Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

After a slight improving trend for the Abbott government in recent weeks, the latest fortnightly Newspoll result has it back to its worst.

The fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian reverses the recent moderating trend in federal polling by showing Labor’s two-party preferred lead out to 55-45 from 53-47 last time. The only other numbers so far (courtesy of GhostWhoVotes) are personal ratings for Tony Abbott, which are little changed at 31% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up one). Stay tuned for primary votes and other leadership ratings. UPDATE: Newspoll also records a solid shift to Bill Shorten on preferred prime minister, his 40-37 lead from last time now out to 44-34, while his disapproval is down four points to 41% with approval steady at 34%. Full results courtesy of The Australian here.

Also out today was the regular fortnightly multi-mode (i.e. face-to-face plus SMS) poll from Roy Morgan, conducted over the last two weekends from a sample of 2797, which has both major parties down 1.5% on the primary vote – the Coalition to 35%, Labor to 36.5% – making way for Palmer United, recovering from a recent slump to 7% (up 1.5% on last fortnight), while the Greens stay steady on 12%. A big gap has opened on the two measures of two-party preferred, with Labor’s 54.5-45.5 lead on 2013 election preference flows blowing out to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated. Interestingly, this has been echoed in recent respondent-allocated results from Nielsen, which is the only other pollster which publishes them. In its four monthly results since March, Labor’s lead has been between 1.5% and 2.5% higher on respondent-allocated than on the measure using 2013 election flows.

Stay tuned as usual for tomorrow’s Essential Research.

UPDATE: We indeed have Essential Research, and ReachTEL besides:

• Conducted for the Seven Network, the ReachTEL poll encompasses 3376 respondents and has Labor’s lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 at the last such poll on May 8. The primary votes are 39.6% for the Coalition (up 0.7%), 38.7% for Labor (down 0.9%), 10.3% for the Greens (down 0.9%) and 6.8% for Palmer United (up 0.8%).

• After a solid shift to the Coalition in last week’s fortnightly rolling average result, Essential Research is all but unchanged this week, with Labor leading 52-48 from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (steady), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 6% for Palmer United (up one). Among the remaining questions, of particular interest is one on approval of various government ministers, with Malcolm Turnbull easily leading a field of seven with a net score of plus 13%; Julie Bishop, George Brandis and Scott Morrison breaking roughly even; and Greg Hunt, Joe Hockey and especially Christopher Pyne trailing the field, on minus 11%, minus 12% and minus 18% respectively.

On climate change, 33% want the carbon tax dumped and replaced with nothing, while 16% want it kept, 22% want a shift to an emissions trading scheme, and only 9% favour the government’s “direct action” policy. A semi-regular question on trust in public institutions finds, for what reason I’m not sure, that the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank are back where they were in June 2012 after big moves in their favour in March 2013, with each rating in the fifties for “a lot of trust” or “some trust”. The medical profession and law enforcement agencies score high on trust in use of personal information, with social media sites rating lowest.

The poll also inquires into Peter Greste and Julian Assange, with 39% thinking the government has not provided appropriate support for Greste, the view presumably being that it should have done more, while 20% say its support has been appropriate. A rather particular question on Assange has 69% opting for “it is a waste of money trying to arrest Julian Assange” against 13% for “Julian Assange should be arrested despite the costs”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,274 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  5. [guytaur
    Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 4:28 pm | PERMALINK
    @CroweDM: Asylum seekers are to be transferred to Sri Lankan naval vessel in mid-ocean, in rough seas whipped up the monsoon. http://t.co/bgtfGNKecH ]

    This story is written in the Oz by Amanda Hodge, South Asia Correspondent, New Delhi and seems to come from a Sri Lankan navy official in Sri Lanka. Thus what Morrison tries to make secret is exposed by the Sri Lankan authorities. See if Morrison tries to deny this.

    [Sri Lanka warns of dangers in mid-ocean asylum-seeker transfer

    A BOATLOAD of Sri Lankan asylum-seekers found near Cocos Island has been picked up by Australian authorities and will be handed over to the Sri Lankan navy, an official navy spokesman has confirmed.

    A second senior Sri Lankan navy official told The Australian the asylum-seekers, picked up on a separate boat from that believed to have left southern India in mid-June, would be transferred to a Sri Lankan naval vessel in mid-ocean, in rough seas whipped up the monsoon.]

    So the 153 people on the larger boat seem to still be in limbo.

  11. interesting language coming from a lawyer

    “@JulianBurnside: RT We should all demand that the Christian Tony Abbott explain why he tolerates the criminal Morrison in his cabinet”
    Note if I had put this I would at the very least have put alleged in there. We only have reports nothing that has actually gone to court and been proven.

  12. [@CroweDM: Asylum seekers are to be transferred to Sri Lankan naval vessel in mid-ocean, in rough seas whipped up the monsoon. http://t.co/bgtfGNKecH%5D

    If true this is very likely to be unlawful action by the Australian government, and I mean under Australian law.

  14. [A lot of accommodation at minesites is in old shipping containers. They convert them to dongas. They’re pretty good and spacious.]

    I thought the days of converting shipping containers were gone.

    One of my brothers was recently approached by a religious organization to fly to India and train a workforce to build dongas.

  16. Actually a google search lists many firms that convert near new shipping containers into accommodation. I read somewhere that they make one trip carrying imported cargo and are then converted.

    Given the location of the overseas backpackers in the Sydney fire, it is quite likely they were living in unmodified containers being stored and still used for transporting goods. That is a completely different issue.

  19. I assume the Defence Minister will come out of hiding eventually and tell us how an SAS soldier gets shot in an admin building?

  20. [A lot of accommodation at mine sites is in old shipping containers. They convert them to dongas. They’re pretty good and spacious.]
    There was great footage from the legendary Whim Creek pub in W.A. during a direct hit from a major cyclone awhile back. They had set up shipping containers as cyclone shelters. Repleat with full bar service where the patrons retired to as the cyclone hit.

  22. [The Times is now categorised as a “mid-market London tabloid”.]

    Lordy ! before the “Dirty Digger” got ahold of it The Times of London was the establishment’s paper of record.

  25. Dee

    In Victoria, the state government is housing prisoners in shipping containers due to lack of prison space (because, of course, they’ve ‘got tough on crime’).

  26. The dismissed (?) Commissioner for the Disabled is not happy with the appointment of a Commissioner for Threatened Species instead.

    And I’m not happy with the person Hunt has appointed.

    Then there’s Albrechtson and ABC/SBS appointments.

    can’t this dysfunctional government get anything right?

    Can’t this

  28. Citizen

    I stand corrected!

    The dongas my brother & his mate build look great and are built to a high standard.

    The last couple they built were for large farm holdings up north.

    This is mainly a hobby for my brother who is technically retired. 🙂

  29. [The implication from the reports I saw was it was suicide.]

    I wasn’t going there… yet.

    But the Defence Minister will have to eventually. Or will it be an in admin event and thus no information will be supplied.

  30. Why would a Sri Lankan Navy vessel travel all the way to Australian waters to collect a bunch of asylum seekers?

    I don’t believe it!

    What’s in it for the Sri Lankans?

    The day Xmas Island, Manus Island and Nauru are free of Australian asylum seekers, I will believe that the boats have stopped.

    In the meantime…Morrison get stuffed!

  33. “@seanparnell: Asked about legality of possible transfer of asylum-seekers to Sri Lankan navy, A-G George Brandis said “We’re not here to talk about that.””

  34. Is the latest Hunt Stunt guy this guy?

    [He was, in fact, Gregory Andrews, an Assistant Secretary in the Office of Indigenous Policy Coordination who was advising Mal Brough]

    The Lateline fake, gets a fake job for a fake Govt Dept.

  36. “@seanparnell: This is the same A-G George Brandis who is chief law officer and also has responsibility for #FOI laws (he offloaded #OGP few months ago

    Is this guy News Ltd or Fairfax?

  38. SHY has gone there. It turns out to be a reasonable question too.

    “@sarahinthesen8: Aust Govt is handing Sri Lankan refugees over to the Sri Lankan Navy. Would Morrison & Abbott have turned Jews back to the Nazis as well?”

  39. Just Me

    Re noise. Problem solved if they use former freezer containers. Lots of insulation that would make for excellent noise insulation as well.

  40. [Force X.

    Ah yes, the inevitable invocation of hidden variables. The friend of spivs and idiots throughout the ages.]

    Seems like we should do some science to understand what affects the climate! Especially given how big an effect it can have on us and our economy.

  46. I am coming to believe the reports are close to the truth about the AS boats.

    Otherwise why not get on the front foot and say the reports are specious and say as before they are going to Manus, Nauru or being returned.

  48. WOW what about Nick Kyrgios?

    He’s a mobile, flexible, powerful giant.

    And he doesn’t think he can get beat, he’s only 19.

    Superstars of tennis win big tournaments at 19, like Becker, Federer and Nadal in the past.

    I hope his minders can pass on some serious advice:-

    Keep away from the women, they’re like the Greens in politics, they’re bad news 😐

  49. [ruawake
    Posted Wednesday, July 2, 2014 at 6:11 pm | PERMALINK
    Woolworths is accused of raising prices to plug earnings hole.

    Isn’t this what business does?]

    Apparently WoWs are raising their margins on some products to generate more revenue to counter not so good returns from Masters and BigW. The extra revenue would also improve their capacity to tackle Aldi.

  50. It seems we have struck a new low in Australia.

    Malaysian rendition was hailed as a great advance.

    Now we have Sri Lankan rendition, which, quell surprise, hasn’t received the same applause here.

    What has Australia come to?

    Time for a moderate Liberal Prime Minister methinks

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