BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate points to a continuing deflation of the post-budget Labor poll blowout, and reallocates a chunk of the Labor swing from New South Wales to Victoria.

Two new poll results this week from Nielsen and Essential Research have contributed to a continuation of the moderating trend of Labor’s post-budget poll lead, which sees the two-party preferred result in BludgerTrack come in at 52.6-47.4, down from 53.5-46.5 last week. The peak reading of 55.0-45.0 was recorded four weeks ago, a fortnight after the May 13 budget. The Coalition also has the lead on the primary vote for the first time in six weeks. Labor retains a reasonably comfortable majority on the seat projection, although the numbers once again illustrate how difficult the model considers the electoral terrain to be for Labor, as the present projection of 79 seats is four fewer than Labor managed with an almost identical two-party preferred vote when Kevin Rudd led it to victory in 2007.

There were some striking results in the state breakdowns in Nielsen this week, and BludgerTrack reflects this in having the swing in New South Wales moderate considerably, cutting their projected seat gain from 11 to seven, while in Victoria the gain is up from four to seven. Further shifts beneath the surface find Labor up a seat in Queensland, but down one in both Western Australia and South Australia. The Nielsen poll also furnishes us with a new set of leadership ratings, which after accounting for the model’s standardisation procedure are almost identical to last week’s results from Newspoll. The movements on last week are accordingly very minor.

Last week I offered a closer look at Palmer United’s polling trend, so this week I thought we’d home in on the Greens. After watching their vote fall from 11.8% at the 2010 election to 8.6% in 2013, polling has shown the party on a steady upward trend, with a short-lived spike occurring in April. While this was partly driven by one outlier result from Nielsen, all of the other polling conducted at that time has them clustered around the high level of 12%. All of these results were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Western Australian Senate election, at which the party’s vote was up from 9.5% to 15.6%. The party’s polling in Western Australia has remained strong, the present BludgerTrack reading of its primary vote being 15.8%. Coincidentally or otherwise, the downward trend that followed the WA election spike coincided exactly with the federal budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,028 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. [I don’t think the hatred and repulsion of child sexual abuse has been at all “broad but at the same time vague.”
    ]

    No no no there isn’t that much rage expressed at the offenders here at all. Most of the rage is directed at the broad organizations rather than the offender. There is a general failure to differentiate between aiding (which is a crime) knowing a crime has been committed and covering it up (also almost certainly a crime) and a failure to take proper steps to protect children in an institutions care, and a failure to protect children not directly in a institutions care.

    I fully support rage against the offender and have promised one victim to have a picnic / party on the offenders grave as soon as he does the world a favour and dies. I worked hard to get an employee who just wouldn’t believe the victim sacked for gross stupidity. I also think the organization would have been correct to offer some form of compensation. But I don’t see how bankrupting the organization helps victims, nor do I feel any need to hate the whole organization. But that is just me.

  5. [Liberal Federal Council elects Richard Alston as new president]
    Ah yes, the guy who on RN said he was “proud” of his part in the forceful adoption of the babies of “unmarried mothers” . By his estimate about 24.

  6. Hey, guys, you’re gunna love this:

    WHAT’S A STAY-AT-HOME MUM (OR DAD) WORTH?
    On average stay-at-home-mums (or dads) juggle 94 hours of work each week

    Woohoo!

    That’s unpaid work.

    How is it figured?

    Say a full-time mum, or a dad, is injured.

    This is about insurance to replace the mum, or dad (fuck, I’m starting to feel like a “Life of Brian” out-take) should she, or he, be unable to carry out life’s little under-valued works – until the insurance industry gets wind of it.

    Anyway, enjoy the calculator.

    http://insights.bt.com.au/whats-a-stay-at-home-mum-worth-in-2013/

  7. WWP:

    Right, so as I suspected, your complaint has f*ck all to do with the Salvos and everything to do with a fellow traveller who also chooses to turn a blind eye to the abuses by religious clergy by beating up on those who don’t by calling them intolerant or some such. LOL-frackin-LOL. You wanna lay your arse down with those fleas then that shit is on you, and IMO you’d be doing yourself a favour not to go mouthing off at those who can draw and actually have drawn an ethical and legal line in the sand.

    As to the “overwhelming sentiment here”, have you not read what people have written? I’ve chipped you before about not being able to distinguish between what you see as religious intolerance and what normal folk see as expressing horror at the abuses perpetrated by clergy who in many cases were entrusted to the pastoral care of children by their parents.

    You need to work through the massive chip you have on your shoulder. When/if you do, you’ll come to see that you are standing on the wrong side of history and the wrong side of what is legally just. There are no excuses for the abuse of children. None, and it’s high time you stopped making them.

  8. [No no no there isn’t that much rage expressed at the offenders here at all. Most of the rage is directed at the broad organizations rather than the offender.]

    OMG are you for freakin real?!

    And have you been living in a bubble somewhere in the Pacific Ocean not to have noticed that a significant number of the testimony to the RC into institutionalised child abuse revealed it was able to take place SIMPLY BECAUSE it took place wholly within the confines of the protection of those “broad organisations”?

    OMG!

  9. WWP

    [Most of the rage is directed at the broad organizations rather than the offender.]

    I see Confessions has beat me to it!

    It has been proven over and over again that the culture of organizations was to covered up, conceal and the offenders.

    Abusers were able to spend a lifetime of offending due to the protection of these organizations/institutions.

  10. [Psephos
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 8:17 pm | PERMALINK
    Do you have authority to change the source of your webpage?

    I am the source of my website.]

    Ah, you’re a darling. I meant the source of the html, that makes your input work.

    As in, right click on any webpage, this one will do, and then click “View page source”. Another tab will open with the view of the html.

    On your website, for instance, if I right click, and then click ‘view page source’, I can see instantly that you have #000066 as your background colour.

    I am asking if you have the authority to change this code?

    Or have you outsourced the making of the webpage?

    If not, if you have the authority to change it, then why not do so?

    I’m a client of yours, after all, and I am telling you that it is very difficult to read your work with a midnight blue background.

    That’s all.

    Once I’ve transacted the first few links, the olive green’s fine.

    But I’m reluctant to give your links to other when I know I am finding it difficult to read your page because of the colours. That’s all.

  12. [Richard Alston?

    You mean the god botherer back then who wanted the Internet Censored?]
    Ya mean this guy ? Libs have a long history of stopping high speed internet access.

    [World’s biggest luddite strikes again!

    Australia’s Senator Alston dismisses ADSL

    Not content with outlawing email, gambling and any material ever that is not suitable for children, he has now attacked a plan to roll out broadband Internet access across Oz.
    A proposal in the Labour party’s policy statement (stolen from the Internet’s Industry Association) that all homes should have cable by 2006 has been rubbished by Senator Alston, who called it “a costly waste of time” and “horrendously expensive”.]

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/10/19/worlds_biggest_luddite_strikes_again/

    [This man must be the biggest luddite in history

    And unfortunately, he’s a cabinet minister for IT]
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2003/09/29/worlds_biggest_luddite_to_retire/

  13. Dee @ 961

    An errant -ed and a misplaced ‘and’

    We all got what you meant.

    And may I say I completely agree with you.

  14. * I have complete control of the website. Only I edit it.
    * There’s no olive green at the Psephos website. There is some at my personal website, which I haven’t touched for years and have been meaning to take offline, since facebook has taken the place of personal websites.
    * The only colours which appear against the deep blue are yellow and red. I’ve always found this very readable and no-one else has complained that it isn’t.

  15. 928, 933 & 947

    What with modern anti-shipping missile technology, the submarines are probably the best bit of the fleet for any war against any significant nation. Far more useful than all those frigates and destroyers.

  20. [Oh sorry lefty e

    I see a Green press release claiming credit for an ALP policy. How unusual.]

    Well you need your eyes checked then. Maybe the GRNs will get Opticare over the line for you.

    [The deal was negotiated by Greens Senator Richard di Natale and honours a promise Julia Gillard made in her 2010 agreement which saw the Greens support her government in the hung parliament.]

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/money/government-announces-13b-boost-to-public-dental-schemes/story-fnagkbpv-1226460559009

  22. Excellent argument by Waleed Aly in relation to the jailing of Peter Greste.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/jailing-of-peter-greste-in-egypt-reveals-principles-are-the-first-casualty-in-the-war-on-terror-20140626-zsm1y.html

    Especially his exposure of the gross hypocrisy of Fox News who were accusing Al Jazeera of being harbingers of “terrorism” and commanding the Bush govt destroy it.

    Fox News has now done a complete back-flip and says Al Jazeera is synonymous with freedom fighters, or wtte, and demanding the journos be released from the clutches of the terrorists.

    Aly has every right to accuse Fox of being propagandists of the first order.

    Strangely enough, Australia’s The Festival of Dangerous Ideas has just had to cancel the

    [scheduled appearance from Uthman Badar, spokesperson for Hizb ut-Tahrir (a Muslim extremist organisation with about a million followers worldwide) whose talk was provocatively titled ‘Honour Killings Are Morally Justified.’]

    never mind that they had also pencilled in a

    [line-up include such anti-feminist and homophobic titles such as ‘Some Families Are Better Than Others’ and ‘The Rise Of Women Has Turned Men Into Boys’]

    but the immediate attention is on the injustices of the ME ‘failed’ systems.

    http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/festival-of-dangerous-ideas-cancelling-the-honour-killings-talk-is-not-enough-20140625-3aspv.html

  23. Labor has a dental plan similar to Denticare leading up to the 2007 election. The Greens consistently voted with the Liberals to block it.

  24. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 9:03 pm | PERMALINK
    Plus, we’re extending the operational life of our subs by having them dockside most of the time.]

    Just for a moment there I thought you were talking about the subbies sacked by Fairfax.

    And then I remembered your special subject. War M-A-T-E-R-I-E-L.

  25. This is a serious question

    Why do we pursue the reason for the death of a civilian when we don’t give a shit about the thousands and millions of deaths prior to the Vietnam War and every war since?

    What happened?

    Why does it matter?

    Why do we care?

    Dead’s dead.

    What’s this about bringing someone to justice? When there’s no justice anywhere.

    A white collar crime? Doesn’t matter that whoever committed that crime might have driven someone to suicide. They’re not prosecuted for manslaughter. Or homicide.

    Seriously, the only offenders who should be behind bars are those who can’t stop killing.

    The rest. Let em go free.

    Alright, I concede there’s a personal element happening here, and we want to know what happened to our loved one, but outside our family, who really cares?

    Nobody really cares.

    Yet, what’s this obsession with Cold Cases? Who’s responsible? But who cares?

    What I’d like to know is why we can slaughter millions and not blink an eye and then obsess over a dead body here and there, and have to know who did what, how and why to whom.

    When did this first become an imperative, this reason for sending the guilty to a lock-up?

    It certainly wasn’t Noah’s Ark. Did God go to jail for killing everyone? No. So it didn’t matter then.

    Did God go to jail for killing the first born of every Jew? No. So it didn’t matter then.

    So, when did it matter? When we developed ethics? That every life was sacred?

    It certainly wasn’t religion. Was the the upshot of atheism?

  27. Yee Hah! Got the place to myself.

    I’ve also been pondering the capabilities of leadership. You know, what is it that construes the attributes of a leader.

    It doesn’t just require the skill of being able to do a particular job well. It also requires the knitting together of the skills of everyone else.

    When I was about 22 years of age, my second oldest sister had been the captain of the West Gippsland netball for a few years. She was almost 3 years older than me.

    That year, my oldest sister, and my second oldest sister, were both pregnant, and I was given the captaincy of the WG team, by default.

    They were so used to we sisters being part of the team.

    The theory was that my older sisters were such good leaders that I must also have that capability.

    wRONg.

    It didn’t help that I was also pregnant, out of wedlock and hadn’t told anyone, and suffering severely from morning sickness, and here I was, a Wing Defence, with no prior experience.

    I hadn’t even been the vice-captain of our local team, let alone captain. I was of the view that if you played your part, you didn’t need coaching.

    I buggered up that year for West Gippsland. We got to the first semi-final and were defeated. It was embarrassing for the selectors, but not so much for me. Because I knew my limitations.

    I was an excellent team member, but not a leader.

    It must be an horrific job for a person who’s used to having input but no responsibility for the final outcome.

    I see Abbott like this.

    He’s in the wrong job.

    And like my team back in 1976, he’s only gunna get to the semis, and only going to get there on the strength of the team; not through leadership.

  30. If the Salvation Army are responsible for the covering up of child abuse and are behind the homicide on Manus Island then they deserve more than bankruptcy, they deserve gaol.

    End of story.

  33. Saville’s conduct was reprehensible.

    That he got away with it for his entire life is appalling and shamed the entire British entertainment establishment.

    How he can be defended is beyond me.

  36. Darren Laver@983

    Saville’s conduct was reprehensible.

    That he got away with it for his entire life is appalling and shamed the entire British entertainment establishment.

    How he can be defended is beyond me.

    Whats totally appalling is that their are those that are all to willing to cover up actions of the ilk of Saville.

  39. Zoidlord
    Not 6 months with no boats. 6 months with no successful people smugglers. NOT the same thing. They would like you to think it is 6 months with no boats, but that is not what they say.

  40. [Zoidlord
    Not 6 months with no boats. 6 months with no successful people smugglers. NOT the same thing. They would like you to think it is 6 months with no boats, but that is not what they say.]

    I am not sure it is appropriate to comment one way or the other while the Operation to stop these dangerous boats is still underway.

  43. Are the people who thought all that mattered was whether or not the boats kept coming, not how we behaved as Australians, saying they have changed their minds?

    Or are they singing the praises of Abbott for mimicking Howard and stopping the boats?

  48. [Yesiree Bob
    Posted Friday, June 27, 2014 at 10:17 pm | PERMALINK
    sorry if my #978 0ffends, but how anyone can defend Saville, in any way is totally beyond me]

    It’s hard to even contemplate a person who’d give cunnilingus or fellatio to the dead, let alone molest the living, young or old.

    To even try to understand a person who’d do such a thing is beyond imagination.

    Yet, there he was. The living and breathing and molesting Jimmy Saville. Feted and loved apparently. A celebrity who could do whatever he liked whenever he wanted.

    And not one person held him to account; not even when his victims complained.

    Just who do we hold responsible?

    The radios and TV producers? The make-up artists? The publishers? Who?

    Why did everyone turn a blind eye to his filth?

    He socialised in conservative circles. You know, the “A” list before it was capitalised?

    They saw his whimsy and folly, but turned a blind eye, because most of them were practising the same shit on people who couldn’t protest (without losing their income).

    Excepting the necrophilia, of course, but it’s sure as eggs some of his companions were perverted enough to want to indulge in an outrageous push of the boundaries.

    Who’d want to put their hand up now, except GG of course, to say they’d attended his funeral.

    Wouldn’t you feel an inner dread if you were one of those “Thousands of mourners (who)line(d)the streets as 700 people pack the cathedral” to farewell him in his gold coffin?

    Urrrgh.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2059396/Jimmy-Savile-funeral-Golden-Coffin-taken-farewell-tour-Leeds.html

  49. [Labor has a dental plan similar to Denticare leading up to the 2007 election. The Greens consistently voted with the Liberals to block it.]

    Completely untrue. The Greens never voted against a Denticare plan because such a plan was never presented to the Senate. The ALP government refused to introduce the plan before the abolition of the CDM Dental scheme; it is that scheme that the Senate refused to abolish. That is a completely different thing to voting against the ALP policy – in fact Greens Senators indicated they would support such a program.

  50. [Who says the boats have stopped?]

    Who says they have not?

    If a tree falls in a forrest and no-one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

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