Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

835 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. badcat

    I think Maddie isnt a criticism, more that they think outside the box and change things that aren’t expected.

  2. Diogs,

    If Paddy stayed he’d be just another Adelaide kipper – spineless two faced and stinking.

    Since they closed down Holden, there are no workshops of any type in Adelaide any more. Just carpet bagging plastic surgeons trying to pretend they can make beautiful what is and will always be ugly.

  3. I see the Productivity Commission report on Child Care has been virtually ignored. Sussan Ley must be doing a happy dance at the media cycle today.

    Won’t last.

  4. “@jason_om: Justice Hayne now picking apart the defence draft case as ambiguous and lax #highcourt157”

    This does not sound good for the government

  5. Zoidlord

    Sloppy sloppy joe

    [Treasurer Joe Hockey continues to urge the Senate to pass his budget measures and abolish the mining tax, arguing both were about jobs and prosperity.

    He says if any evidence is needed, look no further New Zealand, where he is visiting on official business.

    “They are getting to surplus and they have a growth trajectory and a jobs trajectory that Australia can be jealous of.”]

    Hey Joe , they also have a “carbon tax”. You know one of those things that “lay waste” to entire economies.

  6. GG

    Those automotive sheltered workshops haven’t all closed yet!!!

    We’ve still got a couple of people employed in SA in real jobs.

    And that new RC should employ a few lawyers.

  7. Rua #33

    Many news outlets are being quite lax about the order in which they show/repeat info about the evolving events around MH17.

    I have seen the black boxes being handed over to a grateful Malaysian air crash investigator. I have read reports of the return of victims to the Netherlands having begun. I have read reports of quiet but successful dialogue with Putin by Malaysia and The Netherlands.

    Yet this arvo I have heard various ABC reports speculating whether these things would occur, whether Putin and the rebels could be trusted to cooperate as promised.

    As I write at 1630 hours, ABC 24 news is on in the background, and the same 2 presenters who introduced some of the speculations are now talking about them in the past tense.

    Quality control rating = zero.

  8. ru

    Productivity report was discussed on ABC radio this morning. There will no doubt be further discussions once submissions have been received

  9. The maddie fixer assessment may operate less repetitively for foreign ministers

    Bill Hayden
    Gareth Evans
    Alexander Downer
    Stephen Smith
    Kevin Rudd
    Bob Carr
    Julie Bishop

  10. More shut the feck up Abbott stories emerging.

    [HRABOVE (Ukraine), July 21 — The Dutch head of a team sent to identify the victims of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 praised the Ukrainian recovery workers who collected hundreds of bodies from a giant swathe of land in a war zone for doing a “hell of a job”.

    Peter van Vliet, leader of a 3-man team of Dutch body identification experts, the first international investigators to visit the crash area, said his priority would be getting hundreds of bodies now stored in refrigerated rail cars to a location where they can be identified and sent home.

    Despite reports that some of the bodies may have been looted and were never properly secured during days lying out in summer sun, van Vliet expressed admiration for the recovery crews that gathered them.

    “I’m very impressed about the work that was done over here,” he said after inspecting the main crash site, where bodies were still being found a day earlier pinned under chunks of aircraft wreckage.

    Citing the heat and the scale of the site, he said: “I think they did a hell of a job in a hell of a place.”]

    – See more at:

  11. GG

    The RC in SA is to cover up the fact they have already had two major inquiries into child abuse and have done nothing about them.

  12. Diogenes,

    If your saying nothing ever eventuates from RC’s, then I agree!

    It’s called the ciRCle of lies!

  13. ru

    It is our media that is giving a very skewered view of Abbott and his handling of,this tragedy. From my vantage point is all he has managed to do is criticise. It has been Malaysia and netherlands who have actually been proactive.

    As per usual our msm is absolutely shithouse

  14. ruawake,

    The results for the Indonesian presidential elections have already been released and can be seen on the Indonesian papers. It just hasn’t been officially announced. Prabowo may launch an appeal on the results, but it is most likely to fail with a margin of some 8 million votes.

  15. [The maddie fixer assessment may operate less repetitively for foreign ministers
    Bill Hayden
    Gareth Evans
    Alexander Downer
    Stephen Smith
    Kevin Rudd
    Bob Carr
    Julie Bishop]

    I’d class Smith as a ‘fixer’.

  16. [What I object to is the News Ltd talking up their dud leader with North Korean style rubbish on their front pages.]

    They really have jumped the shark in the last few weeks.

  17. Miserable Morrison facts dribbling out.

    [Jason Om ‏@jason_om 4m
    Defence says they’ve been on the ship since 29/06 #highcourt157]

  18. Getup! launched a campaign in Victoria to get people to switch power companies.

    It’s strange that getup seems to be promoting one power company over others but apparently, Powershop is one of the few companies that supports the current RET. Even the Red Energy I’m on who I thought was renewable has vested interest in lobbying for the RET to be reduced.

  19. I had to laugh.

    Jack the Insider ‏@JacktheInsider · 8m
    So I guess Chris Pyne is not on Jacqui Lambie’s list of potential suitors then.


    Jack the Insider ‏@JacktheInsider · 6m
    @John_Hanna Small hands, tiny little feet. You do the maths

  20. Do any of PB’s maritime experts have an idea of which Customs vessel has space for an extra 157 people?

    That is a fair number and suggests to me that they are probably being kept in fairly dire conditions.

    Three weeks now since they were picked up.

  21. The SMH has been in even more hyper bowl mode than the GG .This pure whale dreck ignores the fact that within hours of the crash Putin and the Dutch PM had called for the same thing. THE only possible stumbling block was that the Russians quite reasonable proviso that the wording did not apportion blame. Not naming a “guilty party” before an investigation would seem a pretty obvious start.

    [MH17: How Australia achieved what other nations could not

    That the resolution survived Russia’s power of veto with its language and intent largely intact was the result of a smart and astonishingly fast diplomatic effort led by Australia.]

  22. [Tim Nicholls held his seat when there were 5 Liberals in Qld Parliament.]

    I find it at least mildly remarkable that 3 of those 5 are now in the Ministry. Oh, and there’s Bruce Flegg.

  23. [Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.]

    No one seems to have commented on this.

    It’s an interesting figure, an estimate of the number of people (mostly, but not entirely Labor voters) who won’t vote for the Greens but don’t mind them. Presumably they want the ALP and Greens to work together.

  24. 87

    A bigger portion doesn’t think it makes a difference otherwise.

    The confusing part is that another question ask if they prefer a Senate majority or not.

  25. [
    Disagree 100 % …… I give anything right now to have a Leader that had the vision of Gough … and the acumen of Keating

    ….. instead we have a bullyboy thug …with a heart of malice ….who walks like he just crapped his pants and face like his nose just got a whiff of it ….

    Keating describes himself as a Maddie.

    And there are actually three categories. Maddie, Fixer and Straight Man. Well, according to Keating anyway

    Paul Keating has confessed to being a “maddie” as a political leader, saying the inspiration for many of his biggest projects came from getting as ”high as a kite, mad” listening to symphonies on a Saturday morning.
    “Politicians come in three varieties: straight men, fixers and maddies,” he declares in the final part of Keating, The Interviews, on ABC television on Tuesday, insisting the maddies, including Margaret Thatcher, are those who “charge in and get it don”.


    Read more:

  26. One glaring stat that comes from Essential is that 18% of those polled have no super. I realise sole traders and casuals may not get their entitlements but I find this figure alarmingly high.

  27. Stephen Quartermain – CH 10 news – sending Australian troops to the ‘crash scene ‘

    …. FMD – who writes this shit ….

  28. Summing up, both sides need to get their ducks in a row before Justice Hayne can refer the case to the full bench #highcourt157

    Matter adjourned until tomorrow afternoon

  29. Rua

    Thanks again. Doesn’t look like a place people should be kept 21 hours a day for three weeks

    Maximum security gaol is probably better.

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