to “land the killer blow”.

    However, unfortunately for Gillard, this stuff will not go away and will always be there for a bit of mud throwing.

    All in all, Abbott must be a bit disappointed so little has come out the RCs to help him.

    More worrying is if and when Labor, when back in office, follows suit.

    As somebody pointed out here a day or two ago, if such should happen we will hear a lot about ‘costs’ and ‘it’s all the the past’ stuff from the conservative side.

  32. Tokyo goes Carbon Price:
    http://blogs.worldbank.org/climatechange/tokyo-urban-carbon-cap-and-trade-pioneer-supports-putting-price-carbon?hootPostID=22c76b6260f8741f569efac64338d9ec

    “As the Governor of Tokyo, a major city advancing innovative climate change mitigation measures, I endorse the World Bank’s “Putting a Price on Carbon” statement and express my full support. Firmly believing that this World Bank initiative will contribute to the sustainable development of the earth’s environment, Tokyo will call for other cities, nations, and companies that share in the same objectives to come together by endorsing this statement.”

  34. Anyway, back to the big game: Bludgertrack confirms Abbott is a dud on national security.

    Losing on the economy
    Losing on national security.

    Thats about it for Tory game plans. So he’s not much use is he?

  37. New & invent ways to push the YES case….

    Scottish independence: British PM David Cameron begs Scots not to ‘break his heart’ by leaving United Kingdom

  39. Tricot

    Alston has always been a useless cartoonist.

    His cartoons are poorly drawn and make trite and unfunny observations.

    Of course cartoons of such low quality have a natural home in the West Australian.

  40. [ Likely he is sick from one of many potential tropical diseases that you can catch in Africa. Remember Africa is a big continent! ]

    Most likely right. However, getting him into isolation quickly and tracking down his contacts since he returned is the right response to even the slim possibility that its ebola. The capability to do this is why our health system is well placed to control something like this.

  41. Kate McClymont @Kate_McClymont · 5m

    Liberal state exec member Wayne Brown admits he got developer Lee-Jay Brinkmeyer to donate $20k to FEF, as he was told it was legal #icac

  42. @imacca – no doubt. And this is partly the reason why Ebola has ‘thrived’ in rural parts of West Africa; but actually has not yet spread into urban centres (where it is much easier to isolate and apply treatment to potential cases). But at the same time, the media in Australia should avoid hyperbole…. as it can lead to stigmatisation. I hear about people cancelling holidays to Kenya due to fears of Ebola, which is ridiculous….

  43. [Is your presenter Linda Mottram?
    Do you have any good ones at all?]

    Yes and no. I get they impression that they are all scared shitless of saying anything remotely pro Labor or controversial, particularly Motram.

    So they are reduced to unrelenting blandness and trivia talkback. They never allow talkback or listener comments on anything political for obvious reasons.

  44. Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 43s

    Brown says that he told Brinkmeyer #ICAC might come calling, but it was “prior to the meeting around the tiles”.

  45. Michaela Whitbourn ‏@MWhitbourn 2m

    Aaron “black ops” Henry, ex Hartcher staffer and one-time president of the Terrigal Young Libs, is in the witness box. #ICAC

  46. Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 6s

    #ICAC has heard allegations that Hartcher’s office forwarded by express post a cheque for Tim Owen’s campaign.

  48. Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 1m

    #ICAC counsel: “Did you receive many cheques addressed to the FEF?” Henry: “That’s what we would have been posting to Paul Nicolaou.”

    Michaela Whitbourn @MWhitbourn · 22s

    “I just had to post them off,” Henry says of $18k and $35k cheques to Free Enterprise Foundation from Tinkler’s Boardwalk Resources #ICAC

  49. Michaela Whitbourn ‏@MWhitbourn 3m

    Brickworks director Robert Webster, an ex Greiner government minister and Lib official, is back in the witness box #ICAC

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