BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. dave@900

    ‘fess

    Apparently he is back, also David Marr to counteract him.

    There was a time when I regarded Henderson as the sanest, least mad, of the conservative commentators. But then I was comparing him with Pies.

    Now Henderson appears to have completely lost his marbles and is an object of well deserved derision.

  2. Fran @888

    I think the problem with the ABC is that nobody except the Greens defends the concept of public broadcasting any more. Conservatives promote the idea that a taxpayer-funded broadcaster is supposed to be like a soccer game at school camp – everybody gets the ball. Every point of view, no matter how factually baseless, no matter how peripheral or irrelevant to the issue, must be represented on the public broadcaster.

    There is a “squeaky wheel gets the oil” dynamic at work with the ABC. Conservatives are by fat the most vocal in complaining about the ABC. Therefore the ABC bends over backwards to accommodate conservatives. It’s a silly strategy because it precludes quality journalism and it doesn’t even get conservatives off their backs. No matter what the ABC does, conservatives won’t be happy until it is either privatized or becomes a publicly funded imitation of the commercial networks.

  3. Nicholas@905

    Fran @888

    I think the problem with the ABC is that nobody except the Greens defends the concept of public broadcasting any more.

    What utter rubbish. Another Green delusion.

    The ALP supports public broadcasting.

  4. Diogenes@881

    Just Me

    If it is not defended by the public against hostile forces, and its independence strengthened, it certainly will.


    I find attitudes to the ABC to be a good barometer of how rabid, biased and intolerant a person is. If you go to our sister sites of the Right, they also want the ABC shut down because it’s full of Lefties who detest Abbott and are trying to overthrow his democratically elected government.

    I must be slap bang in the middle, I love the ABC. Though I must admit I only ever listen to radio, never to TV, except for occasionally watching some political programs such as Press Club speeches on the computer.

    And here I thought I was to the left of Gandhi!

  5. [There was a time when I regarded Henderson as the sanest, least mad, of the conservative commentators.]

    And I thought you didn’t take ice.

  6. Australia needs more business people like Ian Dunlop to speak up:

    [Corporate Australia is in complete denial about climate change, according to former fossil fuels executive and energy commentator Ian Dunlop.

    Mr Dunlop, a former chairman of the Coal Association, said business should be condemning the chairman of the Prime Minister’s Business Advisory Council (BAC), Maurice Newman, for claiming the Earth is cooling…

    Mr Dunlop said not a single voice had been raised by peak business about the appointment of so-called climate change deniers to advise government.

    “The appointment of Maurice Newman, Dick Warbuton and David Murray are evidence of the real problem that we have,” Mr Dunlop said.

    “The Government is in complete denial on this and unfortunately I believe that most of corporate Australia is in the same position.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-15/corporate-australia-in-denial-over-climate-change-dunlop-says/5674122

  7. [847
    ruawake

    The thing with most disabled parking spots is not where they are its because they are wider than usual. This allows doors to be fully opened and legs to be swung out.]

    Both features are important. Not all mobility limitations are wheelchair dependent.

  8. Just Me/ru

    Before I had my hip done, I reached the stage where I couldn’t walk more than about 50 metres, so I applied for a disabled sticker.

    Got one which entitled me to park twice as long as the nominated time, but didn’t let me park in the designated disabled spot (as I didn’t need the space).

    So it was useless.

  9. [If memory serves me correctly, ShowsOn has an MP3 of Rudd’s Sorry speech on his iPod.]
    I did have it as a video, but that old iPod no longer works. It was the old iPod classic that had a hard disc in it, but the hard disc died.

  10. [There was a time when I regarded Henderson as the sanest, least mad, of the conservative commentators. But then I was comparing him with Pies.]

    Nah! You were comparing him with yourself, and coming up trumps.

    Everybody else had long given up on Ackerman.

    And you’re still stuck there, pretending you’re not Gerard.

    The only thing you’ve gotten over, over the years, is that it’s not fair to judge people by the way their children have turned out; and that’s it.

  11. Fran said ….

    [ On the matter of the ABC.

    Like many here, I am scandalised by the overall quality of news and current affairs at the ABC. The reality is that the ABC has been in steady decline since at least the days of Richard Alston. Mark Colvin and Sara Ferguson continue to do a professional job but for the most part, it’s a wasteland out there. It is little better than the Murdoch in-house organs and in its present form probably is a net negative in public discourse because it launders memes to audiences who would turn up their noses if they saw them in the Murdoch Press. ]

    Exactly.

    [ There are two problems with defunding though. Firstly, the ABC is more than just news and current affairs, albeit that this is what most of us tragics see it as. It does produce some quality documentaries and children’s programs and underwrites local productions of film, theatre and music. ]

    As I keep pointing out – it’s been turned into little more than a geriatric entertainment network – one suitable for those scandalized by programs like “Deadwood” and “Game of Thrones” … but at least it does play some lovely kids programs that the grandparents can turn on whenever they have the grand kids come and visit.

    [ Secondly, the reason that news and current affairs is in the debauched condition it’s in is principally due to an ongoing culture war that started during the Howard era with his desire to rid Australia, as he saw it, of ‘cultural elites’ whom he regarded as hostile to the conservatives. This ramped up considerably during the period of the FTA argy bargy and of course during the Iraq escalation post 2003. The ALP, to its discredit, did nothing to restore the ABC to its former health and instead of installing robust and competent board members and creating bulwarks against future coalition attacks, Rudd pandered to the right adopting ‘bipartisanship’ in appointments, sending all the wrong messages. ]

    Howard fucked the ABC right royally. And yes, the ALP – especially under Rudd – completely failed to see this, and did nothing to restore the balance.

    [ When the ALP regime finally fell in 2013, the work of debauching the organisation was almost complete. The LNP is poised to administer the coup de grace. ]

    Yes.

    [ While I can certainly understand the frustration, and in my darker moments toy with the idea of Schadenfreude, in the end, for avowing lefties to support this would be tantamount to rewarding those who vandalised the organisation in the first place. That surely can’t be what we’d want. ]

    Yes it is. By the time Abbott and Scott are finished with it, the ABC will be unredeemable.

    The best option left is to acknowledge this fact and move on to something better.

  12. [Fortunately you can download it from youtube for posterity.]

    I remember driving to work that day listening to him deliver that speech, bawling my eyes out. It was truly a defining moment for our nation IMO.

  13. [SO

    Fortunately you can download it from youtube for posterity.]
    I don’t want Australian parliamentary broadcast channel rubbish. I have the original ABC1 broadcast stream.

  14. Bemused @ 906

    You’d have to admit that the Labor Party is tepid in its support for public broadcasting. They don’t confront the conservatives’ constant attacks on the ABC. They don’t point out that it isn’t the job of the ABC to take conservatives out for an ice-cream cone every time they get annoyed by a story about climate science, gay mariage, asylum-seekers as human beings, vast inequality in the funding of schools. The ALP rarely sees a fight it doesn’t run away from Brave Sir Robin style.

    They have become a hollowed out technocratic blancmange of a political party. They won’t make a forceful argument for public goods. They lack self-belief. They lose their nerve at critical moments. They second-guess themselves all the time. They focus-group themselves into a constant state of masterly inactivity.

  15. Nicholas@925

    Bemused @ 906

    You’d have to admit that the Labor Party is tepid in its support for public broadcasting. They don’t confront the conservatives’ constant attacks on the ABC. They don’t point out that it isn’t the job of the ABC to take conservatives out for an ice-cream cone every time they get annoyed by a story about climate science, gay mariage, asylum-seekers as human beings, vast inequality in the funding of schools. The ALP rarely sees a fight it doesn’t run away from Brave Sir Robin style.

    They have become a hollowed out technocratic blancmange of a political party. They won’t make a forceful argument for public goods. They lack self-belief. They lose their nerve at critical moments. They second-guess themselves all the time. They focus-group themselves into a constant state of masterly inactivity.

    More Greens gibberish.

  16. Player One
    [More bemused gibberish.]

    More Labor-supporter gibberish.

    I can’t for the life of me work it out. Why try your best to put your supporters offside?

    Specially when your PV alternates between 34 and oblivion.

  17. Player One@929

    bemused@928

    Player One@927



    More Greens gibberish.



    More bemused gibberish.



    Piss off moron.


    How about posting something without abuse for a change?

    You obviously either don’t read or don’t understand what I post and respond with you customary sarcasm.
    So I have no compunction about telling you to piss off.

  18. confessions @ 918: That may explain why our government seems to get so much of its advice from impotent old men: they spend too much energy obsessing about leaners, and don’t have enough left to be real lifters any more.

  19. [ I can’t for the life of me work it out. Why try your best to put your supporters offside? ]

    Because people like bemused are exactly what I find so offensive about the ALP. Including (sadly) many of those in my local branch.

    Pompous, ignorant and totally out of touch. They actively drive people away from the ALP.

    I am one of the youngest members in my local branch.

    How sad is that?

  20. [866
    dave

    >Do we have to import all our journalists from the BBC or PBS ( USA) to get decent ones?

    Not at all – for under $100 pa you can get a VPN…]

    Mine costs $40 pa. Money well spent.

    […and access the BBC’s version of iView and also download stuff – plus heaps of other channels including PBS.]

    Plus Canada’s CBS, and some stuff on YouTube is also geoblocked.

  21. Player One

    [I am one of the youngest members in my local branch.

    How sad is that?]

    Are you saying you are a member of the ALP, or a member of the Greens?

    From bemused’s story, he was a very young person when he joined the ALP. Somewhere round 1970-1, if I’m not mistaken. He even ran for parly.

    I have no idea why he has it in for the Greens considering his background.

    To me, any bastard who runs for parliament has an automatic feather in their cap.

    Especially if it’s a bastard I support.

  22. pedant:

    I thought it was quite funny. Props to the minister for working a serious issue into his agony aunt column in that way.

  23. The ABC is worth saving and is not irredemeemable, not until it’s broken up and sold off. Another reason why Abbott must be restricted to one term. It will be in need of repair after one Abbott term. The starting point will have be a cleanout of political warriors and Abbott political appointees from the board.

  24. SO

    [I don’t want Australian parliamentary broadcast channel rubbish. I have the original ABC1 broadcast stream.]

    Am I correct in assuming that privileged broadcast is only proffered to citizens who have been quoted in Hansard?

  25. confessions @ 937: I liked it too, it reminded me of the words of the late, great Peter Cook (the satirist, not the Senator): “Vote for Mr E L Wisty, and beautiful naked women will come and dance for you.”

  26. kezza2@936

    Player One

    I am one of the youngest members in my local branch.

    How sad is that?


    Are you saying you are a member of the ALP, or a member of the Greens?

    From bemused’s story, he was a very young person when he joined the ALP. Somewhere round 1970-1, if I’m not mistaken. He even ran for parly.

    I have no idea why he has it in for the Greens considering his background.

    To me, any bastard who runs for parliament has an automatic feather in their cap.

    Especially if it’s a bastard I support.

    I ran in a safe Liberal seat because I drew the short straw. An interesting experience, but not one I really sought.

    I joined the ALP in 1968 I think.

    Greens are just the latest minor annoyance trying to peel votes off the ALP rather than attack the libs and win votes from them.

    Most of what the Greens have to say is just recycled stuff I have heard before. It was the same with the Democrats.

    I am currently campaigning for our local State Candidate, Jennifer Yang. https://www.facebook.com/Jen4MW

  27. zoomster

    I laughed. 🙂

    Some of the rules are almost Kafkaesque. If you don’t develop a sense of the absurd when dealing with this stuff you will quickly crumple.

  28. Steve777@938

    The ABC is worth saving and is not irredemeemable, not until it’s broken up and sold off. Another reason why Abbott must be restricted to one term. It will be in need of repair after one Abbott term. The starting point will have be a cleanout of political warriors and Abbott political appointees from the board.

    Notions of selling off are breathtakingly stupid.

    Once its gone, it will never be replaced by anything like it.

    All the broadcasting equipment, transmitters, studios etc would go for a song to maates and would cost a fortune to replace.

    And what of all the IP in the rich program archive the ABC has? That would be trashed and is irreplaceable.

    Those who talk glibly about getting rid of the ABC in a fit of pique are just vandals and unbelievably stupid. They are Tone and Rupe’s little helpers.

  29. [
    I thought it was quite funny. Props to the minister for working a serious issue into his agony aunt column in that way.
    ]

    confessions

    Not sure if you are aware, but apparently that Agony Aunt column from Alex Salmond was in fact parody done in the Magazine Viz. Hence the incorrect name.

  30. [ Those who talk glibly about getting rid of the ABC in a fit of pique are just vandals and unbelievably stupid. They are Tone and Rupe’s little helpers. ]

    You seem to be a little bemused here. The talk about selling off the ABC is currently being led by Mark Scott.

    It is just that some of us here foresaw the inevitable, and hope that something good might come of people eventually realizing how badly they have been conned.

  31. Friday is “That’ll Do” night.

    Why not? Joe has provided most of us will a much-needed fillip.

    What a drongo. Can’t bat. Can’t bowl. Never had any talent, except for chucking tantrums when he didn’t get his way.

    Where’s his Mummy now?

  32. I’d like to see the ABC sold, or someone try to.

    The full supperating boil that is Australian media would become apparent.

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