Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a shift in the Coalition’s favour, including a primary vote improvement that exceeds the error margin.

Newspoll has given the Coalition its best result since early April, with Labor’s lead at 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up four), 34% for Labor (down two) and 13% for the Greens (up one). This amounts to a two-point shift to the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred – although it should be noted that last fortnight’s result was above trend, whereas this one is right on it. Tony Abbott’s 41-37 lead as preferred prime minister puts him ahead of Bill Shorten for the first time since early May, the result a fortnight ago having been 38-38. This reflects a worsening in Shorten’s personal ratings, with approval down two to 36% and disapproval up three to 44%, rather than an improvement in Abbott’s, which are little changed at 36% (steady) and 54% (up one).

Also out today was a result from Roy Morgan that supports the proposition that Newspoll’s fluctuations are largely statistical noise. Both major parties are down fractionally on the primary vote, the Coalition by half a point to 37.5% and Labor by one to 38%, with the Greens and Palmer United both gaining half a point to 11% and 5.5% respectively. An improvement in Labor’s respondent-allocated preferences gives them an impressive headline lead of 56-44 on two-party preferred, up from 54.5-45.5 a fortnight ago, but the two-party result based on preference flows from the previous election is unchanged at 54-46.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Also a quiet result from Essential Research, which has the major parties steady on 41% for the Coalition, 39% for Labor and 51-49 to Labor on two-party preferred. The only change is that the Greens are down a point to 8%, and Palmer United up one to 5%. We also get Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which are the first to record Tony Abbott’s MH17 bounce – up three on approval to 37% and down four on disapproval to 54%, and back in front on preferred prime minister for the first time since April at 37-36, compared with a 37-34 deficit last time. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are little changed, his approval down two to 34% and disapproval up one to 40%.

The most interesting finding from the supplementary questions is that 51% oppose the government’s internet surveillance proposals with only 39% in support, while 68% profess little or no trust in the government and ISPs to protect the stored information from abuse. The survey also asked respondents to rank a series of environmental issues as either important or not important, and while all scored strongly, it’s perhaps curious to note that climate change scored lowest at 71% important and 27% not important, with protecting the Great Barrier Reef highest at 91% and 7%. Respondents were also asked to assess the government’s record on asylum seekers according to a range of criteria, with pleasing results for the government in that responsible and fair (along with “too secretive” and “just playing politics”) topped the list at 45%, while “too hard” and “too soft” were bottom at 29% and 26%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,139 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Reverting to trend after a couple of weeks where the only people on TV were from the Government’s probably a pretty slender win as far as polling goes…

  2. A passionate attack on the UK Labour Party.

    I like the “Temple Whores of Capitalism”.. 🙂

    [These people voted with the Tories to make a law that caps spending on social welfare in case it interferes with the low tax, no tax plans of the rich, who are the only constituency they take seriously any more. They are using the fear and helplessness they helped to cause in our society to snuff out even the hope for change in the hearts of the people they so sloppily claim to love, as they cry their gin soaked self-pitying crocodile tears at their abandonment of the poor to the privatised market forces to which they are the fawning acolytes. Every bit as much as the Tories, they are the Temple Whores of Capitalism.]

  3. I would like to have seen Abbott get a flogging in this poll but it is not the case. Maybe the punters still blame Labour for Abbott being in power?

  4. This is people feeling sorry for Abbott being surrounded by such a bunch of losers in Cabinet, then factoring in the fact he is such a loser himself, then factoring in that the election is probably two years away so “let’s keep it kind of interesting” since Abbott wouldn’t be dumb enough to call a DD, so basically this is a sympathy reaction, nothing else.

  5. Labor’s primary vote at 34% seems well out of step with other polls and looks very low, surely?

    It’s easy to write off Morgan, but their age group votes are hard to ignore.

    I’d say 52/48 is very kind to the LNP.

  6. As for Bludgertrack, even taking Morgan last election preferences and deduction for ALP lean, wouldn’t bludgertrack go up slightly from 52.1?

  7. On a psephological blog it’s normal to trawl through the entrails of the latest Newspoll..

    On Twitter there’s nary a mention..

    My daughter/sil/and their friends & workmates have never even heard of Newspoll..

  8. In Dec 2010 (about a year in as LOTO as Shorten is now):
    Abbott had a higher approval than Shorten currently does (44 vs. 36%)
    Abbott had a lower disapproval than Shorten currently does (43 vs. 44%)

    However, Gillard had better ratings than Abbott as PM…….something for everyone.

  9. [10
    William Bowe

    Will this change bludgertrack?

    It’s currently at 52.1-47.9, and this poll is 52-48, so probably not. Maybe Labor down a little and the Greens up a little, but only a little.]

    Thanks William.

    I suppose my ingrained hostility to the LNP impairs my sense of things, but this looks to me like a surprisingly good result for them. They absolutely do not deserve to attract 40% on the PV.

  10. . 25 re sanctions and the damage to the German economy
    This post was interesting because it showed how sanctions are as one economist said” a way of punishing someone by shooting yourself in your own foot”

    The German aconomy is begining to slow down …given it’s immense trade with Russia… and another crisis looms in Greece where the summer food crops/vegies/tomatoes etc ..,which go in the main to Russia are being sanctioned

    Ironically the Turks will pick uo the slack and supply the vegies the Russian won’t get from Greece…as the Chinese and Japs will replace German suppliers too
    In Germany there is much annoyance…as they are bearing the brunt of the US demands for actions.,,,but the US has little trade with the Russians,and wont suffer at all
    It will be interestimng to see how our farmers affected will respond
    Barnaby Joyse said not to worry ,as we will find others markets for meat and cheese.,etc……but that may be his typical bravado
    NZ is unaffected as it has kept it leaders mouths shut and not strutted the world stage like Abbott and Bishop do
    and may replace us in the Russian market,,,for keeps perhaps

    We will get no help to find new markets from the USA I guess

  11. 28

    The sanctions will have a significant effect on the Russian economy. There is risk of significant inflation from the food and other goods Europe will no longer be selling and/or the Russians buying and the Russian economy will suffer from the lack of capital and/or more expensive capital caused by the lack of access to European capital markets.

  12. Silly season poll, if Abbott cannot get the lead during his Statesman phase he is rooted. Wait until all the problem politics come flowing back when the House sits again in two weeks.

  13. Morning all. I think William has summed up the poll well – statistical noise. No reason to expect a bounce, and Abbott’s numbers remain lousy, even in the midst of a slight shift to the Libs.

  14. Brandis looking to help Banks avoid next $6 billion payout……

    Maurice Blackburn’s new lawsuits are to be bankrolled by litigation funder Bentham IMF, which plans to take 22.5% of any winnings, subject to the approval of the court.

    A source close to the lawsuit said that without litigation funding, which is currently under scrutiny by the Productivity Commission and out of favour with Attorney General George Brandis, Maurice Blackburn would have been unable to run the bank fees cases.

  15. This is a good article on the need to eliminate nuclear weapons, of which we still have 16,000, two decades after the end of the cold war. Why? When would anyone other than a terrorist use one? It is time governments learn to challenge more the advice they get from their military men, who can be deeply wrong on issues of buying toys for themselves to play with.

  16. Woman discovers swastika drawn in butter on her McDonald’s sandwich

    Quick someone should rush down to old Customs House ( Circular Quay Sydney) & rip up all those mosaic tiled swastikas

  17. Slightly more popular among the cohort always polled by Newspoll: oldies with landlines who are home on Saturday arvo.

  18. NSW Liberal MP Owen ad dimwits to ICAC that Democracy is a sham & that voters are fools for thinking otherwise….
    “I agree. It does look bad. But, there’s really not anything that I as a candidate or a backbencher in the government have any influence over.”…

    while accepting $10k brown paper bag

  19. Socrates

    Heard a piece on the radio yesterday about claims some mob were charging young people up to $2,000 dollars for the privilege of working for nothing.

  20. 457 visas being used for the Inpex project in Darwin. Having worked there, there is a labor shortage, and a cost problem. But both are due to lack of housing, which makes the cost of renting in Darwin absurd. NT law for tenants is lousy, and I have met some lower paid workers who have moved out of Darwin as a result. Have a good day all.

  21. Socrates

    [457 visas being used for the Inpex project in Darwin.]

    Fine timing. I was just about to post an NT article about work place dangers being a bit different on that job. That and a case of “spot the cheap foreign labour”

    The dangers….
    [Leaked documents showed a plan that said if a saltie was smaller than 1.5m then employees should “continue diving as normal” and if a croc was 300m or more away to ignore it regardless of size.]

    457 workers or what !?

    [ they would have to be the lowest-paid workers on the Inpex project regardless of their skill level……….the divers were being paid $300 less a day than they should be.

    “We get into the water with crocs every day and we get paid less than the cleaners are getting paid (on the Inpex project),” he said. “One guy even got sacked for speaking up, the morale is terrible.”]


    [The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has triggered a dramatic rise in global anti-Semitism. This has significantly undermined the collective well-being of the Jewish people. While the intensity of anti-Semitism varies from country to country, it has been felt everywhere, including Australia.]

    I think bludgers would do well to read and reflect on this article.

  23. ICAC circling closer to the Federal Liberal Party….

    [FEDERAL Paterson MP Bob Baldwin may be asked to explain why he wrote to ‘‘implore’’ the NSW Coalition government to support Nathan Tinkler’s proposed coal-loader.

    Documents with the Independent Commission Against Corruption show Mr Baldwin drafted a letter to then-state ministers Chris Hartcher, Mike Gallacher and Duncan Gay in April 2011 urging in-principle support to the $1 billion coal-loader. “I implore the New South Wales government to do everything it can to see this project come to fruition,” he wrote.

    Mr Baldwin then sent it to Buildev director David Sharpe, who replied, “Thanks Bob letter looks good”.

    Giving evidence yesterday, Newcastle state MP Tim Owen said he did not know how Mr Baldwin came to write the letter.

    Counsel assisting the ICAC Geoffrey Watson described Mr Baldwin as ‘‘really spruiking the case’’ and ‘‘in effect [giving] Buildev a right to review the terms of his letter’’.

    ‘‘The process looks crook doesn’t it?’’ he put to Mr Owen, who replied, ‘‘My sense is that they were relatively close and obviously he’s a strong supporter of the project. But you’d have to ask Mr Baldwin that.’’ ]

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