Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition’s favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 23
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  2. Get nicked Sloppy.

    [Jessica Irvine ‏@Jess_Irvine 10m
    Petrol as % household income, by quintile: Q1=4.5%, Q2=3.5%, Q3=2.9%, Q4=2.3%, Q5=1.3% ie poor households spend more of income on petrol]

  3. Zoom

    [for stealing several hundred boxes of cigars]

    Your father sounds like neibour ‘Henri’.

    Very ‘not’ happy. But you try to stay alive.

    And first chance the auxiliaries take a cautious look around, and when safe cross the lines so ‘captured’ may be a little ‘keep safe’ tune by your father.

    Good luck to him and his children.

  5. [Yes, my understanding was that Ruddock would soon be retired to provide a safe Northern Sydney seat for Barry O’Farrell. Once confirmed in the eventual by-election, he could then be parachuted into Cabinet and take over the Treasury portfolio.

    This would help sure up the Liberals support in NSW while also providing a semblance of competence and some air between the worst excesses of some of the proposed budget measures.]

    The same Barry O’Farrell that had to resign as NSW Premier because he lied to ICAC?

    Quick! Someone ring Baldrick and tell him the Libs stole one of his cunning plans.

  6. CTar1

    He realised fairly quickly that if he reported to the local German commander that he had lost his unit (being careful to sus out beforehand what units were stationed there, and avoid naming one of them) he automatically got given enough provisions to go to where the unit named was stationed.

  8. kakuru

    My apologies. Distracted by small child ‘sitting’.

    I see that some other commentators have covered the ‘Belgian’ language bit, I hope.

  9. Tweet from Albo

    [So Joe Hockey cuts all public transport funding from Budget, then says poor people don’t drive cars much – you couldn’t make this stuff up]

  14. Hockey will be “counselled” by Peta Credlin for his distraction today, undoing Abbott’s in UK to help Iraq meme.

    How long will they put up with this bumbling Treasurer?

    Hockey is killing any attempts to move the national conversation away from the politically toxic budget that he heaped on his colleagues.

  18. Apparently Jill Wran’s daughter has been taken in by police for a murder.

    Only a couple of months after her husband died.

    Just got a message from a friend and now on front page of the SMH.

  22. [Apparently Jill Wran’s daughter has been taken in by police for a murder.
    Only a couple of months after her husband died.
    Just got a message from a friend and now on front page of the SMH.]

    What?? Are suggesting the late premier was assassinated??

  23. mtbw

    [The daughter of former NSW premier Neville Wran has been arrested in connection with an investigation into the stabbing murder of a small-time drug dealer at Redfern on Sunday night.

    Harriet Wran was picked up by police with another man at Liverpool late this afternoon. She is being interviewed by police.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/neville-wrans-daughter-harriet-wran-arrested-as-part-of-investigation-into-murder-of-redfern-drug-dealer-20140813-103rk1.html

  26. [The Punters just lerve WAR! headlines… as long as it’s not them fighting the war, so it’s double-plus-good for Tony if he can swing it.]

    BB

    You may be right but I’m not convinced that the Australian people are ready for another war so soon after we finally withdrew from Afghanistan. Most people were sick of the loss of young Australian lives in that war and I suspect most of them will still feel that way, however hard Abbott might beat the drums.

  28. [The daughter of former NSW premier Neville Wran has been arrested in connection with an investigation into the stabbing murder of a small-time drug dealer at Redfern on Sunday night.
    ]

    Thank goodness then. An unrelated incident.

  29. [ALP ministers daughters are not as well behaved as LNP ones.]

    Well yes, not a good look for NSW Labor — murder is a serious crime.

    The focus should be on those Liberals resigning en masse in NSW at the moment.

  30. [victoria
    Posted Wednesday, August 13, 2014 at 6:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Tweet from Albo

    So Joe Hockey cuts all public transport funding from Budget, then says poor people don’t drive cars much – you couldn’t make this stuff up]

    And Abbott gives all this money for roads infrastructure which, according to Hockey, poorer people will not be able to use because they don’t have a car or drive very little.

    On Hockey’s reasoning, poorer people won’t need to pay the $7 GP tax because they don’t have transport to visit a doctor anyway. Also they won’t need to worry about their pensions going down because they can’t get to a shop to spend their money anyway.

    All in all, these poorer people are a big nuisance so the sooner they fade away and die, the better for everyone.

  32. With Liberals, you often can’t see the dishonesty for the arrogance. Bill Shorten called Joe Hockey arrogant for saying fuel excise rises would affect the rich more than the poor. WRONG! He should have called Hockey a liar!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-13/shorten-seizes-on-hockeys-poor-people-dont-have-cars-comment/5668468

    On average, poor people do have cars, even if unemployed, and drive longer distances than the rich, because they cannot afford expensive inner city homes. Plus they cannot afford the latest cars with nifty economy features. They often have more than one car, because homes near the train lines are also dearer. So overall, there is little or no correlation between wealth and fuel usage, and where there is one, it may be negative.

    This was researched by two Griffith uni academics, Jago Dodson and Neil Sipe, who developed measures of vulnerability to fuel prices and mortgage interest rates. Poorer outer suburbs are most at risk. They developed a “Vampire Index” and mapped it for each capital city. See
    http://app.griffith.edu.au/ertiki/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=17601

    This time Joe Hockey is the vampire, sucking poor people’s wallets dry.

  33. From shellbell’s link it looks like they have the main (alleged of course ) offender.

    [Haines, who handed himself into police, did not appear in the dock of Parramatta Local Court and his bail was formally refused on charges of murder, attempted murder and aggravated break and enter.]

  35. [Abbott in London to speak with British PM, who happens to be on holidays, so they spoke by phone.
    We do have telephones in Australia PM.]

  38. victoria

    [Abbott in London to speak with British PM, who happens to be on holidays]
    Did Dave get a sudden urge to go on holiday overseas about two days ago ? 😉

  41. [Poll Roundup: Slow Move Back To Coalition Continues

    Aggregate 52.3 to Labor (-0.4 since last week, -1.4 in four weeks)]

    Just goes to show how much work is ahead of Labor.

    Clawing back support after a disastrous budget has been relatively easy (even despite Hockey’s continued own goals) — no wonder Abbott is all over this MH17 Iraqi jihad stuff.

  42. [839
    swamprat
    Posted Wednesday, August 13, 2014 at 7:26 pm | PERMALINK
    bemused… I am used to CARicature……
    ]

    Yes, most almost say “character” with a “tur” on the end…

  43. Poor people don’t have cars?

    Hockey must be taken out of context.

    If he’s serious, it’s round the back at the dunnies for a good belting.

    Everyone bar J.Conomics could easily understand that the lower your income, the higher the percentage of your income is spent on petrol.

  44. victoria

    Remember Abbotts multiple trips to fish markets/mongers ? Must be a tory thang. From his current hols Dave and wife find time to point at fish at the market……

  45. Victoria @ 809

    If poor people don’t drive cars, how can funding for public transport be cut?

    Hockey is seriously a really stupid bastard!

  48. Rich people do not spend more of a percentage of their income on petrol.

    They can afford not to travel on roads for the vast distances that would be required.

    The most stupidest treasurer of all time…J.Conomics 😎

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