Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. Boerwar

    Glad to be of assistance re shemozzle in Victoria, now working on Federal sphere by staying over here 😀

    I am nor sure what happened to my post re

    CTAR1 look afteryourself won’t you?

  6. This week the business lobby groups have blamed “sluggish retail figures and lower consumer confidence” on the warm weather. Now they’re bleating like stuck sheep about the 50 cents/hour minimum wage increase in order to pretend that Abbott, Hockey and Cormann’s deficit crisis scaremongering, their constant talking down our economy as “Labor’s mess” and their Frankenstein’s monster of a budget have nothing whatsoever to do with the Thatcherite Trough of Despond they’ve been dragging our economy into.

  8. BK,
    If still here, another big tip of the old cap for your Dawn Patrols and going above and beyond the call of duty with reporting to PBers on QT, Q & A and Insiders!

  10. Whenever there’s a wage rise, however small, they run the file tapes of doom and gloom. They just change the puppets who are “speaking”.

  13. CTAR1

    Good on you, only burn the candle one end???

    Poroti

    No I havn’t would have to carry me around, or might fix me?????

  15. [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 5:37 pm | Permalink

    mari – Doing my best.
    ]

    ——————————————————-

    A man and a woman were waiting at the hospital donation center.

    Man: “What are you doing here today?”

    Woman: “Oh, I’m here to donate some blood. They’re going to give me $5 for it.”

    Man: “Hmm, that’s interesting. I’m here to donate sperm, myself. But they pay me $25.”

    The woman looked thoughtful for a moment and they chatted some more before going their separate ways.

    Several months later, the same man and woman meet again in the donation center.

    Man: “Oh, hi there! Here to donate blood again?”

    Woman: [shaking her head with mouth closed] “Unh unh.”

  16. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    AEU ‏@AEUfederal 16m

    Senate Estimates makes it clear that Federal Ed Dept has done NO modelling on effect of Gonski cuts on outcomes for students and schools.

  17. BK

    Your “job” is getting bigger, too. More publications as well as more political pieces from “hard-working journos”. Amazing how some of them have found their voices when it’s too bloody late to affect the election.

    Thank you. My PB morning doesn’t start until you are on deck.
    Think of yourself as the dawn chorus 😀

  19. lizzie

    As Stan Grant just said on Sky about it. Executive salaries are rising 70 times faster so why is that not a problem.

  20. BK,

    If it’s any consolation, OH and I are enjoying far higher spirits thanks to reading your lucid reports and droll quips rather than watching any of those psychodramas (emphasis on the “psycho”)! 🙂

  26. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Jonathan Swan ‏@jonathanvswan 15m

    Martin Parkinson confirms he still believes carbon tax and resources rent tax are good policies.

    Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Shane Wright ‏@swrightwestoz 15m

    Very model of public service objectivity. Martin Parkinson says no change in his views on resource rent tax/price on carbon…

    Liberals won’t like this…

    Retweeted by Greens
    Rachel Siewert ‏@SenatorSiewert 9m

    Single parents could lose more than $2000/yr from changes to FTB A&B + loses from Single P payment + edu supp cut #estimates #bustthebudget

    *so much for “Fair budget”.

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    My phone is going off and I’ve been otherwise busy – what did the Qld gov just announce regarding union campaign laws?

  27. Atticus
    Yes, it takes a while to put together as I need to read the articles in order to characterise them.
    But I would have read them anyway, so the net additional effort isn’t that great.
    But I have come to accept it as a sort of respomsibility now.

  32. BK,

    In all seriousness, this “responsibility” is one that you are fulfilling consistently at a level of excellence which makes some of the professional news compilations look urine-weak.

    This is why myself and so many other PBer’s frequently express how highly your Homeric efforts are valued.

  33. The Coalition can’t justify cutting the Federal Health and Education Departments if they’re going to go around being useful, producing reports, providing analysis and performing modeling.

    So of course the Government hasn’t asked them to do anything!

  34. How informed are we da electorate ? Lowy Institute finds that a whole 30% of Australian’s they polled think Indonesia is a democracy. Apparently stereotypes are the problem .Hmmm now where would people get that from I wonder ?

  39. I know I am being cynical but it just occurred to me that maybe the PM’s plane might have been delayed by all the tradesmen who service the planes and are at threat of losing the jobs may have got their revenge.

  40. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 16m

    In good news, now that these nonsensical Qld union campaign laws are being repealed in an embarrassing backflip, I can start blogging again

    Simon Cullen ‏@Simon_Cullen 12m

    ABC’s Mark Simkin (who’s not on Twitter) says senior Libs are boasting they “played the Nats” to get the fuel excise increase in the budget

  42. Zoid

    Just heard that as well – I thought they were in coalition.

    Seems not to be the case in every instance that doesn’t serve the Libs.

  46. From the link posted above re fuel:

    [They are boasting it was a tactic to “play the Nats”; the rebate was put on the agenda and deliberately leaked to inflame the Nationals so the party would support the higher fuel excise as the lesser of two evils.

    “[Changing the rebate] was never the plan,” one senior source declared. “Gina and Twiggy would’ve come after us” – a reference to two of Australia’s richest miners, Gina Rinehart and Andrew Forrest.]

    There you have it – Gina and Andrew are now running the country who would have thought it!

  48. So the Libs played the Nationals. The big question is why are senior Liberals willing to say this at all? What is the strategy?

    [The Cabinet and razor gang processes are notoriously difficult to penetrate, but the very fact senior Liberals are willing to say the sort of things they’re saying – effectively rubbing the Nationals’ noses in diesel – will only add fuel to this fire.]

  50. victoria

    When I watched (as much as I could bear of) QT today, my overwhelming reaction was that the Libs are suffering from ideological triumphalism and are blind to the feelings of others.

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