Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seeker-babies-secretly-moved-to-christmas-island-20140615-3a5j3.html
Shame on you Morrison and Abbott!
Oz Tories use ‘lifters’ versus ‘leaners’
UK Tories use ‘strivers’ versus ‘skivers’.
The connection? Lynton Crosby.
NSW State Liberal Government’s big announcement for the week.
Spending big on a hospital.
Re Moody Blues’ War of the Worlds. This narration is what many thought about the possibility of an Abbott gubby. As the lyrics say
[The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one , but still they come. ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As0v-tzU-PY&feature=kp
badcat@1942
From Wikipedia.
My father’s squadron, 450, was equipped with Kittyhawks and was just about to get re-equipped with Mustangs when sent back to Australia to be demobilised.
@jarahcrook: “The Iraq war has been won” – Andrew Bolt, 7 years ago. http://t.co/gLPpT6clHP
My unfortunate streak of masochism has me watching the Bolt Report.
Peter the smirk and the ever helpful and loyal Michael Costa singing largely in harmony.
What a joke.
Wish we could light a fire under the Coalition front bench.
[”We also have to realise, as hundreds of scientists declared last month, that climate change is no longer a distant threat, but ‘has moved firmly into the present’,” Mr Obama said.
”Today’s Congress,” he declared, “is full of folks who stubbornly and automatically reject the scientific evidence. They will tell you climate change is a hoax or a fad. One member of Congress actually says the world might be cooling.”
He added: “I want to tell you this to light a fire under you. As the generation getting short-changed by inaction on this issue, I want to tell you that you cannot accept that this is the way it has to be.”]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/obama-ridicules-climate-change-deniers-20140615-zs8cl.html#ixzz34gdAQgCi
[ bemused
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 4:19 pm | Permalink
badcat@1942
My father’s squadron, 450, was equipped with Kittyhawks and was just about to get re-equipped with Mustangs when sent back to Australia to be demobilised.
]
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Bemused – I often think of Americas Industrial Might in WW 2 – when car factories were turned almost overnight into tank, aircraft, liberty ships etc factories ……then look at past industrial giant places like Detroit, which nowadays resemble bombed out German towns in 1945 …. and wonder if they could ever replicate it if need be ….
I am sure the death of American manufacture will one day become a major error …
What polls if any are we expecting this week?
badcat@1959
On a smaller scale, that was replicated in Australia, with GM making field guns, places like Hendrson Springs and Railway workshops making aircraft components etc through the whole of industry.
The yanks still have a lot more of their manufacturing capability than we do, particularly with the impending closure of vehicle manufacturing.
Oh goodness me… Michael Costa says Abbott’s trip was a success and criticism by the ALP blew up in its face.
What a moron. Give him a one way ticket to Canadia! 👿
[ bemused
The yanks still have a lot more of their manufacturing capability than we do, particularly with the impending closure of vehicle manufacturing.
]
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My dad passed on all his tools – all made in the US – tools that will last many a lifetime of hard work …. not sure of the “junk” that they sell in Bunnings these days
guytaur@1960
Newspoll, Morgan, Essential, probably ReachTEL taken on Thursday night, unsure about others.
KB
Thanks. 🙂
My interest is in how far the LNP primary is moving and how low Abbott can get in approval ratings.
badcat@1963
Hey, we used to make a lot of tools in Australia too. Remember Sidchrome spanners for example? I think there are still a few hanging on like Suttons Tools, but depressingly few.
Amazing… Rowan Dean does not think Abbott was an embarrassment in the least.
He must know something the cartoonists don’t.
lizzie
[
Wish we could light a fire under the Coalition front bench.]
The coalition front bench ? Think the Monty Python Dead Parrot sketch line “”VOOM”?!? Mate, this bird wouldn’t “voom” if you put four million volts through it! ‘E’s bleedin’ demised!”
[What a moron. Give him a one way ticket to Canadia!]
Yep Mike Costa should be given the suppository of knowledge and maybe given the new Consulate gig in Texania. By the way has Abbott said how many millions this brainfart will cost?
badcat – I was fortunate enough to know and have some conservation with 2 WW2 fighter pilots. They had parallel careers, one an officer who ended up as a Wing Commander and the other as a Sergeant Pilot.
Both did Hurricanes, Spitfires, Mosquitoes and finally the very difficult Mustang.
That it could make Turin and back with the bombers was worth the trouble of taking off and landing.
Seargent Pilot last saw a brand new one sinking in Lake Geneva – Him swimming for it.
[ bemused
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink
badcat@1963
Hey, we used to make a lot of tools in Australia too. Remember Sidchrome spanners for example?
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Yes – you are right – my ‘metrics’ are Sidchrome !!!! – not sure if the Americans made metric stuff ???? ( seeing they drive on the wrong side of the road and got out ‘rock&rolled&bluesed’ by the Beatles, Stones etc …..from which they have never recovered )
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 4m
I might be wrong but recently I’ve noticed the remaining few neutral columnists at The Australian turning feral? Write right or get out?
bemused
For your delectation
[You Canna Hand A Man A Granda Spanner ]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY4upxZ_zOs&feature=kp
Where’s Psephos?
Amid all the news of disaster from Iraq, I need to be reassured again that all is well and the election was an outstanding success.
Where is he when I need him? I am getting downright depressed.
“@JoshBBornstein: Win/Win:
Peter Reith has signed an exclusive deal with Sky & will earn a mozza.
No one need ever hear from him again.
#auspol”
Correction – lake Constance rather than Lake Geneva.
badcat@1971
Hahahaha… you are a funny guy. 😆
The most notable of all was their confusion with metrics which caused a Mars probe to bump rather harder into Mars than intended. They mixed miles with kilometers.
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
badcat – I was fortunate enough to know and have some conservation with 2 WW2 fighter pilots. They had parallel careers, one an officer who ended up as a Wing Commander and the other as a Sergeant Pilot.
Both did Hurricanes, Spitfires, Mosquitoes and finally the very difficult Mustang.
That it could make Turin and back with the bombers was worth the trouble of taking off and landing.
Seargent Pilot last saw a brand new one sinking in Lake Geneva – Him swimming for it.
]
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Ctar1 …. I should not tell you this – but there was a RAAF guy who used to fly his CAC Mustang out of my local airport …. and I flew in it with him …. time gone by but it was the ‘ultimate’ ….
poroti@1973
A good product. I still have some.
When I was a kid and we played footie we had the odd ‘stacks-on-the- mill’.
Now the whole damn game is one damn ‘stacks on the mill’ after another.
Stand by my prediction that the Government will receive a bounce in primary and Abbott’s approval/satisfaction will improve.
I believe there was a link between Sidchrome, the Senate and the Australian Democrats but I have forgotten what it was.
“My dad passed on all his tools – all made in the US – tools that will last many a lifetime of hard work …. not sure of the “junk” that they sell in Bunnings these days”
Used to work for 10 years at Sidchrome in Melbourne,hand tools have not been made in Australia for about 14 years,now made mostly in China and France.
CTar1
My history master at school was a WWII pomgolian Hurricane pilot. Shot up over France and getting sprayed with very hot engine oil on the flight back to blighty his injuries resulted in him “downgraded” to flying Wellingtons and Lancasters. Ended up in North Africa.
Of the war stories he used to tell us this is the one that really sticks in my memory. I remember thinking “No bloody wonder the Arabs don’t like us” . He told us about one of the “fun” things that they would do. If they spotted a Taureg campthey would swoop in low over the camp and then open up full power to the engines. “Tents and camels in all directions”
badcat@1978
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 44s
Today’s quiz: which prime minister was called an “arse-licker” by a senior opposition front bencher?]
The choices are plentiful….
Boerwar@1982
John Siddons was a Democrat Senator.
Arguably their best.
[CTar1
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
badcat – I was fortunate enough to know and have some conservation with 2 WW2 fighter pilots. They had parallel careers, one an officer who ended up as a Wing Commander and the other as a Sergeant Pilot.
]
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In the bomber war of WW2 – recognised as one of the greatest bomber pilots of all – a Dambuster – was aussie Harold Brownlow Morgan “Micky” Martin = who went on to become an Air Marshall and a Sir. I’ve read he – unlike the rest – went in as low as possible, dropped his bombs and went full throttle all the way home …..
@Confessions/1986
John Howard by Senior opposition front bencher Mark Latham?
Boerwar
There is a link between Sidcrome and cricket too.
confessions@1986
Howard by Latham would be my guess.
zoid:
Correct.
If this is Abbott being “friendly” to Obama, I’d hate to see him looking unfriendly.
rossmcg
Sid Chrome was a great South Australian opening bat.
You can probably still get good tools if you’re prepared to pay 5 times the price of the cheap stuff. Even at Bunnings.
Not that there’s much point now that everything is made to be disposable, not repairable.
lizzie:
That photo of Abbott just screams jealous.
badcat @ 1943 (sic)
[The P-51B had a huge internal gasoline tank capacity (around 425 gallons)]
Can that be right?
That is just less than 10 x 44 gallon drums or around 3.5 tonne.
Having spent a fair bit of time rolling 44 gallon drums of petrol on and off truck trays, I doubt it.
Poroti
Ha ha
Jamie Siddons, the senators son, was a fine player for Victoria and SA whose 10,000 odd runs in Sheffield shield makes him third behind Darren Lehmann and Jamie Cox.
It was bad luck for him that when he was at the peak of his powers in the 1980s and 1990s there were no vacancies in what was a good Australian team.
As a supporter of the Iraqi democracy I am very much looking forward to ISIS being crushed, as I’m sure the hundreds of thousands fleeing them are.
The unrestrained gloating I’m seeing from sections of the anti-war ‘left’ at ISIS’ horrific advance is as depressing as it is predictable.
“There is a link between Sidcrome and cricket too”
During the Eighties Sidchrome sponsored the Cricket broadcast on Nine network, also had a competition for the viewer to select the Supertest Team that matched the commentators selected side.