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| Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.
Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.
Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.
The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.
“@Simon_Cullen: The Palmer United Party has confirmed it’ll support the carbon tax repeal legislation so long as power co’s are required to pass on savings.”
Both political RC’s are ridiculous and I hope those lawyers playing the role of Tony’s clowns are being paid well for the taint that something so removed from justice and democracy must leave.
Re Guytaur @2382: “The paid parental leave scheme is not in the design phase its in the crazy inventor’s phase”
Ditto for ‘Direct Action’ and this dodgy ‘Medical Research Fund’. Judging by the contradictory statements from Federal ministers trying to explain last month’s budget, maybe pretty much all of the ‘reforms’ announced in it
Guytaur, Labor is not going to block supply. Simples.
Apart from anything else, supply pays those same public servants and agencies(CSIRO anyone) Abbott’s Tea Party is attacking … Shutting off funding to the government is a Tea Party tactic and Labor rightly rejects it.
Kernahan getting emotional. Bad move.
how many Bob Smiths are there?
MM
I know Labor will not block supply. I was just commenting that now we know why Wilkie is calling for it.
Given some comments I have seem I do understand why you want to repeat that Labor policy.
[Kernahan getting emotional. Bad move.]
That is alright. Laughing is worse.
Telling jokes is a crisis.
Here’s a blast from the past
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/09/20/sure-its-tough-out-there-in-retail-land-but-dont-blame-the-government/?wpmp_switcher=mobile
Mark McInnes (formerly DJs, now Just Jeans) in 2011 blaming the government for a slowdown in consumer sentiment.
I wonder whether he’s regretting egging Hockey with cuts before the budget: http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/retail-boss-mark-mcinnes-blasts-labor-slams-high-wages-20140502-37mi4.html
Strangely enough, I haven’t heard him complaining about the current slump in confidence. I wonder when the Just Group board will wake up to the fact they’ve hired an ideological moron who is incapable of understanding what the best interests of their shareholders are. The fact that this guy is seen as having the vaguest understanding of what a high street retailer needs is baffling.
[“@Simon_Cullen: The Palmer United Party has confirmed it’ll support the carbon tax repeal legislation so long as power co’s are required to pass on savings.”]
Wrong Clive. You should demand that the full $550 continually quoted by Abbott should be returned!
shellbell
🙂
Bill shorten about to be dumped upon
[B.C.
Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 2:07 pm | Permalink
let’s be honest. 12 months ago people would probably have said a primary of 40% for Labor was impossible.]
When was the last time Labor had a 40% pv on Essential? It doesn’t seem all that long ago.
I well recall there was a period when Essential had a tendency to overstate the Labor pv. Even when the major polls had it in the low 30s Essential usually had it about three or four points higher (which was unfortunately balanced out by a Liberal pv which also was three or four points higher than the other polls).
*tears for bob*
in the witness box, as he recalls his his horror at being outwitted – especially after having $6000 only of his claimed $18,000 expenditure for his own re-election.
Sob sob.
[how many Bob Smiths are there?]
As many as necessary, apparently.
House purchased “with union members’ funds”? Who says they were union members’ funds?
This seems to be a common mistake being made: conflating Wilson’s slush fund with union funds.
Egging *on*, not ‘egging’. Though it’s probably just a matter of days before Hockey gets a good egging.
newmatilda @newmatilda 3m
Privatising electricity infrastructure is a big risk for NSW | @beneltham http://goo.gl/lb100d
Kernohan has forgotten he is meant to be dumping on bill shorten, wandered off …..
Boerwar
So you laugh at my suggestion that Abbott was wounded by the misogyny speech and is vengeful.
Very droll, and superficial of you.
So Palmer United given Tony A big kiss on the budget.
“@andrew_lund: Labor going through the possible entitlements Shaw could receive. Being an MP sounds quite lucrative #springst”
When he says he was on Workcover at the start, does this mean workers compensation benefits?
here is NewsLtd headlines for tomorrow
Shorten dumped on now
alleging that Bill Shorten attempted to cover up Wilson/Blewitt scam (after they had resigned) – and then got ostracised by AWU.
victimisation and bullying – and a bashing – allegedly by AWU.
The cross-examination will be difficult because this bloke has a lot to say and then some so keeping him on track will be challenging.
Worth a watch.
I think bill Shorten was a junior AWU staffer at the time of these venets alleged by Kernohan, so its hard to see how he organised all these alleged events
Gave the wrong answer to the dixer about original police statement
So, Kerhahan got brain damage in July 1999.
Should he even be testifying?
Peter Lewis from Essential has just tweeted that their results two party preferred results are now out to 54% to 46% to the ALP.
zoidlord #2421
Clive Palmer stands condemned for foregoing between $24bn-$40bn of revenue out to 2020 due to the repeal of the CEP and paying lip service to pollution/climate change.
Kernohan, even
Michael Smith “encouraged” Kernohan
Essential – ALP primary +1 to 40%, Coalition -1 to 37%, Green -1 to 9%, PUP steady on 6%.
RD
Agreed
Shaw motion now Vic Parliament 24 covering
Gee, Michael Smith lost his job over Kernohan interview
Tin foil hats starting to appear
It is not a commission into 2UE otherwise they could ask why 2UE employed David Oldfield for all those years.
Harry Nowicki has been giving Kernohan money
How will the casual public observer view the inevitable reporting of these allegations ?
[Gee, Michael Smith lost his job over Kernohan interview]
That was known at the time and admitted as such.
Essential leaders ratings = Abbott 35% (approval) 55% (disapproval); Shorten 35%/37%, Preferred PM Shorten 40, Abbott 36.
sprocket_
As Kerhahan is dumping on Bill, is Bill being represented anyone?
at least 2UE had the good sense to sack Alan Jones
This is turning into the Harry Nowicki Royal Commission.
Gee, not everyone gets a Royal Commission to help them research their upcoming book.
Jetstar – Harry Nowicki is a bit el cheapo
[Jetstar – Harry Nowicki is a bit el cheapo
]
At least it wasnt Tiger Airlines
gently, gently