Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its lead of 54-46, and next to no change on the primary vote, with the Coalition steady on 36%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and others steady on 16%. However, Tony Abbott is up five on approval to 36% and down seven on disapproval to 53%, and has drawn level on preferred prime minister at 38-38 after Bill Shorten led 41-36 a fortnight ago. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are also improved, his approval up four to 38% and disapproval down two to 41%.
Section 3 . . .
Dirty work in the DNS wage negotiations.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/department-of-human-services-wage-poll-plan-collapses-20140728-zxvlx.html
Bob Ellis – The three worst things the Liberals did today.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/07/29/the-three-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-13/
Is James Hird on the way out?
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/james-hird-losing-support-of-essendon-directors-20140728-zxuvj.html
David Pope says it all on jobs and work for the dole. Nice dog!
Alan Moir and Greg Hunt’s carbon footprint.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
A vicious contribution on the Gaza conflict from Ron Tandberg.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe and science.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
sprocket_
Her piece of paper from the Ukraine government and its value was shown immediately. The moment the investigators headed out the Ukraine army launched an offensive in the area of the crash.
Steve777 at #31. Very funny. You have made my morning with that belly laugh!
Morning all.
Enjoy your trip out west BK! You should try to catch up with some of the Perth Bludgers while you’re here.
confesions
Much as I’d love to have a catch up (Laocoon included) we’ll be on the job 0730 to 2200 every day.
Good Morning
BK
Thanks for the morning roundup. Like many I will have withdrawal symptoms.
And from the Land of the Free –
The weekly upchuck collection.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/28/weekly-upchucks-kc-boyd-brings-us-shocking-religion-news/
The Establishment should fear Barbara Warren.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2014/07/28/praise-jay-sus-elizabeth-warren-found-lifes-workwarren/
Topless protesters take on open gun carrying ammosexuals in Texas.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/ammosexuals-furious-over-topless-women
Now open carry is coming to Washington.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/open-carry-washington-dc-what-could
Bill Maher takes on the right wingers on income inequality.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/bill-maher-shoots-down-matt-kibbes-fairy
Look how Obamacare has “damaged” Kentucky.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/28/1317335/-Here-s-what-Mitch-McConnell-wants-to-repeal-from-his-home-state
Idiot Sarah Palin is starting her own online news channel.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/28/1317290/-Never-fear-Sarah-Palin-TV-is-here
The Young Turks – NRA’s “Everyone gets a gun” campaign.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017205534
Public education Kentucky style.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/28/creationist-group-to-ask-kentucky-taxpayers-for-help-building-noahs-ark-theme-park/
Satanists demand religious exemption in the light of the Hobby Lobby decision.
http://thinkprogress.org/health/2014/07/28/3464769/satanists-hobby-lobby-abortion/
A ridiculous Repug Congressman calls the EPA “terrorists”.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/28/3465030/house-republican-climate-rule-terrorism/
Dio
You are not around yet but when you spout probability as justification you need to be sure you are right.
Now if we take the USA known terrorist incidents on non military targets = 2. Of these one Tim McVeigh was US born all American boy and the other 9-11 we presume (not proven in a court) that it was organized by a Saudi living in Afghanistan. Now that gives a probability of just 50% for Muslim inspired terrorism. Now the scale of the 9-11 attack might influence thinking but as you will know the 9/11 hijackers were non random evens so probability theory has no place.
If you go to the UK the number of terrorist events is large but only one (again not court proven) was probably Muslim inspired and the other 10 or so (not sure of numbers) were Irish. Probability in this case probabity is <1/10.
Only in Russia where the Checkens are active do we find clear dominance by Muslims and it is questionable if this is Muslim or simply separatist.
In South Asia Tamils in Sri lanka and Sikhs in India lead the terrorism charge. In Pakistan it is Muslim but then 100% of the population is Muslim so not sure what this tells you.
In Africa certainly there have been incidences of Muslim terrorists blowing up US embassies but there are lots of other non Muslim events. It would be a brave person who uses probability to predict violence in Africa.
Now in the Middle East there is a war on so it is not relevant to even consider terrorism in the context of probability theory. (Indeed to even consider it shows NO understanding of the concept).
Also a thought on the Israeli "success." The issue here is that there is a self selected group of passengers. You do not travel to Israel if you are hostile and the tourism potential is relatively limited. The Muslims (or other enemy or hostile people) who fly in will only be higher levels diplomats or trade type people. If Israel had a large backpacker tourist culture then the success or otherwise of "profiling" could be better judged. As it stands I would be very careful not to use probability theory on this one.
If you read the debate there is fairly extensive argument from the security expert arguing that that turns out not to be the case once you operationalise the system, which of course you have to.
You can’t screen for “muslim” because that is a belief system, you have to profile on looks. So you profile on “looks Middle Eastern”. Unless you want to catch those African muslims, or south Asian muslims. At which point your profile is basically “don’t screen white people” which a) significantly reduces those efficiencies b) really does look like harassment with consequent social costs and c) creates a security vulnerability.
Secondly, a discretionary profile relies on judgement from the screeners. The point is made that discretionary systems tend to evolve to “zero-tolerance” systems due to cautious self-interest on behalf of the scanners. This too reduces the supposed efficiencies, and still involves more time and effort from the scanners (including ongoing training for them).
Swamprat
Yes I can see why the British would want to do that.
___________________________________________________
A reminder muslim is religion and not race. So if there is targeting of muslims it is not racial profiling.
One take on the JBishop as next Liberal leader:
Morning all
BK
Enjoy your work trip to WA
The Oz as usual goes into overdrive. Abbott’s personal ratings went up and so did Shorten’s. But for some reason, the Oz interpret it as a second chance for Abbott. You gotta laugh
Good morning.
Gee the situation in Libya is looking good this morning, not.
When the West – led by the idiot wonks of Washington – goes in to support regime change against a secular dictatorship in the Islamic world, the results have been consistently good: Afghanistan in the 1980s, Iraq in 2003, and more recently Egypt, Libya, Syria…
Some of the jihadists should seriously contemplate interspersing their regular bowing down to Mecca with the odd salute in the direction of Washington DC!!
confessions
JBishop has been the best performer out of a very poor bunch, but I just cant see her becoming leader
Remember when a Newspoll was one of the top stories on ABC News?
Today, no mention if it on ABC online.
While I agree ordinarily a poll shouldn’t be newsworthy in and of itself, it is just strange that ABC has only come to this conclusion in the last few months. I wonder what changed…
Their ABC? You bet. Sell the buggers off. I for one won’t shed a tear. Next to Murdoch, it’s the Tories’ best friend.
I don’t know what to write about. Maybe
– the stupidity and vindictiveness of mandating two job applications per day (write a thousand times -“I will not be unemployed”)
– giving a environmental approval to the corrupt, broke owner of a massive coal project in a sensitive area with coal prices headed south, and major banks publicly declaring their lack of support
– Barnaby Joyce’s amazing lack of basic understanding and coherence in discussing the Israel/Palestine issue on Q&A last night
– Barnaby Joyce’s amazing lack of basic understanding and coherence in discussing anything
Darren Laver
When there was a Newspoll it was one of the first things on Fran’s lips on RN A.M.
Re profiling. There is routine profiling by nationality/appearance/etc. at customs/immigration barriers around the world. One can have a debate about whether or not this is “racial profiling”.
Security checks of passenger manifests are also routinely made in many countries. Where there are concerns, additional checks are made: this is not always done at the security screening point so it’s not always obvious.
If “racial profiling” is meant to mean more thorough checks of carry on baggage and clothing of certain racial groups then it’s silly, naive and completely outmoded by modern practices. I think it comes up in US political debate as a sort of Tea Party meme which is meant to be a not-too-subtle way of promoting racist views.
However, as Diogenes has been pointing out, any sort of profiling that can identify high risk groups is a great idea, and is routinely done. Arabs and other Muslims will get caught up in this net because, unfortunately, far too many of their number practice or promote random terror against innocent people. It’s not racist or discriminatory: Arabs and Muslims in general need to clean up their act.
victoria:
Love how they turn chatter about her while she’s out of the country as well, and unable to strike back.
confessions
Well according to the Murdoch press, Abbott’s personal ratings have gone through the roof, therefore the chatter re JBishop is mute. 😀
Trog
Nobody told Barnaby that the budget emergency is a myth. His performance on Q&A was the worst there. I think David Suchet thought he was some sort of larrikin comedian.
victoria:
Yep.
Well, there go those 50-50 predictions.
If Abbott can only lift his personal ratings at the expense of a major human (involving Australian’s) tragedy then I can’t see things improving.
It will be a shame if they punt him, he’s Labors best bet.
DL
I have mixed feelings on this. The ABC’s ‘news and current affairs’ may actually be a better friend to the Abbott regime than Murdoch because it authenticates Murdoch memes to audiences who distrust the Murdoch press.
On the other hand, give that the destruction of the ABC is a goal of Murdoch — he wants it dead, buried and cremated — it seems perverse to cite the debauchery of the organisation by its enemies as a rationale for giving those enemies what they want. This goes double for when the organisation could be revived so as to meet a bona fide public purpose.
The Guardian shows News how to report
@GuardianAus: Tony Abbott improves in Newspoll, but Labor keeps election-winning lead http://t.co/qqQELzYaox
Lizzie
Is last night’s Qanda worth viewing?
victoria
It was a good QandA despite Tony Jones.
“Indeed, the most illustrative demonstration of the new brand of scientific racism must be said to come from the popular author and neuroscientist Sam Harris. Among the most publicly visible of the new atheists, in the case of Muslims Harris has publicly stated his support for torture, pre-emptive nuclear weapons strikes, and the security profiling of not just Muslims themselves, but in his own words “anyone who looks like he or she could conceivably be Muslim”. http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/04/20134210413618256.html
wow such deep intellectual thinking
Looking at Australia’s electoral history, I’m forced to conclude that Australians want Labor policies delivered by a Liberal government.
Liberal Oppositions are always basically promising to do exactly that, but then, when they’ve been elected, they have a rush of blood to the head and decide that the voters really wanted things that weren’t even discussed prior to the election.
It would be interesting to see how a Liberal government which delivered on Labor policies would fare.
(Of course, it’s possible that the Libs don’t think they can deliver, and that’s why they have to change gears post election…)
guytaur
Might catch up with it on iview
zoomster
I havent caught up with the latest news on dictaphonegate. What is your view on the matter as it stands?
Looking back, this may have been the Ukranian president’s intention all along. When Abbott phoned Boroshenko, the latter posted a media release that implied Abbott supported the Ukranian side. (This was doubtless because of Abbott’s earlier attack on Putin.)
Now it seems the Ukraine government may be using MH17 as an excuse to reestablish control over rebel territory including the crash site.
It would indeed be tragic if Abbott’s attacks on Putin at least indirectly are hampering investigation and recovery efforts at the crash site.
JBishop was heard on the radio this morning doing a bit of megaphone diplomacy over the inability to examine the crash site. Is she now thinking she was dudded by the Ukraine government?
Just noticed on the last Neilson Poll, in the 18-24 age bracket, Greens on 18, LNP on 22 (ALP 49).
Some powerful trollbait in those numbers.
Trog
To ease your mind a bit about the Galilee Basin and Adani’s (Sp?) Carmichael Mine ….
Tim Buckley of the Australia Institute of Energy Finance Analysis was on RN today. He’s view ….. it won’t happen.
He says they bought the mining rights 3 years ago for $0.5 billion. Since then the bottom has fallen out of coal, and AGW issues have advanced globally, both seen as big negatives to coal money sources.
But the Basin needs an unimaginably huge 100% infrastructure build at a cost of $10-$16bill. Airport, roads, railways, port, mine water works etc etc ……
Buckley says there is zero chance of financing it and it’s gorn!!!
And the nine other mines that were to piggy back on Carmichael, totally dependant on this infrastructure build are also gorn!
According to Buckley, the only news yet to come is when Adani admit that their $0.5bill initial investment has also gorn!
Also on RN a half hour ago was a Jobs Australia guy talking about Abetz’s “one in the morning, one in the arvo” plan.
He said that this will mean 32 million job applications flowing around each month, and this will drive all parties nuts.
So much for “we’ve got a plan” and “we’re going to fix this and that logically, calmly, methodically” .
Dtt
To start off with, McVeigh didn’t take a plane.
There were four planes taken by attacks by Muslims in the US so its 4/4 = 100%.
And even if it was 50% of terrorist attacks being Muslim, they would be hugely over represented as they are about 2% of the population so you would still racially profile them.
Adani is India’s largest private electricity provider.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adani_Group
@SenatorLudlam: surveillance inquiry about to get under way: first up Stewart Baker, former US Dept of Homeland Security- listen live http://t.co/DEgJjS5u0m
Dio
Muslim is not a race
Milko and William
They also do behavior profiling so you might look shifty. Obviously customs don’t tell you what they look for as suspicious behaviors.
I’ve only been picked for explosives testing once and I have actually scraped explosive off a guy not long before and it didn’t detect it.
“@political_alert: Former PM Julia Gillard will this morning launch the memoirs of Greg Combet at Trades Hall in Sydney, 10.30am #auspol”
victoria
Q&A was more entertaining than some. Worth a try.
victoria
I outlined a couple of days ago how it would be dealt with if there was any truth to it – someone without parliamentary ambitions would ‘fess up.
Which is what’s happened…
There’s a lot of semantic games being played, both by ‘The Age’ and the ALP.
I think that’s fair enough: I have a fatal flaw, which means that if I’m asked a straight question, I have to answer it absolutely truthfully. I thought that would sink me politically. However, the media assume you’re not going to answer a straight question, so they never ask you one, which means I’ve always been able to dance around the question. I feel absolutely no guilt about that – if they want me to answer them properly, they can start asking me proper questions.
Much the same is happening here. ‘The Age’ ‘s questions are full of loopholes, and the ALP is using them.
That makes it very difficult for an outsider to work out what actually happened!
(For example, Andrews denied any of his people having anything to do with the dictaphone. That’s technically true, given the allegation is that one of his staff listened to the interview on a USB).
Interestingly, however, the allegation from ‘The Age’ seems to be that the ALP listened to the tapes, recorded the interview and then passed it on to someone in the Liberal party. I frankly find that scenario to be highly unlikely.
Given Tomazin’s provable carelessness with her dictaphone and her inability to work out when she had actually lost it, it is possible that one of any of a number of people – including her own work colleagues – could have done the deed.
Tin foil hat stuff – Tomazin realised she’d lost her dictaphone at the time period all of her earlier statements accord with (around the May budget, a fortnight before ALP state conference). She found it again, but in circumstances which made it clear that someone else had accessed it. Knowing what was on it, and how it would most logically be used, it was conveniently lost again in circumstances which would put the blame on the people most likely to benefit from the leak.
I’m not saying that that’s what happened. But with ‘The Age’ playing the kind of games they are, who knows!
Guytaur
Agree but we’ve been using it as a shorthand example of racial profiling.
That staff also participated in discussions about what to do with the recording device. That us having “something to do” with it.
Zoomster
Appreciate the feedback.
The Liberals should concentrate on ascertaining who leaked it to all their members
But that’s the point, it is a matter of detail.
If you could make these kinds of decision with negligible cost and negligible uncertainty, then sure the maths checks out.
But in a real life system that you can define sufficiently precisely to put into a handbook and train thousands of staff in, that is not the case. There is a cost associated with the increased complexity of the system.
In that case whether or not it is a great idea is not obvious, but depends on a cost-benefit analysis. As it happens, with a very low base rate the simple system of random screening outperforms the complex system of racial profiling, at least according to Bruce Schneier.
p m z
“wow such deep intellectual thinking”
Tell me more about what Al Jazeera thinks about Sam Harris. It’s not like I can’t guess! Next you’ll be telling me the Westboro Baptist Church isn’t a fan!