ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. There are more people on the left who would like to see the Greens and ALP work together more and who will agree or disagree with either party depending on the issue than there are in both parties combined, but that is difficult to realise for partisans (of either party) who insist on thinking of everyone as either one or the other and who interpret a primary vote for one party as a complete denunciation of the other.

  2. Victoria, I think that Mumble’s column oscillates between trite observations about polls and sweeping, unsubstantiated calls about how politics works. He lacks the patience and insight to do the big picture connecting of the dots embodied by Andrew Elder’s work on political and media dynamics. He also lacks the statistical nous to provide rigorous analysis of electoral probabilities. He is sort of stranded in no man’s land between those two approaches to political analsysi.

  3. guytaur – Challenging question I know …

    [ who insist on thinking of everyone as either one or the other and who interpret a primary vote for one party as a complete denunciation of the other.]

    Are you feeling like a nude nun?

    ‘Waiting in West Belco’.

    (Total 😀 in hand)

  4. Martin, I was ratified as a Queensland Greens member last week. I think the ALP and the Greens should differentiate themselves from each other in constructive, positive ways. Talk about how the other party emphasizes different issues and approaches an issue from a different angle or historical context. Express disappointment about what you see as the other party’s blindspots and shortcomings. But don’t resort to petulant attacks and for God’s sake don’t make disastrous preferencing decisions which help conservative candidates. I was dismayed when Christine Milne blamed the demise of the carbon tax on Julia Gillard. The carbon tax was a joint legislative achievement of Labor and the Greens. On that policy, Labor and the Greens were friends, and it’s poor form to slap a friend in the face. It’s also electorally counterproductive – it makes Christine Milne look too negative and makes the centre-left perspective in general look disorganized and unprofessional.

  5. Someone asked what the kerfuffle is over in NZ politics is about. This is a good article on it. Would be great if the same sort of people are exposed here.

    [Dirty politics: New Zealand’s own House of Cards is collapsing

    Personal attacks, back stabbings, bloggers secretly working alongside politicians: New Zealand’s latest political scandal has all the makings of a US drama – but it’s real life

    •The whale that swallowed New Zealand’s election campaign

    Hager has obtained information, emails and Facebook messages from the files of right-wing blogger Cameron Slater, founder of the Whale Oil website. The documents show a deep and intimate connection between Slater and Jason Ede, former senior advisor to Key.

    The situation is made worse by the allegation that a senior cabinet minister, Judith Collins, established close ties to Slater to bash enemies. Hager claims that the blogger, with the assistance of Ede, breached an unsecured opposition party Labor computer to obtain private information. Labor party head David Cunliffe says the allegations are “the closest New Zealand’s got to its own kind of Watergate”.
    …………..Something that doesn’t come across in the news coverage about Dirty Politics, and Cameron Slater, Jason Ede, Jordan Williams, Simon Lusk et al is just how fucking awful these people are. They spend their lives trying to poison and contaminate our politics. They enjoy seeing people suffer. They get excited by the idea of breaking up the marriages of their political enemies and ruining their lives.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/25/dirty-politics-new-zealands-own-house-of-cards-is-collapsing

  6. poroti

    [ we won’t be able to defend ourselves because we will have run out of money”.]

    Ignore NZ politics.

    Barn-yabbi a scream.

  7. CTar1@1010

    poroti

    we won’t be able to defend ourselves because we will have run out of money”.


    Ignore NZ politics.

    Barn-yabbi a scream.

    Just print some more. Simple.

    Well, not a good answer, but something at about their level of sophistication.

  8. I tried writing the transcript of the last news report from the ABC, circa 2024, talking of the invasion of Sydney and Melbourne without a punch being thrown, and the closure of all medical facilities – all because Labor and the Greens ‘got in the way’ of budget reforms in 2014…but it was all too silly.

  9. MartinB @ 1001

    I keep trying to point out this obvious fact to those two parties: Figure out either a workable truce, or how to enjoy the view from the opposition benches. There are no alternatives.

    Hint: Choose the first option.

  10. MH17 provides a poll boost to Dutch PM Rutte despite an unpopular budget – somewhat akin to Abbott:

    [In standing up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Rutte risks hurting the Dutch economy and losing jobs as a result of sanctions. Yet his moves to push forward a Dutch-led probe into the disaster and to sanction Russia for a failure to press the rebels to cooperate have heightened his profile abroad and drawn praise at home, boosting poll ratings that had been hit by the government’s austerity program.]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-24/dutch-rage-over-mh17-strengthens-rutte-in-putin-standoff.html

  11. I doubt there be many MH17 like accidents that last a couple of years, domestic issues are prevalent.

    Drought, Jobs, Economy, etc.

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/drought-aid-snapped-up/2362535/

    “However, one Mary Valley farmer wanted to know why she was not able to receive the assistance, claiming the department ignored fruit and vegetable growers as primary producers.”

    “DAFF confirmed the drought relief was designed primarily to help livestock producers, but said there was assistance available for other growers. “

  12. lefty e:

    [But but…liberals….debt…economic management!]

    Shhhh! Don’t think about it. Look over there, terrorists!

  13. Why the hope that ICAC will deliver something to the ALP in NSW comes up short:

    [Kate McClymont ‏@Kate_McClymont · 4m
    Glad to see in ‘Joe notes’ that Tinkler & co going to contact that crooked duo Tony Kelly & Warwick Watkins to c if “still onside” #icac]

  14. [Posted Monday, August 25, 2014 at 3:25 pm | PERMALINK
    citizen

    to Dutch PM Rutte

    The Continental ‘E’ is a ‘A’.

    Make what that of you can.]

    Does that make him a RupertRutte? Like his Australian counterpart, a card carrying RupertRooter.

  15. I do like the new meme – that something’s gone wrong with politics.

    The media rubbished the Labor government (most of us would argue unfairly). Now this government is an utter disaster. Who to blame?

    It couldn’t possibly be that the media got it wrong (so Labor must have been more of a disaster than Abbott is) or that they did something wrong (so it’s not that this was perfectly predictable, only they unaccountably failed to do all the work needed to predict it), so it must be politics that’s broken.

    I used to think that the media was biased, and used that to explain both the unthinking slurring of all things Labor (I once challenged a journalist about referring to the ‘failed BER’ and asked him how it had failed. He got back to me and said that there was no evidence it had, it was just a rhetorical flourish…) whilst accepting everything Abbott said with open mouthed awe.

    Now I just think they’re (as a generalisation) lazy and ignorant.

    I think, if I had the choice, I’d rather people thought I was biased…

  16. Nicholas

    I have no problem at all with the ALP openly disputing our policy positions, and believe we ought to do the same when we regard them as being wrong. Robust, rigorous argument is clarifying, and can provoke both the parties to reflect on what is best.

    The Greens are clearly mistaken, IMO, in some areas of policy — nuclear power being perhaps the most obvious. Equally, the ALP policy on PPL, though still undesirable in my view, is less undesirable than ours. I don’t, as a matter of principle, oppose the G&ST and under certain circumstances wouldn’t oppose raising it, say, to 15%. There’s not much in principle wrong with HECS.

    So if the ALP criticises us on these matters, I’m reasonably happy with this. (OK, they aren’t going to criticise us on our opposition to nuclear power and suggest we take a technology neutral approach to decarbonisation).

    For our part, I’m very keen for us to go hard at the ALP over its support for mandatory detention, and its craven responses to taxation and rent-seeking more generally by the big end of town, its surplus fetishism, its support for militant Zionism and invading other countries when the US does. We ought to argue this stuff out.

    I think it’s fair to say that Julia Gillard mishandled the early part of the MPCCC process, allowing the proposal to be framed as “a carbon tax”. To be fair though, there was plenty of loose talk amongst our own ranks about having “a carbon tax” so the blame for this ought to be shared about. We ought to have been a good deal more disciplined on this one ourselves. I lost track of the number of times I found myself cautioning fellow Greens not to allow the right to call it a tax.

    More broadly though, the fall of the regime was not due to the fact of the carbon pricing, but rather, about perceived dysfunction within government which was amped up greatly by Murdoch. The poor handling of Rudd (and Murdoch) by the ALP from 2010 onwards really sealed their fate, and with it, the fate of carbon pricing. Gillard was obviously responsible in a corporate sense, for the poor mishandling of these challenges but she was clearly only one of those who has to accept some of the responsibility.

    I’d like to see disputes, when they arise, dealt with as much as possible on their substance rather than on the personalities involved. That’s where the arguments should be.

  17. paaptsef @ 1039

    Today is 5 months since Abbott announced to parliament that he knew where MH370 was. How is that coming along?

    ________________________________________________________________

    No need to worry about that time span from his MH370 announcement to the House.

    The way things are going at the moment I expect the Lying Friar to drop another big doozey at around 2pm tomorrow afternoon. Maybe he has found Harold Holt.

    Speaking of tomorrow I think that Madame Speaker might have to be on her guard. There is a lot of fib ministers that are going to need a lot of protection.

  18. 45% of people are not influenced by ICAC to change their vote. One wonders what it would take for them to change? Absolutely incredible how apathetic we are towards ICAC.

  19. What happened to MH370 is an on water operational matter, so if Abbott did tell us, he’d have to kill us.

    Rest assured, though, once we’ve invaded Russia and deposed Putin, he will be able to finally tell us The Truth.

  20. [One wonders what it would take for them to change?]

    The % of no change presumably is a function of people who want to vote for a major party and regard their preference as no worse than the other when it comes to corruption

  21. Following on from the thought bubble of Labor putting up some of its own budget legislation, and given the threat from the Libs on raising taxes, I reckon Labor could put up (what they believe to be) a fair adjustment to taxes and say they’re helping the Liberals fix the Liberals’ mess of an unfair budget because the Liberals obviously can’t figure out how to fix it fairly themselves, that they are obviously paralysed, can’t do much more than huff and puff at everyone and need a bit of a push to get things going.

  22. Labor will support:

    Migration Amendment (Protection and Other Measures) Bill:

    “but oppose schedule two. According to the bill’s explanatory memorandum schedule one “contains amendments which contribute to the integrity and improve the efficiency of the onshore protection status determination process.”

    Labor will oppose ARENA repeal bill.

    Labor will support crackdown on the synthetic drug trade.

    Labor will oppose a social security bill which converts student start up scholarships into loans.

    Refer to 1040 for link.

  23. Kim Williams blasts Murdoch and the Coalition:

    [

    Former News Corporation Australia chief executive Kim Williams says politicians attempted to bully him in the role.

    Mr Williams will not specify the politicians who behaved inappropriately, but says they included Coalition ministers…

    He has also hit out at former News Corp colleagues who he says have personally attacked him in the company’s newspapers, blaming Mr Williams for the organisation’s poor performance…

    “Big mastheads which represented a huge repository of public trust do not enjoy that status anymore. In fact, consumers tend to trust their friends, and even online stranger communities, more than they do established print mastheads.”

    Mr Williams has also described Rupert Murdoch as taking a “feudal” approach to running the company.

    When asked by presenter Eleanor Hall what he meant, Mr Williams did not hold back.

    “Feudal implies a notion of there being a lord and then a hierarchy and bunch of serfs. It’s a pretty traditional description Eleanor, I don’t think I’m reinventing language here,” he added.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-25/williams-says-bullied-by-politicians-sidelined-by-murdoch/5694998

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