Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
Carna Dogs!
[Global warming stems from the ultimate market failure. Billions of people pursuing their own interests creating an incentive to pollute beyond what our planet can handle, and the solution needs to be imposed on us by an authority which has our nations’ and planet’s interests at heart.
If you’ve spent years believing that the market is unassailable, and then are presented with facts proving its fallibility, something’s gotta give. Easier, then, to believe that global warming is rubbish and that clean energy is a waste of time. The more conservative people invest themselves in this fantasy, the more powerful their belief in it becomes.
And thus, we reach the point we’re at now. Where our Prime Minister pines for an old world full of coal and steam boats, finding collegiality in his Canadian counterpart, while the rest of the world gets down to business slashing pollution and investing in 21st century energy solutions.]
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/06/10/comment-why-it-so-hard-conservatives-stop-global-warming
I can’t recall a round in which the AFL umpiring was more crapper than this round.
It is like the Coalition: getting worser and worser as the season progresses.
Jamie Siddons not the son of John Siddons.
lizzie
[Global warming stems from the ultimate market failure.]
Nonsense. It is increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2.
Abbott and the coalition usually get a poll bounce when Abbott is out of the country.
Poor old Essendon players: comprehensively dudded by their management.
[The federal government will advise Islamic counterparts there is no shift to its Middle East policy as it seeks to calm an “overreaction” to its decision to stop calling East Jerusalem “occupied”.
Islamic nations are furious at the change, which they say was made without consultation, and there are fears a diplomatic row could affect Australian exports.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is blaming Labor for what she says is a “complete and utter overreaction”, while she prepares to meet ambassadors in Canberra in coming days to try to quell tensions.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24239441/bishop-moves-to-calm-jerusalem-furore/
Labor to blame for an inanity that came out of the AG’s mouth? That’s a new level of farce even for JBishop.
Scrot Morriscum , uber Christian wot he is , latest effort.
[Asylum seeker babies secretly moved to Christmas Island
Newborn babies and their families are being secretly moved in the dead of night to Christmas Island detention centre, which is widely considered as unsuitable for young children by medical practitioners.]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/minister-tells-lawyers-to-put-a-sock-in-it-over-carmody-20140615-zs8dt.html
Boerwar
Listened to interview Gerard Whately conducted with Paul Little CEO of Essendon. In a nutshell, according to Essendon FC, it is all fhe fault of Asada and fhe AFL
confessions
[Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is blaming Labor for what she says is a “complete and utter overreaction”, while she prepares to meet ambassadors in Canberra in coming days to try to quell tensions.]
This is a disgraceful new low, even for Bishop.
The governments of a couple of dozen countries will be trying to work out how they are secretly being manipulated by a Labor Opposition in Australia.
absolutetwaddle@1999
You fool. Are you unable to discern mocking of the hubris of those who like Psephos deluded themselves into believing all was well?
Others were rightly more cautious and recognised the ongoing problems.
There is no gloating in recognising reality.
confessions
The coalition have a habit of blaming Labor, even when Labor have refused to weigh in on fhe topic
badcat
Based on the Mustang reputation you must be mad as they come.
The guys I was talking about were in a war situation!
If you could take off, things were good. Landing more difficult.
In the middle ‘flack’ could be vicious.
[ Boerwar
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 5:26 pm | Permalink
badcat @ 1943 (sic)
The P-51B had a huge internal gasoline tank capacity (around 425 gallons)
Can that be right?
]
—————————————————-
Agreed – must be wrong – I found these on a web-site – but stand to be corrected by one …..
P-51 Mustang. Internal fuel capacity for the P-51A was 180 US gal. The P-51 B/C/D models carried 269 US gal.
P-51A – 800 miles
P-51B/C – 1,200 miles
P-51D – 1,190 miles
NB: SOP combat radius for the P-51D was 450 miles at 10,000ft, or 375 miles at 25,000ft. Conditions take into account those stated above.
Figures are drawn from America’s Hundred Thousand.
briefly
One of the tricks of the Neocon trade is to blameshift for their various monstrous cockups. And, by golly, they have monstrous cockups from which to choose.
The NeoCons could bestride the world’s stage and fess up that they made a humungous, horrendous, $2 trillion cockup in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Nope. It is the Left’s fault for ‘gloating’.
bemused
I have never seen Adam claim ‘all is well’ in Iraq. I’ve just seen you claiming he’s said that.
v
Little is a disgrace.
victoria:
That shtick is getting old, esp as all these stuff ups are entirely of the coalition’s own making!
absolutetwaddle@2017
A few days ago he was proclaiming what a wonderful success the election had been.
Absolute Twaddle
I am sooooo confident you will be one of the first to sign up and go to stomp on ISIS.
All talk, invariably crap …….
Psephos claimed that Lefties would not even recognise that successful elections had been held in Iraq and Afghanistan.
To that extent, he was correct.
This generated a rather more expansive set of posts about the pluses and minuses of military intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Psephos’ timing was a tad, let us say, unfortunate in that Mosul fell within 24 hours of his election post.
bemused
Saying an election has gone well in the circumstances is very different to saying ALL is well.
I can see absolutetwaddle now, on the Sykes-Picot berm separating Iraq and Syria, firing his pistol at the never-ending horde of nerveless Sunni dervishes emanating from the desert…
No white feather for a/w, what, chaps?
psyclaw
“I am sooooo confident you will be one of the first to sign up and go to stomp on ISIS.”
I’d definitely volunteer to push a button or two, which from what I can gather is all that’s been proposed thus far. 🙂
absolutetwaddle@2023
I won’t bother repeating what Boerwar wrote @2022 as he said it so well.
absolutetwaddle@2025
How about a safety catch and a trigger?
Like, get up close and personal like you really mean it.
bemused
Boerwar’s post was indeed much more measured and accurate than yours.
badcat – Mickey Martin I know of.
The thing we had all better get used to is that the West’s command and control of world events is as dead as a doornail. Forget the 19th and 20th centuries. They are kaput.
Being of the West, we will, doubtless, be the net losers from this state of affairs.
bemused
I’m not a soldier nor do I have to be to recognise the extinction of ISIS as a fantastic thing for humanity.
absolutetwaddle@2028
A measure of the gentleness of his soul that he did not expose the full Psephos delusion.
I am not so nuanced.
bemused
What delusion? In the circumstances the elections DID go well.
Don’t you just love it when retired Ministers of a Labor government come out and endorse Liberals?
Michael Costa is a wanker! Always was a right wing nobody with a bit of sway in NSW.
[ CTar1
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
badcat
Based on the Mustang reputation you must be mad as they come.
The guys I was talking about were in a war situation!
If you could take off, things were good. Landing more difficult.
In the middle ‘flack’ could be vicious.
}
—————————————————
Agreed – I am crazy – but it was worth it …
Actually there were ww2 planes that had a worse reputation as killers
the B-26 Maurader who had a very high accident rate due to its landing speed of 120+ MPH – its sleek lines led it to be called “The Baltimore Whore” ….but was also labelled “The Widow Killer”
I read about the Northrop P-61 Black Widow night fighter that was supposed to be a nightmare to fly – but I read somewhere of a Northrop Test Pilot putting on a demo of going down the runway for about who seemed like nothing, lifting off and doing a barrel roll with the wingtip scarping the tamac – landing and saying ” whats the problem” to a dumbfounded audience ….
[bemused
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 5:49 pm | Permalink
absolutetwaddle@2028
bemused
Boerwar’s post was indeed much more measured and accurate than yours.
A measure of the gentleness of his soul that he did not expose the full Psephos delusion.
I am not so nuanced.]
Lordy. That is the first time in my life anyone has accused me having a gentle soul. *chuckles*
In response to Psephos I provided a lengthy and considered exposition of the West’s invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
The final summation: ‘utterly stupid’.
When it gets sorted into Kurdistan, Sunnistan and Shiastan, instead of lines on the map drawn in 1914 and 1945 maybe there will be some sort of peace.
When they run out of oil, the west may allow them to sort it out as well.
Those gull-winged British aircraft carrier planes with the horrendous torgue emanating from powerful rotary engines were supposed to have been fairly entertaining to get off the flight deck.
absolutetwaddle@2031
Oh good.
Here are the co-ordinates for the heart of the beast:
24°39′N 46°46′E / 24.650°N 46.767°E
Go program it in and press your button.
The Mustang was a reviver for a hard driven RAF.
Finally they could stay with and defend the bombers out and back.
Quirky A/C a problem but getting up and down a matter of pride – except maybe if you ditch a new one in a lake!
absolutetwaddle@2033
Obviously!
I believe that the current Iraqi border fairly faithfully (less Iran v Iraq War) follow the borders of a certain oil concession owned by a certain prominent western oil company pre 1914.
If so, it is the only country in the world created around an oil concession.
gor blimey
torgue = torque
bemused
“Obviously!”
Yes. Obviously.
Good to see Collingwood lose again 🙂
Boerwar@2038
What were they?
The only ones that spring to mind were the American Vought Corsair.
twaddle
Yes obviously
@GuardianAus: Afghan election workers killed in roadside bomb http://t.co/H9sthQIcTJ
Bulldogs do everyone a favour
absolutetwaddle@2044
Well then we can both continue to monitor the aftermath as peace and goodwill reign supreme.
Yay the bulldogs beat Collingwood!