A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.
The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.
Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.
Just Me
[history would be kind to Gillard, and fairly quickly.]
Agree.
Kevin, why did you say budget backlash peaked?
On a different note.
International Youth Silent Film Competition.
Hey! That’s cool. Just mentioned on 7.30 South Australia.
Henry Thong of Glenunga High, wins!
See my niece of the long blond hair in the film. Taken at Glenunga High.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/girl-in-the-camera/5473390
See my niece now.
http://sonnyphotos.com/2014/04/adele-mckeen-img-worldwide-models
Oh yes, and Congratulations Henry.
1252
Zoid the budget backlash probably has peaked.
Just Me:
I’m on record expressing similar views as well.
Reducing CO2:
Its cheaper
Its healthier
Its smarter
#BleedingObviousClimateCampaignLines.
sceptic
Re’ the Spectator article: They’re are lots of nutters out there.
@silmaj/1254
Fairly early to call it, actually it’s quiet dangerous.
For those interested and without Beevor’s book, the picture is online…
zoomster
[Bollocks. At various times here, I have posted in support of you; and at other times, I have posted against you.]
I don’t mind if you disagree with me. And I’ll say so.
[I’m every inch as much a feminist as you are — but feminism is about seeing people as individuals, not slapping labels and stereotypes on them because of their gender.]
No, you’re not.
No, you spend too much time arguing men’s stuff to be much of a feminist at all.
It’s okay to understand why men are why they are, and why they have been that way historically, but to patronise them just the way they did us, is not the same as changing the status quo.
I wouldn’t dream of patronising men. Pretending I thought one thing and saying another.
You seem to think that straddling the fence is the way to go. I don’t. And most kids prefer a straight answer than a wishy-washy on the one hand this, on the other hand that.
1258
If you stay angry and mad for an extended period of time it’s generally not good for your health.
@silmaj/1261
Why bother, when your ignoring the issue?
Posting this again. Deadly serious. A Must Read, so true.
1208 crikey whitey
Looks like a timely moment to throw this on the flames.
YesAllWomen.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/05/28/yesallwomen/
1262
Exactly people’s anger wears off.
WTF didn’t tones get a chance to outshine Obama and tell us about his plans to kan the carbon tax and kkill opposition to his brain farts
Crikey
Nice work!
They’ve got some very talented kids at Glenunga. One of my daughters friends got there and she’s a very talented writer and dramatist.
@silmaj/1264
I’m talking about you, not the public.
The public hasn’t warn it’s anger off, otherwise you don’t see politicians claiming ‘everyone has accepted the budget in my electorate’.
[the budget backlash probably has peaked.]
I don’t think so. That will happen when they have to provide details enough to implement it and the actual effect of whatever they can get implemented.
kezza
[You seem to think that straddling the fence is the way to go. I don’t. And most kids prefer a straight answer than a wishy-washy on the one hand this, on the other hand that.]
Chortle. Given that my biggest fault is that I’m opinionated and outspoken – and thus put people’s backs up – this is just funny.
I’m not sure what the reference to kids is about, but if it’s a slur on my teaching, all I can say is that I have about the best relationships with students (in school and out) of any teacher I know.
1267
Obviously you think human nature doesn’t apply in this case.
The response to a bad budget if the same as the stages of grief; denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.
We are now in the bargaining phase in more ways than one.
@silmaj/1270
This has nothing to do with human nature…. I think someone is in denial.
zoidlord@1252
My aggregate’s basically flat over the past two and a half weeks now at about 54% to ALP. Newspoll and Morgan multi-mode moved back to the Government and the new Morgan phone, albeit off a tiny sample size, is only 53.5 respondent allocated (I make it something like 52.6 by last election prefs). Essential doesn’t follow the birdie so it doesn’t matter which way it moved. I just see nothing in the last few weeks of polling to suggest things have got worse for the Coalition after the initial post-budget backlash. Maybe “plateaued” would be more accurate. 😉
It’s inflected.
1272
You must think I was popping the Moët when the budget came out.
CW – I read that blog the fist time you posted it. It’s a ripper. Thanks for sharing. #yesallwomen
@Kevin/1273
I say that’s more likely.
The Polling is one thing, but biased media is another).
Considering majority of the news we had to rely on sites like The Guardian for example to read up on the nasties in the budget.
@Silmaj/1275
What does that have to do with anything? Now your posting random posts.
[Why budget reforms are now in intensive care
…
Senate estimates hearings have been awash with examples of policy which not even bureaucrats can explain. Long before we get to the unpredictable new Senate, the government is losing the argument.]
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/why_budget_reforms_are_now_in_intensive_j1fK5bsqU7EQNG6UP8kWeI
The Professor comments on being referred to the CMC
[@CliveFPalmer: Deputy Premier @JeffSeeney is just a liar and a cad #polqld #cmc @theqldpremier @PalmerUtdParty @MattWordsworth @LNPQLD @abcnews]
Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer 1m
Deputy Premier @JeffSeeney is just a liar and a cad #polqld #cmc @theqldpremier @PalmerUtdParty @MattWordsworth @LNPQLD @abcnews
1277
The budget hurt everyone. I always knew it would. So when I realized what it did to me, the original anger/ annoyance/ dissapointment has know turned to, it’s time to get on with other things.
Simon Katich and others re Beevor and D-Day
__________________________
I recommend you read his recent book “Paris after the Liberation” written by he and his wife Artmeis Cooper(grand-daughter of a wartime
Churchill Minister..Duff Cooper)
A great story of the weeks after D-Day and the events in Paris, and the Liberation…and the yhear of huinger and turmoil that followed
I find it hard to imagine Paris with much food ,from my experience of that great city,,,but it’s a great read
zoomster
[Chortle. Given that my biggest fault is that I’m opinionated and outspoken – and thus put people’s backs up – this is just funny.
I’m not sure what the reference to kids is about, but if it’s a slur on my teaching, all I can say is that I have about the best relationships with students (in school and out) of any teacher I know.]
Glad you’re having a laugh. And a pity you can’t see that I am of the same variety as you. I don’t give a bleeding stuff about what others think of me. I really don’t care.
But I’m not going to hide behind some sort of sense of civility.
And if my accusation about a boot fit, then wear it.
Reference to children (kids) is to your own, not your students.
There’s no point discussing the role of men and women in society with your own kids, and then not putting your own stamp on it and telling them why.
I know you’re still smarting about my appraisal that if I’d had my druthers then Fran Barlow would be the best teacher, I did’t get to say you’d be a close second.
Still, I understand your angst.
The effects of the budget are yet to be really felt. When the costs on the young and the poorer really start to hit there must be more outrage.
The stories of young homeless, decline in student numbers, increasing costs for basic health and probable economic decline will surely impact.
It may turn on who has power in the MSM, the LNP strength and the lefts’ weakness to date.
If these new solar systems can achieve even half their potential it could mean the eventual end of nuclear and coal fired power stations despite anything that conservative governments to try to stop it. New technologies are the great game changer.
http://themarketeer-raybeatty.blogspot.com.au/
http://www.solarroadways.com/intro.shtml
Apologies if these have been posted before.
@silmaj/1281
So it’s about you? Since when did this country become so selfish? Oh that’s right, the last 20 years.
The budget backlash has probable peaked, but I don’t think that is going to help Abbott much.
thanks debonlay – its on the list.
His Stalingrad book is by far his best IMO.
Re The Budget
__________
Waiting for a taxi today in a shopping centre,I got into conversations with two elderly women ,WHOM I SUSPECT WERE LIBS’
ONE HAD HER TAXI CARD WHICH GIVES HER A CHEAPER FARE….I SAID THAT HOCKEY WANTED TO CUT OUT PENSION CONCESSIONS AND SHE MIGHT YET LOOSE HER CARD
SHE WAS SHOCKED AS WAS HER FRIEND THEY WERE ILL-INFORMED
I FINISHED WITH THE REMARK THAT HOCKEY PREFERRED ALL “OLDIES” DEAD
THAT SHOCKED THEM
GREAT DAYS
1286
Zoid
The budget hurt everyone. I am just one of everyone. I’m not defending it I’ve just moved on as I think you find others will to. Life’s to short.
Suggesting that the immediate reaction to the Budget has peaked is not suggesting it’s going to go away.
There is a LOT of pain to come for a lot of people and you need to be consistent and not blow your wad early… this is a long-game.
Phillip Adams @PhillipAdams_1 1h
Vastly preferable to have Abbott lead the Libs. Turnbull could win the next election.
Expand
kezza
[I don’t give a bleeding stuff about what others think of me. I really don’t care.]
So why the whinge that women here don’t support what you’re saying?
[But I’m not going to hide behind some sort of sense of civility.]
No one is asking that. Your attacks on people are unfair and irrational.
But again, you contradict yourself. Just as you say you don’t care what people think – and then whinge when they don’t think what you want them to – you also accuse people of abusing you. If civility doesn’t matter to you, then that wouldn’t sorry you either.
[Reference to children (kids) is to your own, not your students.]
Same diff. Those would be the kids who point out when I’m being hypocritical, and who involve me in rigorous discussions about a whole variety of issues.
[I know you’re still smarting about my appraisal that if I’d had my druthers then Fran Barlow would be the best teacher, I did’t get to say you’d be a close second. ]
Thank you, but no, that didn’t worry me. I’ve never tried to be anyone’s favorite teacher.
@silmaj/1290
We can’t move on if we getting hurt by the budget, every bit of money helps, and with the rising costs, cutting us the wrong way is not going to help us “move on”.
Telling us to “move on” is like ignoring the problem and putting your head in the sand, just like it did last time, repeating past mistakes.
It’s fine to be a internet-warrior and say move on folks, nothing to see here, but it’s quiet different to real-life.
What’s that old saying that “great people talk about ideas, ordinary people talk about things, small people talk about other people”?
Have those of you who spend your energy bitching about each other on this blog given any thought to how boring and trite it is?
My grandmother had a feud with her sisters, and they used to cut up each other’s reconciliatory letters with scissors, and mail the pieces back. I guess her equivalents here have moved with the times by using the internet.
zoid
[ Since when did this country become so selfish? Oh that’s right, the last 20 years.]
Do you have any actual evidence to support this? I don’t remember the eighties as being a socialist nirvana, but hey, that might be just me.
kezza2@1283
I think you just identified your problem. Lack of civility, and all that it entails.
pedant
Ah, bitching about bitching….
@Zoomster/1296
80’s is more like 30 years ago, just a slight difference there.
1294
I’m not sure I told anyone to move. I just suggested that human nature will move some on . I have to move on because there is a lot to do and staying in one place will mean nothing gets done.