Seat of the week: Dickson

Peter Dutton’s parliamentary career began when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and he was doubtful enough of his capacity to keep his seat out of Labor hands that he sought refuge elsewhere before the 2010 election.

Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.

The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.

Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.

After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

868 thoughts on “Seat of the week: Dickson”

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  3. CTaR1

    Eden trying to eliminate history before it gets much of a chance to happen…

    If only he had had 43 spin doctors Sevres would have been about porcelain and the Suez wink and a nod would never have happened.

  5. The good thing about ML is that eventually she gets sick of talking about herself and leaves.

    She should stick to psephing at which she is better than most of us, IMHO.

  6. no, the government is far worse than I expected.

    Definitely and in so many ways in incompetence (Abbott Hockey in particular) acting against the national interest (Morrison Turnbull in particular) in dishonesty (Abbott, Hockey, Turnbull, Morrison … the whole lot of them) in nasty partisan politics (almost all appointments, we knew that unlike Labor they wouldn’t appoint the best person for the job regardless of political persuasion but who would have expected they’d appoint so many useless partisan hacks, it really is embarrassing).

  7. CTar1

    some plonker ditched all the file registration records and indexes pre 1950

    Perhaps during WWII they were taken for “safe keeping” in Cripplegate 🙂

  13. Our local council buildings were burnt down (twice, because the first fire didn’t do the intended job) — reportedly so that all records of a dodgy land deal were lost.

    Lots of lols when an ex councillor later revealed he’d kept back up copies of everything in his garden shed…

  14. Bw

    Eden trying to eliminate history before it gets much of a chance to happen…

    The Suez Crisis still rates as a fascinating episode in British history and is much written about.

    Over the last 15 years or so I’ve reviewed pre-publication about 15 scripts for documentaries or fiction set around the event including the scripts for UK TV series ‘The Hour’.

    One of the strange things is that almost none of them mention that Patrick Dean was an SIS guy. Most place him as ‘Deputy Under Secretary of the Foreign Office’ or as ‘a senior diplomat’.

  15. They latest in the long running series of why a “Yes” vote for Scottish independence will bring down the sky.

    Scottish independence: Academics say ‘Yes’ vote could harm scientific research

    The claim was made by the presidents of the Royal Society, the British Academy and the Academy of Medical Sciences.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-28174633

  16. Botswana Bob @ 542

    I could not have put it better myself. How Peter Dutton has got so far is one of the great mysteries of contemporary politics.

  17. Jacqui Lambie a thorn in the side for Tony Abbott!

    “He has no compassion. I find that disgusting. I read his book (Battlelines) once. For someone who decided whether he wanted to be Pope or PM I thank God everyday he never became Pope. I don’t think God would have allowed that to happen.’’

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/jacqui-lambie-how-i-found-clive-palmer-lost-40kg-and-now-could-derail-the-federal-budget/story-fni0cx12-1226978876840

    From 2010..

    ”I asked him why he began training as a diocesan priest rather than as a Jesuit. He said that popes were ultimately drawn from the ranks of diocesan priests. He had ambition!” Costello writes.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-20100716-10e6r.html#ixzz36eVp2bZm

  18. On the other hand, the sheer paucity of LNP talent from Qld makes it easier for the sludge to get to the top.

  19. CTaR1

    The Suez Crisis still rates as a fascinating episode in British history and is much written about.

    It was when the last of the empire chaps finally twigged that it was all over Red Rover.

  20. How Peter Dutton has got so far is one of the great mysteries of contemporary politics.

    Coming off a very low base in Qld?

  22. zoom

    Our local council buildings were burnt down

    A building fire is a famous excuse in archival terms.

    At Attorney-Generals’ Department it was solidly believed that all records pre-1929 were lost in a fire in Melbourne.

    A cursory examination of records numbered 29/nnnn revealed that the old records had simply been ‘Top Numbered’ into the new record numbering system. These included many documents written by one Robert Randolf Garran ( http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/garran-sir-robert-randolph-410 ). RRG is obscure to 99% of the population but was very important in the process of Australian Federation (He actually wrote the Constitution) and was the very first Australian Public Servant.

    When we corrected the Australian Archives Control Records they notified people who had put in previous requests and then got rained on by new requests. Some of this was used in books like ‘High Hopes’ by Leone Foster.

    The ‘Garden Shed’ concept appeals!

    So maybe the British copy of the ‘Sèvres Protocol’ will turn up. It’s believed the French copy still exists and certain that the Israeli copy exists. The question over the British copy is about what was negotiated between the Brits and French after the Israeli contingent left Sèvres.

    The French aint saying, even now.

  24. poroti

    Did you see the “launch” of the 3.1 billion pound aircraftless carrier in Scotland for the RN.

    Rather crassly Sir George claimed that it was being given the name of not just the current monarch but “both our Queen Elizabeths”, even though Scotland has only ever had one Queen Elizabeth and the ship itself tactfully avoids adding a “II” on the end.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/todays-news-in-numbers/

  25. Boerwar

    The French empire chappies were a bit slower on the uptake. Didn’t take the hint at Dien Bien Phu , still didn’t get it at Suez . Probably not until after Algeria did it start to penetrate.

  27. swamprat

    Well spotted re the lack of “II” had not noticed that. 3.1 billion would have been a bargain. Last year estimated cost had hit 6.2 billion pounds. Dare say it will rise further.

  28. The 2013 annual report for Cadbury parent company Mondelez Australia Holdings shows the firm’s profit before tax rose 46 per cent from $87 million to $127 million in 2013.

    how much tax did they pay? or was it all funneled through some offshore tax haven to avoid paying tax in Australia?

  30. Bw

    It was when the last of the empire chaps finally twigged that it was all over Red Rover.

    Yep, for the majority of the ‘Great Britain’ population (They ‘rebadged’ as the ‘United Kingdom’ after the fiasco). But even the thickest, bar a small number, got ‘it’ when ‘Aden’ happened a decade or so later. The last cohort only when Hong Kong was ‘handed over’.

    Some probably revived a bit by the Falklands but not about ‘Empire’, that was gone with Indian Independence, but simply some belief that ‘power projection’ was still a little possible courtesy of the RN.

  31. Poroti @ 575

    By the time the French departed Algeria in 1962 – there was effectively no empire left – what today is referred to as France Outre-mer – New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Martinique, Guadaloupe, Reunion, etc.

    Algeria was of course a very different narrative from the withdrawal of France from Morocco and Tunisia – Algeria being part of France (internal) with the non Muslim Algerians (the Pied Noir) being full citizens of the republic – unlike what occurred elsewhere.

  32. poroti

    Probably not until after Algeria did it start to penetrate.

    That was ‘messy’ to say the least.

    The the French still hold tremendous sway in their former colonies.

    One of the only good things done by Nicholas Sarkosy was re-engagement with these countries. The French willingness to intervene has, I think, stopped the possibility in some places of blood-letting on a Rwandan scale.

  33. poroti/swamprat

    Last year estimated cost had hit 6.2 billion pounds.

    All they have to get done now is version 2 and find some A/C to fly off them (This bit looking hard).

    Some of the arguments against Scottish independence are ‘fantastical’ and amusing to say the least.

    However, I doubt that the required number of Scott’s will vote for it.

  34. BBP

    Tunisia is a disappointment. Very cosmopolitan and the most likely to come out of the ‘Arab Spring’ well.

    But it doesn’t seem to be happening.

  36. CTar1

    With some of the crap about to go down at the time it was lucky the French were prepared to step in as they did.

  38. sortius ‏@sortius 3m

    Wow, crazy LNP supporter saying rallies are good because it makes it easier to machine gun people down. True fascists #auspol #BustTheBudget

  39. On Empire and military bases.

    The removal of Chagossians from Diego Garcia to allow the US base….

    Because the indigenous Black inhabitants were seen as a security threat to the base, the islands were “swept and sanitised”, leading to 2,000 Chagossians being deported to Mauritius and the Seychelles. A senior civil servant at the Foreign Office wrote, “We must surely be very tough about this. The object of the exercise was to get some rocks that will remain ours. There will be no indigenous population except seagulls.” His colleague commented that, “Along with the Birds go some Tarzans or Men Fridays …”.

    Britain then lied to the UN by portraying the ethnic cleansing as the mere “returning home” of some contracted workers. The American base would also appear to support UK strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, to the extent that Whitehall has concocted spurious environmental reasons to extend the island’s lease by 20 years in 2016.

    http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2013/08/07/the-geo-politics-of-military-bases-empire-and-independence/

  40. poroti

    it was lucky the French were prepared to step in as they did.

    OH, who knows much more than I do about this sort of stuff, says that the French tax payers now seem to be relieved on the aspect of the usefulness of Rafael’s, the Force d’action navale and the Army by activities over the last 5 years.

    Same as the Falklands thing for the Poms.

  41. swamprat

    Yep. The IOT situation is going to ‘cost’ the UK big bucks sometime in the near future. You just can’t displace these people with no compensation and not expect it to rebound on you.

  42. CTar1

    Good thing the French had been practising .Lots of YouTube stuff of French pilots flying crazy low in places like Chad , Djibouti and Morocco.

  44. Woe is me!!!

    I accidentally deleted my entire history and bookmarks.

    Now the Pollbludger page looks weird!

    I think it is as one would see on a mobile phone.

    Help!!!!

  46. CW,

    You may find a link near the bottom of the page with the text “switch to our standard site”. Clicking on that link should thrrow you back to the usual view.

  47. Duttonard = a souffle that does not rise the first time.

    Duttonite: an inert but still dangerous high-density mineral, of no known value, and showing no lustre whatsoever.

  48. 556
    WeWantPaul

    …{the Abbott government} really is embarrassing).

    I think we are way past embarrassing, and well into terrifying.

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