Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Elephant in the room:

    [ABC Q&A @QandA · 1h
    In the #QandA audience tonight: COALITION 42%, ALP 34%, GREENS 12%.]

    When will Qanda start stacking its audience on current polling lines?

  2. I’m a bit confused.

    Labor is down 1%, Greens are up 1%, but the 2PP increases 1% to the Coalition?

    How does that work?

  3. Bernardi has been fine. Completely disagree with everything he says, but he’s at least calm and diligent.

    However I’m fairly certain that Rowan Dean would have few mates.

  4. E

    Who’s ‘right’?

    Bernardi is a religious kook who is not even part of the Government. He just sits around waiting for doG to tell him what to say.

    Dean must get a call from Credlin to tell HIM what to say.

  5. [ You guys don’t seem to like it the other way around much! ]

    The problem is when the right wingers are idiot denialist morons who get all rude and shouty. Your type of people, you know, obnoxious dimwits telling lies.

  6. [Henry
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:32 pm | PERMALINK
    Former communists make the most ardent capitalists.]

    They know the reality of the magic pudding economics many here propound.

  7. Boerwar

    Labor need to be as shrill and unreasonable as the Libs are. They hammer on their talking points every minute of every interview for months and years.

    It needs to be relentless.

  8. Krauss was good value when he got to comment. Catherine King did pretty well i thought. Did not have the barely restrained angry thing going that Bernardi did. Rowan Dean is just an obnoxious wanker spouting the lines aggressively. And Lucy Turnbull was a waste of space.

  9. [They know the reality of the magic pudding economics many here propound.]

    Could not agree more. These are the ones who think that the environment is infinite resource and infinite sump type magic pudding.

    How dumb is that?

  10. meher baba

    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    AA@1631: it’s crazy crap whoever says it, be that Joh Bjelke, Peter Beattie, Bob Katter, Kevin Rudd, Barnaby Joyce, Tony Abbott or whoever.

    I can’t think of a better way to waste taxpayers’ money than on the Northern Myth. From Port Essington to the Ord River to the Alice to Darwin railway. Waste, waste, waste.

    Still waiting for dual carriageway bridges over a LOT of the rivers. Roads still impassable when it rains. It will cost billions upon billions. But then as Tony has shown with so many other decisions – What Gina wants, Gina gets!!.

    Best thing that happened was Federal Labor, a significant number of bridges got upgraded. Nothing got done under Howard.

  11. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 10:34 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor has lost its main message about the budget… the message that resonates… this budget is unfair

    People might have short memories, but not THAT short. It’s only been a couple of weeks since the budget.

  12. rb

    Because the thing that really upset Australian people (apart from realizing that they had been comprehensively dudded by the best liar for decades) was not that a bit of belt tightening was needed, but that those least able to bear the belt tightening got to do most of it.

  13. Well I’ve never encountered Rowan Dean before, but still, his presence was a total troll effort by Qanda IMO.

    And so it doesn’t matter what he says about things. The main message for Labor is that the budget fails because it is unfair. The reason coalition policy fails is because it disproportionately benefits high income households and disadvantages low income households.

  14. gloryconsequence @56

    It’s become common practice with the conservatives… result of focus group research & lots of coaching ….
    Look at Pyne & Bishop for change . … Malcolm is the only one ( in Lib ) who has genuine demeanour & respect for other point if view

  15. [ Now youse can see why Rowan Dean was there. To make Bernardi look relatively not so god-awful. ]


    [ Labor need to be as shrill and unreasonable as the Libs are. ]

    Nope, just keep it real and reasonable while the right wingers tie themselves in knots telling people lies and getting things wrong.

    Then block everything in the Senate and watch the whingers squeal like pigs.

  16. King had several opportunities to remind a large audience that this was an unfair budget. And she did not do so.

  17. [They hammer on their talking points every minute of every interview for months and years.]

    Yes, that the Liberals, as evidenced by their policies are placing the interests of high income earners well ahead of the interests of everyone else.

  18. Catherine King was good on QandA. She got the point across that Medicare is not free.

    Amongst others. Also some politicians may think its smart to talk over others but the audience hates it.

    Just look at the reaction to last week when debate happened with hardly any talking over each other.

  19. Ok, I understand your comment now BW. I don’t watch Q&a.

    Shorten made those points brilliantly in his reply. The questions in today’s QT were along those lines and I see Swan had an article in today’s Guardian.

  20. [King had several opportunities to remind a large audience that this was an unfair budget. And she did not do so.]

    A fair number of her responses were talked over by Bernardi and that Dean character.

    If anyone is in any doubt about how today’s Liberal party view the position of professional women in Australian society, a video of tonight’s Qanda is an exercise in gender politics.

  21. BW

    Totally disagree with you. King mentioned priorities not just with chaplains.

    By making points assertively not by yelling she was more convincing

  22. Borewar

    Repeating the obvious for the sake of repartition is a waste of time & an insult to the audience.
    Tonight was a total waste of time with Tony Jones useless hands off the wheel approach.
    ABC should sack him & save the money

  23. ModLib

    I couldn’t reply at the weekend but I did read the utter crap you wrote trying to defend the higher education budget aspects.

    I thought it was quite disgraceful and demeaned you.

    Your logic was way off beam and all you had to offer were shallow platitudes and simplicitudes.

  24. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 14s

    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (+1) ALP 54 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 18s

    #Newspoll Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (0) ALP 37 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) #auspol

  25. So Newspoll is essentially status quo, well within MOE.
    Everybody – COALition, ALP, Greens, Others inc PUP – is within 1 point of where they were last time. Neither here nor there.

    Personal ratings will be interesting.

  26. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 35s

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 33 (+3) Disapprove 59 (-1) #auspol

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 15s

    #Newspoll Shorten: Approve 38 (-4) Disapprove 43 (+4) #auspol

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