BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor

The latest polling aggregate result inevitably shows Labor’s post-budget surge tapering off a little, but there’s no sign of the Palmer United train losing momentum.

A paucity of new data last week caused Labor’s lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to inflate further off the momentum established by the previous week’s post-budget blowout. It now moderates somewhat with the arrival of new numbers from Newspoll and Morgan, together with the always reliable Essential Research, although the first two recorded only minor changes on their previous polls and Essential actually moved in Labor’s favour. Both major parties are found to have lost ground on the primary vote, although Labor somewhat more so, and Palmer United has once again reached a new high. The biggest gain is for “others”, but it should be noted that this measure amounts to the residue after trend-based determinations are made for the four principal parties, which causes it to be rather volatile.

The 0.6% shift to the Coalition on two-party preferred produces a net change of two seats on the seat projection, with Labor losing one seat each in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, while gaining one in Tasmania on the back of a strong Morgan result. Of note in the state breakdowns are a substantial moderation of the swing in Queensland over the last few weeks, as a flood of bad data for the Coalition from April and early May washes out of the system, and a surge to Labor in South Australia. The latter in particular may well just be a statistical artifact, but it interestingly coincides with trouble for the Liberals at state level.

Newspoll has furnished BludgerTrack with new data for the leadership ratings, but the story here is similar to that on voting intention last week, with the latest shifts driven largely by the trend set in place by the post-budget polling. The changes on approval offer a muted reflection of this week’s more moderate numbers from Newspoll, but the lead to Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has overshot the data points which have set the current trend in place, making it all but certain that it will reduce when the next new numbers are added.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,488 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.4-45.6 to Labor”

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  1. 😆 Sky News coverage, no sighting of Abbott yet, but mentions Abbott is “In attendance” just before saying Putin is also “In attendance” .

  2. kezza – if it were that simple, I would agree with you. But the vast majority of uranium being supplied to India will go to civilian power and medical research. If Australia does not supply it, someone else will. Either way, women will be culturally impoverished, abused and maligned – Australian sanctions will do nothing.

    We currently do not sell uranium to Pakistan nor, as far as I am aware, do we plan to in the near to medium term.

    Equally, many would argue that the only way to bring India into a modern conception of equality, feminism and justice is through economic development and trade. Historically this has tended to be the case – sanctions have never really solved anything in international politics and they always hurt the commonest, poorest people far more than whoever they are supposed to target.

    India’s massive social inequality, poverty and lack of justice, the burden of which unquestionably falls disproportionately on women, will not in any way whatsoever be affected by Australia trading or not trading India uranium. It would be seen as a way of scoring a cheap political point by the Indians and damage our relationship with them. It may be used as an incendiary issue to drum up anti-Australian feelings in the Indian population.

    It certainly won’t stop anyone from being raped.

  3. I don’t think we had any soldiers involved in D Day landings (airforce + navy yes) so WTF is Abbott prancing around doing? Oh, excuse me, a unicorn just ran through my garden.

  4. paaptsef@1206

    A bit, but still managed to correct myself before you had a chance to reflect on me

    If you are referring to the disastrous Gillard Prime Ministership, I just wanted to see the ALP saved from the fate awaiting it under her ‘leadership’. She, of course, clung on until it was too late for any real chance of victory, but much furniture was saved and Labor is in a position to win in 2016.

  5. The Turnbull non-leadership stories just keep coming in the MSM – now from a new angle:

    [Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership denials have the faint whiff of Kevin Rudd about them

    I SUPPORT the leader. I am happy in my role. My chances of being leader again are minuscule.
    These are the points Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been at pains to stress over the past week since his clandestine dinner with Clive Palmer created a political firestorm.

    He may be being completely honest — but the words have a definite ring to them that recalls another famously dumped leader. One Kevin Rudd…

    Here’s a rundown of how Mr Turnbull’s comments compare to Mr Rudd’s… ]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/malcolm-turnbulls-leadership-denials-have-the-faint-whiff-of-kevin-rudd-about-them/story-fncynjr2-1226946059543

  6. [psyclaw
    Posted Friday, June 6, 2014 at 7:50 pm | PERMALINK
    Mezzanine #1165

    Fair comment.

    I think Boerwar’s is touching on a very sensitive issue, that is that there is rape and there is rape+, there is hunger and there is hunger + etc

    Probably be (arguably) more preferable to be raped in suburbia, than raped in war, walk outside and then be bombed.]

    Oh, so it so much worse (arguably) to be raped in war than it is to be raped in peacetime? Is it?

    I have never heard so much shit.

    And it is so much worse (arguably) to be hungry in war than it is to be hungry in peacetime?

    There’s only so much shit anyone can take in one dose.

    Why don’t you just masticate and swallow instead of vomiting your lack over everybody?

  7. Yes maybe Bemused but that only counts if you put leaders before results and right now you and the ultimately successful alternative are crapped out

  8. MH
    We had 1100 die there, they just were not in Australian units, but rather were scattered throughout. For instance we had pilots in the RAF flying during the invasion.

  9. The Media just love leadershit, it saves them from having to think too much and absorb the nasty data stuff.

    So a whiff of a Chinese stir fry with a pinch of Bolt is irresistible, especially with Abbott out of the country.

    Imagine the long weekend list of Dames and Knights, no wonder Tony is miles away.

  10. More fun in Queensland:

    [A FORMER Queensland Liberal leader has slammed the state treasurer for likening a solar bonus scheme to middle-class welfare.

    Brisbane talkback radio went into a frenzy on Friday after Treasurer Tim Nicholls told parliament the former Labor government’s feed-in tariff scheme was designed for “champagne sippers and the latte set”.

    Bruce Flegg, a former state Liberal leader who Mr Nicholls challenged in 2007, took to Twitter to condemn those comments.

    “People who installed solar panels were also urged and incentivised to do so by the then govt and should not be criticised for having done so,” he tweeted on Friday.]

    tp://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/i-never-received-solar-subsidy-newman/story-e6frfku9-1226945570008

  11. Sorry. Should have been a bit more clear. We were talking about civilians, not soldiers.

    Australians send soldiers somewhere else for their wars never dreaming that one day a war will come ashore, never dreaming of what that will mean.

    In peace this prism bastardises the remembrance of war, the treatment of soldiers, alive and dead, and war policy.

    We have Sheridan casually discussing the likelihood that the current asian sabre rattling probably does not mean war. As easy as that. We have Abbott playing silly buggers, as if all this means nothing more than Abbott putting on a bomb clearance suit for a stunt, or mounting a machine and firing fifty cal off into the Afghanistan desert while muttering shit happens.

    In war, the soldiers die or get physically wounded. A very high proportion of the survivors come back pyschologically wounded.

    It is the civilians who have no idea who think of it as drama, never dreaming of the reality.

    And here I should clarify. There are civilians who become collateral damage through the behaviour of returned soldiers.

    And even so, they can but dance to an echo of the distant horror because they have no idea.

  12. I know I am not allowed to say anything on this blog to defend PMJG, so I will leave you all to it. It is quite a achievement: preventing a woman from defending another woman who is attacked.

  13. [1186
    kezza2

    The other day I mentioned about two young girls who were raped and hung by their rapists.

    I asked if we could perhaps impose sanctions on that country.]

    k2, yesterday I happened to be talking to a young woman I know. She is from Amritsar and is now studying here. She and her husband, who is also from Amritsar, are Sikh. I know them through a connection from work. I asked her about the situation of women in India, from her point of view and experience.

    She said the situation of women varied a lot, depending on their location and the local culture. She said that in her community women were valued, well-educated and well-respected. In her own family (including her cousins), of the 9 people in her generation, 7 were female. All were educated. All were either employed or studying and of the 5 old enough to marry so far only 2 had decided to do so. She has a Masters Degree in political science from an Indian university. Her husband also has a degree, though I’m not sure in which discipline he is qualified.

    She said the places in India with a reputation for ill-treating women included Uttar Pradesh and, in particular, Rajasthan, where women were still obliged to wear traditional dress, to cover their faces in public, to accept arranged marriages an had few chances to obtain an education of improve their station in life.

    She also insisted on the point that it would be a mistake to judge all India on the basis of reports in the media – that India is very large and complex. As a Sikh, she is far more concerned about Hindu domination and, as a relatively young person, is affected by the problems of corruption that attend so much of everyday life.

  14. teh_drewski

    [kezza – if it were that simple, I would agree with you. But the vast majority of uranium being supplied to India will go to civilian power and medical research]

    Nobody said it was simple.

    But, what would be simple was denying India our uranium unless they cleaned up their act regarding the way women are treated.

    Do you believe for a moment that Australian uranium is not used for nuclear weapons? Oh, you can tell yourself over and over again, that ours is just for electricity.

    Still. So fucking what.

    Do we care if women in India are raped, or gang-raped, or raped with a pipe?

    According to Boerwar, if it’s not a war, then it’s not a bad rape. And psyclaw agrees.

    According to psyclaw there is rape, and there’s rape plus.

    To a bloke there’s a no difference.

    And to a woman it’s the same. In both ways they’re penetrated by something they didn’t want in their body.

    Yeah, I’d like to have a bloke experience the difference between say a penis up his arse, or a broomstick, or a bottle, against his wishes.

    And then let him tell me there was difference between rape in war and rape in peacetime.

  15. briefly

    A real problem is the caste system . That seems to be the base camp of such horrific treatment. I remember my OMGment at primary school being told about the Indian caste system.

  16. Of course I care. But I see nothing to indicate that banning uranium sales will make one iota of difference. Not directly, not indirectly.

  17. The funniest story about D-Day is that the allies captured five KOREAN soldiers. They were conscripted by the japanese to fight the Russians, got captured by the Russians and forced to fight for them, then got captured by the germans and forced to fight for them. I can only assume that their hearts weren’t in it.

  18. Puffy:

    Gillard was the best PM we’ve had in ages. The most effective at translating her party’s agenda into legislation, and the most human.

    Given the stuff that gets commented on here about a whole variety of topics, I don’t know why you’d think you couldn’t express a view about former Oz PMs.

  19. [1226
    poroti
    briefly

    A real problem is the caste system . That seems to be the base camp of such horrific treatment. I remember my OMGment at primary school being told about the Indian caste system.]

    Sure, it is grotesque. I’m sure there are many who strive for change, but it must be very difficult in practice…

  20. I think it’s possible to have a great deal of admiration of Gillard as a leader whilst also realising that she was leading Labor to electoral disaster, though not through any great fault of her own.

    But she was never, ever going to get a clean run at the election. Completely unfair, but still reality.

  21. [1230
    confessions

    Puffy:

    Gillard was the best PM we’ve had in ages. The most effective at translating her party’s agenda into legislation, and the most human.]

    She was rejected at the time, but will be much admired before long. Already comparisons with Abbott, Rudd and Howard are starting to favour Gillard…

  22. briefly
    [She said the places in India with a reputation for ill-treating women included Uttar Pradesh and, in particular, Rajasthan, where women were still obliged to wear traditional dress, to cover their faces in public, to accept arranged marriages an had few chances to obtain an education of improve their station in life.

    She also insisted on the point that it would be a mistake to judge all India on the basis of reports in the media – that India is very large and complex. As a Sikh, she is far more concerned about Hindu domination and, as a relatively young person, is affected by the problems of corruption that attend so much of everyday life.]

    Huh.

    As if I’d judge all strata of Indian society on a few situations.

    How about you ask your Indian friend if it’s okay for women of lower SES (or low caste) if she cares if all women are treated that way?

    I have enough trouble accepting the way our women speak about females they consider beneath them, without taking onboard a whole culture that derides women.

    Even on here, if I speak about the way women are treated, the women on here are silent. The men either ignore me, or deride me.

    Call me a feminist. Yet do nothing to understand why I would be angry about the rape of women, of girls. Of boys.

    Just so long as we preserve the status quo. That men can get away with sexually hurting girls and boys (and not just especially those of the cloth) as long as women want to preserve the family.

    We need to bust open the sexual abuse of kids within families, by their own siblings and other adults, not just the shit that happens in religious situations.

  23. k17

    His name was Yang Kyoungjong. One of the many sad stories of the war. Beevor opened with it in his book summarising WW2.

  24. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@1229

    The funniest story about D-Day is that the allies captured five KOREAN soldiers. They were conscripted by the japanese to fight the Russians, got captured by the Russians and forced to fight for them, then got captured by the germans and forced to fight for them. I can only assume that their hearts weren’t in it.

    FIVE of them?

    I had previously heard the story of one such Korean but never that there were more.

    A truly incredible story.

  25. briefly:

    Yeah, I agree.

    Btw, how are you loving ‘winter’ so far? Today was like a spring day down here.

  26. kezza

    [Even on here, if I speak about the way women are treated, the women on here are silent]

    Bollocks. At various times here, I have posted in support of you; and at other times, I have posted against you.

    However, you seem to think that the way to win hearts and minds here is to insult as many people as you can, and then sulk when people insult you back.

    A more measured, reasonable approach to discussions would mean that your points were considered on their merits. Getting people’s backs up simply makes them defensive; they focus on your approach rather than your message.

    I’m every inch as much a feminist as you are — but feminism is about seeing people as individuals, not slapping labels and stereotypes on them because of their gender.

  27. “Yang remains perhaps the most striking illustration of the helplessness of most ordinary mortals in the face of overwhelming historical forces”. Antony Beevor
    I am looking at a picture of Yang now and quite overcome at the contrast of history and human. One persons story of survival, 60million deaths.

  28. [1235
    briefly

    {Gillard} was rejected at the time, but will be much admired before long. Already comparisons with Abbott, Rudd and Howard are starting to favour Gillard…]

    Quite a few, including me, said before the election that history would be kind to Gillard, and fairly quickly.

  29. Glenn Druery
    Abbott’s right wing sleeper?… Will give Tony full support!

    “LDP’s NSW Senate candidate Mr Glenn Druery says it is becoming obvious that the Labor dog is being wagged by its Green tail”.(2010)

    SMH today..
    Mr Druery will work alongside Motoring Enthusiast party founder Keith Littler but is likely to take a lead role in negotiating with the Abbott government on behalf of Mr Muir.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/preference-whisperer-glenn-druery-set-to-join-ricky-muirs-team-as-senior-adviser-20140606-39o5u.html#ixzz33r4fxMLI

    And if the Spectator supports LDP ( & Muir by default ) you know he is a raving lunatic!

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/australia-features/9029251/in-praise-of-the-liberal-democrats/

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