Despite the interruption of the long weekend, two new results have been added to this week’s BludgerTrack polling aggregate: the regular weekly result from Essential Research, and the first Morgan phone poll to emerge since the election (as distinct from Morgan’s regular multi-mode poll, which had an off-week in its fortnightly publication schedule).
The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research finds Labor gaining a point off the Coalition on both the primary vote, on which it now leads 40% to 37%, and two-party preferred, where the lead is out from 53-47 to 54-46. Other findings from Essential this week are that 43% think Australian society less fair and equal than 20 years ago compared with 28% for more, with all but a few respondents declining to sign on the idea that equality and fairness are important to Australian society. A large majority of 48% to 21% agreed the next generation will be worse off than today’s, on what basis I’d be curious to know. The poll also inquired about drone strikes, finding 45% disapproving of the United States’ use theoreof against 35% who approved. Fifty-eight per cent of respondents professed themselves concerned by the potential for Australians to be hit versus 33% not concerned, after it was put to them that “two male Australian citizens were killed in a drone strike in Yemen that targeted alleged terrorists”.
Essential is also one of two pollsters this week to bring us leadership approval ratings, this being a regular monthly feature in Essential’s case. The latest numbers for Tony Abbott have approval steady at 35% and disapproval up three to 58%; Bill Shorten up three on both approval and disapproval, to 38% and 40%; and Shorten widening the two-party preferred lead he cracked for the first time in the previous poll, from 37-36 to 40-36. The other leadership poll came from Roy Morgan courtesy of one of its increasingly infrequent small-sample phone polls, this one targeting 560 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week. The poll has Abbott on 34% approval and 59% disapproval, which is well in line with Essential Research and last week’s Newspoll, while Bill Shorten comes in a little below par on 35% and 45%. Shorten also holds what by recent polling standards is a narrow lead of 40-36 as preferred prime minister.
Morgan also takes a timely venture into preferred party leader polling, finding Malcolm Turnbull to be towering above Tony Abbott with a 44% for preferred Coalition leader against 15% for Abbott, 11% for Joe Hockey, 7% for Julie Bishop and 5% for Barnaby Joyce. Inflating Turnbull’s lead is a 56-1 advantage among Labor supporters, with Coalition supporters breaking 35-29 for Abbott. Bill Shorten holds a modest lead as preferred Labor with 22% against 16% for Tanya Plibersek and 15% for Anthony Albanese.
The fine print of the Morgan release also advises us that voting intention figures from the poll had the Coalition on 38.5%, Labor on 36%, the Greens on 12.5% and Palmer United on 3.5%, which is an above-average result for the Coalition on recent form, and a strikingly weak one for Palmer United. These figures have been thrown into the mix for BludgerTrack, and given the strong historic record of Morgan’s phone polling and the lack of other major data this week, they loom fairly large in the result. In particular, the recent surge to Palmer United has been blunted to the tune of 2%, which I would want to see corroborated by other polling before I read too much into it. There is also a slight easing in Labor’s lead on two-party preferred, translating into losses on the seat projection of two in Queensland and one each in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, counterbalanced by a gain in Western Australia.
The new leadership date results in Tony Abbott’s personal rating continuing to rise slowly from the canvas following its post-budget collapse, while Bill Shorten’s levels off around a net rating of zero. The substantial lead Shorten has opened as preferred prime minister is little changed.
CTar1
[So the Saudi’s ordered 200 Leopard II’s instead]
How big was the bribe? 😉
@TheKouk: My Latest: The carbon price is working perfectly. Households are consuming less energy http://t.co/TefRaHbnAJ
bemused/poroti
Interestingly, as OH pointed out to me’ the Leopards were ordered with all the crowd control options like tear gas canister launchers, etc.
CTar1@1902
I didn’t realise there were such options.
Tanks usually have launchers for smoke grenades which I suppose could just as easily launch tear gas or other even lethal ordnance.
CTar1
Main battle tanks the perfect crown control option .
I thought the story Shorten wasn’t going to be happy about was this:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/unclaimed-money-grab-to-be-cut-20140614-3a4ji.html
The Lying Friar in full flight. Fact is he supported the Brandis comments on “disputed territory” in NY, and when he gets to Texas he flips to obfuscation.
Now the diplomatic cables through to his Airforce jet, known as Abbott Brainfart One ™, must have caused the airwaves to meltdown, especially from the Nat Agrarian Socialists. Even they must be thinking where did we get this freelancing fool from with his wacky views?
Actually, if they would look at a certain demented plutocrat in NY and examine his views on Israel, and his lucrative investments in Israeli hi tech, they may get the hint as to the source.
[Tony Abbott has sought to play down the backlash over Australia’s decision to refer to East Jerusalem as “disputed” rather than “occupied” territory, saying the government had made only a “terminological clarification”.
The prime minister said the government had made no change in policy and strongly supported a two-state solution. But he acknowledged it was an “extremely sensitive” topic and said the foreign affairs minister, Julie Bishop, would meet ambassadors of countries that had raised objections.
Representatives of 18 nations, including Indonesia, protested against the decision to Australia’s Foreign Affairs Department, with the head of the general delegation of Palestine to Australia, Izzat Abdulhadi, warning it would “unfortunately” influence trade between Australia and the Arab world.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/15/tony-abbott-disputed-east-jerusalem-merely-a-clarification
CTar1
Re crowd control on the Leopard 2A . Check out this video from the 15-25 second mark for one use of a crown control option. Not one I’d thought of.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1NYxbIqDYc
bemused
[Tanks usually have launchers for smoke grenades which I suppose could just as easily launch tear gas]
I’d say you’re right that they are multi-purpose.
[ poroti
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 1:51 pm | Permalink
CTar1
Re crowd control on the Leopard 2A . Check out this video from the 15-25 second mark for one use of a crown control option. Not one I’d thought of.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1NYxbIqDYc
]
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Tanks for that video, Poroti 🙂
It reminded me of the Shermans in the bocage hedgerows in Normandy that caused the tanks to ride up and expose their belly etc ….. until Sgt Curtis Grubb Culin III came up with the “hedge cutter”
Cranford Soldier Invented World War II “Tank Tusks”
Device helped Allied victory and boosted troop morale.
http://cranford.patch.com/groups/opinion/p/cranford-soldier-invented-world-war-ii-tank-tusks
M4A4 Sherman “Hedge cutter” Rhinoceros
http://www.dday-overlord.com/eng/sherman_hedgecutter_rhinoceros.htm
More love being shown for our Prime Miniature. Liked the magistrate’s comment. Tip of the hat to leone for the find.
[A BUNBURY man has been fined $500 after he was arrested chanting “Tony Abbott is an a***hole” while out for a night on the town.
………………………………….
Magistrate Paul Heaney told Rooke that even if what he was chanting was true, it was not a defence
…..Mr Rooke saw the federal budget on the Tuesday (before the incident) and did not like it and believes the events the police have stated likely occurred]
http://www.bunburymail.com.au/story/2344252/bunbury-man-arrested-over-federal-budget-dismay/?cs=279
[To a considerable extent, Delaney drew on her own experiences at Melbourne University’s Catholic institution, Newman College.
This is where fresher Delaney first struck senior girl Peta Credlin, going through the paces of her enforcer routine:
“We all lined up in a quadrangle and these limousines pulled up and people got out dressed in academic gowns and sunglasses who were extremely threatening, screaming at us. One of them was Peta Credlin. I have never been able to watch her on TV since without shivering.”
For a lass from the bush, Brigid found this bossy-boots hierarchy daunting. Among other things, Credlin had one of the freshers perform a rap dedicated to her. “If Peta Credlin turns up in a gown and orders you to do something ridiculous,” Delaney recalled, “you are going to do it.”
This must – at least in part – explain why ministers are doing such odd things.]
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2014/06/14/gadfly-dogging-the-abc/1402668000#.U50eA5SSyKI
lizzie@1911
Whatever her other attributes, Peta Credlin is a physically imposing woman.
This no doubt adds extra weight to her arguments.
Bemused
Credlin is a textbook example of a sociopathic bully.
These odious individuals destroy organisational cultures and in many cases people’s lives.
I have experienced this first hand and it takes years to get over the effects.
Not one iota of credibility should be given to this person.
Credlin is a bully. A nasty and vicious bully.
poroti
Very nice. Though I notice the caption of the picture:
[A Bunbury man was arrested while out on the town for chanting defamatory comments about Prime Minister Tony Abbot]
The article says Matthew David Rooke was charged with “disorderly behaviour in public”, not any civil action for defamation.
Indeed, that picture caption might be impugning, or quite possibly defaming, said Matthew David Rooke, since the magistrate quite properly it seems, left open the question of the veracity of his statement.
Lizzie
When you’ve been the victim of bullies you learn to identify them.
This story just reinforces how I feel about the woman when I see her.
Mind you, my mother told me to toughen up so I adopted an Eastwood type snarl over time arching myself up which sent them packing. All the while my stomach was doing backflips.
Towards the end of my schooling, which wasn’t much I had others come to me to retrieve items from the bully groups.
Only had to snarl and look like I was itching for a fight and the items would be returned immediately. 😆
badcat
Saw a doco on D-Day that suggested that the chaps from the Royal Engineers developing a number of such “Wacky Racers” type vehicles was a large factor in the greater US casualties during the landing phase . The US not bothering so much .
[ poroti
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 2:14 pm | Permalink
More love being shown for our Prime Miniature. Liked the magistrate’s comment. Tip of the hat to leone for the find.
A BUNBURY man has been fined $500 after he was arrested chanting “Tony Abbott is an a***hole” while out for a night on the town.
………………………………….
Magistrate Paul Heaney told Rooke that even if what he was chanting was true, it was not a defence
]
————————————————-
I have remarked on it in the past but I well remember the ABC news attending a union rally in Queensland in the days of Joh Bjelke-Petersen ….. and how it escaped someones eyes but they interviewed some unionists – one of which was wearing a T-shirt with words refering to Joh and his wife Flo – it read “Flo HAS one, Joh IS one ” ….
lizzie
Unbelievable. That was at uni .That sort of shite is boarding school stuff. Even more amazing is that it was happening so recently. What a putrid institution.
Bernardi has his say on the tea party
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senator-cory-bernardi-points-to-us-tea-party-20140614-3a4k3.html
[ poroti
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 2:34 pm | Permalink
badcat
Saw a doco on D-Day that suggested that the chaps from the Royal Engineers developing a number of such “Wacky Racers” type vehicles was a large factor in the greater US casualties during the landing phase . The US not bothering so much .
]
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I have read that the Brits DID offer the Americans the use of their “funnies ” in the tank department …..but their commander, Omar Bradley’s contempt for”British under-confidence and over – insurance” knocked them back. The only tanks they had were the DD “swimming tanks” but they launched them too far out in rough seas and most sank – but they paid dearly on Omaha Beach for Bradleys decision …
Poroti
They don’t have counselling at most educational institutions for nothing.
Whether it’s primary, secondary school or uni, bullies abound and unfortunately many prosper from their behaviour.
[ Dee
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 2:52 pm | Permalink
Poroti
They don’t have counselling at most educational institutions for nothing.
Whether it’s primary, secondary school or uni, bullies abound and unfortunately many prosper from their behaviour.
]
————————————————–
If even half the stories are true about *him* …. they even end up as a Prime Minister ……
*him* – guess who
badcat
[”British under-confidence and over – insurance”]
A US tradition. The poms discovered guarded convoys were the way to go. The yanks when they entered the war thought that was for wimps. Result being what the German U-Boat guys called ” The Happy Time”. So convoys it was.
Then it was bombing Germany. Night time raids and fighter escorted bombers. What a bunch of wimps those poms were . Result being the “happy time” for the Luftwaffe.
They do learn but can be a bit slow about it.
An interesting article with a great heading.
Harper and Abbott: Two fossils fooling no one
poroti@1923
The yanks had a theory that if you put enough guns and gunners into bombers and they flew in tight formation they could beat off the fighters.
Not all theories are successful.
Badcat
Can you imagine how the victims of Rabbott & Co. feel when they see the morons in the media bathed with power and success?
[ poroti
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 2:56 pm | Permalink
badcat
”British under-confidence and over – insurance”
A US tradition. The poms discovered guarded convoys were the way to go. The yanks when they entered the war thought that was for wimps. Result being what the German U-Boat guys called ” The Happy Time”. So convoys it was.
Then it was bombing Germany. Night time raids and fighter escorted bombers. What a bunch of wimps those poms were . Result being the “happy time” for the Luftwaffe.
They do learn but can be a bit slow about it.
]
Poroti – I am not sure if you have read it but there was excellent book written by the largely discredited ( halocaust denier ) historian David Irvine – ” The War Between The Generals ” ….which exposes the “fights’ between the American and The Brits at the highest levels Monty and Patton, Bradley, Ike ….. the bomber barons … the French … its a wonder how we won the war as they fought more with each other than the Germans ( I guess Hitlers wars with HIS Generals just happened to be worse )
Dee
The prospering of bullies really comes down to the institution. I went to a boarding school where the whole culture encouraged bullying. It has changed enormously thanks to a great headmaster who arrived just after I left.
It has only been in hind sight and with age that I can see that so much of the bullying was pretty much an inevitable result of the culture at the school.
The sort of people that become bullies are everywhere. It is a matter of not allowing cultures that cultivate their behaviour to flourish.
Interesting table in that article I linked to.
Canada seems to export a lot more manufactured products than Australia does.
I am seriously disturbed by our lack of manufactured exports.
The Saudi ones have the ‘skirt’ option.
So the look like our very old M113’3 – chicken cages on wheels.
[Canada seems to export a lot more manufactured products than Australia does.
I am seriously disturbed by our lack of manufactured exports]
You’d have to manufacture it before you could possibly export it.
With our climate obviously we’d be a world leader in solar research manufacturing and export … oh wait …
[ Dee
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 3:05 pm | Permalink
Badcat
Can you imagine how the victims of Rabbott & Co. feel when they see the morons in the media bathed with power and success?
]
——————————————–
You are so right, Dee – like Lizzie posted about Credlin
” One of them was Peta Credlin. I have never been able to watch her on TV since without shivering.”
It tests my faith in …… why is it that these people seem to survive and profit ???? ….. when many other decent,deserving human beings are crushed, belittled, die young etc etc …… the world is a very peculiar place to me … I just hope when their day does come, they pay dearly for the harm and cruelty they inflicted ….
WeWantPaul@1931
But one of many lost opportunities.
We were in the forefront of farm machinery manufacture once. Another field in which we should have at least a presence.
[But one of many lost opportunities.
We were in the forefront of farm machinery manufacture once. Another field in which we should have at least a presence.]
As Bushfire Bill says, we can always do each other’s laundry for a living!
[ bemused
Posted Sunday, June 15, 2014 at 3:02 pm | Permalink
poroti@1923 badcat
The yanks had a theory that if you put enough guns and gunners into bombers and they flew in tight formation they could beat off the fighters.
Not all theories are successful.
]
————————————————–
The ONE thing above all that saved the Yanks – was the genius who put a Rolls Royce Merlin engine into a Mustang fighter airframe to create the long range fighter that won the air war …
….. otherwise they would have been shot out of the sky …
It is said that when Herman Goring looked up one day and saw his first Mustang over Berlin he said something like “The war is lost” ….
Lazy Sunday song of the day. Just heard it on JJ and thank goodness its back. Belafonte at his best…
“Where the rum is fine any time of year….”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFFlWtlDRqk
I’ve had this song in my head all day.
Most befitting the weather!
Forever Autumn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsCdlX-5UjE&feature=kp
badcat@1935
Yes, I have heard that before, but am not sure it tells the truth about the development of the Mustang.
They were certainly an amazing aircraft.
Dee
Considering where that comes in War of the Worlds I hope that is an omen on where we are now and where we are going to end up at the next Federal election in either a DD or 2016.
Dee
Justin Hayward. Wiki says he changed his name from Dean Street. Not sure I see the improvement there.
But I love the photos of the Moody Blues, all freshly washed hair, big mustaches and flutes!
Guytaur
The original melody was a jingle for Lego commercial would you believe.
[
bemused
It is said that when Herman Goring looked up one day and saw his first Mustang over Berlin he said something like “The war is lost” ….
Yes, I have heard that before, but am not sure it tells the truth about the development of the Mustang.
They were certainly an amazing aircraft
]
————————————————
FROM : The Effects of the P-51 Mustang In World War II
After the plane began to go into combat, some people began looking into the idea of fitting the Mustang with a more powerful engine. As the RAF said, it was “a bloody good airplane, only it needs a bit more poke.” (Grant 22) One day, an RAF test pilot was flying a P-51A and the thought occurred to him that the plane could be fitted with a Rolls-Royce Merlin engine, which had about 300 more horsepower and included a supercharger. He suggested it to Rolls-Royce’s Chief Aerodynamic Engineer and “both men realized that the combination of this sort of performance with the aerodynamically efficient airframe of the Mustang would revolutionize its potential.” (Grant 22) This plan was duly carried out and in November 1943, the first group of P-51B’s arrived in England. Features, Advantages, and Benefits of the P-51 This final Mustang design was superior to anything else that flew at the time. The P-51B had a huge internal gasoline tank capacity (around 425 gallons) and its engine was very economical, using about half the gasoline of other American fighters. This meant its range was 1080 miles and could be extended to 2600 miles when extra drop-tanks were attached to the wings. This made its range far more than any Allied or German fighter’s. As far as performance went, it was superior to all others as well. Neither of the other two main American fighters could compete; the P-47 was too heavy and the P-38 had too many technical problems. The British fighters, the Spitfire and the Hurricane did not have the range, speed, or power. But most important was its superiority over the German fighters, the most important of which were the FW-190 and the Me-109. The Mustang was 50 mph faster than the Germans up to 28,000 ft beyond which it was much faster than the FW-190 and still substantially faster than the Me-109. The Mustang had between 3000 and 4000 lbs more weight, and so was able to outdive either German plane. The tightness of its turns was much better than the Me-109 and slightly better than the FW-190. (Grant 31, Boyne 389-390, Bailey 153) The result of all of this was that the Allies now had a plane that could go with the bombers all the way to and from their targets, fight and defeat the bombers’ German attackers, and not run out of fuel
http://www.novelguide.com/reportessay/history/world-war-i-ii/effects-p-51-mustang-world-war-ii
Well, blow me down… that’s something I didn’t know.
Reading the Wikipedia history of the P-51 Mustang, it was a British-commissioned specification, designed and built in America, and the Yanks only took it over as their main fighter later on, after the British had started using it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_P-51_Mustang
Dee
I am glad it did not stay just as a jingle. It fits the story of the Journalist remembering good times and fearing bad to come for him and his love so well.
Gosh the Bulldogs are giving it to Collingwood. Could there be an upset? Speaking of upsets I have tipped the Deamons to take apart Essendon.
@AliAbunimah: Chelsea Manning writes in @nytimes about the crimes in Iraq that compelled her to act with such courage http://t.co/a1W9hAMCnr
Some of the Moody Blues tunes have dated but you can’t beat the lyrics.
Dee
I am not a fan of the name Moody Blues. It makes me think of Abbott with depression.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/obama-ridicules-climate-change-deniers-20140615-zs8cl.html
Poor Tony!