BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. This presser demonstrates that Abbott has learned that stunting is not going to cut it in this matter. There is quite a bit more circumspect language here than there was in his earlier histrionics:

    http://www.pm.gov.au/media/2014-07-19/joint-press-conference-sydney

    Note the pattern of questioning in relation to who is not speaking to Bishop and Abbott. The reality is that Putin and his thugs will decide the degree of ‘investigation’ that occurs. Abbott will be faced with Morrison-style intransigence.

    Think: How dare anyone accuse the Russian Federation of burning the hands and arms of asylum seekers?

  2. The other interesting thing about the Abbott/Bishop approach is that these characters routinely and systematically denigrated the UN and its agencies while they were in Opposition. They also denigrated Rudd’s efforts to ensure that Australia had a seat on the Security Council.

    None of that international wrecking the joint stuff now…

    I wonder whether a single MSM journalist will pick up the irony…

  3. Take heed LNP: Stafford is just a QLD seat,yes,but its a massive rejection of the type of aggro,slash & burn, arrogant, environemtal vandalous, bullying ‘neoliberalism for idiots’ leadership style of the modern LNP, which Newman shares with Federal countrparts.

    Mark my words. You are heading for serious electoral pain with this latest crop of leaders.

  4. Boerwar

    [None of that international wrecking the joint stuff now…

    I wonder whether a single MSM journalist will pick up the irony…]

    Our msm dont do irony

  5. Not to worry conservative voters. Tomorrow morning Andrew Bolt will explain how the result has no federal implications at all. In fact Andrew will explain that the real reason voters are turning away from the LNP in Queensland is that Campbell is too much of a leftie.

  6. v
    true. Mr Sheridan must be kicking himself… he is in the US for a fortnight during a lot of sound and light in foreign affairs…

  7. [peppy7
    Posted Saturday, July 19, 2014 at 8:24 pm | Permalink

    Not to worry conservative voters. Tomorrow morning Andrew Bolt will explain how the result has no federal implications at all. In fact Andrew will explain that the real reason voters are turning away from the LNP in Queensland is that Campbell is too much of a leftie.]

    Nah. Too complicated. Bolt will blame Labor.

  11. Boerwar:

    Out of our office footy tipping comp only 5/30 tipped Carlton. Nobody tipped Saints, and nobody has tipped GWS.

    I see unhappy faces come Monday.

  14. Boerwar:

    Our tipping comp is perilously placed. I’m hanging onto the top 3 by a whisker, hence my tipping with head instead of heart in the Blues-North match. If only I’d gone heart!

    Those 5 happy faces are well down the ladder and no threat. Meanwhile those of us at the pointy end of the table are all separated by one point. It’s a ripper season in our office comp!

  16. Tomorrow the Federal Libs will say the by election results have no federal implications at all. The Queensland Libs will say it’s all about the Federal Budget. Should be fun watching them all squirm.

  21. I know nothing of qld politics, but is it inconceivable that Newman could be dumped? The Victorian libs did it to Ted, it happened in the NT and to Rudd as well.

    I don’t doubt that the talent pool is shallow but lack of talent was never a handicap in politics

  25. Just arrived home after 2 hour drive from Sydney and the Beatles White Album Concert at Opera House.

    Radio station surfing and stumbled on Abbott talking.

    He is fighting to ensure investigators/other necessary workers can attend the crash site without being “molested”.

    Now I know the old use of “molested” included meanings such as to interfere with, or to annoy …… fairly low key forms of oppression. But its common use now refers to sexual assault, particularly of children.

    So did Abbott mean he wants investigators not to be annoyed or interfered with in some relatively mild way (old meaning), and he’s fighting internationally especially at the UN to achieve this, or was this yet another example of Abbott-off-the-Credlin-leash once again putting his hoof in his gob.

    He is a fine PM …… and particularly articulate …… we are all so very very lucky!

  26. Re leadership changesz
    __________
    The Vic Libs dumped Bailleau in a complex situation to do with Shaw the Indie in Frankston…but the latest polls show a terrible result for them…and a Fed vote of 41% in some polls
    Napthine seems as doomed Newman ,,, more so I think,given the Vics dislike of Abbottas shown in the polls
    He is very unpopular here in Melbourne too

  27. It was interesting to see the suggestion in comments earlier today that the federal LNP may be looking overseas for the next Treasury Secretary.

    All the ALP’s Christmases seem to be coming at once. If the government gets someone who doesn’t understand – and I mean really understand – how the public service works, there will be many more tears before bedtime. And let’s face it: why would a first rate person from overseas want to come to Australia to work for the Abbott government? They could only hope to get another ideologue of the Wilson/Donnelly type, who would be torn to pieces in short order.

  28. God save us

    Colin Barnett ‏@PremierofWA · 2h
    The 18.6% swing notwithstanding, well done to @theqldpremier and @LNPQLD for the strong performance in #staffordvotes

  29. AA @ 1978: That’s either a fake account, or a subtle insult from Mr Barnett, the implication being that given the LNP’s performance in government, the swing could have been expected to be even bigger.

  32. A map showing that MAS aircraft had previously flown south of the route taken by MH17 in the past has been posted here a few times with the implication that the company had made a mistake in using the northern corridor for MH17.

    One explanation may be that it finally was heeding a FAA regulation banning American airlines from flying over Crimea and surrounding areas which are south of where MH17 was shot down. There was a FAA NOTAM warning of the potential for conflicting orders from Ukrainian and Russian air controllers for the northern corridors, but not about a risk of being attacked.

  33. Back 8 hours ago Confessions and Centre asked why the plane was shot down? As far as I can see no answers have been forthcoming.

    I’d have thought that there has been enough consistent info around from many aviation and military weapons experts of various nationalities to suggest that there is a very high probability that rebels in the East of Ukraine close to the Russian border thought they were aiming at a Ukraine transport aircraft, and stupidly, incompetently, accidentally, carelessly and criminally shot down MH17.

    The eventual investigation might find differently, but for now this is clearly the most likely explanation.

    If this is the case, then the question “why” is a bit of a non sequitur.

  35. slothy@1982

    A map showing that MAS aircraft had previously flown south of the route taken by MH17 in the past has been posted here a few times with the implication that the company had made a mistake in using the northern corridor for MH17.

    One explanation may be that it finally was heeding a FAA regulation banning American airlines from flying over Crimea and surrounding areas which are south of where MH17 was shot down. There was a FAA NOTAM warning of the potential for conflicting orders from Ukrainian and Russian air controllers for the northern corridors, but not about a risk of being attacked.

    The southern corridor still passed to the north of Crimea if I read the maps correctly. It seems to have passed between the two areas of conflict / possible conflict.

    That makes perfect sense to me. Why take unnecessary risks?

  36. [The eventual investigation might find differently, but for now this is clearly the most likely explanation.]

    Putin won’t let investigators within 10 miles of the people who did this.

  37. psyclaw@1983

    Back 8 hours ago Confessions and Centre asked why the plane was shot down? As far as I can see no answers have been forthcoming.

    I’d have thought that there has been enough consistent info around from many aviation and military weapons experts of various nationalities to suggest that there is a very high probability that rebels in the East of Ukraine close to the Russian border thought they were aiming at a Ukraine transport aircraft, and stupidly, incompetently, accidentally, carelessly and criminally shot down MH17.

    The eventual investigation might find differently, but for now this is clearly the most likely explanation.

    If this is the case, then the question “why” is a bit of a non sequitur.

    You cannot sensibly attempt to answer “why” until you have a clear answer to “who”. And “who” would include the chain of command up to whoever made the decision to fire.

  38. Diogenes@1986

    The eventual investigation might find differently, but for now this is clearly the most likely explanation.


    Putin won’t let investigators within 10 miles of the people who did this.

    Surely it is in Putin’s interests to have some local separatist commander take the rap?

    That takes a lot of the heat off him and Russia.

  39. Diogenes,

    As had been pointed out before your comment a few hours back that only 8 victims were to attend the Melbourne conference, I understand that more than 100 were to attend the conference out of which a smaller number, perhaps single digits, were VIP researchers.

  40. Goodness me . You cant get this man off our screens at the moment

    [A not to be missed #insiders tomorrow. @frankellyabc to interview PM @TonyAbbottMHR. Panel: @lenoretaylor, Gerard Henderson & @PhillipCoorey]

  43. @Victoria/1990

    If this is way to try and win his voters confidence, I think LNP will end up with the same drama with ALP did.

    More on TV/Radio = bad.

  44. Diogenes

    As I wrote yesterday, I think Putin will be judged very harshly if he fails to support and facilitate an investigation.

    If and when Merkel gets fair dinkum with him, real pressure will be able to be applied.

    As to apprehending the actual shooters if they are Russian, Putin might well copy the USA example and oppose apprehension and prosecution of his soldiers in International Tribunals and refuse to recognise any relevant international laws and jurisdiction.

  45. Fess/zoidlord

    I dont see how Abbott talking about this horrendous event makes him look any more appealing to the public.

    It is a sad and tragic event. No one can feel positive about any outcome or otherwise

  46. [ there is a very high probability that rebels in the East of Ukraine close to the Russian border thought they were aiming at a Ukraine transport aircraft, and stupidly, incompetently, accidentally, carelessly and criminally shot down MH17. ]

    Yup, i made a similar assertion last night. I still reckon that its the most likely explanation. The only dispute is your use if “accidental”. Was no accident.

  48. OMG Turned on the golf on BBC to watch, and news came on no WARNNG Tony Abbott came on reading from an auto cue about the plane and even got muddled up How Embarrassing

  49. psyclaw

    Yes, the US routinely ignores any international organisation and seldom ratifies any agreements.

    It’s pretty easy for Putin to pretend to cooperate with an investigation and make sure no-one gets caught. He wasn’t head of the KGB for nothing.

  50. No doubt Abbott will get a poll boost from recent events. Its a gift horse for the LNP. But I cant see it as a game changer and when this settles expect the poor polling to resume….

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