Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition’s favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Joe Hockey should just admit his blooper.]

    He can’t. His type don’t. They’ve made the political atmosphere so toxic over the past few years that the slightest mistake, verbal vagueness, minor exaggeration or just a gaffe has to be defended to the death.

    If one of their own enemies admits error the Joes of this world lambast them heckle, sneer and condemn. We hear about “dysfunction”, “children in the sandpit”, ruination, economic devastation and so on, for days and days.

    So, when it’s their turn, they resist until the last. They deny, cite context, accuse, walk out, or – at least in the early stages – just try to crash through, like Joe is doing now.

    Abbott will be so pleased. Th Murdoch press is running a slow burn vendetta against Joe Hockey on Abbott’s behalf. Poor Joe, long Abbott’s punching bag, still doesn’t get it. Abbott has been sucker-punching Joe for decades, since uni days. Joe just comes back for more.

    He’s the fat little wog kid, the first-born son who was spoilt rotten for his troubles. And when he didn’t get what he wanted, he chucked a tanty. This is confirmed by none other than Joe himself, in Madonna King’s book, now thankfully forgotten and gracing the remainder bins of bookshops all over Australia. Again, according to the book, Joe has always been a dupe for bullies. He’s a classic case of the abused morphing into the abuser.

    Put it all together and you have either “Happy Joe” or “Grumpy Joe”. He doesn’t do nuance. As long as he gets his way he’s “Happy”. When he doesn’t, Tanty Man comes out and he switches to “Grumpy”. As soon as he gets a bit of opposition to his “charm offensive” he starts threatening the polity at large: “Give me what I want, or the nation gets it!”.

    Abbott must thank his lucky stars daily for having Joe along to deflect the criticism of his government. Joe does not realize that when Abbott feels strong enough, he’ll pull the rug from under his old dupe and take his Budget away.

    And Joe will just nod and accept it, as he has always. Poor fella.

  2. [Boris
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 7:29 am | Permalink

    The poor do not spend as much on petrol, they are not lifters,they need to pay more.]

    ‘Boris’ – As in Johnson I assume.

  3. CTar1

    [ Belgium -It’s a poor excuse for a country. They should just dissolve it and merge the relevant bits with Holland, France and Germany. ]

    Wasn’t it part of The Netherlands – one or part(s) of states/ provinces which comprises The Netherlands / modern day Holland and created to establish a buffer against the then area aggressive super power, ie France ?

  4. dave

    [created to establish a buffer against the then area aggressive super power]

    Sounds right. My suggestion that ‘left overs’ go to Argentina workable but in retrospect, maybe the Congo even better (they could take Alsatian dogs an guns with them and enslave the locals).

  5. Belgium wasn’t organised into a nation state until 1830. Before then, the area was ruled at various times by the Dutch, French, Spanish Hapsburgs and Austrian Hapsburgs, with some independent or semi indepenent city states along the way.

  6. Its Alan Bond again

    “@Kate_McClymont: Hard to imagine that Hilton Grugeon is a decisive, competent businessman as he can’t recall even the most general details #icac”

  7. “@MWhitbourn: #ICAC commish: “I think you should be aware that saying…you don’t recall it…doesn’t deny that the proposition is true.””

  8. “@Kate_McClymont: After a talking-to form the Commish about “don’t recall” answers are not denials, Grugeon now saying he did NOT donate $10k 2 campaign #icac”

  9. “@MWhitbourn: And has floppy hair “@TJ_Fowles: @MWhitbourn Perhaps Owen’s media adviser also says “I’m awfully sorry,”10 times per hour.” #HughGrant #ICAC”

    Bowen presser now

  10. BK @ 965

    About Seattle, it was four years ago at the start of this month that a police officer in Seattle pulled up at the lights and saw a homeless man walk past minding his own business. The cop got out screamed at the homeless guy then shot him dead within seconds. Just like that.

    Someone leaked some copies of the police private newsletter (its called The Guardian) to some people concerned with Social Justice in Seattle and the stuff in those newsletter was very disturbing and scary, Eventually some of it was published by a seattle paper – The Stranger – its politics section – Slog.

    This is from one article (I have the links to the original leaked Guardian articles somewhere, but I dunno if they still work):

    Then there’s a November article by Officer Clayton Powell, who works in the South Precinct, discussing the phrase “mother f**ker,” which, he argues, is a “commonly used street term showing endearment to something or someone.” He names a couple more endearing terms: “bitch” and “n***a.” (Asterisks are his.)

    “If I can communicate with someone in their primary language… it makes me a more effective officer,” writes Powell. “Learn to accept and appreciate the direct method of in-­your-­face communication.”

    If it was satire it’d be comedy gold.

  11. shellbell

    [Lawyer Gary Rumble led the 2012 DLA Piper review, which uncovered more than 700 plausible cases of abuse dating back to the 1950s.]

    Joe whatshisname on 24 refers to him as ‘Mr Gary Rumble’ – they’ll have a complaint from him by now saying it’s ‘Dr Gary Rumble’.

    It must have been so easy for the DLA Piper partners to pick him to lead the investigation.

    He has the most amazing ability to make the most innocuous thing sound as though it’s an imminent threat to the life of every human on the planet. I doubt he’s ever talked to anyone who didn’t think ‘Jesus, what a flogger’.

  12. [Bushfire @BushfireBill

    Bolt jumps shark, plus mother whale and calf. Describes fellow News #Auspol columnist Malcolm Farr(!) as a “Leftist”. ]

  13. “@Valentine702: @702sydney Afternoons today will try find a poor person with a car…difficult I know – but maybe poor people have social media…”

  14. guytaur

    [but maybe poor people have social media…]

    ‘Poor people’ have a real requirement for access to ‘social media so they can ‘video conference’ rather than drive a car they shouldn’t be able to afford anyway.

  15. CTar1

    [‘Poor people’ h… they can ‘video conference’ rather than drive a car ]
    They will once FTTH is rolled out………………oh right.

  16. Boerwar 908/909

    The ‘eye of a needle’ = ‘gate’ thesis, to explain Jesus’s cryptic line about rich men and camels, is discredited.

    More likely explanation is that in Aramaic ‘gamla’ could mean ‘camel’ or ‘rope’.

    I shouldn’t comment on Mr Hockey’s heavenly fate, but he is selling the left plenty of rope.

  17. The Abbott Government’s chief business adviser says too much time has been spent focusing on global warming and as a result Australians are “ill prepared” to deal with the prospect of global cooling.
    Maurice Newman, who has been vocal about his climate change scepticism, attacks governments, including the former Labor government, for pursuing “green gesture politics” by introducing carbon price signals in an opinion piece for the Murdoch-owned News Corp publication The Australian.
    He likened the measures to “primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices to appease the gods”.
    Mr Newman warns in the article that global peace, energy and food supply are all at risk if the world does indeed cool. He says the views expressed are his own.

    Read more:

    He says the views expressed are his own.

    What an absolute classic!

  18. Abbott’s in more strife than Flash Gordon. If the best he can do is a small bounce on the back of manically exploiting the MH17 tragedy and whipping up some home grown terrorism hysteria, it’s pretty apparent people have already switched off from him.

    It started with the 18C stuff, went through Knights and Dames, then onto the Budget. Now this stuff with Hockey. The government seems completely out of touch with people. Surely even Labor can’t f*** this up.

  19. @Trog/1018

    What happened to Tony Abbott’s promise of hundred dams that would help with the water supply which in tern help with the food supply? And perhaps with Tony Abbott’s negativity, local farmers are being outbought by imports (by companies like Woolworths and Coles using Food from Italy etc).

    Maurice Newman words mean sh!t all, when Tony Abbott was smashing the local industry in favor of imports.

  20. Oh Telstra is on the whole Anti-Piracy band wagon too:

    Retweeted by Josh Taylor
    David Ramli ‏@Davidramli 2m

    “Piracy of content is theft and you can’t justify it,” says Telstra CEO David Thodey. Pricing differences no excuse, he adds.

    S F U Telstra.

  21. Burgey

    BCassidy this morning on ABC radio that whilst Hockey et al are stuffing up, Abbott is doing very well. He has done good re the MH17 and now the terrorism issue. Cassidy seems to think that Abbott is deliberately getting ahead of the US on the possiblity of troops going into Iraq, cos They are more aligned with the rethugs attiitude rather than Obama.
    Mind you i dont believe Australians are generally aligned with the rethugs

  22. Yaaaaay, the Kremlin has finally noticed Tony.

    [MOSCOW, August 13. /ITAR-TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry slammed in its statement on Wednesday Australian authorities’ accusations………..“On the whole, It seems that burdened by their own oversized ambitions, some members of the current Australian government have completely lost an adequate picture of the developments in Ukraine and around it,” the statement said.]

  23. CTar1

    With Dave ,so far, dodging him Tones will be reassured that someone….anyone has noticed him. How long can they stay in the Cobra room , long enough to last till TA’s departure ?

  24. Mayor McCloy has admitted that he paid $10 grand EACH to the two Liberal candidates Andrew Cornwell & Tim Owen as well as HughThomson #icac

  25. [McCloy is being asked about Cornwell’s evidence that McCloy handed over $10k in an envelope in his Bentley. He’s not quibbling. #ICAC]

  26. Just been looking at the ICAC site, specifically at past recommendations to the DPP.

    There are about 30 or so concluded cases, many of them involving false evidence.

    The sentences include full time jail (longest sentence 2 years; many about 6-9 months with 3 months non parole), good behaviour bonds of about 2 years, community service orders of 200-400 hours, suspended sentences, home detentions.

    Based on this, Owens would not be manifesting undue or irrational anxiety if the thought has crossed his mind that he will end up in jail for a year or two or more.

    I couldn’t see any case which included conspiring to mislead ICAC, and IMHO this aspect has the potential to inspire a judge to throw at least a medium sized book at Owens.

  27. [McCloy did not tell #ICAC about the cash he gave to Swansea MP Garry Edwards during his private interview, nor the $10k to Tim Owen.]

  28. ICAC is getting very interesting

    In Singapore now only 3 more days and will be home

    Don’t think Joe Hockey would not like UK with all their wind turbines, including over 100 off the coast in Wales. The UK have certainly taken to them all over the country.

  29. In reference to the camel and the needle gough1’s explanation was absolutely spot on.

    [The phrase in the bible is self explanatory.

    The “needle” as a gate was christian revisionism over time to allow rich men into heaven.]

    The attempt by christian revisionists to mangle Aramaic to try to get ‘rope’ is a similar tactic which has failed.

  30. Both parties in NSW have so many crooks that they should be officially labelled as criminal organizations and not allowed to consort. 🙂

  31. Most of you are going on about Joe’s arguments being illogical, but if you look at them from the perspective of wanting a more regressive tax system the logic of his arguments become apparent.
    It’s the overriding theme of the budget, a much less progressive tax system.

  32. Barney in Saigon

    You may be right on the method but his the way he presents it is disgraceful and appalling.

    Since when did this country target the elderly as an example who shall have and who shall have not.

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