Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor

Personal ratings for Clive Palmer and a preferred Treasurer question spice up a poll result that’s otherwise much like all the others lately.

What I believe will be the farewell Nielsen poll for the Fairfax papers shows no dividend to Tony Abbott of the carbon tax repeal or (so far) the MH17 response, with Labor’s lead up from 53-47 at last month’s poll to 54-46. The poll of 1400 respondents was conducted from Thursday to Sunday, from which you can draw your own conclusions about its likely responsiveness to what’s occurred over that time. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 40%, with the Coalition steady at 39%, the Greens down one to 12% and Palmer United steady on 5%. However, Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have improved: his approval is up three to 38% with disapproval down four to 56%, the gap on preferred prime minister narrows from 47-40 to 46-41, and while Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 41% and up three on disapproval to 44%. Even more entertainingly, there are personal ratings for Clive Palmer (approval 37%, disapproval 51%) and a preferred treasurer poll (Joe Hockey’s lead narrowing from 51-34 in a poll conducted I-don’t-know-how-long-ago to 42-42 now.

UPDATE: Phil Coorey in the Financial Review relates results on the leaders’ personal characteristics; more from Michelle Grattan at The Conversation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. bemused

    Ukraine for keeping the flight path open despite an aircraft previously shot down at high altitude ? I’m sure the lawyers will think of someone.

  2. poroti@501

    bemused

    Ukraine for keeping the flight path open despite an aircraft previously shot down at high altitude ? I’m sure the lawyers will think of someone.

    There will be buck passing on steroids.

    The normal flight path was south of where the plane was shot down and not directly over hostilities.

    The flight was diverted north over where it was shot down to avoid developing thunderstorms. So sue the air traffic controller who directed the diversion or authorised it?

  3. I wonder if the guy who shot down MH17 made two bad decisions on that day; one, pulling the trigger; the second, hightailing back to Russia.

  4. [@BreakingNBC: BREAKING: #IDF forces use phosphorus weaponry on heavily-populated districts in #Gaza http://t.co/C4g6lsEE5G%5D

    [White phosphorus is a material made from a common allotrope of the chemical element phosphorus that is used in smoke, tracer, illumination and incendiary munitions.[1] Other common names include WP, and the slang term “Willie Pete,” which is dated from its use in Vietnam, and is still sometimes used in military jargon.[2] As an incendiary weapon, white phosphorus burns fiercely and can ignite cloth, fuel, ammunition and other combustibles. …]

    Apparently …

    [There are multiple international laws that could be seen to regulate white phosphorus use.[93] Article 1 of Protocol III of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons defines an incendiary weapon as “any weapon or munition which is primarily designed to set fire to objects or to cause burn injury to persons through the action of flame, heat, or combination thereof, produced by a chemical reaction of a substance delivered on the target”. The same protocol prohibits the use of said incendiary weapons against civilians (already forbidden by the Geneva Conventions) or in civilian areas. The convention also defines weapons which are not to be considered to be incendiary weapons.]

  5. [Look, I am one of Putin’s biggest critics here, but the Palestinians’ current problems are largely the result of Hamas and other jihadist cretins.]

    Sorry to be rude but this is f*#ken bollox.

    The Palestinians problems come from the Israeli far right which obviously isn’t gonna stop till the palestinians are dead or gone.

    How many acts of violence by Israeli settlers living illegally in palestinian land are there every year? Do any of you supporters of Israel know? How many acts of economic warfare on palestinian farmers happen every year? How many olive trees are destroyed (maybe its were destroyed now cos there are none left)? Don’t these things matter?

    You lot expect palestinians to sit there and take these constant abuses, then they get compared to animals – denying their very humanity.

    Its bullshit.

    MB You ask how Palestinians feel that Hamas is sacrificing them for whatever reason. How many times during ceasefires have Palestinians been killed since Rabin was shot? You probably think none but its been happening non stop for early 20 years.

    It doesn’t matter what happens the end result is Palestinians get killed by Israelis. Its either protected settlers attacking them or the IDF when they fight back.

  6. [poroti
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 6:33 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza2

    Claims from the government in Kiev has the same believability rating as claims from Moscow.]

    Or claims from the current Australian government, for that matter.

  7. [It is disgusting. It is abhorrent. And there is no justification for it. None.]

    Well said. Yet still some seek to justify Israel’s actions. It seems to some that whatever depravity Israel stoops to can be justified.

    It is just truly sickening.

  8. Fran
    [@BreakingNBC: BREAKING: #IDF forces use phosphorus weaponry on heavily-populated districts in #Gaza http://t.co/C4g6lsEE5G%5D

    Let’s see if world leaders have the gonads to prosecute these war crimes.

    Netanyahu has already told Obama, Kerry and the UN to get stuffed. It’s time for the full force of international intervention.

    Plus, on Friday he said he will never agree to Palestinian sovereignty and that has always been his view.

  9. [
    lizzie
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    There was an article the other day (sorry, no link) complaining that it was now virtually impossible to buy any other colour than pink for girls’ toys. This is sales pushing and brainwashing.
    ]

    And what are exactly are “girl toys”.

    My little gradbaughter is being given toy trucks, logo blocks, toy front end loaders, books, paint and toy tools. She was born into an engineering family and in my view is showing dam good engineering tendencies, seems very interested in working how stuff works. From memory none of the above were pink.

  10. If Australia didn’t have a seat on the UN Security Council I doubt Putin would have bothered speaking to Abbott. It would be interesting to hear his opinion now on whether it was a complete waste of tax payers money getting there.

    [“All other things being equal, yes, better that we are on the Security Council than off it. But it was never worth the $40 million plus that this government has spent just to win a bronze medal at the United Nations,’’ he said.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/abbott_under_fire_for_gillard_gaffe_Z7UkIiXiNBuMkfOWaYNFRO

  11. I call for the full implementation of the Balfour Declaration as a starting point.
    [“His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”]
    Particularly the section I have highlighted.

    I thank Dee for posting it @475.

  12. frednk

    Believe me, you’ll know when you granddaughter is being pushed into pink duties.

    So, more strength to her parents. And to her grandparents. Don’t ever let colour stop her from learning anything other than procreation.

  13. MTBW

    For a while there reading what you said, I thought I was in some kind of alternate reality, a bizzaro universe!

  14. [ It would be interesting to hear his opinion now on whether it was a complete waste of tax payers money getting there.]

    They gave up that charade the day after the election.

  15. Appropo of all this pink clothing stuff, what I really want to know is why Newman’s pink jumpsuit policy farce didn’t crop up in other states as a complete and total ‘OMG look at those numpty Qlders’ laughathon? It was just begging to be ridiculed by saner Australians. The kind of story they run AFTER the weather at the end of the news to leave viewers on a high note after depressing the hell out of them with all the crap happening around the joint.

  16. I think Lego is the best think one can give any kids. I refuse to accept the fact that Lego felt the need to make a girls’ line of toys, I like the fact that it is unisex.

    I also refuse to follow that pink is for girls stereotype while boys are allowed to pick from blue, green, black or red.

    A friend of mine homeschooled his two daughters and told them they can pick any colour they want. Their favourite colours are red and green or black if I can recall.

  17. confessions

    [They gave up that charade the day after the election.]

    A bit like their claim to be the adults.

  18. Raaraa@519

    I think Lego is the best think one can give any kids. I refuse to accept the fact that Lego felt the need to make a girls’ line of toys, I like the fact that it is unisex.

    I also refuse to follow that pink is for girls stereotype while boys are allowed to pick from blue, green, black or red.

    A friend of mine homeschooled his two daughters and told them they can pick any colour they want. Their favourite colours are red and green or black if I can recall.

    Yes, Lego is unisex and my grand-daughter loves it.
    She also loves her bike (pink) and loves swimming.
    Otherwise all her toys are identifiably traditional girl toys and that’s what she wants.

  19. [
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 7:46 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    Believe me, you’ll know when you granddaughter is being pushed into pink duties.

    So, more strength to her parents. And to her grandparents. Don’t ever let colour stop her from learning anything other than procreation.
    ]
    The granddaughter is to a daughter. It seems to me pink is a very limiting colour.

    Never seen pink, spanners, guitars, drums, pianos, books, it’s only one colour in a set of paints, one colour pencil. Nope the problem is with people that only select pink toys; there is actually quite a limited selection in that colour.

  20. Why doesn’t Abbott have a bloody nap.

    [In separate phone calls, Mr Putin promised Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte “full co-operation” in retrieving the bodies and black boxes, while Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott said the Russian leader had said “all the right things”. (Oh really. Isn’t he such an embarrassment.)

    Both countries suffered heavy losses when Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was blown out of the sky on Thursday by what is believed to have been a surface-to-air missile, killing 298 and dramatically raising the stakes in Ukraine’s bloody three-month conflict.]

    Yeah. Well the Dutch suffered nearly 200 losses. The Malays upwards of 50. And in true Australian style, while we suffered 27 losses, we now lay claim to 10 more. Just like we claimed Olivia Newton-John, Russell Crowe and Phar Lap, as one of ours.

    Why do we suffer this embarrassment, time after time after time.

    Intolerable nationalism.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/vladimir-putin-breaks-silence-on-mh17-crash-lets-not-politicise-this-tragedy-he-says-20140721-zva75.html#ixzz385yW7dp5

  21. Bemused

    Generally for deaths in an air disaster, relatives are entitled to fixed damages without proof of fault but must prove wilful misconduct on the part of the airline to obtain a larger sum.

    American courts found that the Warsaw Convention, the predecessor to the current Montreal Convention operated for terrorist caused deaths.

    Whether the convention would apply here would depend on whether Malaysia is a signatory

  22. Picking up the bodies and putting them into refrigeration carriages and sending the lot back to Holland seems like a very sensible thing to do to me. But oh no; for the nutters in the press this is chaotic.

  23. Bemused

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Convention

    About $180k strict liability (no ifs or buts) paid by the airline.

    Above that they can hide behind a third party.

    But a canny lawyer sues any party likely to be sensed to be even minutely liable, if the party has plenty of dosh. A capitulation and out of court settlement is always possible.

    MAS, Ukraine, Russia, whoever gave the advice about safety of high airspace …… they may all served as responsible individually and together.

    Who knows, I think they’ll get a bit, but certainly nothing near to true compensation for their loss …….. that amount of money just does not exist.

  24. Dee

    The Israeli leadership knows they can act with impunity because the Americans regime will protect them. That’s why they act as they do. The American regime is the key enabler here.

  25. frednk
    [Never seen pink, spanners, guitars, drums, pianos, books, it’s only one colour in a set of paints, one colour pencil. Nope the problem is with people that only select pink toys; there is actually quite a limited selection in that colour.]

    You haven’t lived, frednk. Pink’s everywhere. You must frequent the boys only aisle.

    Seriously, it’s beyond a joke. Separation of the sexes used only to be applied in Catholic schools.

  26. [Never seen pink, spanners, guitars, drums, pianos, books]

    Rock n Roll Barbie had a pink guitar. She also had a headset that wasn’t anatomically proportioned to the size of her head, but I’m guessing kids didn’t worry about that kind of stuff.

  27. I would be surprised if George Newhouse and Shine lawyers have not turned their minds to a representative action on the part of victims’ families.

  28. [
    kezza2
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:07 pm | Permalink
    ..

    You must frequent the boys only aisle.
    ]

    There is your problem kessa2; there is not such thing as a boy’s only isle, and if you think there is it is your problem; and if you think it is marked by blue you have a real colour issue.

    Confession, can’t say my daughter was into barbie dolls, she has a nice collection of tin Hobbit statues. They are silver.

  29. Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 4m

    Looks like @theqldpremier to call early election. Changing policies & apologising in a desperate bid to keep his job #polqld @PalmerUtdParty

  30. Clive getting cocky.

    Clive Palmer ‏@CliveFPalmer 1m

    Facts are Campbell Newman has lied before and will lie again. As he heads towards an early poll the state looks forward to a new government

  31. [ Separation of the sexes used only to be applied in Catholic schools.]

    Really? So the Anglican boys school my husband says he attended was a figment of his imagination?

  32. [
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:25 pm | Permalink

    There is no boys only aisle — but there is a pink one.
    ]
    Now be honest, the toy selection is pretty dam boring. Why would you buy girls or boys toys from that aisle?

  33. [Changing policies & apologising in a desperate bid to keep his job]

    Spoken like a true politician, or whatever.

  34. psyclaw@527

    Bemused

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Convention

    About $180k strict liability (no ifs or buts) paid by the airline.

    Above that they can hide behind a third party.

    But a canny lawyer sues any party likely to be sensed to be even minutely liable, if the party has plenty of dosh. A capitulation and out of court settlement is always possible.

    MAS, Ukraine, Russia, whoever gave the advice about safety of high airspace …… they may all served as responsible individually and together.

    Who knows, I think they’ll get a bit, but certainly nothing near to true compensation for their loss …….. that amount of money just does not exist.

    $75K, $180K, whatever.
    That is a lot more than the financial compensation to console other bereaved relatives, and even assist with expenses incurred, in many other circumstances. The typical amount being zero, zilch, nada.

  35. zoomster@537

    Separation of the sexes used only to be applied in Catholic schools.


    Really? So the Anglican boys school my husband says he attended was a figment of his imagination?

    Or the Boys High School I attended in NSW.

  36. frednk

    I have a neice who is a genuine Girl — to the shock of her mother and brothers – and WANTS things from the pink aisle.

  37. Beautiful, The Business on ABC reduces the whole MH370/MH17 issue to a financial struggle for the airlines survival.

  38. True

    If all the victims were killed while congregated anywhere else but a plane there would be no automatic compensation

  39. Re the inane banter here about gender-what-ever tonight is the lack of recognition that Pink (aka Alecia Moore) is a great musician and smart and an excellent role model for my teenage daughter

  40. Early Qld election?

    I thought we confirmed earlier in the thread that Newman was to be rolled by some other LNP figure?

  41. [
    zoomster
    Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 at 8:32 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    I have a neice who is a genuine Girl — to the shock of her mother and brothers – and WANTS things from the pink aisle.
    ]
    I think “genuine girl” should go in quotes. I have a daughter who completed her science degree, has more natural ability at building stuff than I will ever have, plays the drums and piano with some style and has a lovely granddaughter and in my view is a wonderful mom. She (and for that matter her mum) are genuine girls; and it has nothing to do with pink.

    As aside she told me she dumped one boyfiend because in her view it was pretty pathetic she had to change the tyre because he didn’t know how to; perhaps he spent too much time playing with pink toys.

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