Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

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  2. AbsoluteTwaddle

    [Fran He called abortion a ‘cheap’ alternative to contraception? What?]

    My apologies … I quoted with inadequate care. I was thinking of cheap in a metaphoric sense, but to be scrupulous he said:

    [Abortion is the easy way out. It’s hardly surprising that people should choose the most convenient exit from awkward situations.]

    And:

    [The problem with the Australian practice of abortion is that an objectively grave matter has been reduced to a question of the mother’s convenience.]

    That was what I was recalling, but I was mistaken about the precise words.

  3. [I am on fire, but am trying to douse the flames with red wine.]

    BB – just don’t try it with whisky

  5. Evenin’ all

    I’m guessing that Newspoll will be slightly better for the Libs this week, on the grounds that the majority of voters are still prepared to give them a go and want them to succeed (as do I: I don’t want to live in a country that is as badly governed over the next 2 1/4 years as it has been over the last nine months!)

    But I reckon the last few weeks will have caused the swinging voters (and, for that matter, some of the rusted-on Libs) to lose their confidence in the government. It is now clear for all to see that Abbott is not the Howard Mk 2 that they so wanted him to be. I don’t think the Government can hope to win this confidence back: the best they can do now is to try to remind voters of how dreadful Rudd-Gillard was. Come next election, it might work. But, first, they’ve got to start looking like a government again. That won’t be easy.

  6. meher,

    Sure, AAA ratings, low inflation, low unemployment, growth in the economy and low debt levels.

    It was all so so dreadful!

  7. [Fran He called abortion a ‘cheap’ alternative to contraception? What?

    My apologies … I quoted with inadequate care. I was thinking of cheap in a metaphoric sense, but to be scrupulous he said:

    Abortion is the easy way out. It’s hardly surprising that people should choose the most convenient exit from awkward situations.]

    I think abbott’s correct quote is even more damning. Of course, running away and getting your girlfriend to put ‘your’ kid up for adoption was so much harder for him (& I’ll bet he gave his ex a good talking to about having to have the baby as he ran – probably an extension of the talk he gave her about why he wasn’t prepared to use a franga). I’m sure his ex-girl friend was not at all emotionally scarred for the rest of her life by being forced into this situation, whilst abbott would have been happy and un-scarred that she didn’t take ‘the easy way’ out.

  9. GG@1606. If it was so good, why didn’t people vote for more of it.?

    Rudd’s failure to deliver on climate change, pink batts, abandonment of the Pacific Solution bringing back the boats, deposing a first term PM, moving forward, the real Julia, there’ll be no carbon tax/yes it’s a carbon tax, leadership instability, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, more leadership instability, Ruddstoration, crazy crap about developing northern Australia, etc, etc

    Seriously, it wasn’t that great was it?

  10. And free Doctor visits, expectation of retiring at 67, (relatively) inexpensive tertiary studies, income support for young people pushed out of the job market…

  11. meher,

    Despite all that the Government functioned as opposed to this current bunch of amateurs that seem determined to drive the economy off a cliff.

    Nine months of Tony and what do we get?
    A little bit older and deeper in debt!

  12. [1605
    meher baba

    It is now clear for all to see that Abbott is not the Howard Mk 2 that they so wanted him to be.]

    Well that is open to question. Howard will be remembered for Work Choices and for buggering up the budget. In each case, the refrain should be…”Incomes will always be lower under a Liberal Government”.

    Abbott is trying to out-do Howard – to deliver even lower incomes, more insecurity and greater fears. He’s a true Liberal PM is Tony Abbott.

  13. Meher baba

    [I’m guessing that Newspoll will be slightly better for the Libs this week, on the grounds that the majority of voters are still prepared to give them a go and want them to succeed (as do I: I don’t want to live in a country that is as badly governed over the next 2 1/4 years as it has been over the last nine months!)]

    Who says we have to? A new election can be called. A new cabinet could be selected. I’m for this regime continuing to show us all of its A-grade material for as long as it takes to force at least one of these results.

  14. Turns out there is actually a scientific word for Abbott, Pyne, Morrison, Abetz, Joyce, Bolt, G Henderson et al.

    [Science Facts ‏@Science_Factoid 33m
    “Backpfeifengesicht” is a German word for a face that badly needs a punch.    ]

    😆

  15. Steve777@1610

    As I see it now, most of that stuff isn’t going to get through the Senate, so it might not end up being the big negative for the Libs that you and so many other posters on here are hoping for.

    The swinging voters who I know are atill very dark on Labor because of all the Rudd-Gillard shenanigans and also because they believe Gillard lied and Labor stuffed up the economy.

    I reckon they’ll come back to the Libs at election time if the Libs can get their act together.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think that this is a very big “if”.

  20. 1600 Bushfire Bill

    [Just as a matter of interest… who’s up for dipping the toe in the icy waters and actually BUYING a Fairfax rag tomorrow?]

    I’ll have one in the lunchroom tomorrow. Why do you ask?

  21. The only come back Abbott will be doing in the near future is from his overseas trip.

    More’s the pity.

  22. Dan Gulberry

    Long been my favourite word. Especially in sentences that contain the words “Christopher Pyne” .

  23. @1615
    Well, more’s the pity if swinging voters can’t see, or be made to see (courtesy of appropriate and oft repeated rhetoric from the opposition) the nature of the current unprecedented and brutal attack on egalitarian Australia.

  26. ‘I don’t generally allow it to be asserted that specific individuals “badly need a punch”’ – are you implying that you might make an exception in this case, William?

  27. Meher Baba @1615: at least the public should know what the Liberals actually wanted to do. And no sensible person should believe any promises made by this Government. These two truths should be at the heart of Labor’s campaign next time.

    On the other hand, Rudd/Gillard will be ancient history and not a big disadvantage if there are leadership tensions in the Government. Abbott’s lies vastly outnumber the ‘No carbon tax’ canard. And labor needs to be proud of its AAA-rated economic record. Call bullshit every time ‘debt and deficit disaster ‘ is mentioned, not try to disown their record.

  28. Correction:

    [Turns out there is actually a scientific word for unspecified members of the Liberal Party, National Party and Newscorp.

    Science Facts ‏@Science_Factoid 33m
    “Backpfeifengesicht” is a German word for a face that badly needs a punch.

    😆 ]

    😉

  30. Dont forget according to Abbot we need a man-with-a-plan……to:

    Be the worst PM in history?
    Damage the AU economy?
    Ensure the liberal party dont win the next election?

    He didnt go as far as clarifying which plan!!

  31. There is a windstorm of whispers doing the restaurant rounds in Canberra that Credlin has abdicated… uh, no, wait…

  32. , crazy crap about developing northern Australia, etc, etc

    What is it about developing the North that when Rudd said it, it got labeled “crazy crap” and yet Abbott was/is saying almost the same thing as Gina’s mouth piece and no-one thinks its crazy…

  34. [ I don’t generally allow it to be asserted that specific individuals “badly need a punch”. ]

    But there are times when one has to make allowances……….. 😉

  35. Media Watch tonight

    Is Paul Barry hinting that he might get the “Cowley Tapes” doing the dump on Rupert?

  40. poroti,

    [ William Bowe

    Apparently it is more correctly translated as a “slap” . ]

    I reckon regular “turkey slaps” from the big swinging dicks might straighten him out at least a little bit! 😉

  41. How on earth is Tony Jones going to fill his audience with Liberal supporters these days? Does he have a cloning lab out the back?

  46. And in 2016, when anyone mentions boats, Labor should ask “do you want to keep Medicare? Do your kids want to go to uni? Do you? Do you want to work till you’re 70? Do you think you or a close family member will ever be chronically ill or disabled? Are any now? What if you or your family members lose their jobs? Do you believe that there should be a minimum wage? Did you that trust big business has your best interests at heart?

    The list is endless. Boats are and always have been a 9th order issue – tricky, with no easy moral solutions but something adults in charge can deal with. Labor should call racist dog-whistling for what it is.

  50. p
    Laurence asked him what the chaplains are supposed to do if they are not allowed to counsel or to prosletyse.

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