Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition’s favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [ CTar1
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 10:17 am | Permalink

    My suggestion that ‘left overs’ go to Argentina workable but in retrospect, maybe the Congo even better (they could take Alsatian dogs an guns with them and enslave the locals). ]

    Belgium very much went to the Congo.

    Niall Ferguson in his recent book “The War of the World” points out that many people talk about “poor little Belgium” and its treatment by the Germans, few mention Belgium’s atrocities in the Congo.

    Ferguson says they were responsible for at least 8 Million deaths out of a population of 16 Million. It include the cutting off of the hands of natives families who failed to meet work quotas. This occurred before WW1, WW2 and up to the bloody war in the 1960’s.

  2. mari

    [First call when I get home is the doctor, re my pulled muscle, will be glad to be home]

    Get in quick before the co-payment.

  3. Mari

    Welcome Back. Just remember make sure you have no brown paper bags in your luggage. Central Coast to Newcastle seems to be ICAC Central

  4. [ Burgey
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 11:27 am | Permalink

    …..Now this stuff with Hockey. The government seems completely out of touch with people. Surely even Labor can’t f*** this up. ]

    Voters are currently drifting back to the tories in the polls, notwithstanding the pain being inflicted on them by those same tories, who intend to go much much further.

    You cannot “protect” people from voting against their own interests.

    They may well do it again.

  5. It’s definitely time for a National Integrity Commission – I’m as disgusted by Labor as Liberal on this issue. Can’t tell me NSW has the monopoly on corruption.

  6. [He’s the fat little wog kid,]

    I went to the same primary school as Joe. He wasn’t little and he was loud. I have a particular mental image in my mind (circa 1975) to this very day.

  7. Joe Hockey with a few ill time comments regarding poor people and cars might have just cruelled his prime ministerial ambitions forever.

  8. vic

    [“I give away $6.5k a week!” Jeff McCloy says. Not specifically to the Libs, mind you. #ICAC]

    May be I’ll visit him in jail and see if he’ll cut me in on the action.

  9. “@AustralianLabor: “There is no doubt in my mind [the govt.] should throw the Budget in the bin and start again.” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  10. “@AustralianLabor: “[This Government] have no mandate to cut the pension. This Government has no mandate to increase petrol taxes.” @billshortenmp #auspol”

  11. Victoria

    yes it will be gald to be home

    Mike H

    Yes I will be quick with the doctor


    My brown paper bags would be empty now I can assure you

  12. Victoria

    yes it will be gald to be home

    Mike H

    Yes I will be quick with the doctor


    My brown paper bags would be empty now I can assure you

  13. [Niall Ferguson in his recent book “The War of the World” points out that many people talk about “poor little Belgium” and its treatment by the Germans, few mention Belgium’s atrocities in the Congo.]

    The treatment of the Congolese was a major pre WW1 scandal and was heavily reported at the time even despite the communications limitations of the time. Unfortunately, everything of the era gets overshadowed by WW1. Heart of Darkness by Joseph Conrad had the Congo as its etting for exmaple.

    It has to be remembered that at the time of the atrocities, the Congo was not a colony of Belgium but the personal property of Leopold II – who from what one reads would have been a particularly loathsome human being even without the Congo. It was only after the scandal that it became a Belgian colony – about 1908 the same time as Leopold’s death. As events were to show in 1960, the Belgians didn’t do colonialism well.

  14. Rabbott said a few bad apples in NSW state Labor indicated the Labor party was rotten to the core, state and federal.

    Have any journos asked Rabbott about the growing numbers of Libs falling by the way side due to ICAC?

    ABC Online they mention ‘former’ Liberal MP’s but…….

    LtdNews said they had been suspended.

    [THE NSW Liberal government is reeling after two suspended MPs were forced to resign from parliament]

  15. He obviously thinks that this technicality clears him of any wrongdoing

    [McCloy acknowledges he paid ‘false’ invoices to help Liberal Party but drew funds from non-developer entity McCloy Administration P/L.]

  16. [“There is no doubt in my mind [the govt.] should throw the Budget in the bin and start again.]

    The Senate are holding the bin and prepared to catch the budget when it is thrown in.

  17. vic

    [ Perhaps the media could get McCloy to shout them lunch]

    The Commission has an anonymous dob-in spot on its site.

    You should send your suggestion in. 😀

  18. [ tielec
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    Another member caught up in this – at what point do we just throw our hands up and declare almost every NSW politician a crook? ]

    That would be wrong and counterproductive, IMO –

    Those up in front of ICAC and anyone else up to no good deserve exactly what they get.

    Labor had Obeid and three or four others involved. That Obeid had so much power with Labor is a huge worry that has been partly addressed but needs more work. We also need a credible Leader, not the current one IMO.

    The tories have a corrupt “group” centred on the Newcastle area and the Sydney area, Australian Water Holdings etc. There also appears to be linkages to the Federal Party side of the libs.

    But ICAC is doing what it should and voters across the board have to insist it being further strengthened AND funded to monitor the Ministerial Code of Conduct and this needs to be put in place prior to the looming election.

    Tut Tuting achieves nothing, voters have to insist the changes be made.

    If the appeal on the constitutionality of the developer ban on political donations is successful the whole thing become high farce.

    Even more so voter across the board will need to stand up and be counted. There is no free ride on this.

    If people in other states think its not going on in their areas then they are just fooling themselves.

    The following article by Rob Oakeshott recently also describes what is going on Federally and apparently, legally. Gittens said similar stuff earlier this week –

    [ Rob Oakeshott: How big business hijacked parliament

    The rules are simple: fight the bastards, bankroll the other side of politics, cause them damage until they learn to ignore treasury and finance advice and start listening instead to that grubby leveller in politics – money.

    Whether it’s tax or carbon or gaming, this is the policy inertia of Australia today. Money is beating our long-term standard of living to death. It has sent many necessary policy reforms to the doghouse, and it keeps many others on the short chain.
    Our key decisions for the future of Australia are now being outsourced at a level never before seen. Parliamentary democracy is going through its own sort of privatisation.

    Bigger dollars come into the party coffers at exactly the same time as less and less of the necessary work gets done. We are trapping ourselves. ]

    Again, its all out the US playbook.

  19. Bbph

    This on twitter sums up the state of play

    [Poor Abbott, prancing and stunting around the world with #MH17 & #ISIS for poll boost, smash by Hockey’s 30secs of stupidity on the poor]

  20. Not sure we do live in a dark age of corruption. Rather, I think it’s always gone on (and sometimes been much worse) but only now is it being exposed.
    You only have to read a book like “Wild Men of Sydney” or research the Askin years, or look at all the monstrous red-brick Apartment blocks Councils allowed during the 60s and 70s, to realise that things were probably a lot worse in the past.
    It’s the softer forms of corruption that are the most dangerous (e.g. the revolving door between govt and business) that are a lot worse than money in brown paper bags.

  21. [Rob Oakeshott: How big business hijacked parliament]

    I don’t think it is just big business – it is sectional self interest – and it extends through superannuation, capital gains tax, private school funding, university funding, immigration policy, the lot.

  22. Victoria @1085

    It does sum it up well – Abetz and Brandis late week stuck their foot in it – Abetz comments would have resonated with some people, Brandis on meta data was dealing with an issue that is fairly esoteric – but Hockey with cars and poor people hit the jackpot with an issue that resonates with everybody.

  23. bbph

    I opined yesterday that surely Hockey is not that silly. Yet here we are. Unless he is deliberately sabotaging team Liberal

  24. [or look at all the monstrous red-brick Apartment blocks Councils allowed during the 60s and 70s, to realise that things were probably a lot worse in the past.]

    In the 60s, several building inspectors went to jail because they turned a blind eye to developers adding storeys on apartment buildings. To combat such things, the Wran government introduced very good environmental planning legislation in about 1978. By the end of the Wrna years, various “Amendment Acts” were brought in and the planning system had gradually more elastic and all the lines have blurred – willingness to blur the lines – legally – will open the system to undue influence and corruption.

  25. [Unless he is deliberately sabotaging team Liberal]

    I doubt it – accept it for what it is – a huge brainfart that will just waft around and around ….

  26. Ahh USA still very racial country:

    Retweeted by sortius
    Matthew Keys ‏@MatthewKeysLive 9m

    KSDK footage shows #Ferguson police lobbing tear gas at Al Jazeera news crew –

  27. Harriet Wran: I’m surprised that N2T hasn’t been on yet to mention that Liberals only take paper bags but Labor / Leftist people kill capitalist struggling illicit drug business people.

  28. CTar1

    Shorten was asked in his presser earlier re Harriet Wran. He replied wtte that he doesnt know what has happened and it was in the hands of police. In the meantime, Ms Wran has stated that she will be pleading not guilty to charges. Also been reported that she is addicted to the drug Ice. If so, she is already stuffed. This drug is the worst of the worst

  29. UN-effing-believable

    35+ years of strong and strengthening science means nothing to these clowns. when questioned on this (as he no doubt will be) abbott will use to claim that ‘there’s lots of uncertainty’ – abetz got crucified for his abortion-breast cancer link ‘science’ and abbott and his clowns should similarly be lambasted. but they won’t. because australians by-and-large don’t want to accept the science if it means any change in lifestyle or costs more if they don’t change. If scotland gets independence I’m heading back to the ancestral lands – I have as much claim as other ethnic groups claiming ancestral land after a long absence – in fact my mob have been out of scotland only 1/10th of the time they’re claiming.

    the fact that this clown is one of the senior advisers should be of concern – but then again Pell was/is abbott’s other trusted adviser, so a grasp on reality or ethics isn’t a prerequisite.

  30. Rudd goes overseas and the stories in the Fawning Corporate Media are about him complaining about his meals on the aircraft.
    Tone goes overseas (and does nothing) and he’s portrayed as a global statesman.
    Tone knows that if he provides colour and movement the MSM will look after him. The only question is whether that will be enough at the next election. He’s gonna be tap dancing for a hell of a long time.

  31. In Unions v NSW, the High Court found the following invalid.

    [96D Restrictions on persons from whom donations can be accepted

    (1) It is unlawful for a political donation to a party, elected member, group, candidate or third-party campaigner to be accepted unless the donor is:
    (a) an individual who is enrolled on the roll of electors for State elections, on the roll of electors for federal elections, or on the roll of electors for a local government election, or

    (b) an entity that has a relevant business number.

    (2) A relevant business number is:
    (a) an Australian Business Number (ABN), or

    (b) any other number allocated or recognised by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission for the purposes of identifying the entity.]

    Developers have a different section applicable to them but they must have a chance of winning based on freedom of speech/political communication. Question will probably be the extent to which such freedom is curbed by countering the vice of corrupt influence to which the developers’ section appears to be addressed.

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