The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.
UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.
UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.
In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.
J341983
Thanks
poroti
Talc well into ‘dog shit is OK to eat’ ground these days.
It’s easier to achieve high speeds when there is only one customer. We have to wait to see if vectoring Will mittigate the interference of multiple customers.
Glenn Lazarus PUP making SOME sense, we need to stimulate the economy.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2014/aug/25/budget-deadlock-continues-as-mps-prepare-for-the-spring-sittings-politics-live
“Lazarus says there’s a case right now to stimulate the economy and reward people who want to work. He says we need to keep more money in the economy rather than taxing businesses. He thinks people know how to spend their money. Governments, by contrast, waste money. (How that fits with the stimulus call is a bit difficult to judge.) He’s asked about the finance minister, Mathias Cormann’s recent threat about increased taxes if the budget measures don’t pass.”
But sounds like backing gov on terrorism, he’s only reading what he’s seeing in the media it seems:
“The threat of terrorism attacks is certainly on our doorstep. We see it in the media all the time.”
Retweeted by ACOSS
AusAffordableHousing @HousingStressed 18m
Houses overvalued by up to 30 per cent, says ex-RBA official http://www.afr.com/f/free/blogs/christopher_joye/houses_overvalued_official_up_to_OaTjLJaWNe179RZAhcUzJI …
RM
[e have to wait to see if vectoring Will mittigate the interference of multiple customers.]
Some number of dumb fcuks who think that this will work any time soon should be sent on a freebie to Metropolitan London.
CTar1
Guess this is the Turnbull FTTN dog.
poroti
It’s lunchtime. I’ll do left-over Chinese rather than the Talc prescription.
[The difference from the Greens is that the Greens want a maximum cap put on time in detention of months not years and we don’t punish the AS for how they got in the queue..]
Ah, so guytaur is a Green now? It’s so hard to keep up.
Zoom
Slotted & potted long ago.
zoomster@958
No, no, no… you’ve got it all wrong!
Guytaur is not a Green, he is merely indistinguishable from one.
Clear now? 😉
Just in car for an hour … channel surfing and ended at John Laws show, with Xenephon being interviewed.
He says “Labor and Greens should support Direct Action or else there’ll be no climate change remedial action being done by Australia at all”
Next he’ll be arguing on the same basis that the government should pay big emitter corporations to have their employees piss into the wind.
I thought he was a bit brighter than that.
Bemused and Zoomster
Guytaur has always been a green and made no secret of it.
He clearly also has strong ALP connections but is a green first.
[I thought he was a bit brighter than that.]
This is the same Senator X who thinks that allowing first home buyers to dip into their superannuation will make housing more affordable, yes?
He has good opinions on gambling when it comes to poker machines, but gambling your future wealth with the banks and the property market is a-OK, apparently.
LU
[allowing first home buyers to dip into their superannuation will make housing more affordable,]
Talking seriously fruit-cake.
@LU/963
Senator X has vested interests in housing properties (as much as the rest of Parliament does), no real surprise on his policy on first home buyers.
[Talking seriously fruit-cake.]
Yep.
sortius @sortius 3m
Obviously @TurnbullMalcolm’s promise to remediate copper was bullshit, much like the speeds of his FTTN trial #NBN
daretotread@962
Right, so a denial is not making a secret of it?
LU
Financing Real Estate is just impossible for our next.
Years ago I lucked on a Central London flat. It was doable but took 30 years to complete.
My only child bought a percentage of this from me recently (being affluent disappeared in a puff of smoke when she was offered an ‘equity partnership’).
I live in a decent rental that recently went on sale. I had a go at it but HSBC said too dodgy.
So Melinda’s children will not be able to own.
Things have gone astray.
sortius @sortius 2m
.@Elaine_de_Saxe @BFP73 This is as clear as it’ll get #NBN pic.twitter.com/KiW1EnP7n6
“We are very happy with Martin’s experienc ewith the NBN. Martin recieved services over a trial fibre to the node (FTTN) connection. Your ability to work from home depends on external factors like your work’s IT policy and infrastructure. Your experience, including speed, depends on the NBN technology used to develiver services to you and factors outside our control, including length and quality of the copper line to your premises (for FTTN), your equipment, connection quality, software, broadband plan and service provider’s network design.”
[A NSW Liberal MP voted for a controversial council plan to rezone land for a 2000-lot residential development owned by Nathan Tinkler months after receiving a secret $18,000 campaign donation from the businessman.
When Bart Bassett was a local councillor in May 2011, he voted for a new residential land strategy for the City of Hawkesbury on Sydney’s north-west fringe. The strategy favoured Mr Tinkler’s company, Buildev.
The strategy was approved six months after the coal baron gave $18,000 to Mr Bassett’s successful campaign for the state seat of Londonderry.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/tinkler_secret_donation_to_nsw_liberal_aw50W6Btwge0fB9p5fw9hL
Allowing people to dip into their Super will not fix housing affordability. So people are allowed to take, say, 20,000 from their Super. So they can borrow 100,000 more. Guess what happens? Median house price jump by about 100,000. We’ve seen the same with so-called ‘first home buyers’ grants – they actually turn out to be grants to vendors of homes to first time buyers. Something similar happened when interest rates greatly reduced around the turn of the century.
The problem is the way the market operates. Maybe negative gearers and overseas investors are bidding up prices. There may also be a supply problem. We need to look at what is different about the Australian market as compared to more affordable markets overseas, or to times when our market was more affordable.
But increasing purchasing power just seems to ratchet up prices and that ultimately helps no one except the real estate industry and developers.
And Mumble gets paid for this analysis?
Victoria is the most pro-Labor state in the country (the other contender, at least at the last federal election, is Tasmania), the Abbott government is not popular and the government has had problems. Given polls like this, if someone forced you to nominate the likely winner on 29 November, it would make sense to go for Labor.
But let’s wait for more of them, closer to the event. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/newspoll_in_victoria/
Turnbull’s selling of fraudband reminds me of the droid from the original Judge Dredd movie
[Eat recycled food. It’s good for the environment and its “ok” for you.]
AstroTurfing 101 was going on in Newcastle FED UP campaign. Check the alternate messaging..
@MWhitbourn: Please note “supplementary messages” for anti-Labor Fed Up campaign included “Pay Up”, “Touch Up” & “Giddy Up” #ICAC http://t.co/2kYk1MiNyr
As long as I have been around PB (6 years or so), Guytaur has never claimed to be a Greens. He consistently explains his position as being between Labor and the Greens.
Pegasus@976
A slippery character indeed. 😛
[But increasing purchasing power just seems to ratchet up prices and that ultimately helps no one except the real estate industry and developers.]
Bingo.
What is and isn’t a soverign risk applied to the federal sphere:
https://theconversation.com/what-is-and-isnt-a-sovereign-risk-30612
[The use of the term “sovereign risk” by Trade Minister Andrew Robb to describe the federal budget stalling in the senate shows just how fast and loosely the term has come to be used.
……
Trade Minister Andrew Robb seems to be interpreting sovereign risk as the threat to foreign confidence in doing business with Australia, driven by perceptions of exchange rate uncertainty and potential instability in the Australian economy. This is seen as arising from anything which would prevent the government from implementing its budget measures, willy nilly.
Changes to government regulation which affect the profitability of particular businesses, as in the Renewable Energy Target removal have also entered the broad church of increasing sovereign risk. It may not be wise policy, but to argue that such measures amount to a sovereign risk is drawing a very long bow indeed.]
Latest on Grocon wall collapse
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/grocon-wall-collapse-hearing-could-see-55-witnesses-20140825-1083nk.html
It’s just business. The profits to be gained from the offshore and onshore mandatory detention of asylum seekers.
[The Australian government’s policy of mandatory detention for asylum seekers has benefited contractors by up to $10bn since mid-2007. I
From this estimate, offshore-related contracts were worth $859,363 a person, more than five times the spend for onshore-related contracts, which were worth $157,014 a person. Community detention related contracts were even cheaper again, at only $21,952 a person.]
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/25/-sp-mandatory-immigration-detention-is-a-billion-dollar-business-analysis
Well, that’s my lunch break over. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon 🙂
Peg
[Well, that’s my lunch break over.]
Stop complaining.
Reports tell me that you’ve done a Blueberry Muffin before lunch.
The term ‘Sovereign Risk’ is bandied about with reckless (or even ‘gay’) abandon. It seems to be applied to the actions of Labor governments (and now Labor oppositions) when they do anything that big business or its political wing (a.k.a. the Liberal Party) don’t like.
The term should be banished from the public lexicon until and unless there is an actual problem. Corporations (especially Newscorp) are perfectly free to bugger off to Mauritania, Chad or Tajikistan if they think they can do better there: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country_risk
Wow I go away for lunch look what happens 😆
bemused
It may help you if you remember I am not a member of a political party or rusted on. This means I try and vote to maximise the influence of the left side of politics without being stupid about it by voting for a group like Resistance.
The only sovereign risk is Hockey taking all our sovereigns.
Re Pegasus @981: for that much we could put them all up in penthouse suites in London or New York or send them on end to end luxury round the world cruises. It seems an awful lot of money to spend to punish people for being victims.
guytaur
I note from Peg’s last that you’re are a
[Greens]
Rather than a
[Green].
Is there some distinction I’m missing?
Ctar
You will have to ask Peg that one its a distinction new to me as well
Rundle unusually making sense to day in Crikey newsletter
[This is a government without a three-month plan, much less a three-year one, so far as anyone can detect — and the failure seems to be one of leadership. The strong sense is that ministers like Pyne and Cormann — absent of any co-ordination of a central message — are just playing it as individual operators. This is always the great danger for a Liberal Party, based on the creed of individualism — its ability to generate the sort of teeth-grinding commitment to solidarity in the last instance that Labor can produce is diminished by its very conception of the world. There is, at the moment, no clear picture of who’s actually running the show as we go into this fortnight, despite a series of rolling crisis meetings.
Maybe they have a deal ready to go, and this was all — given Mr Tony’s fireman metaphor — a smokescreen. But the strong suspicion is, while we’re having a metaphor clear-out, that they’re not the firemen come to put out the fire, they’re the strippers dressed as firemen, come to goose up Madison’s hens’ night. You can leave your hats on, fellas — you may not be staying long.]
[And Mumble gets paid for this analysis?
]
Mumbles analysis is and always has been very good. I think he is missing some big influence post GFC (not entirely sure but i think we got used to a house inflation based consumer world that has – or should have – finished) but his basic premise is very insightful.
sprocket
I hope David Rowe does not read that Rundle piece. Cabinets strippers will be too much.
guytaur@985
Yes, I’ve got it.
Writes like a Green, thinks like a Green, etc, but definitely isn’t a Green.
Makes perfect sense to me. 😀
@kit_lowe: MOODYS downgrade Western Australia to AA1 from AAA #ausbiz
guytaur
If you can’t make the bottom of the Garden or climb a tree may be the difference.
ctar
Yeah that could be it or chaining oneself to a coal loader
presser Brendan O Connor 24
@Puff/986
He’s also selling our Sovereign Risk via TPP agreements.
gt
😆
A coat loader in your garden?
😆
You’re really trying me out now.
“@ABCNews24: Live: Archbishop of Melbourne Denis Hart is being questioned at the inquiry into child sex abuse. Watch http://t.co/uCb4PpCldC”