Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

Comments Page 31 of 35
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  1. Bolt has been useful to Murdoch when running anti-Labor articles; now that he is contributing to Liberal destabilisation he may no longer be an asset to the old man:

    [In an interview to be aired on 7.30 tonight, Bolt said Mr Turnbull’s “nasty” and “amazingly abusive”, “over the top” attack on him proved he was right to question the Communications Minister’s leadership ambitions.

    “This was not a story until Malcolm Turnbull chose to make it so today with his amazingly abusive attack,” Bolt told Sabra Lane in the interview, to be aired tonight.

    “Malcolm Turnbull could have chosen not to say anything about my article, the fact that he did shows he wants this story to run and that just destabilises Tony Abbott.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-02/turnbull-rebukes-unhinged-bolt-over-leadership-speculation/5493684

  4. One think is for sure; if the Liberal hard right is destoyed before the next election and Turnbull gets up; Turnbull isn’t going to owe Bolt anything.

  7. My right-wing populist mate won’t criticise the government. He just says that Abbott isn’t selling the message very well. And the message is that we cannot afford to keep paying massive interest on overseas loans.

  8. Confessions @1494

    The YouTube video is of Abbott’s D-Day gaffe which his office would presumably prefer no-one had seen. It’s not helping him.

  10. [Victorian Nationals MP Peter Crisp has escaped conviction on firearm charges in a NSW court, sparing the Napthine government a potential by-election.

    But the Mildura MP was put on a 12-month good behaviour bond for failing to stop the theft of a gun from his NSW farm.

    Crisp, 60, was placed on the bond without conviction for failing to prevent the theft or loss of a prohibited firearm.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/24072458/victorian-mp-avoids-firearm-conviction/

    I’m sure the Napthine govt is breathing a sigh of relief that it doesn’t have to endure the drama that would’ve ensued if he’d been convicted and consequently jailed.

  11. @1507

    He’s ignorant though, you don’t need attack on social services to archive that goal.

    This is ideology attack.

  12. John Oliver’s show is my favourite running at the moment. His segment on the coca-cola vs POM wonderful dispute was absolutely brilliant.

  13. [The YouTube video is of Abbott’s D-Day gaffe which his office would presumably prefer no-one had seen.]

    Babe, the gaffe has been all over social media for the last 24 hrs and has made it into the msm reportage today. It has been seen already, despite the Liberals’ poor social media skills.

    Personally I thought the mocking responses I saw earlier on twitter to be the most effective rather than simply linking to the original video. But each to their own.

  14. World Cup corruption ( as if it’s a surprise).
    Now that the FBI is investigating, what happens if they find bid process was corrupt.. does that stop US companies … Coca Cola & Nike ect from being involved?
    Would that force FIFA to reopen the bidding & give it to the USA?
    Does anyone care anyway??

  15. confessions,

    I was not helping Abbott or the LNP out at all. i posted it on my channel in case the official one was ripped down, just like the original transcript was.

    If you read the description I put under the video, that would’ve been painfully obvious as it was to the (more than) 3,300 viewers it has received.

    Also read the comments left by others, who seem to have understood my reasoning and have left 100% negative comments about Abbott’s shameful stunt.

    So far, you are the only person who has failed to get their head around why I did it.

  16. Hello again. Apologies if someone else has already posted this, but I find it quite damning. There was no modelling of the cost to hospital casualty wards of the medicare co-payment! The saving Hockey claimed is BE. He is just shifting costs to the states, and not counting them.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/02/effect-of-co-payment-on-hospitals-and-medicine-access-has-not-been-assessed

    I thought Hockey had a little more integrity than Abbott. I was wrong. Good evening all.

  18. [“This was not a story until Malcolm Turnbull chose to make it so today with his amazingly abusive attack,” Bolt told Sabra Lane in the interview, to be aired tonight.]

    [“Malcolm Turnbull could have chosen not to say anything about my article, the fact that he did shows he wants this story to run and that just destabilises Tony Abbott.]

    I say what?

    Does this babble make any sense?

    FMD! Not defending Turnbull but if he had said nothing, Bolt would have said his silence was confirmation.

  21. Dan G:

    Ohhhkaaaay. Got it, however misguided your intentions might be.

    But seriously, I’m sure Team Abbott don’t see any problems with linking carbon pricing with veterans issues. I’m betting however that they are loving the efforts of their opponents to spread Abbott’s youtube far and wide to a wider audience.

  23. Dan Gulberry

    That John Oliver clip is going OFF! From 4:04pm local time to 4:34 15,000 views .Next 30 min 19,000 views . Just timed 5:10 to 5:20 , 7,720 views. A rate of 46,000 an hour.

  26. Malcolm for PM!

    72% of SMH online readers that can be bothered to vote ( or love a good stir ) support Malcolm to lead the Liberal Party…..

  28. To those of you who can’t be bothered following the link: Fairfax is axing its Nielsen polls. However:

    [“We are currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach,” Williams said.]

    My tip: they’ll be moving to a cheaper automated phone pollster.

  29. Wow, one of the bigger poll votes on SMH I have seen in a while:

    Poll: Who do you think should lead the Liberals?

    Tony Abbott

    8%
    Malcolm Turnbull

    72%
    Joe Hockey

    6%
    Julie Bishop

    1%
    Someone else

    13%

    Total votes: 21984

    21k!

  33. [confessions
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK
    Dan G:

    Ohhhkaaaay. Got it, however misguided your intentions might be.

    But seriously, I’m sure Team Abbott don’t see any problems with linking carbon pricing with veterans issues. I’m betting however that they are loving the efforts of their opponents to spread Abbott’s youtube far and wide to a wider audience.]

    One issue is that the PM’s office tried to take down the video last night when they discovered that it was being mocked. Twitter records that the links to the video and the written text of what he said were broken. So they were apparently embarrassed over what Abbott said.

  34. [That John Oliver clip is going OFF]

    I’ve had 25 likes on Facebook so far. Expect that to increase as the evening wears on and my friends get over their public holiday comedown/dinner/bath the kids/put kids to bed and settle in to shoot the shit on Fb. 🙂

  35. I know! Any guesses on how they might “strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach” ???

  36. Yep…

    [“Malcolm Turnbull could have chosen not to say anything about my article, the fact that he did shows he wants this story to run and that just destabilises Tony Abbott.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-02/turnbull-rebukes-unhinged-bolt-over-leadership-speculation/5493684 ]

    Malcolm Turnbull should shut up and take his Bolt medicine like a man.

    Bolt Has Spoken.

    Goose. He makes a big deal about Leadershit, and then blames anyone but himself.

    What a girly man.

  38. the photo from today’s parliament is classic – look at abbott’s face
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-bolt-is-undermining-malcolm-turnbull-for-undermining-tony-abbott-got-it-20140602-39eky.html#poll

    and the readers poll – now with over 22,000 votes has turnbull on 72% to abbott’s 8%.

    a summary from the Boss
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5RnDJ1pyCM&feature=kp

    – I think this is the tune going through abbott’s mind as he sits there in that photo.

  41. Consumer Groups ignored – again:
    http://delimiter.com.au/2014/06/02/consumer-groups-excluded-piracy-talks/

    “Well, this is pretty much what we knew already. A shadowy group within the Attorney-General’s Department is actively consulting with the ISP and content industries about how to deal with the issue of Internet piracy. Consumer groups are being implicitly excluded, despite the fact that proposals are being considered which could see Australians actively cut off from their broadband access if a flimsy amount of evidence can be produced by the content industries to show that they have pirated content online one too many times.”

  42. Stupid, short-sighted, ignorant, greedy, selfish, arrogant, self centred so and so’s.
    Bloody irrigators- and their tame COALition politician.
    They are going to continue to kill the Murray so they can piss on dryland put salt into our drinking water and grow the wrong crops in the wrong places by the wrong methods just to feather their own nests and stuff the rest of us.
    With an El Nino probably on its way.
    Idiocy.
    Aaargh – dog I despise the arrogance of these …people.

  43. citizen:

    [One issue is that the PM’s office tried to take down the video last night when they discovered that it was being mocked. ]

    Okay, I didn’t know that. In which case it’s fair enough to keep the thing live. Sorry Dan G. But man, you shoulda just said straight up.

    However this raises a broader point on marketing 101. Qanda deploys reactionary rightwingers like Bernardi, this Rowan Dean character that everyone’s been frothing about today, and Nick Minchin because it knows its audience and knows it’ll get stronger viewer numbers from elitists like us when it presents these people to us. The resultant social media shitstorm that arises from the audience response to their appearance is like a feedback loop that in turn promotes the program more broadly. If I stop and think about this, it really does make me sick.

    Same goes for Abbott’s youtube efforts. Best to allow him to continue broadcasting to nobody by not linking to those videos but simply mocking their output. Curious people can seek them out, and now we know OM keeps a watch on twitter for emerging themes (the truly one useful thing I’ve gotten from Insiders this year), allow that medium to use its influence to really highlight those instances.

  45. Regarding Fairfax and Nielsen, apparently Nielsen is discontinuing political polling to concentrate on other business. Of course, Fairfax’s ability to afford the polls might have been a factor, given that there would be few if any other customers.

    Presumably Nielsen could establish a robo-polling subsidiary using its polling expertise if it sensed a business opportunity.

  48. guytaur

    As a bonus Rupes’ part owned Foxtel broadcasts ‘Last Week Tonight’ . So many of his customers will have seen it.

  49. [My tip: they’ll be moving to a cheaper automated phone pollster.]

    Now we know why they trialled ReachTel pre Budget.

  50. And while people are busily frothing about the D-Day stupidity, they are missing the bigger story of Abbott contradicting his education minister in QT today on just who is going to be subjected to the increased HECS payback rates.

    I haven’t seen any msm outlet report on Abbott’s insistence that the new rates will apply to everyone, regardless of when they enrolled, but I did hear him say this in the House this afternoon.

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