ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor

ReachTEL provides further evidence of a slow trend back to the Coalition as the budget slump unwinds, but it also offers some very bad news for Joe Hockey.

The Seven Network tonight brings results from a ReachTEL poll showing Labor’s lead at 51-49, the narrowest it has been from ReachTEL since February. The only news on the primary vote at this stage is that Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. The poll was conducted last night, so this would have caught any effect of Clive Palmer’s China-baiting performance on Q&A on Monday. The poll also has bad for Joe Hockey, who was rated out of touch by 59% of respondents compared with only 26% who disagreed, with even Coalition voters breaking 50-24 against him. The poll also finds a 38-38 tie on whether the economy is headed in the right or the wrong direction. A question on the government’s data retention moves finds 64% opposed and only 20% in support. An Essential poll a fortnight ago had it at 51% and 39%, the difference perhaps being down to the wording of the questions.

UPDATE: Full results here. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up from 40.5% to 41.2%, Labor is up from 37.1% to 37.3%, the Greens are down from 10.3% to 9.3% and Palmer United is down from 8.2% to 6.7%. Also featured are personal ratings on the leaders, and a finding that 65.9% think Clive Palmer has a “negative impact on foreign relations”, against 12.4% for positive impact.

UPDATE (Morgan): Very little change in the latest Roy Morgan result, which as usual combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling, this time attaining a sample of 2691. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 37.5%, Labor is up half a point to 38.5%, the Greens are down half a point to 10.5% and Palmer United is down one to 4.5%, a possibly interesting result when taken together with ReachTEL and allowing for the fact that only half of the sample was polled after last week’s Q&A. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead on respondent-allocated preferences is down fractionally from 56-44 to 55.5-44.5, while the measure which allocates preferences as per the previous election result is steady at 54-46.

In a big week all round for polling, stay tuned for Newspoll tonight, Essential Research tomorrow and, I’m guessing, a state New South Wales result from Newspoll reasonably soon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,157 comments on “ReachTEL: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. CTar1

    My son has been working in Ballarat for the past few months. Has been coming home for weekends.
    Says it is nice enough, but bloody cold

  2. [ CTar1

    Posted Monday, August 25, 2014 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    Raaraa

    You went to Ballarat?

    Hearing of someone doing this is a first for me.

    I’ve known people who have left Ballarat but not the opposite.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    I once spent a year in Ballarat, I think it was on a Sunday.

  3. Kenneth Davidson:

    [The East West Link is another financial boondoggle in the making. The government does not intend to ever release its business case, despite its claim that the results show the $18 billion investment for the full road would yield a positive return to the state.

    The Labor opposition is as committed to the project as the government, but it pretends to oppose it because it realises that if it openly supports the link, it stands a good chance of losing up to three inner-Melbourne seats directly affected by the road to the Greens. Labor has adopted the position that if it wins the election, it won’t cancel the link if the contract is signed by the Coalition government before the election….

    The pity for Victorians is that the de facto grand coalition between Labor and the government excludes a collaboration with the Greens – the only party going into this election with a coherent public transport policy.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/labor8217s-east-west-link-8216policy8217-is-pathetic-20140820-1069pz.html#ixzz3BLZsMfXl

  4. Lizzie

    I can only hope Utopia (brilliant!) do an episode on a road tunnel being pushed by a dying state government. In the final scene it will be revealed that the real reason is so that the relevant state minister and his mates can get lucrative jobs as directors in the company financing the road after they lose their seats in parliament. Fiction of course. They should call the project North South link.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Refugees’ mental anguish in Australia’s “Guantanamo”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/refugees-mental-anguish-in-australias-guantanamo-20140824-107dal.html
    The government is digging in deep and talking tough over the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/government-digs-in-over-budget-20140824-107tvr.html
    Lenore Taylor says it is shifting from charm offensive to passive aggression.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/24/coalitions-budget-pitch-moves-from-charm-offensive-to-passive-aggression
    Parliament’s return will test crossbench will and Coalition backbench nerves.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/2014/aug/22/tony-abbott-climate-denial-weathervane-nihilism
    Surely not!!!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/24/john-elliott-may-stand-for-victorian-parliament
    Senator X has some proposals to strengthen the effects of the Direct Action policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nick-xenophons-direct-action-amendments-could-help-government-meet-emissions-target-study-20140824-107utk.html
    We need to call out Abbott’s climate nihilism. A good long essay.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/southern-crossroads/2014/aug/22/tony-abbott-climate-denial-weathervane-nihilism
    Ross Gittins – the short sighted mining boom makes no sense.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-boom-makes-little-sense-20140823-107o1q.html
    ASIC has bank managers in its sights.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/bank-managers-in-asics-sights-20140824-107su6.html
    Oh what a lovely culture war!
    https://theconversation.com/oh-what-a-lovely-culture-war-team-abbotts-ideological-battle-30475

  6. Section 2 . . .

    Why Abbott can’t hack it as Prime Minister.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/24/why-abbott-cant-hack-it-as-prime-minister/
    George Williams on the state of free speech in Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/time-to-take-stand-in-defence-of-free-speech-20140824-107rne.html
    George Pell’s logic on child sexual abuse id flawed. An interesting historical view.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/george-pells-logic-on-child-sex-abuse-is-flawed-20140824-107rgq.html
    Wendy Squires on her refusal on being asked to be a child’s godmother. A well written piece.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/taking-a-leap-of-faith-then-take-the-blinkers-off-20140822-106xb6.html
    Judy Courtin – the church is still more concerned for its reputation than for its victims.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-catholic-church-still-seems-more-concerned-for-its-reputation-than-for-its-victims-20140824-107rnj.html
    Time for a big change in economic thinking.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/8/25/global-news/time-copernican-revolution-economics
    Doctors say the booze lockout in Sydney is working but businesses count the cost. Stiff!
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/08/24/booze-lockout-helps-say-doctors-businesses-hit-hard/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/24/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-40/
    Bruce Petty takes us to the constipation Ward.

    Cathy Wilcox – inspirational quotes for Team Australia.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Rowe suggesting that Hockey and Cormann need a new image.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  7. lizzie

    I know that those working within the construction industry want the east west link to proceed. For them it is all a question of having work.

  8. Lizzie

    In the fictional Utopia episode the state opposition will support the same road, motivated by a dodgy union official who gets campaign money from the same finance company.

    Again, pure fiction.

  9. Socrates

    The govt is supposedly still proceeding with a rail link. Just a different one going to a different location.
    Sigh…………

  10. victoria

    The big firms use that as an excuse. There would be other work if so much money was not being directed towards freeways etc.

    I will never use a toll road on principle.

  11. Spent an icy weekend in Ballarat once watching my youngest play soccer (whilst holding tightly to the sides of the marquee to make sure it didn’t blow away).

    On the first day, I said to the woman in the coffee van, “Ah well, I suppose there are compensations” and she said, yes, there were.

    On the second day, I said, “OK, what are they?” and she said, “There aren’t any, I lied.”

  12. Lizzie

    You might as well use EW link. It is not strictly a toll road. It will be financed (by Victorian state taxpayers) by an “availability charge. That means the consortium gets the money if the road is open to traffic, regardless of how many use it. It is really a fancy way to say “pure debt finance”. That is why transport economists like Davidson (and myself) say it is such a bad deal.

  13. Victoria 865

    Yes but by changing it they have delayed it years (no contract this term of government, even though it was ready to go). Plus by no longer going right into the heart of the city it will not relieve the rail morning gridlock. Insane.

  14. I’m sorry the gentleman died, but this report is funny!

    [The son of Lord Attenborough, the winner of two Academy Awards as producer and director of 1983’s Ghandi, told the BBC he died on Sunday (local time).]

  15. [Unlike the beaming former Treasurer, he seems indecisive.]

    I assume the Treasurer referred to is Costello….sort of makes me take the rest of the article with a grain of salt..

  16. Regarding the Judy Courtin article about the catholic church being more concerned about its reputation than its victims, I think she is wrong. In my experience the catholic church hierarchy has always been more concerned about its bank balance than anything else. Keeping clergy out of jail comes second, followed by reputation third. Parishoners who put money on the plate are fourth, all others including victims are fifth. There were good reasons why I became an atheist. Have a good day all.

  17. Respect for others’ opinions is completely lacking in our government, and Morrison’s treatment of Gillian Trigg is a shining example.

    http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/scott-morrisons-treatment-of-gillian-triggs-is-endemic-of-the-governments-wider-problem-with-women-20140824-3e830.html

    [So, this last session was not only the first one in Canberra but was also the first time in living memory that a senior government minister and his officious offsider, the secretary of his department, decided that there would be no serious, respectful participation.

    Bowles’s behaviour has already drawn criticism for his belligerence during these hearings but last Friday, even he was outdone by his master, Scott Morrison, whose empathy bypass could only have been declared a resounding success once he embraced the role of Minister for Border Protection in this government.

    And that’s precisely what happened on Friday as time after time, Morrison interrupted Triggs or – if she dared to keep speaking – he just spoke over the top of her.

    Said one senior journalist last week: “I have not seen such a level of disrespect either in Senate estimates or any other kind of inquiry in my entire career.”]

  18. [GeorgeBludger 2m
    Faine on the ‘stalled’ budget: “Several ministers were out reading the riot act to an unruly electorate” LOL]

  19. [Paying tribute, Prime Minister David Cameron tweeted: “His acting in “Brighton Rock” was brilliant, his directing of “Gandhi” was stunning – Richard Attenborough was one of the greats of cinema.”]

    Sometimes even pommie politicians get it right.

    I have a minor quibble with his brother.

  20. victoria

    If 774 was really toeing the Liberal line, they would have banished Faine years ago. He’s getting more and more outspoken 😆

  21. lizzie

    Faine has been very outspoken of late. Soon he will get the title of grumpy old man!

    He is not happy with the east west link and changes to higher education

  22. If I were imprisoned without knowing the reasons, so unable to refute them, I would go mad within months. How can we support such treatment?

    [Several of the 44 refugees have now been incarcerated more than five years without charge in Melbourne and Sydney, and none are allowed to know the detail of the secret assessments used to justify their detention.

    The heavy psychological toll has led to extraordinary rates of depression, anxiety and self-harm, including one man repeatedly beating his head with a toilet door.

    The 42 men and two women have been officially recognised as refugees and almost universally report a history of torture and trauma.]

    http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/refugees-mental-anguish-in-australias-guantanamo-20140824-107dal.html

  23. Ain’t that sweeet!

    [“After the assault they took their shirts off, placed them around their heads and ran around the block,” Duty Superintendent Louise Jorgensen from NT Police said.

    “Helpfully one of the offenders had his name tattooed on his back, so it wasn’t hard to locate him.

    “We found him at a nearby bar and he was arrested.”
    . . .

    After the two men were arrested one of them went into a police van but the other one allegedly fought officers.

    “The offender that was in the van got out and helped the police put his mate inside,” Superintendent Jorgensen said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-25/man-with-name-tattooed-on-back-arrested/5693286

  24. [Before the 2013 election and since, it has been the contention of this blogger that the Australia’s political media (including, but not limited to, the Canberra press gallery) did not sufficiently scrutinise the Coalition about its suitability to govern this country.

    It is more than fair to say that it was excessively critical of the former Labor government and has been insufficiently critical (in the best sense) of this one. To compensate, political journalists are acting all surprised that the Abbott government turned out to be worse than they had expected it to be, when nobody had any right to expect an Abbott government to be anything but the combination of punchline and disaster like the US Presidency of George W. Bush. I’ve already gone after Michelle Grattan for this silly approach, but yet it persists from beyond the press gallery by two commentators who ought to know better.]

    http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/media-scrutiny-and-abbott-government.html

  25. During recent vicissitudes involving my wife and her employer – the NSW Public Service – I read voluminously many, many of their “Policy Directives”.

    These are designed to be available to anyone who cares to download them, and indeed are recommended to employees at various stages of the disciplinary process are shing lights of guidance as to employee rights, proper process and Public Service goals… er… “Mission statements”.

    The word and concept of “Team” – team membership, team building, team support, team rewards, team consultation, team rules and procedures – is used often.

    It’s all a crock of shit, of course.

    The same old principles apply: screw the worker, bully staff, quote your rules as applying to them (but not applying to you, the manager), threaten, cajole, abuse process and generally ignore policy with extreme prejudice.

    So much for “Teams”… a much abused word that seems to apply only to the captain, coaches and administrators, but not the players.

  26. Good Morning.

    The government still at it. Bullying the Senate works so well for them.

    Also it maybe a popcorn day Kathy Jackson at the RC again.

  27. “@latikambourke: QLD Palmer United Senator Glenn Lazarus tells @NewsTalk4BC he doesn’t believe the Govt’s negative talk on budget is as bad as they claim.”

  28. [Paying tribute, Prime Minister David Cameron tweeted: “His acting in “Brighton Rock” was brilliant, his directing of “Gandhi” was stunning – Richard Attenborough was one of the greats of cinema.”

    Sometimes even pommie politicians get it right.

    I have a minor quibble with his brother.]

    I thought he showed scant regard for occupational health and safety at Jurassic Park thereby exposing his staff and grandchildren to significant risk of injury particularly from raptors.

  29. “@latikambourke: PUP Senator Glenn Lazarus says Govt’s threat to raise taxes would be “political suicide.” @NewsTalk4BC”

    Well the “Brick” is Smarter than Cormann, Hockey and Joyce

  30. Conversation with hearing aid provider. Verbatim.

    “My husband has an appointment with you on 17 December. He has died so he won’t be keeping the appointment.”

    “Thank you. Have a good day.”

    I’m not sure she was even listening !!

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