The only new federal polling result we look to be getting this week, the regularly fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, has Labor up a point on two-party preferred to lead 53-47, as the bad result which saw them drop two points a fortnight ago washes out of the system. On the primary vote, Labor is up two to 40% and the Coalition down one to 39%, with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. We also have Essential’s monthly leader approval ratings, which have Tony Abbott down one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 58%, Bill Shorten down two to 36% and down one to 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-36 to 37-34. Other questions find approval of the government’s handling of boat arrivals up two since March to 41% and disapproval down three to 35%, with 27% thinking the government too tough, 18% too soft, and 36% “taking the right approach”. Another result suggests paring back the disability support pension to be a relatively popular cost-cutting measure, with 46% supporting recent recommendations to that effect and 37% opposed.
[38
sceptic
Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 3:58 pm | PERMALINK
Will Navy / Customs be liable for illegal acts in international waters?]
Yes
Abbott “Australia is the best friend Japan ever had”.
Abbott is the biggest wanker planet earth ever had!
Fairfax today looks at the 7 wealthiest Australians…6 men and I woman…who have more wealth than 1.73 million Australian households
Interesting too… that four the six men Triguboff,Lowy,Glassenberg.and Pratt all have something ese in common
What is it ?
Astro
[Yes, absolutely – and this is why no one will bother testing it.]
Well, obviously I will!
I’m not sure what you think is happening here. I’m putting forward the observation – in response to several posters, who are using present Greens’ polling to say that Labor is going to lose votes to the Greens – that the pre election polling is usually much higher for the Greens than they actual achieve at the poll.
I backed up this observation with some evidence which shows exactly that.
No one has shown me any evidence to the contrary.
That the Greens tend to poll less well at elections than polling suggests they will is pretty much a given – we have had numerous elections and by elections where the Greens have confidently predicted they’ll win X seats based on the polling and have fallen far short.
To make those observations and then, on the base of them, suggest (which is all I have ever done, if you take my posts as a whole, rather than plucking out random phrases out of context) that they won’t poll as well at the next federal election as present polling suggests (and thus, are likely not to poll as well as they did at the last election, either) isn’t that huge a leap.
deblonay
They were refugees
Of course no world leader would know Abbott says that to every lamp post and shrub he meets.
Rex
[It seems navy prison ships are intended to replace detention centres… ?]
This whole thing is a disgrace! This Government should be hanging their heads in shame.
The Greens 9% on this poll.
They’re gone, R.I.P.
[Posted Tuesday, July 8, 2014 at 3:58 pm | PERMALINK
Will Navy / Customs be liable for illegal acts in international waters?]
The more interesting question is will the executive government be responsible for unlawful executive directions found to breach Australian and / or International law?
Having just watched Monday’s 4 Corners can I say we have another reason to be ashamed of what our country is doing?
“@FatherBob: Could the Sea Shepherd be our civil society “good shepherd” patrolling/ monitoring our north western waters for care/concern of strangers?”
dtt
a tad dishonest of you to use the Newspoll quarterly figures to make various predictions about the Greens vote and PUP’s influence (both despite the Bludgertrack figures showing a different story, as I pointed out to you a couple of times) and then resort to Bludgertrack when you can’t make Newspoll stack up.
I’ve stuck with Newspoll because that’s what you were using.
“@political_alert: Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will hold a press conference at 4.50pm on the High Court challenge regarding 153 asylum seekers #auspol”
[The Greens 9% on this poll.]
What does that mean?
You’re looking at ‘in the sevens’, maybe in the low eights tops, in a real election.
How can the RAN board a ship in Australia’s contiguous zone (international waters) and not be charged with Piracy, is the new Australia flag the Jolly Rodger?
As for Victoria, Newspoll tells the same story —
14-19% in the lead up to the 2010 election, 11.2% on the day.
Polling over the last year 12 – 16%, so again, would expect a lower vote than last election in November.
(‘expect’ is just that – a personal thing – I can’t magically make it happen by the power of numbers or something…)
@KathViner: Australia handing over asylum seekers to Sri Lanka is on front page of UK Guardian print edition http://t.co/iyhX4E4QcP via @suttonnick
The vites of the Disabled and their carers,etc_________
The key political factor re the Disabled is not what the public thinks of them…but what they think about the Abbott Govt’s attack on on them
My guess is that in such a large group there mnust have been many who voted Coalition at the last election…will their fears now make then change ?
I think they will…when party loyalties clash with personal welfare ,we can guess what wins
astrobleme – daretotread has been the recent ‘offender’ with such stuff as:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/07/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-5/?comment_page=16/#comment-2014780
But there have been quite a few people who have claimed that the Greens are just about to hit the big time and seriously challenge the majors over the years.
Zoomster
[Well, obviously I will!]
ok great, I look forward to the analysis.
[I’m not sure what you think is happening here. I’m putting forward the observation – in response to several posters, who are using present Greens’ polling to say that Labor is going to lose votes to the Greens – that the pre election polling is usually much higher for the Greens than they actual achieve at the poll.]
Well, yes I am confused about you point as it does seem to change a lot. Could you make a new post where you summarise your point?
[That the Greens tend to poll less well at elections than polling suggests they will is pretty much a given ]
I though this was what you were investigating?
[we have had numerous elections and by elections where the Greens have confidently predicted they’ll win X seats based on the polling and have fallen far short.]
This has nothing to do with your theory, though. Rather than other people make bad guesses.
[To make those observations and then, on the base of them, suggest (which is all I have ever done, if you take my posts as a whole, rather than plucking out random phrases out of context) that they won’t poll as well at the next federal election as present polling suggests (and thus, are likely not to poll as well as they did at the last election, either) isn’t that huge a leap.]
Actually it is a huge leap. The future is not determined by the past. Newton was wrong, we cannot take past results to determine the future. This is a giant leap in your theory. If you can show that polling 6 months from an election can determine the result at an election almost 3 years away you are some sort of genius. To be honest, this is absolute rubbish and all you are doing is guessing.
Jackol
Well I would suggest that Daretotread is also guessing.
[But there have been quite a few people who have claimed that the Greens are just about to hit the big time and seriously challenge the majors over the years.]
They were also guessing.
It’s fine for people to guess, generally they clarify their remarks with things like
[My feeling is that…]
Don’t you just love the way PM Julia Gillard has forced Abbott to wear none but blue ties? 😆
Rex Douglas
Interesting aspect of the wivenhoe dam case is that the water had barely gone down after the floods and Hedley Thomas was on the case with a series of stories about how the incident had been mismanaged.
There were sceptics and denials but he was proved right, underling his credentials as an investigative journalist which had already won him acclaim in the Haneef Mohammed affair.
And then he sullied his reputation with his reporting on Gillard and the AWU.
Astrobleme
Greens polling figures tend to be overstated compare to actual election results.
I hope that’s simple enough for you.
As for ‘the future not being determined by the past’ wtf are you doing on a pseph site with that attitude?
No, the future isn’t determined by the past — but every theory we have is based on the idea that what we observe now can be used to predict what will happen in the future.
If a theory isn’t unable to do that, it isn’t a theory.
I would expect that the Greens will take a serious hit when the carbon tax is finally abolished.
Many people who stuck with the Greens are going to realise that a vote for an ineffectual party is a vote wasted.
Why is Abbott resigning the Trade Agreement he already signed in Japan? It still has to go to the Treaties Committee in Parliament and legislation has to pass both houses.
Maybe he needs a distraction?
…Antony Green, for example, bases his calculations on who will win which seats on election night on ‘the past’, and is generally accurate.
[“Australia is the best friend Japan ever had”.]
Not in 1945, you fucking wanker.
[Actually it is a huge leap. The future is not determined by the past. ]
In human behaviour it isn’t a big leap at all, expecting people to behave differently when all other things are equal is much more problematic. Obviously in predicting outcomes we can’t control all other things so assuming voters over reporting support in a particular poll will continue to do so seems very reasonable.
Zoomster et. al
The clearest counter-example to your hypothesis as I read it (that the Greens vote in polls tends to decline during the term) is the 2007-2010 federal term. The average Greens vote in 2008 was 10.1%, falling slightly to 9.9% in 2009, before rising to 12.1% in 2010 (only including polls before the election) and finally 11.8% at the actual election, showing a clear rise from early-term polling.
Lynchpin, don’t be too hard on Abbott.
Like a trained monkey, he’s used to “best friend ever had”.
Zoomster
[Greens polling figures tend to be overstated compare to actual election results.
I hope that’s simple enough for you.]
Yes, that’s a lot simpler!
So how will you prove that?
[No, the future isn’t determined by the past — but every theory we have is based on the idea that what we observe now can be used to predict what will happen in the future.]
It’s not simply the observation of the now that lets us make predictions about what might happen. It’s by actually understanding all the various factors that influence the system, combined with the initial values. This is nothing like what you are currently proposing.
Zoomster
[…Antony Green, for example, bases his calculations on who will win which seats on election night on ‘the past’, and is generally accurate.]
Yes, not 2.5 years away! So he takes data (observations) and combines them with a statistical model. You haven’t done any of this.
Lynchpin
I keep being reminded of the Tom Lehrer song about Germany – “We taught them a lesson in 1918/ And they’ve hardly bothered us since then..’
Lynchpin
I don’t suppose Abbott ever read Sister Bullwinkle’s autobiography.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivian_Bullwinkel
Of course our soldiers committed atrocities too in various wars, but the Japanese tropos act of machine-gunning the nurses has to be particularly heinous.
I am disgusted that people want to tighten disability pension eligibility
1. it’s a pittance
2. you have to be permanently disabled, so people with temporary uncorrectable double vision linger on Newstart for however long it takes for their vision to correct, try 2 years or so
3. Just because the DSP recipient isn’t sobbing in pain doesn’t mean they aren’t disabled and even more nastily the truly disabled moulder behind closed doors because they aren’t mobile enough to get out in the streets to protest
4.we all [should] know that there are 7 qualified candidates for every job vacancy in Australia – so shame on you for demonising the unemployed
5. if it only took half a morning of searching to find 3 jobs then you could call the unemployed lazy, but nowadays in Melbourne desirable people with energy and intelligent job searching take a minimum of 6 weeks to land a job
Wicked, wicked selfish community
Old Age Pension has over 2 million, DSP is under <1 million, go figure.
Zoomster
[Greens polling figures tend to be overstated compare to actual election results.]
Just thinking about this, you also need to frame it in time. So is it in relation to the polling just before? Or a couple of months before? Also you may need to look at each polling method.
Astro
Antony bases his predictions on election night on what happened at the previous election (three years before).
No, I haven’t put together a statistical model. I’ve made a series of observations, backed up by evidence, which you seem to think will have some magical baleful influence which must be countered lest the whole Green edifice crumble, leaving a barren and desolate wasteland behind it…
If everything I’ve said is a load of hockum based on guesswork, why are you getting in such a lather about it?
dtt
as I said, I used Newspoll because you did. Are you now saying we should use Bludgertrack?
OK, according to Bludgertrack, the Greens vote has risen 2% since the election and PUP has risen by 1%.
Nothing for Labor to worry about, which sort of negates about ten posts you made on the previous thread about how both these parties were a threat Labor could not ignore.
Honestly! They coldn’t lay straight in bed!
[Jason Koutsoukis
@jkoutsoukis
Local naval officials said Monday no women and children on the boat. This patently false. Appears at least 10 women and children on board.]
Astro
No, I don’t. As a simple statement, it holds true.
I have already shown the data I’ve based it on, including a spread of figures over time, and made a general rule about it – that Greens tend to poll better (at least on Newspoll) a couple of years out from an election, and then decline.
zoomster
[ “We taught them a lesson in 1918/ And they’ve hardly bothered us since then..’]
They barely got there by 1918. This is today’s entry in The Independence’s 100 Moments series on WWI.
[This was 12 September 1918, and about to unfold was the first independent offensive of the First World War by the American Expeditionary Force (AEF)……..General Pershing had resisted making his “doughboys” available to fill holes in British and French ranks]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/world-history/history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments/a-history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments-america-unleashes-the-doughboys-of-war-in-the-battle-of-saintmihiel-9590401.html
[
Last 3 Newspoll results prior to an election, then the election result.
ALP
2007 – 48,46,44 -43.3
2010 – 38, 36, 36 – 38.0
2013 – 37,33,33 -33.3
COAL
2007 – 40,41,43 – 42.1
2010 – 44,42,42 – 43.4
2013 – 47,46,46 – 45.6
Greens
2007 – 6,7,7 – 7.8
2010 – 13,14,13.9 – 11.8
2013 – 9,10,9 – 8.7
Zoomster
[Antony bases his predictions on election night on what happened at the previous election (three years before).]
I think you may have missed the important part here… The statistical model isn’t 3 years old. It would have demographic info and booth change info in it that is up to date. So it is the model that is the important part.
[I’ve made a series of observations, backed up by evidence…]
This doesn’t really make sense, as the Observations should be your ‘evidence’.
[ which you seem to think will have some magical baleful influence which must be countered lest the whole Green edifice crumble, leaving a barren and desolate wasteland behind it…]
No idea what any of this means.
[If everything I’ve said is a load of hockum based on guesswork, why are you getting in such a lather about it?]
I’m not in a lather, I was just asking you questions – you seemed to be saying that what you were doing was more than guesswork.
But hey I made a guess earlier when I said I thought they’d get between 10 and 11%.
Fredex
So what you’re probably showing there is that the margin of error for the ALP and the Coalition is smaller…
Zoomster
[No, I don’t. As a simple statement, it holds true.
I have already shown the data I’ve based it on, including a spread of figures over time, and made a general rule about it – that Greens tend to poll better (at least on Newspoll) a couple of years out from an election, and then decline.]
Ok, if that’s it great.
Reminds me a bit of Ann Elk…
“One of the revelations from this hearing is that the government is arguing that because these asylum seekers were picked up more than 12 miles outside the Australian migration zone, they aren’t covered by the Migration Act.” ( but by the Maritime Powers Act )
Interesting idea that the movement of 1 1/1000 of a millimetre from outside to inside 12 mile limit determines Australia’s obligations & which law operates.
Hopefully the HC determines that Australian law applies to Australian Government actions regardless as to where it occurs, this is becoming the findings of US Supreme Court.
Otherwise its a free hand to the Abbott fascist regime.
God you have tow worry when the Greens are arguing about a few % in the next election.
Haven’t they got other issues of importance. 😆
zoomster
All that shows is what Nate Silver has said. Polls get more accurate closer to an election.
All these polls Fredex posted re the Libs over the past 7 years have a ‘4’ in front, lately a ‘3’ has become the norm. The trend is not Tony’s new best friend, that’s for sure.