Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a post-MH17 improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, but no dividend on voting intention.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its lead of 54-46, and next to no change on the primary vote, with the Coalition steady on 36%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and others steady on 16%. However, Tony Abbott is up five on approval to 36% and down seven on disapproval to 53%, and has drawn level on preferred prime minister at 38-38 after Bill Shorten led 41-36 a fortnight ago. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are also improved, his approval up four to 38% and disapproval down two to 41%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 28
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  1. [Ukraine Parliament will consider austerity budget amendments on Thursday that are key to receiving IMF support and to assign more financing for the army.]
    Ukraine will be in a real rush to get things sorted . The required “austerity” measures are pretty draconian. The Russians offered a soft loan but earlier this year Kiev went for money from the west via the IMF. Unfortunately it will come with gems such as these inflicted on people who are already pretty much the poorest in Europe. I can see another revolt on the horizon.

    [-47% to 66% increase in personal income tax rates
    – 50% increase in monthly gas bills
    -40% increase on gas tariffs for heating companies;
    – increase in taxes on agribusiness
    -the IMF …. currency’s devaluation against the dollar year-to-date (35+%)
    -Pensions cut 50%]

  2. [ zoomster

    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 7:38 am | Permalink

    badcat

    do not write down your PIN…

    I thought (and I realise you’re summarising, not expressing an opinion!) that the latest advice was to make your PIN complicated, but write it down and keep it in a drawer at home.
    ]

    ————————————

    Hi Zoomster – its a case of posting an article’s recommendations – and doing the exact opposite MYSELF 🙂 …. I have all mine on a piece of paper in a folder. I am wary of storing passwords on a computer/in a cloud etc etc as is the modern trend …
    Luckily I changed from ‘signing’ to a pin a couple of weeks ago but I guess the change will catch a few out …

  3. badcat

    I did have a lot of mine in a yahoo folder, trustingly called ‘passwords’, which was mysteriously emptied – but given that all the passwords concerned were connected with paying bills, I haven’t seen any damage as a result!!

  4. Re the IMF’s demand for Ukraine to cut pensions 50% as part of the loan package. Pensions are currently $160 a month. That will go down well.

  5. Morning all

    Badcat

    As per BK, you are playing a blinder. Thanks muchly.

    Meanwhile Melbourne is giving us another dangerous windy day. Seriously frustrating!!

  6. morning all.

    victoria:

    Your state will cop a powerful cold front around mid afternoon with icy southerly winds and even the possibility of snow down to sea level!

    Stay warm!!

  8. Poroti

    I gather the Russians RAISED the pension in Crimea. If there are people wavering in the Russian East over whether to support the rebels and Russia or Ukraine, this will shift them.

    I suspect that even if russia withdrew all support today, when the austerity laws come in the people in the east will still rebel and the people in the West will riot.

  9. confessions

    The wind is what bothers me the most. Last time, we lost power for most of the day and big trees were brought down in the area.

    My youngest has a big celebatory day at her College, which includes carnival rides. I am hoping they cancel the activities in light of these crappy conditions.

  11. [On August 2 last year, the Coalition told voters it was on a ”unity ticket” with Labor on school funding. As it turns out, that wasn’t quite true. . .

    So, has the significant additional investment at Richardson Primary changed the lives of the young people who attend it? In the last reported NAPLAN results, improvement at this school occurred at twice the rate of the ACT average. NAPLAN has its limitations but the findings are supported by the data from the annual ACER assessments and the observations of teachers and school leaders.

    Tragically, the money that helped this happen was part of a Low-SES National Partnership that is now being withdrawn. The National Partnership dollars were meant to be rolled into the Gonski funding formula. Now Christopher Pyne and co have slashed two-thirds of the Gonski funding, the school looks like it might be sent back to where it started.]

    http://m.canberratimes.com.au/comment/how-money-makes-a-difference-in-our-schools-20140730-zygmf.html

  14. victoria:

    I don’t like windy conditions either. Pretty windy here overnight, but nothing like what Vic and Tas have had.

  16. daretotread

    They did. One of the sweeteners that proved very attractive was the Russians raising pensions and wages to match those in Russia. Both considerably higher than Ukraine conditions. Even if you weren’t an ethnic Russian it would be pretty tempting if you are on the bones of your arse.

  19. lizzie

    [
    Government is embracing tabloid politics]
    Their brainfarts sound like they have been using 2GB callers as a focus group to come up with their next brilliant idea.

  20. Why am i not surprised

    [The Age can confirm that senior Murdoch News Ltd staff were told about the existence of a recording in the weeks before an email from an “Elizabeth McRobert” distributed the audio and edited transcripts to hundreds of Liberal members.
    Advertisement
    The Age does not suggest News Ltd was involved in obtaining or distributing the audio. But revelations that some at the media company were told about the tape before its June 24 circulation shows that more than just a tight-knit, inner circle of Labor staffers knew of its existence.
    In Melbourne political circles, there has been chatter that someone tried to shop around the stolen audio recording prior to it being made public in the Elizabeth McRobert email.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberals-order-computer-probe-in-stolen-tape-scandal-20140730-zyoey.html#ixzz38zgccwvR

  21. Check the date on that story Fran, it is 10 years old. There is enough to loathe israel’s current actions for without recycling old stories.

    Problem is that guardian site picks out previous stories that may be relevant without applying a time filter, so that at first glance it looks like all of the ‘related’ stories are current. One needs to be careful before linking for this reason.

  22. Was it my imagination, or did Morrison appear slightly less arrogant, slightly less cock-sure of himself when interviewed by Sarah Ferguson last night?

    I mean, .. the change in body language was only slight.

  23. I won’t post all the links, but Malcolm Fraser has taken to Twitter like a duck to water, and he’s using his Tweets to slam government policies.

    [Malcolm Fraser ‏@MalcolmFraser12 1h
    Jobless treated same as offenders. Where has sense of values, decency gone? http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/-3cujc.html …]

    Mal sounds like a lefty!
    [What’s it like aboard a superyacht? Is this financed by corporate welfare?? http://www.theage.com.au/executive-style/-zvcf1.html … ]

  28. Trog

    I agree. He was more in defensive mode against Sarah than attacking and his attacks were standard “I won’t be verballed”.

  29. [The Agriculture Department has denied covering up the circumstances surrounding the deaths of more than 4000 sheep on a voyage to the Middle East.

    Most of the sheep died on an afternoon of extreme heat 15 days after leaving Fremantle on Bader III, operated by Livestock Shipping Services Pty Ltd.

    Documents obtained under freedom of information laws show the exporter took 13 days to officially notify the department that the death rate on the voyage exceeded reportable limits. Australian laws require exporters to notify authorities as soon as possible or within 12 hours.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24590752/sheep-ship-deaths-not-covered-up/

    Am assuming this is the federal department not state. If so then it continues the secrecy of this govt.

  30. I was telling Her Indoors about the poor EPA bloke who was murdered yesterday near Moree. She hadn’t heard the news that day, and I hadn’t heard the full bulletin either.

    But I informed her that the victim had kids and that he had been shot by a farmer. That was about all I knew of the details.

    When she asked why, I said I didn’t know for sure, but I guessed it was about land clearing. I then embellished my guess with the prospect that somewhere Alan Jones or a similar shock jock type would be involved in whipping up the controversy and stirring up trouble.

    Today I finally got to read the story in the SMH:

    The 51 year-old Environment and Heritage compliance officer, Glen Turner, a loving father-of-two from Tamworth, was allegedly shot in the back as he served a notice on 79 year-old farmer Ian Turnbull for illegally clearing vegetation on his Croppa Creek property, 55 kilometres north of Moree.
    …
    In 2010, talkback host Alan Jones made an ominous prediction regarding the growing stoush between NSW farmers, who were defending their right to remove vegetation on their own property, and environmentalists, who believed significant clearing was doing irreversible damage.

    “I mean, the behaviour of this department is the kind of behaviour that leads people to murder,” he said of the supposedly heavy-handed way the Department of Environment and Climate Change was enforcing the Native Vegetation Act.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tragic-end-to-disputes-over-illegal-land-clearing-20140730-zyi4o.html#ixzz38zezMYAK

    Something really does have to rein in this idiot, Jones.

    Weak-minded people take him seriously. It’s possible some of them even believe it’s OK to shoot law enforcement officers because Jones has told them they are angry enough to do so.

    Perhaps they even think they can quote Jones, or get him as a witness to their moral rights to go around murdering environmental inspectors, or coal seam miners, or greenies or perhaps even dump federal politicians in to sea, tied up in chaff bags.

    The man, Jones, is worse than a loose cannon. He’s a loaded loose cannon, with the fuse burning. People are taking him up on his incitements. It’s not the first time.

    He won’t apologize, of course. He’ll rant and rave some more, thundering that it’s not his fault, hauling weak politicians onto his show for ritual humiliation and grovelling obeisance, dispensing favours to the lucky, and dishing up damnation to the rest.

    And now a man is dead. Shot in the back. It was probably inevitable.

    Just get this megalomaniac off the air (and they can take Hadley along too). They are too powerful, yet they have never been elected. They havce no right to put murder into the minds of their listeners. Real people are getting killed.

  31. [Was it my imagination, or did Morrison appear slightly less arrogant, slightly less cock-sure of himself when interviewed by Sarah Ferguson last night?]

    According to Mumble:

    [ Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 13h
    Come back soon Leigh, reckons Scott.]

  34. “Time to bury resource theft” cryptically thunders Judith Sloan, chief spokesperson for the downtrodden mining companies, while advocating the repeal of the RRT in the OZ.

    Please explain how reducing a tax on mining will reduce resource theft.

    Oh I get it! The resources don’t belong to Australia they belong to the overseas mining investors and Liberal donors.

  35. BB:

    Agree re Jones. He and his ilk are worse than rabble rousers, and need to be made to reel their shit it.

    And shot in the back? What a gutless act.

  36. It seems to me that Ukraine has gained most from the downing of the Malaysian plane, giving it the opportunity and the excuse to go in hard against the rebels and putting Russia in the defensive.

    I am not sure that the Ukrainian government will be able to sustain these gains, at least not without massive Western aid and/or with terrible oppression of the sort not seen since Stalin’s time.

    It was going to be very, very hard for the Ukraine to manage the economic austerity program, without massive social disruption on both sides of the nation.

    The West Ukraine rioters will, if unhappy do a repeat performance so that there will be demonstrations in Kiev. Since the western people mostly want a pro Europe stand they will probably be relatively easily quietened PROVIDED people still have food, heating and housing. Food should be OK in the Ukraine food bowl but heating could be a problem if Russia pulls the plug. Housing will be a test for any business oriented government – if rents go up while wages go down then there will be trouble if people are evicted.

    In the East it will be a different story. The Russian speakers will often have relatives working over the border in Russia and the differences in living standards will be in sharp focus. I cannot see how Ukraine can even HOPE to quell the rebels while at the SAME time running an austerity program. If was an eastern Ukranian Russioan speaker I would be sending my children and elderly to Russia for safety and awaiting the coming nightmare.

  37. “@abcnews: #BREAKING: Prime Minister Tony Abbott announces national memorial service for #MH17 disaster will be held in #Melbourne on August 7”

  38. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 7:59 am | PERMALINK
    Morning all

    Badcat

    As per BK, you are playing a blinder. Thanks muchly.

    Meanwhile Melbourne is giving us another dangerous windy day. Seriously frustrating!]

    Vic

    I was just thinking the same thing myself. Do you think the frequency and intensity of these winds has been increasing in recent years? It seems to be.

  39. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott tells @3AWNeilMitchell we don’t need a DD election we need the parliament to respect our mandate re @CliveFPalmer’s call for one.”

  40. [guytaur
    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 8:50 am | PERMALINK
    “@abcnews: #BREAKING: Prime Minister Tony Abbott announces national memorial service for #MH17 disaster will be held in #Melbourne on August 7”    ]

    Politically I think Abbott is now whipping a dead horse as far as this tragedy goes.

  44. “@latikambourke: Is @JulieBishopMP heir apparent asks @3AWNeilMitchell? ‘This is a parlour game,’ says PM Abbott.”

  45. Darn

    I was talking to the OH this morning. He does not recall such intense winds occurring as frequently as we have been getting in recent times

  46. Trog

    Jones should not have been on air to make the comment. He should have been taken off for his role in the Cronulla Riots

  48. BB

    I was also concerned about this quote —

    [Moree Plains Shire mayor Katrina Humphries said the frustration was so intense that an eruption of violence was “always going to happen”.

    “I thought it would happen over coal or gas or water. The frustration is so great, but obviously to have an outcome like that is so horrible,” she said.

    “What are we doing, as communities, as Australians, what are we doing that a tragedy like this happens through absolute frustration?”]

    Talk about blaming the victim.

    The landowner wasn’t some innocent little petal trying to clear a few acres to plant a vegie patch.

    He had a history of knowingly breaking the law and of doing so on a massive scale.

    The failure here is only that of government in that the penalties involved aren’t severe enough to outweigh the fact that’s it’s cheaper to buy uncleared land and clear it than it is to buy already cleared land.

    If the penalties made this course of action uneconomic, no matter how devoted to concepts of personal freedom a landowner might be, he wouldn’t bother pursuing this.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tragic-end-to-disputes-over-illegal-land-clearing-20140730-zyi4o.html#ixzz38zkxRl7E

    victoria

    as I’ve said before, if Labor is guilty of leaking the tapes, the easiest way for them to get out of trouble is to say so.

    It’s the fact that they’re not saying so – even after throwing Samaras under a bus (and why not go the whole hog if you’re going to do that?) that has me reaching for my tin foil hat.

    The Liberals got the tape from somewhere. No one denies that the decision to use it politically was made by someone in Liberal circles.

    As I’ve said before, there are cross party friendships and relationships, but they tend to occur when there are reasons for members of different parties to deal with each other on a regular basis. So they mainly happen at a federal level, where the insular atmosphere means that pollies of all stripes are more likely to run into each other.

    It doesn’t happen anywhere near as much at a State parliamentary level (I remember Labor MPs being genuinely astonished when one of the local Libs and I had a cup of coffee together…) and even less at HO level (not much reason for the two organisations to interact, given that they don’t even exchange preferences much).

    My point is that I can’t imagine (and hey, that’s just me) that anyone in State Labor HO knew and trusted a Lib party member enough to pass the information on to them – and if they did, why they wouldn’t fess up to it now and make this purely a Liberal party problem.

    I tend to think the Liberals involved got the tape from elsewhere. I agree it’s not the most logical scenario, but I don’t think this is cut and dried.

  49. zoomster

    I think the use of the word tape has people confused. Digital recordings can be copied with ease and the owner does not even have to know its occurred.

  50. Zoomster

    [I tend to think the Liberals involved got the tape from elsewhere. I agree it’s not the most logical scenario, but I don’t think this is cut and dried.]

    As linked above, it is very logical and likely

    The Age can confirm that senior Murdoch News Ltd staff were told about the existence of a recording in the weeks before an email from an “Elizabeth McRobert” distributed the audio and edited transcripts to hundreds of Liberal members.

    The Age does not suggest News Ltd was involved in obtaining or distributing the audio. But revelations that some at the media company were told about the tape before its June 24 circulation shows that more than just a tight-knit, inner circle of Labor staffers knew of its existence.
    In Melbourne political circles, there has been chatter that someone tried to shop around the stolen audio recording prior to it being made public in the Elizabeth McRobert email.

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