Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
CommSec @CommSec 1m
All Ords Index -0.5% after the worse than forecast May jobs report. 27k part time jobs lost. Source:IRESS ^SD pic.twitter.com/YxWxcjuhoz
IMF:
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/australia-third-highest-house-price-215715956.html
“The fund says prices are “well above the historical averages” in developed countries including Belgium, Canada, Australia, Norway and Sweden.”
“While a recovery in housing markets around the world is welcome, the IMF says it is critical to avoid another unsustainable boom in house prices like the one that preceded the GFC.”
Housing Burst?
I don’t doubt the AWU workplace reform association was a rort, but counsel assisting seems preoccupied with dates, times, places, meetings and who was there, who said what and who wrote what.
Unless he is building up to a gotcha moment, where is he heading?
[Andrew Callaghan @wombat1974 10m
Every Union except the AMA and pharmacy guild was there
@SpaceKidette 10m
Remember those critics who bagged random people with random issues Marching in March? Hockey just organised them.]
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1May%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=May%202014&num=&view=
Continuing stagnation in labour demand.
zoomster@149
And your point is totally stupid from the POV of the unemployed.
Now we are importing Policies from the USA:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-considers-importing-usstyle-school-program-with-private-industry-involvement-20140612-39y5y.html
Which means Multinational companies like IBM (as per the article) get entry level graduates, not only at cheap prices, but also shut out the employer competition.
Wilson now in a “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, “Did”, “Didn’t”, over who was working for whom and when.
The person in question is dead, so can’t be cross-examined.
briefly
I am no good at math. Is that percentage figure on the top line of that table correct?
@theheraldsun: Thousands gather in protest march to Parliament over Federal Budget http://t.co/AXbi5W8sug http://t.co/RKYtDITafj #bustthebudget
zoid
Does Abbott ever think through anything.
Interestingly I asked my hairdresser what she thought of Abbott – her response was I voted for him which is something I never will do again.
Meanwhile, Tax payers pay generous money to Cadbury:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tasmanian-cadbury-workers-sign-generous-pay-deal-after-tony-abbott-promises-them-16m-20140612-39ypy.html
“Fairfax Media revealed in February that Cadbury workers’ enterprise bargaining agreement contained generous allowances that were comparable, or even better than, workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton.”
zoidlord
It means Rupert Murdoch gains another cash cow. He has been pushing hard for it and has invested hundreds of millions in the US. No coincidence Abbott comes out with that hours after meeting his boss.
Gore on Abbott
[Al Gore: Mother Nature has ‘louder voice’ than Tony Abbott on climate
…….., said he was aware that the Australian Prime Minister had once described climate-change science using “a scatological term” and that the Abbott government had de-funded bodies established to advise the government on climate change.
“I don’t pretend to know what the basis of his thinking is, but Mother Nature has a louder voice,” he said, referring to increasing incidences of severe weather]
http://www.smh.com.au/world/al-gore-mother-nature-has-louder-voice-than-tony-abbott-on-climate-20140612-zs4wx.html#ixzz34O4Gi5Dg
rossmcg@153
Why do you say it was a rort? What constitutes a rort according to you?
“@JimCaseyFBEU: So pregnant women under 30 won’t be exempted from cut off dole for 6 months in 12. Wow. A dog act, from a mongrel govt #bustthebudget #fb”
bemused
no, actually, it isn’t.
A low unemployment rate, as we have at present, is good news for the unemployed, because it means that they have better prospects of finding a job.
There’s also the fact that a low number of unemployed combined with a high participation rate means that many unemployed are exactly in the position I am at present – their partner is employed, so money is coming into the household, and job seeking is thus a want rather than a need.
Hockey just called the budget the economic action strategy
@guytaur/168
That doesn’t even make sense, other than a 3 word slogan that doesn’t make sense.
Must be one of those IPA slogans.
“@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey: Our #Budget laid down the boldest infrastructure program in modern Australian history #auspol”
Bemused
Listening to the evidence leads me to believe that the association was sort up to get money from Theiss.
I also don’t believe Wilson is guilty of half the things people say he is but I just think this looks dodgy.
That’s my opinion, which I hope I am entitled to.
Now Hockey lying as a journalist asked don’t these job figures show labor left the economy in good shape?
Yes knock me over with a feather a journalist asking a factual question. Amazing
zoomster@167
We have a statistical artefact that does not represent the true rate of unemployment which is in fact at least double that figure.
Job advertisements are receiving hundreds of responses in my field and I believe that is fairly typical.
We do not have low unemployment and haven’t since the 1970s.
Wow go NT journalists.
zoidlord
Someone sent Joe a link to the site below and he thought it was a serious site.
http://www.changedesigns.net/public/other/strategy-jargon.html
“@vanbadham: PUT IT IN YOUR DIARY
July 6
Next demo
#bustthebudget
Please RT
It’s national.”
rossmcg@171
To my knowledge, it has log been commonplace for groups of union officials to set up a fund to assist their re-election. They get funds from whatever sources they can, including friendly employers and also by putting in a percentage of their pay.
So what’s new? *YAWN*
[“@ABCNews24: Joe Hockey: Our #Budget laid down the boldest infrastructure program in modern Australian history #auspol”]
Surely that should be history of the World?
Joe is such a klutz. He’s stuffed-up every single portfolio he’s ever been involved in. And now he’s stuffing up Treasury.
He has either his “Happy” or “Grumpy” face in a stunning portfolio of thespian tricks to rely on.
The people love him (or so he thinks). But he’s just a dupe for Abbott… again.
Poor bugger, he probably doesn’t even realize it.
Abbott’s off in America, swaggering around with billionaires and Presidents, while poor Joe has to sell a lemon back home.
Joe didn’t like Abbott’s Budgetary ideas all that much, but he put a brave face on it and convinced himself (at least) that he was all for the Tea PArty method of running a government.
When Tony comes back he’ll probably cut the rug out from under Joe all over again.
First mention of the name “Gillard” in Wilson’s inquisition.
bemused
I’m having difficulty getting work. However, I don’t conclude from that there is hidden unemployment. I conclude that there aren’t many jobs in my field in the area I live and that employers would prefer to employ a younger person who is cheaper.
Of course I think it sucks personally but I don’t fool myself into thinking that the employment stats aren’t meaningful.
Even if they’re out by a factor of whatever (and the evidence you’ve provided for this is based on shaky assumptions about the reason young people, for example, are opting for further education) they still tell a consistent story.
As for the participation rates, they’re a matter of fact. By your own admission, the last time we had ‘full employment’ was when the proportion of married women in the workforce was a lot lower than it is today.
Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 2.1 million hours (0.1%) to 1,598.6 million hours.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1May%202014?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6202.0&issue=May%202014&num=&view
The ABS has recorded eight consecutive months of declines in hours worked in trend terms. In October 2013 the ABS recorded an aggregate 1,647.9 million hours million hours worked. By May, absolute labour demand had fallen by about 50 million hours or 3% – a significant fall, equivalent to about 4.5% on an annual basis.
In October last year the labour force was estimated in trend terms to comprise 12.292 million and by May had increased to 12.346, an increase of 48,000 or 0.39%. (Annual growth rate is about 0.6%)
Clearly the labour force is growing less quickly than the population but still more quickly than labour demand.
This reflects continuing stagnation in the domestic economy, also reflected in weak domestic contribution to GDP and declining real wages.
The LNP’s budget clearly was not framed with this background in mind and poses a threat to the vitality of the economy.
With the Royal Commission looking at union political donations, this bit of research might provide some balance and food for future action:
‘Unless we have real transparency, accountability and enforcement of political donations legislation, the money might as well be given in plain packages like the bad of days of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s brown paper bags.’
Townsville Money Trail: Political Donors in Queensland’s Deep North
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 2m
April employment revised lower by 3,900…
Zoomster
The employment stats have been pretty meaningless for some time because they define employed as something ridiculous like 1 hr in the last week.
Briefly seems to have the correct approach ie number of hours actually worked. This is a useful measure, the rest is window dressing
“@SwannyQLD: The only person waging class war is Hockey with his lifters and leaners and intergenerational warfare against the young #delusional”
Murdochs entry into education is an each way bet. His newspaper business is on borrowed time, his cash cow right now is pay TV, that he has managed to extend the life of by killing the NBN, but fibre to the home will be here eventually because nothing else makes any sense, at which point Rupert can use it to deliver education resources, as pay TV dies.
[“Fairfax Media revealed in February that Cadbury workers’ enterprise bargaining agreement contained generous allowances that were comparable, or even better than, workers at the SPC Ardmona cannery in Shepparton.”]
What federal seat is the Cadbury factory in? Just curious.
“@naomiwoodley: 2 fmr Salvos welfare staff on Manus Is & Nauru have told a Senate inq. they were recruited through Facebook w/out an interview or training.”
[ Murdochs entry into education is an each way bet. ]
Surely there is a clear conflict of interest here?
If he educates people, won’t they stop reading his newspapers?
Player One@190
He doesn’t care about the newspapers. They don’t report news anymore. They are only useful as propaganda. If they die he wouldn’t give a stuff. Selling “education” could be even more effective as propaganda than the nearly dead newspapers.
Kakuru
I believe it is in the seat of Denison
Roger Miller #187
Fast broadband opens up content deliverers such as Murdoch to so much more competition.
His current high level of influence will gradually dissipate.
Melbourne puts on another huge rally today. Bust the budget. Suck on that hockey
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/thousands-join-unionbacked-protest-against-abbott-governments-budget-20140612-zs5aw.html
victoria
It is . I had a quick look at its history and goodness its first couple of MPs were flexible about which party they represented.
[Sir Philip Fysh Protectionist 1903–1906
Anti-Socialist 1906–1909
Commonwealth Liberal 1909–1910
William Laird Smith Labor 1910–1916
National Labor 1916–1917
Nationalist 1917–1922]
Rex Douglas@193
Hence the push to supply “education”
Poroti
Things were more fluid back in the day. 🙂
I was unable to watch the RC so far, but has Wilson’s lawyer asked any questions of Wilson yet?
There’s no reason to accept the same old accusations of class warfare schtick from a mob that are happy to argue that workers are paid too much. It’s their means of shutting down discussion.
dtt
[The employment stats have been pretty meaningless for some time because they define employed as something ridiculous like 1 hr in the last week. ]
Indeed, but this is offset by recording the number of people who say that, although they’re technically employed, they would like to work more hours. If that’s hugely out of pace with the employment figures, that’s always noted.
The ‘new’ method of assessment has been in place for decades now, so it does have meaning, and – more importantly – allows us to compare our unemployment rate with that of other countries.