Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. badcat

    The stupidity ,although to a degree understandable, that caused the delay of retrieving the bodies was a fine example of the need for someone able to knock both sides heads together.

    The separatists had said no until the Ukraine government agreed to a cease fire in the area and Kiev said no because “we don’t negotiate with terrorists”.

  2. WWP: no, I didn’t work directly for Rudd. But I have spoken to more than one person who has. They present a pretty clear picture.

  3. …… we have that bullyboythug Abbott on the ropes at the moment ….. and so we are back to the Hatfield vs the McCoys ….. again …

    mmmmm …..I wonder why we lose elections to Libs ….

  4. [
    I really wonder what the sentiments in Russia is right now. I’m sure Putin has his backers, but what about those who oppose him? What are they saying, or is everybody swept up in nationalistic pride now?
    ]

    I saw mention of a poll the other day that had is approval rating at 83%. This was in the wake of the annexing of the Crimea.

  5. badcat

    […… we have that bullyboythug Abbott on the ropes at the moment ….. and so we are back to the Hatfield vs the McCoys ….. again …

    mmmmm …..I wonder why we lose elections to Libs ….]

    Exactly! Sheer stupidity!

  6. bemused@150. Not the Israeli worldview I’m afraid. Israel has always stated that their policy is to “pay back ten for one” as a deterrent. They are, after all, a nation surrounded by many tens of millions of people who want to wipe them off the map, so they need to be pretty tough.

    Maybe they are a nation that should never have existed in the first place. But they do. And they have to battle to survive.

  7. [ DisplayName

    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:13 am | Permalink

    I think that our muckings around here on PB don’t have much to do with winning or losing elections, badcat.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    ….. only to the fact that its replicated all over the place, other than here and the Libs love it ….such DISUNITY IS DEATH …..

    TA is our enemy – lose sight of that —- and kiss our ass goodbye for another 3 years next elction

    ….focus ….focus … FOCUS

  8. mb

    I don’t think you can “employ” someone who is a known quantity and then turn around and say how shocked you are when they turn out to be just as you expected.

  9. meher

    We all know you hate Rudd enough already – we get it!

    Spoken to more than one person who did?

    That will do it for you! Very scientific!

    Get over yourself and concentrate the real enemy we have at the moment.

  10. pritu@138

    Back to Rudd-Gillard. Ho bloody hum!
    Please people, enough already!

    Re. The Neilsen. I’m appalled that there are still people out there who support this infamous bunch of louts calling themselves the Australian government. Just when I thought he couldn’t sink any lower, Abbott began to sing the grovelling praises of the ignominious Japanese Imperial Army whose record remains fully unacknowledged and properly restituted for. As someone who only knew his father for the first 3 years of my life before he was taken away for the kind of treatment portrayed in The Railway Man I am still seeing red. The bastard!

    I am sorry to hear about your father.

    Mine fought in the Middle East and Italy and so never directly encountered the Japanese. But he was well aware of their sheer bastardry and I grew up knowing quite a bit about it. But not as much as I now know.

    I grew up around the corner from “Sandakan Road” oblivious of that grim story.

    I have met some very nice young Japanese people and I do not hold them in any way responsible for that past. But it is shameful that they are unaware of their nations grim history.

  11. I’m not sure how much leverage Putin has over the rebels in terms of allowing an international investigation of MH 17 and repatriation of passengers’ remains.

    By all accounts, the rebels seem like a fairly disorganised rabble with no clear leadership. Supplying them with weaponry is one thing, controlling how they use it is another.

    Sending in Russian troops to take control of the rebels at the crash site is an obvious no-no as it would appear to be an invasion rather than a humanitarian gesture.

    This is the biggest dilemma facing not only Russia but also the EU and the US. How can the rebels be persuaded (or even forced) to co-operate in the investigation and recovery effort?

    Skilful negotiators are needed here – not those who practise megaphone diplomacy.

  12. MTBW@146

    guytaur

    I see a bad poll is out for the LNP.

    So its back to Rudd/Gillard and bash the Greens.


    Spot on!

    And as usual, you can trace it back to its usual source.

  13. [ Diogenes

    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:26 am | Permalink

    Did the Hatfields and the McCoys make up in the end?
    ]

    ————————————

    The Hatfield–McCoy feud (1863–1891) involved two families of the West Virginia–Kentucky area along the Tug Fork of the Big Sandy River. The Hatfields of West Virginia were led by William Anderson “Devil Anse” Hatfield while the McCoys of Kentucky were under the leadership of Randolph “Ole Ran’l” McCoy. Those involved in the feud were descended from Ephraim Hatfield (born c. 1765) and William McCoy (born c. 1750). The feud has entered the American folklore lexicon as a metonym for any bitterly feuding rival parties.

    MORE : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hatfield%E2%80%93McCoy_feud

  14. [WWP: no, I didn’t work directly for Rudd. But I have spoken to more than one person who has. They present a pretty clear picture.]

    I see so some completely neutral observers. I’m wondering given absolutely everyone knew how bad he was why they didn’t work out that removing would create a really significant problem for the next three years, or worse if they knew they’d have a problem for the next three years why they didn’t have a plan to deal with it?

    Seems to me to be almost entirely Monday Quarterbacking. They got rid of Rudd without thinking, and then when things didn’t go so well the stories started leaking to ‘explain’ why they did something that so clearly failed. The only real choice they had was to rewrite history to make leaving him in place (the only intelligent option for grownups) look even more stupid. No one would be stupid enough to fall for a stupid stuff like that would they?

    Oh wait … roflmao.

  15. [meher

    We all know you hate Rudd enough already – we get it!

    Spoken to more than one person who did?

    That will do it for you! Very scientific!

    Get over yourself and concentrate the real enemy we have at the moment.]

    Jesus. One could say the same thing to you. For all your pitching a fit about people talking about Rudd, since you’ve arrived here this morning all you’ve talked about is…..people talking about Rudd!!

  16. meher baba@157

    bemused@150. Not the Israeli worldview I’m afraid. Israel has always stated that their policy is to “pay back ten for one” as a deterrent. They are, after all, a nation surrounded by many tens of millions of people who want to wipe them off the map, so they need to be pretty tough.

    Maybe they are a nation that should never have existed in the first place. But they do. And they have to battle to survive.

    Yes, the Palestinians continue to be punished for the sins of the Nazis.

    My father fought in Palestine in WWII. There was no Israel. Now the Palestinians are largely dispossessed.

  17. I guess the greatest irony here, and a great credit to Credlin is on the PB world view, all the union heavies and all the intelligence and power in Caucus was insufficient to balance his incompetent showpony self, but one intelligent liberal woman can not only contain the incompetent show pony Abbott but make of him a masterful politician who brought down Gillard (Rudd have been brought down by friendly fire) and is now unthreatened by Labor and Greens combined.

    Either there is something wrong with the PB world view or Credlin is a genius and Labor is bereft of any talent at all.

  18. Everyone is entitled to their pov regarding former and current PMs. I will continue to comment on my disdain for PM Abbott, and for those who have something to say about Rudd, Gillard, Howard etc, are entitled to do so.

  19. confessions@168

    meher

    We all know you hate Rudd enough already – we get it!

    Spoken to more than one person who did?

    That will do it for you! Very scientific!

    Get over yourself and concentrate the real enemy we have at the moment.


    Jesus. One could say the same thing to you. For all your pitching a fit about people talking about Rudd, since you’ve arrived here this morning all you’ve talked about is…..people talking about Rudd!!

    Li’l miss innocent returns after having set the whole thing in motion earlier today.

    Standard MO.

  20. bemused

    For goodness sake if you cant handle the discussion, do something else. Honestly teenagers are more mature than you lot

  21. Meher Baba

    I think you may need to read about the lead up to the split between Israel and the rest of the Mandate of Palestine. You can’t hope to see a solution if you don’t understand what the problem is.

    The people who were living in that area were denied an opportunity to choose their future. They had their future imposed on them. And although the Jewish people were happy and managed to fight and win (initially) the conflict goes on because the initial two state solution was not accepted by the majority of people who lived in the area.

    There will be no solution to the Arab-Israeli problem until the initial injustice is addressed.

    Personally I can’t see any solution, neither side particularly wants peace but appearances. Israel appears bent on trying to keep their conquests and The Palestinians will continue to try and fight Israel.

  22. WeWantPaul@170

    I guess the greatest irony here, and a great credit to Credlin is on the PB world view, all the union heavies and all the intelligence and power in Caucus was insufficient to balance his incompetent showpony self, but one intelligent liberal woman can not only contain the incompetent show pony Abbott but make of him a masterful politician who brought down Gillard (Rudd have been brought down by friendly fire) and is now unthreatened by Labor and Greens combined.

    Either there is something wrong with the PB world view or Credlin is a genius and Labor is bereft of any talent at all.

    Credlin is no fool. I have said before she is a very formidable woman in a number of respects.

    The proof? Just look at what she has managed to do with the material she has to work with.

  23. confessions

    [For all your pitching a fit about people talking about Rudd, since you’ve arrived here this morning all you’ve talked about is…..people talking about Rudd!!]

    Pitching a fit is not something I have ever heard before.

    Did you make that up?

  24. victoria@173

    bemused

    For goodness sake if you cant handle the discussion, do something else. Honestly teenagers are more mature than you lot

    I am handling the discussion perfectly well.

    But the tone of hysteria in your post suggests you are overdue for a cup of tea, a bex and a good lie down.

  25. A couple observations:

    Watched the Abbott 60 minutes interview, it happened to come on after The Voice Kids. Watched it with my usually Abbott worshipping Mother, who generally will not have a bad word said about Abbott without mounting a vigorous defense. Her comments during the interview were, “he’s floundering”. That was my observation exactly. He stammered and stuttered his way through the entire interview. He spoke with no authority at all. That’s why I just cannot see him getting a bounce from this situation. We can say what we like about Howard, but he would have got such a bounce, because he thrived in these situations, he came across with authority and as someone who was on top of things. The media can try and boost Abbott all they like, but I doubt anyone who watched that cringeworthy interview last night could have come away feeling like Abbott spoke with authority.

    Another friend also just raised the 60 minutes interview. She is someone who takes very little interest in Politics. She made similar points to my Mother. She went on to say that she has never known so many of her friends, usually very uninterested in Politics, to want to talk about their feelings towards this Government. The mood towards this Government really is vicious, and is showing no signs of easing off.

  26. [Credlin is no fool. I have said before she is a very formidable woman in a number of respects.

    The proof? Just look at what she has managed to do with the material she has to work with.]

    I have no doubt she is a very capable and competent woman, what surprises me is the PB world view requires the view that Labor had noone of similar capability and that all the union leaders and all the caucus members with their votes didn’t have a single person, or even a group of people who could do with Rudd what Credlin does with Abbott single handedly apparently.

  27. Does 60mins put their episodes online somewhere? I wouldn’t mind catching Abbott’s interview if it’s possible to watch online.

  28. matt31

    [She went on to say that she has never known so many of her friends, usually very uninterested in Politics, to want to talk about their feelings towards this Government. The mood towards this Government really is vicious, and is showing no signs of easing off.]

    Same here I get the same reaction.

  29. matt31

    [She went on to say that she has never known so many of her friends, usually very uninterested in Politics, to want to talk about their feelings towards this Government. The mood towards this Government really is vicious, and is showing no signs of easing off.]

    Same here I get the same reaction.

  30. Mortlock

    having a perfunctory line in a policy document saying ‘of course we’re for motherhood and apple pie’ is not the same as actually caring.

    All the public utterances from the (parliamentary) Greens – and it doesn’t matter how beautiful their bits of paper are, if they never talk about them, they may as well not exist – clearly shows that their focus is entirely on local arrivals (and those seeking to be) rather than on refugees as a global problem.

    I’m not blaming the Greens for that in particular, it’s a problem common to humanity.

    All I was saying was that it illustrates exactly the principle fran was talking about – we ignore wider problems in favour of the ones which affect us directly.

  31. WeWantPaul@183

    Credlin is no fool. I have said before she is a very formidable woman in a number of respects.

    The proof? Just look at what she has managed to do with the material she has to work with.


    I have no doubt she is a very capable and competent woman, what surprises me is the PB world view requires the view that Labor had noone of similar capability and that all the union leaders and all the caucus members with their votes didn’t have a single person, or even a group of people who could do with Rudd what Credlin does with Abbott single handedly apparently.

    Yes, good point!
    I have had similar questions in my mind.
    Such a group should have been Cabinet, the whole Ministry or Caucus.

  32. The woman who interviewed Abbott put it to him that he’s been such a strong leader on the world stage. What? When?

  33. [ … Labor had noone of similar capability and that all the union leaders and all the caucus members with their votes didn’t have a single person, or even a group of people who could do with Rudd what Credlin does with Abbott single handedly apparently. ]

    The difference is that Abbott is a pliable fool who knows he is way out his depth.

    Rudd may have been many things, but he was neither a fool nor pliable – and he always thought he was far more capable than he proved to be.

  34. confessions

    The msm have been in hagiography mode since the tragedy. They are beyond pathetic. But we already knew that

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