Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition’s favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all. Regarding Hockey’s “they don’t drive” comment on poor people, he has stuck to his lie, but with careful qualifiers.
    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/aug/13/joe-hockey-defends-his-poor-people-dont-drive-very-far-comments

    First, he talks about people on benefits, not those working on low incomes. Second, he quotes data for household income, not individual income. So what? Most high (taxable) income households would have both adults working, and so would drive further. But many high wealth individuals may have low taxable income, which distorts the stats. Verdict: you can find a definition of poor people that suits Hockey’s claim, but it would be false in practice.

    Possum Comitus – a job for you!

  2. We heard A lot about “precision” and “pin point” targeting during the Gaza conflict. But after reading this article about a killed bomb disposal guy you have to ask how !!!!! pinpoint can you be dropping 1 ton and half ton bombs into crowded urban areas ?

    [‘My wife thinks I will come home in a box’ – and three days later Gaza bomb disposal expert was dead………He spoke to the Guardian just days before he was killed by a 500kg explosive.

    In Beit Lahiya, he defused a 1,000kg bomb that had landed in a bike repair shop. Hossein Rabieh Salem, the 48-year-old owner, had been sleeping for several nights with his family ………Jazia Filfil, 60, remembered how, as the dust began to clear from her living room after the air strike last month, she saw a huge metal object half buried in the rubble where a three-piece suite had once been. She had no idea what it was.

    “They dropped a truck on our home,” she shouted to her husband and sons]
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/-sp-gaza-bomb-disposal-expert-bomb-dead

  3. The 2 US Secretaries said there would be “no boots on the ground” in Iraq. Perhaps they are levitating? And we have Abbott just itching to get involved (maybe we are already?)

    [A team of US marines and special forces landed on Mount Sinjar in Iraq on Wednesday to assess options for a potential rescue of of 30,000 Yazidi civilians threatened by Islamic extremists and worn down by lack of food.

    The forces flew in on V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft that can land vertically. They joined a small number of American special forces who, the Guardian has been told, had been on the mountain for some days. That team had been assessing the military and humanitarian situation and guiding US air strikes against Islamic State (Isis) fighters encircling the mountain.

    A handful of British SAS soldiers were also in the area to “gather intelligence”, a British official said. The developments were the first confirmation that international forces were on Mount Sinjar.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/us-ground-troops-direct-role-evacuate-yazidis-iraq

  4. The poor do not spend as much on petrol, they are not lifters,they need to pay more.

    The poor do not spend as much on education, choosing lower cost non-productive degrees such as teaching, nursing and social work, they are not lifters, they need to pay more

    The poor do not spend as much on health, they do not get nose jobs, tummy tucks and eye brow lifts, they are not lifters, they need to pay more.

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I reckon I’ve got my cold on the turn.

    Why I would never live in Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-reintroduction-of-toll-likely-to-force-motorists-onto-parramatta-road-20140813-103krj.html
    And another reason.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/sydneys-cost-of-parking-gougeathon-20140813-1031p7.html
    ICAC leaves Newcastle under siege and mightily pissed off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-revelations-leave-newcastle-a-city-under-siege-20140813-103puq.html
    An academic bemoans the entrenched corruption in NSW politics.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/comment/entrenched-corruption-in-nsw-politics-20140813-1032e4.html
    A rather disparaging article on Hockey’s fallacious arguments for the petrol tax increase.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/joe-hockeys-fuel-tax-pitch-hits-a-roadblock-20140813-103ooe.html
    With good reason Labor us attacking Hockey for being “out of touch”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/aug/13/joe-hockey-defends-his-poor-people-dont-drive-very-far-comments
    This is a very interesting article by Katherine Murphy around the “severed head” photo.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/we-must-look-past-shock-tactics-like-a-child-holding-a-severed-head-in-syria
    Er, over to you Tone and Chainsaw.
    http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/proposed-cuts-could-force-car-industry-to-close-early-says-holden-20140813-103lr3.html
    An iteresting day at the Senate Select Committee on sexual abuse in the ADF.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/australian-defence-abuse-taskforce-doesnt-know-how-many-offenders-are-still-serving
    Mark Latham is not impressed with a particular Council.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/richard_nixon_was_right_government_EjBorFB6exFb08nF3UWtCL

  6. Section 2 . . .

    Democracy on trial regarding the business case for Melbourne’s East-West link.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/contested-east-west-link-business-case-tantalisingly-close-20140813-103r2q.html
    Here’s Lenore Taylor’s take on it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/13/westconnex-the-115bn-road-paved-with-coalition-gold
    The charade of Abbott’s $550.
    https://theconversation.com/competition-watchdog-shouldnt-be-the-carbon-tax-price-police-30345
    Labor warns that APS jobs will be sent to Asia if Medicare payment management privatisation goes ahead.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/labor-warns-jobs-will-be-sent-to-asia-if-medicare-payments-privatised-20140813-103i5r.html
    Desperate times for the budget as big business starts to spruik it.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/desperate-times-as-big-business-starts-spruiking-budget,6769
    Stephen Koukoulas calls for an interest rate cut.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/dreadful-labour-market-data-bring-on-an-interest-rate-cut.html#.U-vWXPmSya8
    Now it’s Treasury that has a big spill.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/job-losses-as-treasury-bosses-tell-staff-of-fate-in-spill-and-fill-20140813-103q8z.html
    Bob Ellis sums up Joe Hockey.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/14/joe-hockey/
    The three worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/13/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-28/
    A good reminder for us to be careful what we (ie Abbott) do to our health system.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/13/brits-dont-be-fooled-the-nhs-is-brilliant-and-aussies-dont-let-your-guard-down

  7. Section 3 . . .

    The importance of science in relation to government supported therapies and treatment.
    https://theconversation.com/autism-therapies-need-more-than-just-compassion-30462
    More maaates’ work to be looked at by ICAC. This time it’s a Labor MP involved.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/foul-called-over-lease-of-bowling-club-land-20140813-3dn8f.html
    Another big day at ICAC. Popcorn supplies must be running low. Jodi McKay comes out as the big winner in the ethics stakes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-told-former-police-minister-mike-gallacher-was-orchestrating-illegal-donations-from-nathan-tinklers-property-development-company-20140813-103a97.html
    The IPA and some of Abbott’s hand-picked rich mates would call this a success.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/very-low-wage-rises-send-many-workers-backward-20140813-3dn6k.html
    Christian queue jumpers? Surely not Mr Morrison!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-could-take-4000-iraqi-and-syrian-refugees-as-church-leaders-urge-abbott-government-protection-for-christians-20140813-103kx3.html
    Then come up with a decent budget!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank-bosses-want-end-to-budget-impasse-20140813-103ixt.html
    MUST SEE! David Pope and the fuel ex(er)cise.

    Alan Moir with Mike Baird’s uncomfortable situation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Rowe. How ugly is this!!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  8. The poor do not spend as much on health, they do not get nose jobs, tummy tucks and eye brow lifts, they are not lifters, they need to pay more.

    Perhaps “plastic” surgeons are the only real lifters

  9. Morning all. We’ll see what Hunt is made of and whether he can force the hand of the WA govt to wind back carbon tax from state fees and charges.

    [Mr Hunt telephoned his WA counterpart Albert Jacob yesterday after State Parliament was told the Water Corporation would collect an estimated $1 million a month in carbon tax payments until at least November, despite the tax being repealed on July 17.

    Transport Minister Dean Nalder said this month that low GST receipts and falling iron ore revenues meant the State may not remove a 1.5 per cent carbon tax component from public transport fares that is funnelling about $300,000 a month into Government coffers.

    Premier Colin Barnett later said the Government “intended” to lower fares but gave no timetable for doing so.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/24710533/wa-told-to-remove-carbon-tax/

  10. And from the Land of the Free –

    Ferguson, Missouri has gone troppo. Is it a sampler of things to come? I hope not.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/08/13/ferguson-missouri-police-take-another-protesters-lifepolice/
    And guess what? Gun sales spike in the area.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/08/gun-sales-spike-near-ferguson-riots
    Equality in policing Seattle style.
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/13/1321345/-White-guy-starts-fight-black-guy-gets-pepper-sprayed
    Mike Malloy explodes at a caller defending Israel.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017208864
    Fatherly devotion Virginia style.
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/08/13/bad-dad-man-shoots-daughter-thinking-shes-a-burglar-crashes-car-driving-her-to-er/
    Children of the NRA. How sick!
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017208908
    12 things foreigners hate about the US.
    https://www.yahoo.com/travel/12-things-foreigners-hate-about-the-us-94461481107.html
    And the class of FoxNews surfaces once again.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/08/fox-news-psychiatrist-michelle-obama-needs
    FoxNews says prayers should be kept in schools because Christians are being killed in Iraq.
    http://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2014/08/elisabeth-hasselbeck-keep-prayer
    Here are some interesting GOP demographics.
    http://crooksandliars.com/2014/08/american-apartheid-white-majority

  11. mike
    Remember how the Coalition in opposition kept on and on in QT with energy bills from constituents. Labor can now return fire with interest.

  12. Morning all

    Radio news break just informed that joe hockey is sticking to his claim that poor people dont drive, and he has statistics to back him up.

  13. Some on twitter echoing Mumble’s speculation from earlier that with Hockey shooting himself in the foot, Morrison is now the only real successor to Abbott.

  14. Tuned into 2GB four times in the last day or so to see what is in fashion over there. Surprise not, four times it has been MUSLIMS !!!! Could be some ugly times on the way as the claims are getting a bit fevered.

  15. Now jon Faine asks whether Peter mac Hospital paid bribe to KJackson.

    Now faine is interviewing a medico who was on the board at the time

  16. Funny tweet

    [BREAKING NEWS: @JoeHockey announces the poor needn’t worry about metadata retention as they don’t have internet #OtherThingsThePoorDontDo]

  17. From yesterday..

    Thieving bank parasitic bastards rack up another monster 8bn profit on the backs of fees and charges that they extract at their whim and discretion from the accounts of the poor, while other cigar smoking parasites attempt to wring a few more drops of blood from the same poor, while having absolutely no intention whatsoever to tax the bank bastards for their free ride while having their fat arses generously underwritten by the taxpayer.

    (My attempt at writing like Bob Ellis..)

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-reports-868b-record-profit-despite-planning-scandal-20140813-103foe.html

  18. #TURC bribe? Heather Wellington, chair @PeterMac_News 2000-08 “No, we did not pay a bribe. We settled a genuine legal dispute” #auspol

  19. Was it a bribe? Dr Wellington, former PeterMac chair “It was crystal clear.. the quantum of the payment was to be disclosed” #auspol #TURC

  20. Give #TURC evidence? “All of this needs to be in the public realm. I’m very distressed by it” Dr Wellington, former PeterMac chair #Faine

  21. Apparently, the AFR has an interview with Ed Prescott that is making a fair bit of news, particularly in regards to top tax rates.

    http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8890574/top-tax-rate-hurts-growth-nobel-laureate

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/ed_prescott_says_top_tax_rate_killing_psTfBlCsgwrvQ0QetoxLxJ

    There’s a fundamental disagreement about this between economists, well explained in this article of 2009, that gives a better idea of what the world views of economists are.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

  22. Joe Hockey should just admit his blooper. Lower income earners tend to live in regional areas (no public transport) and outer suburban areas (poor public transport) and so either have to drive or stay within walking distance of home (which you normally can’t if you work). Joe should instead just make his case as to why the reinstatement of indexation is necessary, if he can.

    Maybe there’s room for negotiation. I would be quite happy for Labor to accept indexation in exchange for dropping the Medicare co payment, for example. A future Labor government will need revenue to help undo Abbott’s depredations.

  23. Two points about petrol prices.

    1. A lot of richer people have a vehicle as part of their employment package. So, they may drive more and use more. However, they don’t actually pay for the fuel they use.

    2. Increasing petrol prices will flow throw to the general economy. Most product is delivered by road to the supermarkets and shops. So increasing the price of petrol means everything goes up in price.

  24. [@GrogsGamut @JoeHockey “can’t they just take public transport that poorly services their area because they are poor?”

    2:38 PM – 13 Aug 2014 ]

  25. At current rates of inflation, fuel excise indexation would increase petrol prices by about one cent per litre per annum in perpetuity (or in Abbott-speak keep going up and up and up). For someone who drives about 15,000 km per annum, the amount they pay for petrol will go up by about $20 per annum or 40 cents per week forever. While no one wants to pay more tax, this should be managable.

    As for some other major budget changes – a medicare co payment of any amount will end bulk billing and is not negotiable. No unemployment benefits for 6 months – not negotiable. University fee deregulation, loading up young people with debt for doubled fees – not negotiable.

  26. Good Morning

    Clive Palmer meeting Dutton about Co payment today.

    I hope that Palmer will tell him where to shove it. I base this on a comment Palmer made about universal healthcare.

    Pup is almost in the same political territory as the Labor Right. Note the almost.

    This makes sense to me for a party going after the centre right. Especially in regional areas.

    With Hockey becoming the caricature figure that looks after the big end of town in the eyes of voters confirming what Labor has known for decades about the LNP I think the LNP is in big trouble as a party now.

  27. GG

    The very argument Abbott used to such effect with those energy bills quoted.

    Its the end result that counts not where the tax is initially levied that counts with cost of living.

  28. BK

    [ Why I would never live in Sydney.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-reintroduction-of-toll-likely-to-force-motorists-onto-parramatta-road-20140813-103krj.html ]

    Well this will just be the start if baird is re-elected.

    He will sell off almost everything in sight, owned and paid for by taxpayers over generations on very favourable rates to maaates and foreigners which will lock in high prices for generations.

    Then the money realised on the sale of the assets will be used in other infrastructure deals with more maates – with guaranteed profits for the maates and all the downside borne by taxpayers once again – including business and trading risks – as have happened before.

    Plus of course voters will have to pay through the neck to use said infrastructure.

    The mugs may well vote for it as well – despite ICAC. Voters have a clear choice.

    Don’t laugh in the other states your turn will come as well.

    Then to top it all off, we have the *Porcine POM*, mike smith from ANZ demanding that the senate “get out of the way” of the government’s so called reform agenda. Its more a wealth transfer process to those already wealthy.

    Just who the fcuk does he think he is!

    Thats the state of affairs and peoples votes have allowed this all to occur.

    Democracy is not a free ride and voters have made serious errors in recent years.

    BTW – that list of IPA demands posted by AA last night deserves more attention back at # 871.

    Quite of few of those demands have been delivered and a range of other ones are in the works.

    Keep bending over voters – you are getting what you voted for.

  29. [ Steve777
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 9:19 am | Permalink

    Joe Hockey should just admit his blooper. ]

    Steve – he is doing even better – he is telling voters what he really thinks – that the wealthy get a poor deal paying for welfare of their inferiors and that it should be ameliorated by making the poor pay more and get less welfare.

    The IPA list posted by AA back at # 871 sets it all out – chapters and verse. And its happening.

  30. “@political_alert: Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen will hold a doorstop interview in Cabramatta at 10.30am on the Treasurer’s latest fuel excise comments #auspol”

  31. Bw – Trying to catch up from last night:

    [Belgium has that sort of philological quality about it.]

    It’s a poor excuse for a country. They should just dissolve it and merge the relevant bits with Holland, France and Germany. The minuscule left overs should immigrate to Brazil or Argentina (Argentina would suit them best considering the current economic situation there).

    And on

    [Anyway, all these solid old Sudeten german houses (such as were not flattened during WW2) were being lived in by their new Czech owners and the documentary focussed on german previous owners returning to visit the houses that had once been their homes.]

    Modelled for sure on the small Israeli tourism promotion ‘drive’ – “Ex-local Arabs visit their ex-homes in Greater Israel”.

    [Budget?

    Sorry, Joe. No cigar.]

    😆

    [so I will take note any time I listen to Shorten.]

    Do you really do this or are you bullsh#ting, again?

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