BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate continues to trend back to the Coalition, with Labor now short of an absolute majority on the seat projection.

A big week of polling, with Newspoll, Morgan and ReachTEL joining the usual weekly Essential Research, has added to the drift back to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. The aggregate concurs with the headline figures of Newspoll and ReachTEL in having the Labor two-party lead at 51.0-49.0, which sees Labor’s seat projection dip below absolute majority status for the first time since the beginning of May. Labor is down one seat on last week in New South Wales, and two in Queensland. Newspoll provides new figures on the leadership ratings, which sadly have less to go on now the monthly Nielsen is removed from the equation. The Newspoll numbers were good for Bill Shorten, which is reflected in the trendline, whereas Tony Abbott’s recovery has tapered off. However, Abbott still has his nose in front as preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,159 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.0-49.0 to Labor”

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  1. Thumbs up for SA and ACT.
    [
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-29/sa-act-reject-government-offer-to-fund-chaplaincy-program/5707430
    At Canberra’s Dickson College, the school has a secular counsellor.

    The school’s principal, Kerrie Heath, said the most qualified person for the chaplaincy position was not religious so they chose him.

    “Our community really was committed to finding the person who was absolutely the best fit for our school and so we ended up with someone who is not a chaplain but is a youth worker at our school,” she said.

    ]

  2. Mari

    I think your story is important, because I tend to think that anecdotal stories do tell us what is going on.

    On the basis of your six at coffee.

    1 is ALP
    5 were LNP

    one has definitely shifted which is a 1/6=17% swing in this demographic to whom Labor or green or PUP
    One – four have lost confidence which may mean a shift.

    OK one coffee set is NOT statisticaLLY SIGNIFICANT but it often does tell us what is happening out there in voter land.

  3. [At Canberra’s Dickson College, the school has a secular counsellor.

    The school’s principal, Kerrie Heath, said the most qualified person for the chaplaincy position was not religious so they chose him.

    “Our community really was committed to finding the person who was absolutely the best fit for our school and so we ended up with someone who is not a chaplain but is a youth worker at our school,” she said.]

    I’m suspicious about ‘best fit’ but so long as the most qualified person be they religious or not is getting the job it is ok. If best fit means they are giving to a non-religious person with inferior qualifications they should be sued out of existence.

  4. WWP

    [The school’s principal, Kerrie Heath, said the most qualified person for the chaplaincy position was not religious so they chose him.]

    That bit says the best qualified.

  5. dave and Guytaur

    Taken on board your good advice re coffee next Saturday, the amazing thng was politics is very rarely mentioned at coffee ,(as it shouldn’t) it was one of them that brought it up

    DTT

    Even more significant the one who has switched told me on the quiet her family has too, ie another 3 votes. Hope it is brought up again and others turn up to coffee, one is an ALP voter(told to me on the quiet a long time ago) but the others are LNP.

    This BTW was a great birthday present for me 😀

  6. Tasmania should use the slogan “The renewable State”.

    They started their renewable programme in the 60’s

    Puts them ahead of most of the world and it was a Labor Government that started it

  7. Have to agree with the whack Gerard Henderson gave Gillian Triggs in this mornings Australian. Her performance has been woeful. If Time Wilson is on 320k, so would be well above that, yet displayed not just a lack of professionalism but more importantly a lack of preparation.

    Her days would have to be numbered surely.

  8. [Australia is facing its highest threat of terrorism for some time.]

    This means the risk moves from being less than that of being eaten by a white pointer to about the same.

    Also if people a really scared of being randomly decapitated, they should stay out of cars. This driving business is some really risky shit.

  9. [ Centre
    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 1:06 pm | Permalink

    Australia is facing its highest threat of terrorism for some time. ]

    True – there is a group of terrorists hell bent on destroying our health, education and pension conditions and stripping away working conditions.

    They are attacking the young, the old, the disabled and anyone else who is not one of them.

    The pathetic bit is that too many of those being ‘terrorised’ voted for the terrorists and almost half would still vote for them.

    People are getting what they voted for – an abbott government.

  10. PvO today:

    [The beginnings of a blame game between the Prime Minister and Treasurer over the flat (if not downright hostile) response to the budget doesn’t help. It is incumbent on Abbott to get behind the budget sell, and his Treasurer, and not be distracted by the national security debate. Otherwise the woes of selling the budget will continue. Remember that the biggest problems with the budget are the inconsistencies borne from prime ministerial intervention.

    We know the paid parental leave scheme, which has copped so much criticism, was a captain’s pick. So was the medical research fund, which undermines the fiscal case for the Medicare co-payment (the money isn’t going into paying down debt). The ERC simply went along with the idea. In a sense it was unfinished business from Abbott’s time as health minister.]

    And:

    [Hockey and Mathias Cormann were even prevented from starting budget negotiations with the crossbenchers before they took their seats on July 1, courtesy of an edict from the PM’s office. And it was Abbott’s decision alone to avoid a reshuffle that would have replaced or reinstated the assistant treasurer, Arthur Sinodinos. Hockey and Cormann have been a man down selling the budget for the past six months. They still are.

    Hockey has been very patient given he has been used as a human shield for budget problems that, frankly, are not of his making. Voters were ready for a tough budget. (I for one think that this budget didn’t go nearly far enough.) But they were not prepared for the inconsistent document delivered on budget night. Nor were they ready for one that included a litany of broken promises and unnecessary commitments that came from the mouth of the PM on the eve of an election he couldn’t lose.]

    I disagree with him about Hockey. Hockey may have been tasked with the job of selling a dud of a budget, but his repeated gaffes were all his own fault. Love the cartoon in the article too.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/abbott-must-take-ownership-and-get-behind-the-budget-sell/story-fn53lw5p-1227041749869

  11. Maybe a judge can be organised to do the review on how the NT government can be educated in the doctrine of the separation of powers.

  12. shellbell

    All the fun of the fair up Darwin way.

    [FORMER MAGISTRATE Peter Maley called Labor “scum” and ­“corrupt” in emails to a former legal client obtained by the NT News.

    Mr Maley resigned on Monday, just hours after seeking more time to respond to questions by the NT News about emails and other documents relating to a matter prior to his appointment as a magistrate.]
    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/maleys-vicious-attack/story-fnk0b1zt-1227040471770

  13. So much lurve in NT politics at the mo. Understatement of the year from their Chief Minister- “Dave is clearly disappointed he’s not deputy.”

    [Tollner dumps on ‘viper’ mates

    FORMER CLP deputy leader Dave Tollner has called his colleagues a “nest of vipers” who have knifed him in the back and will probably move to kick him out of the party.
    Mr Tollner proceeded to call Health Minister Robyn Lambley “one of the most self-righteous people I’ve ever met ]
    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/tollner-dumps-on-viper-mates-amid-minority-government-fears/story-fnk0b1zt-1227042116093

  14. PvO–

    [Governments are too hasty in their design of reforms, damaging their capacity to deliver sustainable change the nation needs. Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd made this mistake in a number of policy areas (think climate change and mining tax). ]

    Right. So the climate change discussion – including the best way to tackle it – went on for several years, until both parties agreed that some kind of trading scheme was the way to go. Then there was a major negotiation between the two parties to come up with a package, which one party walked away from.

    Then there were further attempts to get this through the Senate, followed by a new round of negotiations under the hung parliament, with the crossbenches involved (and the Liberal party invited) in drawing up the policy.

    It was scarcely hasty.

    [Oppositions see value in blocking a government’s agenda, partly because of badly designed policies but also for political consistency. Opposition strategists worry that if they are too nuanced in what they block and what they support, voters will become confused and political advantage could be lost. Abbott was the master of this approach and Bill Shorten is seeking to emulate him.]

    Actually, Shorten copped a bit of flack for indicating quite early in the Budget process that Labor was going to vote with the government. As the government itself admits, most of its Budget has gone through.

    Shorten’s approach has been far more nuanced than Abbott.

    [Of course we also have a hostile Senate, prepared to block even necessary fiscal measures in the name of populism.]

    Even PvO admits the Budget is a dog. Of course the HoR won’t oppose it, because it’s their Budget.

    The Senate isn’t ‘hostile’ as a sort of default position. They have reacted to the Budget put before them.

    And yes, their reaction is ‘populist’. That’s because almost everyone not bound by the need to toe the party line – and that includes van Oselen – recognises it’s a crap Budget.

    [Abbott used his authority to take charge of the government’s first budget, yet he seems to be using his political skills to sidestep responsibility, leaving ownership of the document with Hockey]

    All media commentators recognise that this is happening. They don’t draw the dots to work out why.

    Abbott’s face on Budget night said it all. I commented at the time that his smiling face should be captioned, “Well, you won’t be challenging me for the leadership now, will you?”

    [Because Costello and Howard’s first budget was well received, as reflected in the polls at the time, the Coalition moved on to industrial relations and tax reform, stellar achievements to be sure.]

    Yes, after a gap of several years. How’d the industrial reforms work out for them, btw?

    [It is incumbent on Abbott to get behind the budget sell, and his Treasurer, and not be distracted by the national security debate.]

    Oh, dear, Peter, you naive little muppet. Every body else on the planet understands that the whole purpose of the national security debate is to distract people from the Budget.

    [Voters were ready for a tough budget. (I for one think that this budget didn’t go nearly far enough.) But they were not prepared for the inconsistent document delivered on budget night. Nor were they ready for one that included a litany of broken promises and unnecessary commitments..]

    So why are the Senate opposing it again? Oh, that’s right – because they’re a bunch of negative, destructive ratbags…

  15. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/zhang-weiwei/deng-xiaoping-remembered_b_5706143.html

    Zhang Weiwei writes of Deng Xiaoping’s vision for China from his days as Deng’s interpreter.

    With the first steps of reform going well, Deng was in a very good and relaxed mood. “It looks like we have found our own way,” Deng said proudly. He encouraged Rawlings (Ghana’s president) to pay a visit to Xiamen, one of the special economic zones being established. Xi Jinping, China’s current president, was then a vice-mayor of Xiamen.

    “Don’t just copy China’s model. You have to walk your own path,” Deng cautioned Rawlings. He summarized China’s experience for his guest: “If there’s any relevant Chinese experience for you, I’m afraid it is only one thing: ‘seek truth from facts.'”

  16. poroti

    People a resigning in NZ as well.

    [Judith Collins says allegations that she tried to undermine a Serious Fraud Office director are “extremely distressing and disappointing”, and that she has been the victim of a two-year smear campaign.]

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/

  17. CTar1

    They have been calling for her head for a very long time. Until the recent book release Key has felt comfortable enough electorally not to throw her under the bus. Guess the polls have tightened.

  18. crazies.

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Bec ‏@Brocklesnitch 8m

    Fred says ‘God created Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve’ ‘people aren’t created that way #wcf

  19. ,I>Centre

    Posted Saturday, August 30, 2014 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    AA

    The proposed increase in the fuel excise is not going to cut emissions.

    Abbott is such an ignorant fool.

    The planning around increasing the carbon tax on steroids was given away by Hockey, when he said “poor people don’t drive cars”.

    What he meant was poor people wont be able to afford to drive cars.

  20. Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    Benjamin Riley ‏@bencriley 24m

    Fred Nile saying Christians in Parliament are God’s alternative to the big guy weighing in on bills directly. #WCF

    Admitting this should force a new election without extremists, especially regarding the Royal Commission into church abuse.

  21. Palmer’s long term problem
    _____________
    The problem revolves around the very” modus opeandi” of populist minor parties like Palmer’s
    They do well when like Hanson/the Democrats and even the DLP of old ,they can exploit unpopular govt measures but
    Wwhen like the Dems over the GST they cooperate with the Govt of the day,they suddenly lose their relevance,and much support
    Palmer MUST keep on opposing the Abbott/Hockey Budget or he will lose support very quickly…and without Palmer the party would soon collapse like the One Nation Party once Hanson faded away ..and went to jail

    The old DLP suffered in the late 60ies from its unfailing support for the Libs when they had become very unpopular under McMahon…but the DLP claim that the ALP was linked to the Communists made links with Labor impossible…so the DLP had no where to go but as a Lib support group
    In the end it proved fatal too

  22. Did PvO miss that Abbott and Hockey have doubled the deficit in one year? This fact seems to have been ignored by The Murdochians.

  23. Fairfax sees Abbott’s hope of revival in foreign affairs
    _____________________________________________

    Make no mistake the conservatives in Australia always love a crisis or war
    They then pose as the nation’s saviours against any one of a host of enemies and this appeals to one of our national faults,,,a bad case of zenophobia…not racism but a fear of invaders fron outside
    so the communist chinese,the Vietnamese.the boat people and moslems all have been used in this endless campaign…and often successfully…as in 1966 when Calwell suffered a landslide defeat in a campaign in which the”threat(Vietnamese) from the North” was a shocking feature
    It gave Holt a mandate to pursue the Vietname war…against which the public in a more rational mode,then came to oppose…and when the Vietnamese came in bats from the north it was refugees from the south…anti communist refugees who had fought with the US…an irony that escasped many of our dumb countrymen…and many right wingers opposed that too,,,,even though the refugees were their former allies

    So abbott is on safe grounfd and may do well over the various international crisis ….. Moslems and Putin make a nice diversion from the unpopular Budget and the declining economy …for a while

    In that regard Shorten was unwise to reprimand that ALP senator from WA who said ,just as many of us would,that the Govt is using these matters as a diversion…but sadly Shorten is a poor leader,and one needs a good imagination to see his as PM,despite the Govt’s trials and bas polling

  24. Deblonay @ 1036

    You make some interesting points

    [Wwhen like the Dems over the GST they cooperate with the Govt of the day,they suddenly lose their relevance,and much support]

    The Democrats were very different from the other parties in that they saw their role as facilitating the system of government but also moderating the extremes. The Democrats gradually moved leftwards so they found themselves to the left of the ALP where in 1977 they had been to the right. As they had moved to the left, they risked alienating support if they supported any Howard government measure – GST case in point. Also, though having a strong environmental focus, this position was eaten away by the Greens being seen to own that issue.

    [The old DLP suffered in the late 60ies from its unfailing support for the Libs when they had become very unpopular under McMahon…but the DLP claim that the ALP was linked to the Communists made links with Labor impossible…so the DLP had no where to go but as a Lib support group]

    As I see it, the problem with the DLP was that they remained stuck in some 1955 time warp – which by 1974 had become irrelevant – they had the same policies and even worse the same people (who by 1974 were old men) – they never brought a younger generation through so the old men looked like dinosaurs and become a focus for derision.

    I would not consider the DLP, Democrats or Greens to be populist parties as they all had/ have definable core values whereas Palmer and earlier Hanson clearly were populists. Palmer wants to be all things to all people and doesn’t have a firm defining ideal – if he is pinned down on a point he gets into a huff and walks away. If there was a genuine national crisis of some sort, the feet of clay would be quickly exposed.

  25. [anti communist refugees who had fought with the US…an irony that escasped many of our dumb countrymen…and many right wingers opposed that too]

    Never realised Gough Whitlam was a right winger… He opposed the entry of Vietnamese boat people, it was Fraser that pushed the policy through.

  26. [but sadly Shorten is a poor leader,and one needs a good imagination to see his as PM,despite the Govt’s trials and bas polling]

    Agree, Shorten has not cut through … probably waiting for the research to come back on what his core belief should be (excepting Bill for PM). A boots and all Albo would have been quite electrifying over the last few months.

  27. […it was Fraser that pushed the policy through.]

    Lets not rewrite history again.

    [Initially, the Fraser government resettled only a small number of Vietnamese refugees. By the end of 1977 – 2½ years after the end of the Vietnam War – 2753 refugees and 979 boat people had been resettled. Yet at this time the government estimated that 5600 Vietnamese refugees were emigrating every month.
    During the 1977 federal election campaign, six boats carrying Vietnamese asylum seekers arrived in one day. In the political frenzy that followed, the Fraser government tried to reassure voters that they were tough on border enforcement.
    Fraser warned that ”some Vietnamese who landed in Australia might have to be deported”. Fraser’s minister for immigration, Michael MacKellar, said that boat people would not necessarily be permitted to stay.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/no-the-fraser-era-was-not-a-golden-age-for-asylum-seekers-20120201-1qtce.html#ixzz3BqzVBPiU

  28. The GG’s so-caled environment editor Graham Lloyd trotting out “research” by Dr Jennifer Marohasy, the well known climate denier and general shit-stirrer, as if it were fact.

    [Weatherman’s records detail heat that ‘didn’t happen’]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/weathermans-records-detail-heat-that-didnt-happen/story-e6frg6xf-1227041833824#

    I’ll take the Bureau of Metereology over Marohasy any day – not so the GG.

  29. [Tony Abbott under fire for calling First Fleet Australia’s ‘defining moment’]

    The arrival of the First Fleet was the defining moment in Australian history – how can it be otherwise? Everything since 1788 – indeed the whole concept of Australia relates back to that event. For Indigenous Australians, it was also the defining moment but not in a positive sense – the moment when their way of life was inextricably changed forever. As a stand alone fact – yes it was the defining moment -whether it be positive or negative is the matter for debate.

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