Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).
Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.
The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.
Logged on to yahoo before I came here this morning – the news page headline was “Eat my dust: Abbott to Shorten” with the byline wtte of ‘At last, good polling news for the government.”
I’m sure Shorten will be happy to eat any amount of dust if the polls remain at these levels.
I repeat: even these (slightly lower) polling results are amazing. No one would have predicted this a year ago.
I also repeat: the lower primary vote is also not surprising. No one likes admitting they’re wrong, and the “Labor bad’ message was hammered home for at least three years.
You’d expect, under those circumstances, that voters dissatisfied with the Liberals would shift to a minor to begin with, only plumping for Labor once they were convinced that it had got its sh*t together for real.
That (looking at Bludgertrack) Labor’s primary has increased as much as it has is quite interesting, and suggests that a lot of the discontent with the Labor government wasn’t with their policies or governance, but was purely driven by the leadersh*t wars.
Morning all
Not surprised that support for the coalition has improved. Milking the MH17 tragedy and playing the terrorism card has worked wonders for this mob. How vomitous
Briefly
Yes it is ALSO true that the Malaysian air craft incident has reawakened cold war anti soviet hostility.
It is NOT anti-semitism to DESPISE Israel. I despised the USA for its actions in Vietnam too.
Jewish people need to over their entitlement attitude. Germany and the NAZI were 70 years ago. Gaza is NOW. Israel is behaving just like Germany, seeking “lebensraum” and committing acts of atrocities – like enclosing 1.5 million people in a getto for 5 years – makes Warsaw into a picnic.
Briefly, 40 years ago I like everyone else regarded Israel and the Jewish people as brave, long suffering and noble, and LEADERS in the world fight for civil rights and justice.
As each atrocity is succeeded by another worse one I now see Israel as a rogue state and their supporters and WORSE than the pro USA nutters who embarked upon the Vietnam and later iraqi crusades.
Sadly too the powerful and inspiring Jewish intellectual leadership that was so dominant in the 20th century for causes of justice and freedom seems to have evaporated as the current generation of Jewish leaders seems to have embraced economically right wing policies, rather than the left causes which they once so proudly led.
Socrates on nukes:
1. I’m opposed to any state retaining nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. I’m also keen on a rapid decommissioning process involving all heavy weapons of war. Shrinking the size and diversity of the armed forces of the world should be a key goal of rational people.
That noted, you did ask why anyone but a terrorist would retain nuclear weapons.
I see no argument at all for the major states to retain them. Nuclear weapons don’t enhance the security of any of these states in the 21st century. I’m also not convinced they make a contribution to projecting the strategic power of the group of five, or even those other states that hold them, because in practice, deploying them against a conceivable enemy or rival would be unthinkable. It’s not even a good bluff.
OTOH a small state wishing to hold off a military challenge from a far better resourced power might well see nukes as an answer. They are far cheaper to acquire and maintain than large armies. Had the US believed that Saddam had deployable nuclear weapons and was willing to use them they’d probably not have invaded Iraq in 1991 or escalated in 2003. Ditto for Gaddafi in Libya. North Korea probably doesn’t have deployable nukes but the risk that they might keeps the US at bay.
Each if these regimes was/is odious, but that’s beside the point. Even if they were simply run of the mill developing world regimes not seen as being in the US sphere of influence, they might think that their possession of nuclear weapons (or the belief that they had them) gave them fairly cheap immunity from US-led attack.
If every state followed a strict policy of military non-intervention then non-crazy regimes might well think having them was pointless, but that’s not the world we live in.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
On day one of this trial it looks all over for Parsons Brinkerhoff.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/westconnex-adviser-engineered-traffic-numbers-on-lane-cove-tunnel-disaster-20140811-102vqf.html
Warwick McKibbin suggests a new election to block the “populism of the Greens and PUP”. Then he would, wouldn’t he?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/westconnex-adviser-engineered-traffic-numbers-on-lane-cove-tunnel-disaster-20140811-102vqf.html
James Massola – Hockey simply has just not made the case.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/westconnex-adviser-engineered-traffic-numbers-on-lane-cove-tunnel-disaster-20140811-102vqf.html
Yesterday at ICAC. Brown paper bags and all!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/11/icac-liberal-mp-tells-how-newcastle-mayor-gave-him-wad-of-money
It’s easy to prevent these disputes. Simply disallow any religious activity in public schools. Of parents want their kids to be subjected to these activities let them waste their money sending them to private schools.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/schools-face-please-explain-on-religious-instruction-20140811-102uay.html
An oncologist comes out and slams Erica Betz.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/11/my-cancer-patients-dont-need-bad-science-and-self-blame-mr-abetz
And another nice Liberal type bites the dust. It’s just the way they are I suppose.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-party-hit-by-another-social-media-controversy-after-members-homophobic-comments-20140811-102s7h.html
Nathan Rees explains how the ban on donations from developers is good for democracy. A good read.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-a-ban-on-developer-donations-safeguards-democracy-20140811-102ntk.html
A big court case on bank fees opens today.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/maurice-blackburn-launches-huge-class-action-over-credit-card-late-fees-20140811-102oab.html
Will new security laws criminalise journalists?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/11/australias-national-security-proposals-will-criminalise-journalists-says-union
Abbott must be OS.
Section 2 . . .
Without real reform Hockey’s budget pain will have been for nothing.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/8/12/australian-news/without-real-reform-hockeys-budget-pain-will-be-nothing
An interesting article from Ross Gittins on the genesis of many of the budget nasties.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/econocrats-advise-false-economy-20140808-101tkf.html
Costello smacks Abbott.
http://catallaxyfiles.com/2014/08/12/costello-smacks-abbott/
Jane Caro on the effect of Pyne’s education proposals on women. The front bench doesn’t get it she says.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/11/pynes-education-policies-hurt-women-but-the-men-in-cabinet-dont-seem-to-have-noticed
How Paul Sheehan got duped by the IDF.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/11/paul-sheehans-claytons-clarification-gaza-booby-trap
The three worst things the Liberal Party did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/08/12/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-27/
A desperate government shifts from Voltaire to Orwell.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/11/paul-sheehans-claytons-clarification-gaza-booby-trap
James Hird still doesn’t get it.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/eighteen-months-and-james-hird-still-doesnt-get-it-20140811-102xza.html
News Corp spits the dummy over the Australian Press Council.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/aug/11/news-corp-attacks-australian-press-council-and-its-chairman
Section 3 . . .
Section 3 . . .
Ron Tandberg – Team Australia.
Alan Moir – Mission Accomplished?
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Pope evokes Winnie the Pooh.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Pat Campbell with some interesting artwork on Gaza.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
David Rowe suggests the budget and its foundations are in a bit of trouble.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Thanks BK
In light of all the criticism the govt has been getting in many quarters, the boost in support for them is damn annoying. But I guess we should think the Murdoch press for their good work in running the terrorism agenda for Abbott and Co
Oops thank
dtt
[It is NOT anti-semitism to DESPISE Israel. I despised the USA for its actions in Vietnam too.]
True, provided one is careful not to equate Israel with all jews. Israel, after all, has over half a million arab citizens and many millions of jews do not live in Israel but are citizens of other countries, including Australia.
[Jewish people need to over their entitlement attitude.]
Racism typically involves type casting all members of a race. It is also usually condemnatory.
‘Jewish people’ means ‘ALL jewish people’. While it is certainly true that some jewish people have an ‘entitlement attitude’ it is not true that all of them do. The same could be said for Australians if one believes what Mr Hockey has to say.
[ Germany and the NAZI were 70 years ago.]
True.
[ Gaza is NOW.]
True
[Israel is behaving just like Germany, seeking “lebensraum” and committing acts of atrocities – like enclosing 1.5 million people in a getto for 5 years – makes Warsaw into a picnic.]
Your proposition is that Israel is ‘just like Germany’. A cursory examination of the facts demonstrates that this is not supported. Israel has not, ‘just like Germany’, murdered millions of people or trashed a continent.
As mentioned on ABC radio this morning, this case is very pertinent to Melbourne in relation to proposed the East West link
[In the case of the Lane Cove Tunnel, which opened in 2007 with about a third of the predicted traffic volumes, the Supreme Court heard one suggested answer on Monday: forecasters come up with traffic figures based on their business needs, not what happens on the road.
Those figures are coming back to hurt the forecasters, two of the biggest names in the business, that are facing a $144 million lawsuit by aggrieved investors.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/westconnex-adviser-engineered-traffic-numbers-on-lane-cove-tunnel-disaster-20140811-102vqf.html#ixzz3A7qrDTeZ
BK – Pope got popcorn in as a incidental!
Poor JoHO. ‘Everyone’s pickin’ on him.
Re ICAC
[Morning #ICAC buffs. Suspended Liberal MP Tim Owen is back in the box today. Expected to make an announcement later about immediate future.]
[Owen’s campaign manager Hugh Thomson (who has allegedly rolled over) was slated to start his evidence today but is not on updated list #ICAC]
Jon Faine now interviewing someone re the case in NSW
[Sydney’s Lane Cove Tunnel predicted “180K cars a day” got 60K. Court case re modelling predicted to go 10 weeks. @JakeSaulwick #Faine]
[An Abbott government minister has said business should help the government make the case for lowering penalty rates paid to millions of workers on Sundays and public holidays.
Assistant Infrastructure Minister Jamie Briggs said it was unfair that small businesses had to pay double on Sundays and triple on New Year’s Eve, and it was on the government’s radar.
“We cannot go on in a society where we are charging people on a day which is a normal operating day, double what you would on any other,” Mr Briggs told a small business audience.]
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/penalty-rates-need-to-change-says-abbott-government-minister-20140812-102zi8.html
Fiorentina, who play in Serie A, was wearing an away jersey for a few weeks before someone noticed it was covered with swastikas.
The Lane Cove Tunnel is a good piece of infrastructure. The main complaint I have with it is that the main alternative route (Epping Road) was strangled in an effort to force more traffic into the tunnel. This includes converting general traffic lanes to a little-used bike lane and bus lanes. However, flower beds and market stalls would have served the same purpose. In any case this didn’t work and the private investors lost out.
It’s the Private Public Partnership model that is broken. The need for private profit distorts development by, for example, restricting future development of public transport options as well as the need to restrict alternative routes. I have no objection to tolls, but we should go back to having these big pieces of infrastructure being built and owned by the public.
vic
[Assistant Infrastructure Minister Jamie Briggs said it was unfair that small businesses had to pay double on Sundays and triple on New Year’s Eve, and it was on the government’s radar.]
Maybe Parliament should sit for 48 weeks of the year, five days a week, with sitting takin place on every Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.
That’ll be fair, wouldn’t it?
While getting rid of nuclear weapons makes good sense due to the threat of terrorism (they and North Korea are probably the only ones nutty enough to use one) it’s a bit Pollyannaish as the technology to make them is so widely known that any state could make them very quickly if push came to shove.
Twitter reporting Robin Williams found dead o/night ..apparent suicide..
[“We cannot go on in a society where we are charging people on a day which is a normal operating day, double what you would on any other,”]
Nice bit of hyperbowl.
Dio
[Fiorentina, who play in Serie A, was wearing an away jersey for a few weeks before someone noticed it was covered with swastikas. ]
Surburban Northern Italians – who would have guessed.
markjs
wow
markjs
Just been reported on newsbreak, but no mention of circumstances of his passing
breaking news
Robin williams dead
CTar1
Our pollies would argue they work hard enough already…
Oscar winner and comedian Robin Williams died this morning at 63. While his publicist wouldn’t confirm that it was a suicide, they did issue this statement. “Robin Williams passed away this morning. He has been battling severe depression of late. This is a tragic and sudden loss. The family respectfully asks for their privacy as they grieve during this very difficult time.”
Williams, who won an Oscar for his supporting role in Good Will Hunting, will reprise his role as Theodore Roosevelt in the third installment of Night at the Museum this December. He had recently signed on to reprise his beloved role as Mrs. Doubtfire in a sequel to be directed by Chris Columbus and was last seen opposite Annette Bening in the indie film The Face of Love.
Story developing…
Here is link
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2014/08/11/robin-williams-dead-at-63/
vic
[Our pollies would argue they work hard enough already…]
They’d want ‘extra money’ 😆
Maybe we could consider dropping penalty rates when you can make an appointment with a solicitor or medical specialist or a plumber on Sunday morning. Weekends are still special. If a business can’t afford to pay its staff decent wages it shouldn’t be in business.
[Williams, who won an Oscar for his supporting role in Good Will Hunting, will reprise his role as Theodore Roosevelt in the third installment of Night at the Museum this December. ]
Well, he won’t.
Steve777
more to the point, if they weren’t making (as a general rule) enough money to cover the extra costs, they wouldn’t be opening.
[Adam Hills @adamhillscomedy 5m
Robin Williams was the reason I started doing comedy. I got to tell him that once. I wanted to tell him again. So sad. So very very sad.]
Shazbot !
Question for Jamie Briggs…
Weekends ..Public Holidays ..Nights are all “normal operating” times for Nurses, Police, Ambos, Firies, etc. Are you going to target their penalty rates too?
[ more to the point, if they weren’t making (as a general rule) enough money to cover the extra costs, they wouldn’t be opening.]
Even if they are able to abolish weekend loadings, employers won’t be satisfied, they would then want to get rid of other working conditions.
While the tories and their cheer squad may take some encouragement from the latest Newspoll – it doesn’t get their dog of a budget passed nor does it alter the fact most of abbott’s front bench are determined to show they are obnoxious incompetent duds.
As for Warwick McKibbons call for a new election – bring it on!
Very sad news about Robin Williams. They really broke the mold when they made him.
Good Morning
Vale Robin Williams
Its depression again by the sounds of it. Very sad when you consider how much cheer and fun he brought to people with his entertainment.
This is why its so important to fund amd talk about mental illness to take away the stigma so people seek help.
Here that means accepting that recognition means more on the DSP as more survive instead of dying.
Message to Jamie Briggs..
Sunday may be a “normal operating day” for the small business, but it’s anything but a normal working day for most workers.
Why not a small surcharge levied on the customer on w/e’s & Public Holidays??
[53
daretotread]
It is NOT anti-semitism to DESPISE Israel.
Oh, really? Good luck with that. Your baying is an excellent illustration of the point that author’s point – the war between Israel and Hamas has let the dogs of racism off the leash.
Does it follow that you want to destroy that which you hate? Since Israel embodies Jewish self-determination, do you also despise this? Do you? Do you, with other avowed enemies of Israel, oppose Jewish self-determination? How can this be separated from the use of violence against Jews, not only in Israel but here too? How can such a volition be other than antisemitic?
Robin Williams was a great comedian who broke new ground with work such as Mork & Mindy..
He always brought to my mind that other comic genius Spike Milligan …who revolutionised comedy with The Goons..
Both were stalked by the black dog..
Terrible news about Robin Williams. Depression can be such an insidious condition.
dave
Senator Bob Day was interviewed last night and he gave the right wing loons game away. He asked why people shouldn’t have a “right” to work (if they choose to,yeah right) without penalty rates , holiday pay , sick pay , long service, workers comp cover or unfair dismissal coverage . He mentioned a couple more I’ve forgotten.
Is Herd’s wife mentally deficient or something?
Every time she notices a camera point at her, even in the f’ing hearing room, she grins.
She doesn’t seem to realise his a#se is on the line.
[ Why not a small surcharge levied on the customer on w/e’s & Public Holidays?? ]
A range of businesses already apply surcharges for all sorts of reasons, including peak seasons.
Will the tories legislated to prevent this as well – of course not.
They charge whatever they can – the limitation being customers inability or unwillingness to pay. Rising unemployment won’t help businesses either.
Most SMALL businesses open on Sundays as a service to their customers. They are manned by the owners and families and cannot make a profit regardless.
Best would be NO Sunday trading (as per banks, medical centres, lawyers etc.). Owners then get some time off!
Of course the BIG boys would not be very happy as their profits would be reduced without their Sunday Trading.
Finally those who work Monday to Saturday would lose their shopping time on Sundays and be inconvenienced.
There’s no simple answer as some would believe.
poroti
Yes.
Bob Day comes across as a real fruit cake – but the voters put him there and they need to reflect on that.