Seat of the week: Maranoa

Covering Queensland’s south-western interior, Maranoa has been in National/Country Party hands without interruption for over 70 years, current member Bruce Scott having assumed the seat in 1990.

Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.

Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.

Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.

The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,772 comments on “Seat of the week: Maranoa”

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  4. Oh, so it seems Bill Shorten won pre-selection for a seat Kernohan had been promised – before he, Kernohan, had his mental breakdown.

    Geez, I’m sorry, but from the “evidence” so far, I reckon Kernohan is just hell-bent on retribution.

    And what better way to do that than to blame a female, after all you didn’t have the balls to confront your male nemesis.

    I speak from the position of scapegoat. A female scapegoat.

    If you can’t touch a bloke, attack a woman because you didn’t have the fucking wherewithal to get anywhere in the first place.

    Hey Kernohan/Michael Smith, Rupert et all. Pfft. Grow the fuck up. Grow some actual courage, instead of playing with your balls, will ya.

    Jeezus bloody Christ. Do we have to listen to grown men bawling their eyes out because they didn’t get what they wanted, when they wanted it?

    Tantrumsville. I dealt with two-year-olds way back when. No wonder Julia Gillard pissed all over you. And no wonder you stupid little wankers could think of nothing else than revenge.

    At least the women in the Libs or Nats know their place. They sycophant their way up the ladder.

    And the old Laborites do not want women there at all. They’ll tear them down just as much as they’d punch their kith and kin in a blind alley.

    Nothing’s changed.

  6. This Nowicki character is Gillard’s Moriarty, isn’t he?

    He is not slated to appear before the Commission, yet almost every witness has mentioned his name.

    We hear he tried to get Wilson to “turn state’s evidence”. He admits that himself. He told Wilson he was in trouble. Wilson says he offered to get him *out* of trouble. Why else would he want Wilson to talk? To self-incriminate himself, or more likely to incriminate Gillard?

    One thing is becoming clear: Nowicki’s involvement is directed at Julia Gillard, not at some kind of “closure” (Kernahan’s word) or “justice” for the working man. It is the Get Gillard Royal Commission.

    Why else would millions be spent on conducting it, just to figure out who paid for some renovations to an old house 20 years ago?

    The Australian is predictably running only with one side of the evidence… again. They are quoting “demning” testimony, without any reference at all to the cross-examinations, or to the evidence being based a lot of the time on assumptions.

    For example, the builder’s assumption that the cash handed to Gillard in front of him was directly for the renovations. Even though he wasn’t paid for a couple of weeks.

    Then there was Kernahan’s assumption that Wilson was behind his bashing. And that Bill Shorten’s warning to him – when Shorten was a junior union officer – in some way was the first step on the ladder to a Shorten Prime Ministership (and THAT can’t be allowed to happen).

    Kernahan came across as very bitter, very twisted and paranoid. Everything bad that has happened to him since he was asked to explain the $6500 cheque he received from Wilson he has ascribed to either Wilson, Gillard or Shorten, or all three.

    Michael Smith was sacked because his employer agreed, under threat of legal action, to require him to retract his interview with Kernahan. He wasn’t victimized, as Kernahan alleges. Fairfax wasn’t some kind of stooge organization (especially at the time) run by the Labor Party. Snith’s dismissal was a simple case of cutting off a potential defamation suit, before it cost them millions.

    Nothing is really new here. We’ve heard it all before. The innuendos, assumptions, faulty logic, paranoia and behind it all the Moriarty-like figure of Nowicki.

    Sure, union politics is tough and brutal. Tell us something we DIDN’T know. Kernahan went into a sook that has lasted for 20 years. Cambridge has had the matter investigated and re-investigated for the same period. The 80 year old builder strung a sequence of random events together and built a case on it.

    Alongside Nowicki are the Victorian Police, preparing numerous witness statements and telling people to just “sign here, here and initial here”. Blewitt didn’t even read his own statement of this kind. He didn’t have a clue what was in it. God knows how any of these statements can be used in any future criminal court proceedings. God help us if there *are* criminal proceedings to come out of this, or (worse) *despite* the Royal Commission.

    Millions of dollars spent to evaluate the smears, senses of grievance and hatreds of a bunch of men, investigating whether Gillard paid for her verandah and her bathroom to get fixed up. What a bloody scandal!

    Shorten;s advice to Kernahan was to give it up. It was only going to bring him grief.

    Shorten was right about that one.

    Nowicki should testify. He is the black hand behind all this, the hit man. Abbott set up the Commission to get Gillard. How anyone, much less a Prime Minister can be so consumed by hatred and vengeance as to do what he has done to get his enemy, is beyond me.

    It should be beyond *anyone* to understand.

  7. I have just improved on doG’s handiwork by removing an imperfection on a bird in an image which I took a couple of days ago.

    If I wish, I can click on ‘revert’ and the imperfection will be restored.

    Now, instead of merely enjoying an image of a beautiful little Eastern Yellow Robin with a very, very minor imperfection, I am beset by a dilemma which is paralysing my ability to act at all.

  10. I think you’re over analysing Psyclaw. A more likely explanation is that she laughed at the size of his dick on an intimate occasion in their past.

  12. “@FarrellPF: Evidence from Transfield now at the Manus Inquiry is completely wrong. Transfield has an obligation to disclose subcontractors.”

    “@FarrellPF: The requirement is a standard part of the commonwealth procurement guidelines.”

  14. “@FarrellPF: Guardian Australia requested Transfield contractor details from DIBP weeks ago, and were granted it. Transfield’s evidence is incorrect.”

  15. [Boerwar
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 3:48 pm | Permalink

    If I wish, I can click on ‘revert’ and the imperfection will be restored. ]

    There are smart photo apps that do just that as well as retain a copy of the original.

    Too late though in this instance…..

  17. Bw

    [Did you enjoy my Kurdish menu?]

    Yes. I thought you had the park covered.

    On birds – usually in late summer I have lots of Rosella’s around of both coastal and western types.

    This year bugger all.

  19. Meanwhile in NY, the Lying Friar has a 2 and a half hour meeting with Murdoch – only Peta between them. Some great photos in this story

    [The Prime Minister was spotted arriving at the media mogul’s upscale apartment near Central Park on Tuesday evening local time. He left about two-and-a-half hours later.

    His chief-of-staff Peta Credlin also attended the Murdoch meal.

    The two came from an event with the Asia Society after an action-packed day in New York City.

    Mr Abbott had expressed a hope that he and Mr Murdoch could meet during his time in New York, calling the News Corp boss a ”distinguished Australian”.

    A spokeswoman for Mr Abbott could not say what the Australian Prime Minister and the Australian-born mogul, and long-time US citizen, would discuss during their rendezvous, only that it was a private meal]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-fulfils-wish-to-dine-with-rupert-murdoch-in-new-york-20140611-39wsh.html#ixzz34J7rQQ9r

  20. bw

    If the photo is on computer check out the edit menu. Could be an undo command. Will undo deletes and changes.

    Or if you did not save changes the original would be there.

  21. Wow. Harry Nowicki had the ar of Mr PotatoHead

    [Lawyer Harry Nowicki has told the ABC he had been in contact with former attorney-general Robert McClelland in relation to the Australian Workers Union “slush fund” scandal.

    Mr Nowicki said he misunderstood 7.30 host Sarah Ferguson’s question last night when he was asked if he had ever discussed the case with members of the parliamentary Labor Party.

    “I spoke to Robert McClelland, not in his capacity as a Labor minister but as a participant in court proceedings in 1995 and 1996 involving the AWU and Bruce Wilson,” he said today.

    Mr Nowicki said Mr McClelland suggested he contacted The Australian newspaper’s Hedley Thomas who was also investigating the case.

    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-11/nowicki-changes-story-on-contact-with-labor-minister/5516114

  25. BB

    I tuned in late today, in terms of the RC.

    I assume the questions I saw asked of Athol James were by Gillard’s counsel.

    Are you able to ascertain why Gillard’s counsel did not cross-examine Kernohan?

    I realise that by so doing, apart from giving Kernohan a platform to reiterate his vengeance on Gillard through his perceived emasculation by Wilson, that there is a possibility to allow some sort of blackening of Gillard’s own character, I thought RCs were supposed to get at the truth of a matter.

    And I realise that there are strict ToRs. I’m not talking about them, I’m just wondering why Gillard’s counsel did not take the opportunity to get into him.

    Bit like a defendant not taking the stand, and a jury surmising guilt even though you’re not supposed to draw that conclusion.

  26. So Mr nowicki was asked three times if he had spoken to someone from the Labor party re the matter, and he repeatedly said no. Now he says he misunderstood the question. Pigs arse

  29. [Do Australians find it passing strange that everywhere Abbott goes Peta is right beside him? Not a good look in my opinion.]

    not if the ventriloquist and dummy meme is true as is obvious

  31. Credlin is the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff. What I would like to know is who is masterminding Abbott through his earpiece.

    The real problem is all the lost in translation stuff you would expect with someone who is mired in the 1950s.

    I imagine it goes in something like,

    ‘Je suis le generalissimo d’Australie’

    ..and it comes out something like, ‘Je suis un tetecoq’.

  32. Do Australians find it passing strange that everywhere Abbott goes Peta is right beside him? Not a good look in my opinion.

    Don’t politician’s CoS accompany them to most important meetings? It’s just that Credlin is so noticeable in any group shot because of her gender, height and err… striking countenance.

  33. CTaR1

    Winter is the slow season.

    But we have just had our first Australian Bittern ever in the ACT so everyone is agog. Well, nearly everyone. Well, just a few twitchers.

  37. So the treasonous Rudd faction soldier, Mr McClelland, conspired with the man tasked to bring down the Gillard Govt, Mr Nowicki ??

    PM Gillard had no chance.

    It was a phenomenal effort to survive and pass legislation for so long .

  38. [Mr Nowicki said Mr McClelland suggested he contacted The Australian newspaper’s Hedley Thomas who was also investigating the case]

    Yeah. Well done, McClelland. He who single-handedly (he he he) resurrected the shit against Gillard when SURPRISINGLY she’d actually got a resurgence in the polls.

    Couldn’t have that, could we Ruddista lads and ladettes.

    Had to bring her down again. Had to bring down your own party. Fuck Labor.

    As I said before, Rudd Labor would tear a woman down just as much as they’d punch their kith and kin in a blind alley.

    Rudd was just as much as bleeding sook as Kernohan.

    Didn’t we, oops didn’t Labor, dodge a bullet with Kernohan not gaining pre-selection. Unfortunately the same can’t be said of the destructive Rudd.

  39. “@joshgnosis: “The Honourable Joseph Benedict Hockey v Fairfax Media Publications” in the Federal Court tomorrow for first directions.”

  40. Rex Douglas@2537

    So the treasonous Rudd faction soldier, Mr McClelland, conspired with the man tasked to bring down the Gillard Govt, Mr Nowicki ??

    PM Gillard had no chance.

    It was a phenomenal effort to survive and pass legislation for so long .

    Kicking off ‘Treason Watch’ again?

  41. Kernahan says he made his statement the the Victorian Police and gave them the only copy. How did it end up on various websites including Smith’s and Bolt’s?

    We know it was the plod version as it has their stamp on it. \

    Or is Kernahan mistaken and he was given a photocopy of his evidence (which seems to be usual plod practice) and he gave it to Smith et al?

  42. [ BK

    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 4:03 pm | Permalink

    Do Australians find it passing strange that everywhere Abbott goes Peta is right beside him? Not a good look in my opinion.
    ]

    —————————————————–

    Fair suck of the sauce bottle, BK …..when you are a universal hottie like our Tony ….its hard to keep the women at bay.

    “The fickleness of women I love is only equaled by the infernal constancy of the women who love me.”

    George Bernard Shaw

  43. The Abbott – Murdoch dinner was a private personal affair, so I assume that a political staffer (Credlin is a public servant) would not be present.

  45. The Rudd faction waded into the swamp with the filth to bring down their own leader.

    They all succeeded… and in the process destroyed the ALP Govt.

  46. Rex Douglas
    [PM Gillard had no chance.

    It was a phenomenal effort to survive and pass legislation for so long .]

    Before you hammer yourself unconscious, isn’t it about time you recognised Gillard’s phenomenal achievements?

    Hamstrung as she was by minority government, dealing with a cross-bench, a belligerent opposition, and a virulently anti-Labor press.

    Gillard Labor passed an impressive amount of nation-building legislation.

    No-one was left behind.

    From the most deprived to the most wealthy, everyone was accounted for – and encouraged to do their best for our nation.

    Look what we have now. A wasteland – where the rich are encouraged and the poor are made to feel the brunt. There’s no inclusiveness, just division and hatred.

    And still the Murdoch press soldiers on.

    Why don’t you throw your stinking bile where it belongs?

    I’m beginning to understand why you’re considered a Liberal troll.

  47. kezza2@2538

    Mr Nowicki said Mr McClelland suggested he contacted The Australian newspaper’s Hedley Thomas who was also investigating the case


    Yeah. Well done, McClelland. He who single-handedly (he he he) resurrected the shit against Gillard when SURPRISINGLY she’d actually got a resurgence in the polls.

    Couldn’t have that, could we Ruddista lads and ladettes.

    Had to bring her down again. Had to bring down your own party. Fuck Labor.

    As I said before, Rudd Labor would tear a woman down just as much as they’d punch their kith and kin in a blind alley.

    Rudd was just as much as bleeding sook as Kernohan.

    Didn’t we, oops didn’t Labor, dodge a bullet with Kernohan not gaining pre-selection. Unfortunately the same can’t be said of the destructive Rudd.

    How about dropping your rampant misandry and sticking to the issues?

    You would be on stronger ground.

  48. Mike Smith celebrates the RC hearing by clandestinely recording a conversation with his mum and then linking it. Awkward.

    It tells us that:

    (a) Marco (presumably Bolano) is playing some consultant role to Smith;
    (b) Smith swears a lot;
    (c) he has some fair old visceral hatred;
    (d) he might be just a little bit close to all of this.

    http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2014/06/my-mum-was-with-bob-today-she-speaks-with-us-after-the-royal-commission.html

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