What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.
UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.
[one side with decent intelligent politicians as a rule]
Of course they generally guarantee a quota of troglodyte nongs lest they appear too unbalanced.
What a strange world …
3,000 Africans in boats escorted to safety in Italy by the Italian Navy.
Today, Scott Morrison has granted a permanent visa to a refugee who arrived by boat, despite fighting the boy’s case in the High Court and signalling he would not be swayed when the court found against him.
BTW, does anyone know why Psephos no longer posts here?
bemused @ 593: Good question. On the face of it s. 64 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 ties the right to enrol to the possession of a similar right for federal elections, and there, you are disqualified if serving a gaol sentence of three years or more.
slothy@597
Yes, you seem to get the point.
An alternate solution is to commence negotiations in good faith to restore some reasonable position to the Palestinians that is consistent as far as possible with what was provided in that declaration.
Is it possible to hold someone on the “low seas”?
Earlier today some bright spark decided to equate Abbott with Ghandi.
Well, funnily enough that person was correct.
Ghandi was a misogynist of the first order.
And, unfortunately, for all his peace-lovin’ resistant romantic bullshit, he enshrined in the Indian psyche a deep-seated hatred of women.
Ghandi said women were responsible for men’s inability to control themselves.
Forget Islamic stupidity. Hinduism is right up there with shaming women and excusing murder.
No pink or blue there. Just a fucked up bloke who practised one thing and preached another.
kezza
one day you’re all ‘men are inherently bad because they’re men’ and ‘if women ruled the world, things would be different’ — the next you’re disputing whether gender differences exist.
All I can say is that there is nothing in my neice’s upbringing which can account for her extreme femininity. It puzzles the whole family…but we accept that that’s who she is, and don’t chase after her with sets of overalls and offers to take her rock climbing..
Boer
I don’t think it’s a case of ‘no longer posts here’ – my impression is that he’s travelling.
BW
[BTW, does anyone know why Psephos no longer posts here?]
I think he’s still looking for a job.
@606
Depends on how much latitude they are given.
zoomster@608
My grand-daughter is very ‘girly’ in many respects, if I can use that expression, but she is also quite physical and does stuff like climb trees and is far more advanced at swimming than I was at her age.
The two aspects seem to co-exist comfortably within her.
Some great tweets on QnA tonight. For the first time in her life Amanda Vanstone probably feels out of her depth.
zoomster
[one day you’re all ‘men are inherently bad because they’re men’ and ‘if women ruled the world, things would be different’]
No, I’m not. That’s what you assign to me.
And you take such succour in defending men, to suck up to them, despite what I have to say about my own sons.
It’s women like you who give me the shits, quite frankly.
Oooooh, I’m on your side, men. Don’t listen to her. Don’t even start to think about how history has treated women.
You don’t even want to address the inequality because you have sons. And you want them to do well. I want my boys to do well too, but not at the expense of women.
Sorry, buddy, I’m not giving up years of fighting for equality just because I gave birth to sons.
Rossmore @ 613: Not much danger for Ms Vanstone even if she gets out of her depth: fat floats on water.
Q&A is great tonight
21 July 2014 will go down as a significant day in Oz State and Federal LNP history … The day when Newman and Morrison both flinched and backed down. The teflon has cracked.
kezza
That description of me is so wrong it’s laughable.
I dare say I’ve done far more to address inequality in my lifetime than you have.
True feminism is recognising that gender stereotyping works both ways – and the old patriachal structures were just as restrictive for men as they were for women.
You can’t get past your own issues – fair enough, you had the rough end of several pineapples.
But to decide that one sex is the problem isn’t the answer to anything.
Talk about laugh in my family.
All the girls kept giving birth to sons. Which meant, of course, that their were lots of family names being carried on, but not ours
And all the sons’ wives kept giving birth to daughters. Which meant, of course, no family surname from my father.
Out of eight children, of which there were four boys, there is one son only per male child. The rest are girls.
And there are 36 grandkids.
Look out, my nieces might be after your sons.
@Rossmore/617
It’s a pitty our media hasn’t gone nuts regarding “massive backflip”.
Zoid 620 … Oh I expect the media will get there eventually. The Australian public have.
zoomster
[I dare say I’ve done far more to address inequality in my lifetime than you have.]
I dare say you have done a lot, but I doubt you have done more than me.
I live it. You pretend.
I only need to log in here each day to see you blasting the Greens, for instance, to know that you’re too one-eyed to ever give ground to others.
But that’s you.
Latest mail on RC into union corruption.
There is an attempt to link bikies, drugs and prostitution racket at the Desal plant project here in Victoria to the CFMEU. The witness list for hearing includes union organisers at the time who will be called to give evidence.
The Commission may get more than they bargained for. Witnesses to be called will be telling the Commission that the management brought in bikies to act as security and spy on workers doing their job. The company who run the project made an absolute motza and is hoping their dirty secrets will stay covered.
Er, what?
Blasting the Greens means I’m not a feminist?
Ah well, at least I can think in a straight line….
Actually, I blast the Labor party occasionally, too.
My problem with the Greens is that the Greens are too one eyed to accept criticism.
bemused @ 605
[An alternate solution is to commence negotiations in good faith to restore some reasonable position to the Palestinians that is consistent as far as possible with what was provided in that declaration.]
I can’t see a one state solution ever getting off the ground. There is just too much bad/spilled blood, too much distrust which goes back to the early 1920s, so nearly 100 years.
I think the only answer is a genuine state for the Palestinians, not the faux crap Israel has tried to impose during past peace efforts and an Israel with a much smaller, non nuke, military to deter it from throwing its weight around. Ideally, for a few decades without either having any military capability with each state’s security guaranteed by others, however, that might be too hard a sell.
The thing that really shits me about this mess is that if the Jews had come in peace with an offer to work with the Palestinians to build a great country that would almost certainly have succeeded. But the Zionists never intended to have anything other than a Jewish state. Plans to accomplish just that were first made in the 1920s, so can’t be excused as a reaction to the Holocaust. All such a huge waste.
Wow – Amanda Vanstone is fat … who’d have known based on all those stupid and offensive things she said and did in government and since.
kezza
[I live it. You pretend.]
Ah. So I dare say women come up to you in the street and tell you how they’ve been inspired by your example?
And that you changed the national lending policies of a major bank?
And that you mentor several women? (And was recently invited to mentor Koori women interested in entering public life?)
I haven’t done badly, really, for someone whose whole life is (apparently) a lie.
victoria @ 623
[The Commission may get more than they bargained for.]
Whoever said governments should never hold an enquiry they didn’t already know the answers to was one smart cookie. Fortunately, the liberals aren’t.
Slothy
The last RC, witness statements were omitted by the Commission as they saw fit. May well do that again. They dont call it a Kangaroo Court for nothing.
[zoomster
Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
Er, what?
Blasting the Greens means I’m not a feminist?]
Er, no.
I didn’t think you’d get my point. And here you go again, faking surprise. And pretending I’ve made an assertion that I haven’t.
What I meant was that you’re so used to deflecting anything that could possibly be construed as negative, as a politician, you readily put your perspective back on the person.
Politics 101.
But I’m not a politician. I don’t have to worry about how people perceive me. I can say exactly what I think about any given situation. But you have to construe, in case you need a vote.
That’s the difference between you and me.
So, when I mentioned the Greens, which I knew would get up your nose because since the last election you have blamed the Greens for all Labors woes, you can’t leave it behind.
You want someone to blame for Labor’s loss. And, to you, it’s the Greens. It was Labor who lost.
And I worked for Labor. Bloody hard. In an electorate much like yours. Although Labor had won here before.
And much as I would have liked you, or another Labor candidate, to win in Indi, I’m not sure I like your continued sour grapes over McGowan’s win.
So, yes, I’m a feminist. I didn’t learn my feminism from a book, or from some esoteric theory. My feminism is derived from the what I learned, and the way I was treated in my family. If you hadn’t already guessed.
But I don’t give up despite the shit thrown at me by the likes of Abbott, and I’m certainly not going to give up because of you.
I’m sorry if you were offended about my reaction to the way you treated your neighbour recently. But that just tells me you’re not really a country person, and your recent postings tell me you’re not really as flexible as you pretend.
Excellent piece from John Oliver on US prison system:
http://youtu.be/_Pz3syET3DY
Devastating really …
[zoomster
Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 10:43 pm | PERMALINK
kezza
I live it. You pretend.
Ah. So I dare say women come up to you in the street and tell you how they’ve been inspired by your example?
And that you changed the national lending policies of a major bank?
And that you mentor several women? (And was recently invited to mentor Koori women interested in entering public life?)
I haven’t done badly, really, for someone whose whole life is (apparently) a lie.]
Geez you’re terrific. You’re a star. You’re a legend.
My mother was like you. Except she didn’t have to tell people, she lived it. And was recognised for her contribution.
No, I haven’t done what you or my mother did. But I have lived my mother’s example. And I feel good about that.
Now, if only I had the gonads to beat my own drum.
Shut up, Kezza.
Kezza2 Self righteousness is thy name. Is humility and balance in your dictionary? Just askin…
kezza
My continued sour grapes? Ah, as evinced by the messages I’ve received from McGowan thanking me for defending her in the local media….
And I have a reputation for speaking the truth as I see it, regardless of whether or not it losses me votes – or upsets people. I’ve never found that telling it like it is hurts in the long run, so I’ve never hesitated to do it. (And surely the whole saga with my neighbour shows that I don’t back down because I’m worried someone might be upset with me??)
As I said at the time, your reaction to the way I treated my neighbour (er, not the way he treated me?) was more about the issues you seem to have with me rather than the actual events. (Particularly as he is the city person in the scenario…)
But anyway, as not-a-country-person, I’m off to bed, knackered after spending most of the day trying to break a pony to lead….
Sorry about all that, William…I’m orf now.
Zoomster … you’re doing a great job in Indi. Hang in there…
[William Bowe
Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:02 pm | PERMALINK
Shut up, Kezza.]
Charming, as usual.
[Rossmore
Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 11:03 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza2 Self righteousness is thy name. Is humility and balance in your dictionary? Just askin…]
Probably just saying what you’d like to say.
But then again, I suspect every time you comment, someone’s not out after your tail.
I hope you realise that zoomster is the one who attacks my comments, not the other way round.
Is it a sin to defend myself?
Powerful piece in Haaretz on Gaza by Amira Haas
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.606231
William Bowe@634
I was just about to comment on how much I was enjoying the biffo between kezza2 and zoomster. 🙁
zoomster
[My continued sour grapes? Ah, as evinced by the messages I’ve received from McGowan thanking me for defending her in the local media….]
Irrelevant.
[And I have a reputation for speaking the truth as I see it, regardless of whether or not it losses me votes – or upsets people. I’ve never found that telling it like it is hurts in the long run, so I’ve never hesitated to do it.]
Good for you.
[(And surely the whole saga with my neighbour shows that I don’t back down because I’m worried someone might be upset with me??)]
Yeah. But it was pretty stupid.
[As I said at the time, your reaction to the way I treated my neighbour (er, not the way he treated me?) was more about the issues you seem to have with me rather than the actual events. (Particularly as he is the city person in the scenario…)]
Absolutely nothing to do with you, but a lot to do with how country neighbours treat each other.
Country people have to live, and let live, with each other. You have to depend on each other.
You don’t get the cops out for anything other than the most serious offence.
You obviously felt comfortable getting up in the middle of the night to go to your neighbour’s place.
You discovered he was pissed (not angry, drunk). And he wasn’t making much sense. He’d crashed his car. You checked your horses. You knew he’d gotten it wrong.
Yet you still rang the police. Why?
[But anyway, as not-a-country-person, I’m off to bed, knackered after spending most of the day trying to break a pony to lead….]
Yep. Well, so you have horsey credentials. So what. Doesn’t prove you understand country folk.
Bemused 641. It’s not biffo. It’s rank idiocy.
Breaking News:
News
World news
Israel
Gaza hospital hit in fatal Israeli attack
Yet another glorious victory for the West. Maybe they’ll shell some kindergartens next.
Kezza, the ethics you espouse are not those of the “country”, but of the criminal underclass. It is gravely insulting to country people to assert that you are in some sense their authentic voice.
Russian Defense Ministry says did not detect any missiles launched near #MH17 flight path, asks U.S. to share satellite images
Russia did not deliver any SA-11 buk missile systems to separatists in eastern Ukraine: Russian Defence Ministry #MH17
Above tweets are from Reuters
Anyhoo night all
fran @ 632 – that was pretty good.
I can’t believe sesame street has to explain prison to kids … that is so wrong.
If you look at
” rel=”nofollow”>One of slave states at the time of the civil war you might notice something interesting.
Rossmore@643
Lighten up Rossmore or I will assault you with some errant apostrophes. 😛
Night all… remember this date, 21 July 2014, the day the Tory LNP hegemony in Oz first cracked.