Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll records a post-MH17 improvement in Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, but no dividend on voting intention.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian shows no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its lead of 54-46, and next to no change on the primary vote, with the Coalition steady on 36%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 12% and others steady on 16%. However, Tony Abbott is up five on approval to 36% and down seven on disapproval to 53%, and has drawn level on preferred prime minister at 38-38 after Bill Shorten led 41-36 a fortnight ago. Bill Shorten’s personal ratings are also improved, his approval up four to 38% and disapproval down two to 41%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,361 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. With you on those Center. Canberra, Newcastle and West Tigers I find very annoying by winning when least expected. Running 3rd in our tipping comp, and only 2 off the lead.

  2. [This means that we are not now fighting side-by-side with ISIS]

    Well, to be fair the Syrian conflict is actually three-sided. IS are fighting against both the Syrian Government and the FSA.

  4. nappin

    It’s the betting that counts 😀

    There really hasn’t been any good opportunities since back when the Origin series began.

    I was pretty concerned with internal coaching problems with Broncos and Tigers last week and half suspected Manly would thrive with their turmoil 🙁

    Panthers and Titans are dangers this weekend 😎

    *night

  5. boomy1

    “Centre, I have been watching your predictions.
    You wouldn’t know if you were up yourself.”

    Hahaha, ‘if’.

  6. Shame the TURC site dont have action replays or a highlights package of the day’s play so to speak. If it was footy one would expect the odd section of today’s *play* to be referred straight to the relevant tribunal.

  7. [Damn, racism is so perfidious …… you can be a racist without realising it…….]

    I don’t know about “be a racist”, but you can certainly make racist remarks without realising it. That’s the whole point of the “casual racism” campaign – to encourage awareness of this and critical self-examination in that light.

  9. J Bishop…interviewed in Kiev and replayed on 7:30

    [Doorstop interview, Kyiv

    Transcript, E&OE

    30 July 2014

    JULIE BISHOP: We remain committed to our mission and today we will again seek access to the crash site. We recognise that we are in the middle of a war zone and that there is a constantly moving, fast changing environment here. There’s a military conflict between Ukrainian military forces and the various separatist groups backed by the Russians.

    Our personnel are working around the clock on operational matters. There is an extraordinary effort underway by the Dutch teams and the Australian teams, so that we can consider every alternative, every option to gaining access to the site. Yesterday I met with the Ukrainian Defence Minister, the Acting Prime Minister and made it clear to the Ukrainian Government again that we must have access to the site by way of a humanitarian corridor and there must be a ceasefire that will enable us to get onto the site and complete our work and get off the site and that must happen every day. So we are continuing to explore all options. Today I am visiting the Red Cross here in Kyiv. We understand that a large amount of personal belongings are now being held at the morgue in Donetsk and our AFP are helping co-ordinate an operation to remove the belongings from Donetsk and transfer them to the Netherlands.

    We recognise the importance of personal effects to the families and next of kin of those who were killed in the Malaysia Airlines crash. So this is part of our humanitarian mission and I am visiting the Red Cross to offer Australia’s support to ensure that we can transfer the personal belongings from the morgue in Donetsk to the Netherlands.

    JOURNALIST: You must be getting frustrated with the lack of ceasefire on both sides?

    JULIE BISHOP: We recognise that this is a war zone but we remain committed to our mission, we will not be deterred and every day we will seek access to the site. We won’t put our teams in unnecessary harm but we are determined to access the site and fulfil the terms of UN Security Council resolution 2166, that gave us a mandate to get onto the site, to retrieve the bodies and the remains and to gather the evidence necessary for the investigation to determine who was responsible for this atrocious act.

    JOURNALIST: From an Australian point of view, how effective can sanctions led by the US and EU have in terms of influencing Russia and therefore the rebels?

    JULIE BISHOP: We also want to influence Russia to use its influence on the separatists who are engaged in this ever-changing military conflict with Ukrainian troops. But our focus at present is on the humanitarian mission and so while the European Union and the United States are working on sanctions, the Australian mission is humanitarian. We are here for the purpose of retrieving the bodies and the remains and the personal belongings and gathering the evidence for the investigation. We will not be here for a day longer than we have to be.]

    I’m struggling to remember any other occasion when a Foreign Minister has placed themselves so close to events as Bishop is now doing in Ukraine. In an attempt to appear relevant, she has tied her fortunes to the progress of a conflict in which she can exert no influence and, for the necessarily short time she will be able to remain in Ukraine, also seems to have adopted a role as a quasi-leader of the joint police teams. This is an unorthodox role for a Foreign Minister, and not a low-risk one. If anything goes wrong on the ground, she will be directly implicated.

    In any case, this is now a test of patience and on-the-spot judgment rather than of force. It’s just as well that Abbott now seems to have lost interest in it.

  12. If I exercise my right to be a bigot, am I allowed to say that Eric Abetz is a genetically non-modified relative of a Nazi?

  13. roger bottomley
    Posted Wednesday, July 30, 2014 at 11:49 pm
    [If I exercise my right to be a bigot, am I allowed to say that Eric Abetz is a genetically non-modified relative of a Nazi?]

    Sure.
    Some people might think you are a dickhead though.
    Personally, I think the worst name you could call someone would be Eric Abetz.

  14. BK
    [I have been completely coccooned over here and have no idea what;s been happening politically.
    It’s a strange feeling!]
    Wait till you read The West tomorrow morning. Cocooned and strange feeling will be least of your concerns. Parallel universe may be more apt 😉

  15. Tinfoil hat time

    Given that the Tory cheer squad has been so full of praise for woman of steel bishop, many nominating her as PM in waiting, is it coincidence that Abbott has vacated the field as far as MH17 goes.

    He knows he stinks in the polls, but he also knows that Hockey has messed up big time and it might suit abbott’s purposes to have bishop caught up in the nest of vipers that is Ukraine politics.

    There can be no winners there but another potential leader’s reputation sullied has to be good for Abbott.

  16. Boomy1, why would people think I was a dickhead? I am simply exercising my rights according to the dictum of the Attorney General.

  17. Imagine you are talking to a person in front of you.

    ‘Genetically non-modified’ how many times have you said that?
    Or used the word ‘dictum’?
    Honestly, if you were talking about the weather to someone who was in the same weather and then mentioned the attorney -general and stuff and how this could favourably impact on their lives you would be a complete fruitcake to them.
    Correct me if I’m wrong.

  18. “Diogenes of Sinope was a Greek philosopher and one of the founders of Cynic philosophy”

    Thank you for telling me re Diogenes, make sure you remember who you based yourself on as we discussed last year

    Just been over the Hardknott Pass in the Lakes District, not for the faint hearted especially in the rain. Have been here 3 times never seen the area in the sun yet, but of course last week was “beautiful” 😀

  19. Mari

    If you haven’t done so yet, have a look at Norwesters #1091 link to Ms Jackson today.

    It is in 2 sections as I’m sure you’ll discern and quite an enjoyable read if you persist a little.

    First comes the set up ie the analysis of the HSU (ie KJ) arrangements with Peter Mac Research, and the fact that $250k was formally documented, discussed, voted on and signed, as a “refund” to HSU for all their costs in running the back-pay dispute.

    This is based on the new docs the RC has “acquired” since her last evidence 6 weeks ago.

    Second comes “the kill”, where KJ is shown to be not only furtive but also strategically dumb.

    See at about P 413 when the $50k from the slush fund she controlled is given to her ex Jeff Jackson. Here’s her logic.

    The slush fund NDA was authorised by the HSU Board as a KJ signature only a/c, therefore it was not a HSU a/c even though the deposits were from HSU.

    $50k was deposited from HSU to the slush fund on 23 March, and cheque drawn for J Jackson by K Jackson on 24 March.

    She argues with Counsel Assistin that this movement of the cash for 24 hours into “her” account, turned the money from HSU money into non HSU money, now able to be spent at her sole discretion.

    I think she believes herself. Normal people would quickly recognise it as simple money laundering.

  20. Psyclaw

    Thank you will do,IA has been onto her for ages.a thoroughly bad egg, protected by TA and her partner Do think she is going to come to a sticky end. The sooner the better

  26. Bold intervention in university fee deregulation debate

    If you want to fire up a room of economists, mention “trickle-down theory”. It’s the controversial notion that giving tax breaks and other benefits to the rich will eventually boost the incomes of the poor when it “trickles down” to them.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/bold-intervention-in-university-fee-deregulation-debate-20140730-zypk9.html#ixzz38z9BYBsZ

  30. Edward Snowden’s lawyer blasts Australian law that would jail journalists reporting on spy leaks

    Edward Snowden’s lawyer has labelled as “draconian” and “chilling” Abbott government legislation before parliament that would threaten ASIO leakers with 10 years’ imprisonment and make it an offence for journalists to report on information they receive from whistleblowers.

    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/edward-snowdens-lawyer-blasts-australian-law-that-would-jail-journalists-reporting-on-spy-leaks-20140730-zyn95.html

  33. Asylum seekers showing signs of trauma, torture, says senator

    About four out of five of the 157 asylum seekers being held at a remote detention centre in Western Australia after being detained in windowless rooms on the high seas for almost a month are showing signs of trauma and torture, Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has claimed.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-showing-signs-of-trauma-torture-says-senator-20140730-3cuj1.html#ixzz38zBRU43F

  35. PINning our hopes on a fading memory bank

    The modern-day security PIN is in the same category as the word ‘‘war’’ at Fawlty Towers when the German tourists checked in – for God’s sake, don’t mention the PIN. Do not tell anyone your PIN, do not write down your PIN, do not use a PIN made up of numbers reflecting personal stuff – your birthday, phone number, street address

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pinning-our-hopes-on-a-fading-memory-bank-20140730-zycve.html#ixzz38zBxXzsl

  36. [ CTar1

    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 6:33 am | Permalink

    badcat – You’ve been busy!
    ]

    ——————————————————

    With BK away in WA …. and Mari in HaggisLand – thought it was a good chance to get a few brownie points for next time WB gives me a ballocking …… 😉

  40. CTar1

    Posted Thursday, July 31, 2014 at 6:39 am | Permalink

    ————————————————–

    Thanks Ctar1 – please add some more ( takes at least 3 people to replace MasterBlaster BK )

  42. Morning all. Regarding Kathy Jackson, at this point she seems to be an even more cynical abuser of process than Craig Thomson was. Thomson was a brazen liar with a weakness. Jackson is a brazen liar with hypocrasy thrown in. She allegedly took more money than Thomson, over a longer period of time, for more personal purposes. Appalling. The HSU really should be wound up and its members covered by another union.

  43. One of the coalition policies that has not received all the criticism it deserves because there were so many other bad ones in the budget is higher education funding. The G8 universities are now spelling out the consequences.
    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jul/30/australias-top-eight-universities-push-for-higher-fees-fewer-students

    Courses like engineering cost from $30,000 US per year (for four years) in USA, up to $50,000 per year in top schools. Medicine and dentistry are similar, for more years. Even middle income families will be completely priced out of the top professional degrees under this system.

  45. This is perhaps the worst Israeli behaviour of all in their illegal invasion of Gaza. The UN were in control of the school, meaning there was no excuse to target it.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/after-a-reported-17-warnings-on-shelter-location-israeli-artillery-hits-gaza-school-killing-19-20140731-zyr1v.html

    Zionism is racism, and racist militarism sells well in Israeli politics. Israel has more tanks and jet fighters than France and Germany combined, and more than any of its neighbors since the Russians stopped supplying them. Under the guise of defense it has become a regional military superpower able to bully any neighbor at will.

  48. briefly

    [. We recognise that we are in the middle of a war zone and that there is a constantly moving, fast changing environment here. There’s a military conflict between Ukrainian military forces and the various separatist groups backed by the Russians.]
    Isn’t it amazing how Iron Woman and Leader of the Western World Abbott have only just discovered this fact ? Compare and contrast with their utter lack of recognition of this when berating Putin and the rebels for most of the first week.

  49. badcat

    [do not write down your PIN…]

    I thought (and I realise you’re summarising, not expressing an opinion!) that the latest advice was to make your PIN complicated, but write it down and keep it in a drawer at home.

    The reasoning being that cyber attacks rarely happen from within your premises, whilst your average burglar isn’t interested in hacking into your databases.

    Of course, you shouldn’t write down your PIN(s) and carry them around with you….

  50. http://www.phdcomics.com aka Piled Higher and Deeper is a comic that realistically depicts what graduate students go through with a humorous slant. Occasionally the comic artist break his normal comics and provide commentary about scientific research and his tours.

    I believe he makes more money out of his comics than his day job.

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