Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor

One of the last polls we will get from Nielsen finds the pollster returning the pack, after reporting a particularly big post-budget blowout last month.

GhostWhoVotes relates that what I believe will be Fairfax’s second final monthly Nielsen poll has Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 39% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. While being well on trend, this marks a big improvement for the Coalition on last month, which was their worst poll result of the post-budget blowout: 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 40% for Labor, 35% for the Coalition and 14% for the Greens. Leadership ratings to follow shortly.

UPDATE: The Nielsen poll has Tony Abbott up a point on approval to 35% and down two on disapproval to 60%; Bill Shorten down five to 42% and up two to 41%; and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 51-40 to 47-40. Questions on preferred party leaders found Malcolm Turnbull favoured to lead the Liberal Party by 40% compared with 21% for Abbott and 11% for both Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, while Bill Shorten led the Labor pack with 25% to 19% for Anthony Albanese, 17% for Tanya Plibersek and 7% each for Tony Burke and Chris Bowen. A question from the previous poll concerning whether the budget was fair was revisited, again finding 33% agreeing that it was, with disagreement down two points to 61%. On the question of sending Australian soldiers to Iraq, 31% said they would be in favour with 66% opposed.

Other recent polling snippets:

• The Sunday News Limited papers report that a Galaxy Research poll of 1010 women aged between 18 and 44 found 60% thought the government’s proposed paid parental leave scheme was fair, with 29% thinking it not fair and 6% believing it was not enough.

• The Conversation reports a JWS Research poll conducted for the Climate Institute finds a 10% increase in belief in (presumably anthropogenic) climate change since 2012 to 70%, together with a range of negative results for the government: a net rating of minus 18% for the present government’s performance on climate change compared with minus 1% for the previous government in the earlier poll, and a slight majority of 34% to 30% in favour of the carbon pricing laws, a dramatic reversal from the 28% and 52% recorded in 2012.

• Roy Morgan has a phone poll of 638 respondents on the biggest problems facing Australia, which has “politics and leadership” up seven points since February to 18%, the economy up three points to 42% and “religion/immigration/human rights” down seven to 9%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The weekly result from Essential Research records a move back to the Coalition, who are up one on the primary vote to 40% with Labor down three to 38%, while the Greens and Palmer United are steady on 9% and 5%. Labor’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed from 54-46 to 52-48. Further questions relate to Iraq, with 25% thinking the 2003 invasion the right decision versus 50% for the wrong decision, 53% nominating “to support the USA” as the Howard government’s main reason for getting involved, 39% saying they would approve of US action to support the Iraq government in its current crisis with military action with 31% opposed, and 54% saying they would disapprove of Australia sending troops with 30% approving.

The poll also finds 28% felt the Greens holding the Senate balance of power was good for Australia versus 37% for bad, with 26% and 39% responses for the looming circumstance of Palmer United and micro-parties holding the balance of power. We also get the regular arsenal of “leaders attributes” questions applied to Clive Palmer and Christine Milne, with the former turning up rather poorly, with high rating for arrogant, aggressive and erratic. Christine Milne breaks 50% on “out of touch with ordinary people”, but otherwise seems to have made less of an impression. Both rate quite highly on intelligent and hard-working, but successful politicians nearly always do.

Finally, the poll finds only 19% agreeing with Tony Abbott that no election promises were broken in the budget, with 72% disagreeing.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,075 thoughts on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Johdi Packer is up for jail time. Meanwhile, on the other side of the nation, Troy Buswell gets sympathy.

    FORMER model and ex-wife of billionaire James Packer Jodhi Meares faces possible jail time after allegedly being caught driving three times over the limit when she crashed into three parked cars on Saturday night.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/sydney-confidential/jodhi-meares-facing-jail-over-drinkdriving-after-being-caught-in-bellevue-hill-allegedly-three-times-over-the-limit-and-driving-while-suspended/story-fni0cvc9-1226963155989

  2. This double death was all over the local news on Friday, now there’s more info come out it’s very sad.

    Set back on the hills above Middleton Beach, hidden among trees, the house where Jeffrey and Sheila Rushton spent their retirement is a quiet sanctuary.

    It was perfect for the “very private” couple but as their health failed, they began to worry about their future.

    Mr Rushton, 87, had severe Parkinson’s disease and 90-year-old Mrs Rushton had multiple sclerosis.

    The retired farmers were faced with two choices: ending their days in a nursing home or ending their lives at a time of their own choosing.

    Although their family were aware they were considering suicide, no one was apparently prepared for what happened on Friday.

    Neighbours say they heard a loud bang in the morning, consistent with gunfire or a small explosion.

    But the source of that noise did not become apparent until later in the day when a visitor to the Rushtons’ home arrived to find a note pinned to the door informing them of what had happened inside.

    When paramedics and police arrived, they found the husband and wife dead together in the master bedroom they had shared for years.

    Both are understood to have suffered a gunshot wound.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/24292889/dead-couple-left-note-on-door/

  3. BB @ 95

    Further to that, I understand that many of the businesses most supportive of the ‘repeal’ have stated that if it’s not in place by September, there’s no point in repealing it at all.

    Any repeal after July 1 will involve back payments – by September dealing with this becomes (apparently) more trouble than it’s worth, not just to the government but to the companies involved.

  4. Leroy …

    Apparently Len Buckeridge died of a heart attack in March this year, aged 77. Estimated worth: $1.4bn.

  5. That is a very sad story Confessions. It really is reprehensible that the law does not come to the aid of those seeking a dignified end to their lives.

  7. Morning

    The latest poll is interesting. The budget is still deemed unfair. Both Abbott and Turnbull’s personal support is not too good and yet the coalition gain 4 percentage points in the past four weeks

  10. Massive swing against ALP in NSW:

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 7m
    #Nielsen Poll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 54 (+12) ALP 46 (-12) #auspol

    Big swing to ALP in Vic:

    GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 7m
    #Nielsen Poll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 35 (-4) ALP 65 (+4) #auspol

    Who is buying this?

  12. Judging by the extreme (weird) state level swings in NSW and Vic Nielsen should have given up polling ages ago – they are useless at this caper. No wonder they are giving up.

  19. There appears to be something seriously weird with Nielsen’s state 2PP results.

    Libs up +8 in SA, up +12(!) in NSW, down -5 in Vic.

    The +12 in NSW would have had a lot of weight in the national score.

    The voters are not concentrating.

  20. Strewth! My typing this morning has been terrible!

    BK, it’s “Lack of attention to detail” and “Error in official document” for you.

  21. At the risk of teaching the sucking of eggs a reminder.

    Follow the trends. Zoomster has covered it well. You follow the trends and those of previous governments this one looks more like a second term

    Those trends have no good news for the government. The budget is becoming a negative trend from the date we have seen so far.

    Thus the desperation of trying to repeat Howard’s linking of boats to security.

  22. BB

    Coalition being down -5 in Victoria would not be surprising. There is a strong anti coalition sentiment which is being reflected by the big rallies over the past few months

  24. I doubt labor are 65-35 in Victoria, and there is no way the Libs are ahead 54-46 in NSW. 60-40 and 50-50 I might believe.

  26. Nsw has a +12 Nielsen improvement for the government, and has 32% of the population.

    This translates to around a 3.8% contribution from NSW alone nationwide (12% * 32%)

    Subtracting all the contributions of the other states, we get around a nett +3% improvement for the Coalition, as indicated by the 2PP national results.

    In other words, the entire 3% national improvement is covered by the weird NSW score.

  29. Possibly the Neilsen staff are paying a little less attention to detail as Neilsen is ceasing political polling here.

    You’d assume some staff are ‘exiting’.

  32. victoria

    Yes. Why bother if legislation expected to pass. Compare with PMJG before legislation went to senate. She expected legislation to pass

  33. The Lorax

    Yes, but the NSW component of the poll is a small sample. Who knows, they may have got a few too many Coalition supporters in their NSW sample, and perhaps a few too many Labor supporters in their Vic sample. It’s just one poll. If it’s a rogue poll then other polls will show it up.

  35. What a toad Greg Hunt is. Just heard him on RN say Australia is reducing its carbon emissions but the rest of the world has to do more.

  36. 24 reporting on Australia’s AS policy impact according to Indonesian Presidential candidates.

    George Roberts described the moderate as talking tough

  38. CTar1

    Boats & Terrorism’

    They are all at it . Scrote on 2GB with Ray Hadley doing a bit of the same as we speak. This from A Blot’s effort today.

    The conclusion is irresistible: the more Muslim immigrants we admit, the more terrorists we risk one day having…Some of our least assimilated migrants are so numerous that in some areas they form almost colonies.

  39. “@KarenMMiddleton: PM Abbott has spoken to the Egyptian President about Aust journo Peter Greste, Says he wasnt promoting Muslim Brotherhood, just reporting.”

    Hope for his release of course. However politically this rather than Abbott’s carbon tax comments being reported.

    A little silver lining to this dark cloud

  40. A lesson for abbott and Australia ?

    A Polish news magazine has obtained secret recording of Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski saying that Poland’s relationship with the United States was worthless.

    The Wprost news magazine said the recording was of a private conversation earlier this year between Sikorski and Jacek Rostowski, a member of parliament with the ruling Civic Platform who until last year was finance minister.

    Aides to Sikorski and Rostowski said they had no immediate comment. .

    According to a transcript of excerpts of the conversation that was published by Wprost on its Internet site, Sikorski told Rostowski: “You know that the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything.”

    “It is downright harmful, because it creates a false sense of security … Complete bullshit.

    We’ll get in conflict with the Germans, Russians and we’ll think that everything is super, because we gave the Americans a blow job. Losers. Complete losers.”

    According to the transcript, Sikorski described Warsaw’s attitude towards the United States using the Polish word “murzynskosc.”

    That derives from the word “murzyn,” which denotes a dark-skinned person and someone who does the work for somebody else, according to the PWN Polish language dictionary.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-22/despite-giving-americans-blow-job-polish-foreign-minster-says-us-alliance-worthless

  43. Just read this. Apologies if linked before.

    Includes something I didn’t know.

    Behind the scenes, several key members of Abbott’s party including the now-Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, visited the United States to meet with conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation, and conservative players in last year’s government shutdown debacle of 2013, including Matt Kibbe and Grover Norquist.

    http://www.salon.com/2014/06/22/how_rupert_murdoch_created_the_worlds_newest_climate_change_villain/

  45. lizzie

    A couple of Grover’s quotes. He and the Cormannator will get on well

    “I’m not in favor of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”

    .

    his goal is to bring America back to what it was “up until Teddy Roosevelt, when the socialists took over. The income tax, the death tax, regulation, all that.”

  46. If the ALP passes the budget on the basis of a dummy spit, ie “they voted for it, let them suffer”, then they are betraying all the people who voted against the LNP.

    I think most people would like to see Labor take a strong stand on behalf of the most vulernable in our society.

  47. Re BB @126: In other words, the entire 3% national improvement is covered by the weird NSW score.

    The NSW score is weird and there seems to be no obvious reason for it. The Federal Budget stinks here as much as it does elsewhere. No one seems to like it, including the Coalition State Government.

    At state level, we have a new cleanskin Premier and a benign pre-election budget. It made barely a ripple. There were headlines about you-beaut road and rail projects but it has already been forgotten. Countering this, we had the shenanigans at ICAC about 6 to 8 weeks ago, but these have faded from view and are no longer front of mind.

    Maybe the NSW result and the poll itself is a rogue. After all, in a scientific poll, one figure in 20 will be outside the MOE (assuming a 5% confidence level).

  50. The cuts you can’t see, therefore they don’t exist. Abbott-logic.

    But Government backbencher Andrew Laming says the cuts are not real cuts because they are not meant to affect the ABC’s programming.

    “The cuts that are being discussed are what are called ‘back of house’ and that would mean no change to services,” Mr Laming told reporters at Parliament House.

    “What’s happening after the election represents no cuts to the services provided by the ABC, so in that respect there’s no cuts.”

    The night before the federal election, Tony Abbott promised “no cuts to the ABC or SBS”, if he was elected prime minister.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-23/abc-may-face-further-cuts-of-up-to-2450-million/5542774

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