Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

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  3. I think it is reasonably obvious that the words “demented” and “unhinged” were not simply directed at Bolt by Turnbull. By extension, and the real targets being, Abbott and Murdoch. Perhaps Malcolm is trying to force Tony’s hand. Will he stay silent or defend his friend, Andrew?

  5. GG

    That is incredible, added to the Medical Research brainfart revealed today, only dreamt up in April, it seems Plod Dutton was hit by a cattle prod to DO SOMETHING.

  7. Rex Douglas #1408

    On what basis do you assert that the ALP has rolled over on carbon pricing?? Can’t be on the basis of votes in Parliament or public statements, so what’s your source?

  8. [Scott Morrison needs to be held to account.]

    I agree. Hopefully judgement day will come at the next election.

    I despise these offshore gulags for asylum-seekers as much as you do. I also despise Morrison as much as you do. But I’m not going to give this tinpot dictator any more air-time than he currently demands.

  10. Thanks, GG. I missed that. I am surprised by the public display of support by Tony. Behind the scenes, however..

  14. Geoff@1414


    The graph provided by Dave (thanks Dave) shows dips in arrivals in Nov12-Feb13, Feb12-April12 etc who is to say that this was just another dip and would ramp back up later?

    Bollocks again – nice try but changing the subject won’t work here.

    This is what you said –
    [ Geoff
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 4:07 pm | Permalink

    previous government never got results. ]

    The chart shows huge results as soon as rudd’s PNG solution was introduced.

  15. Morgan is out: GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 5m
    #Morgan Poll Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (0) ALP 38 (-0.5) GRN 11 (-1) PUP 7.5 (+1) #auspol

  18. sceptic

    Good to see PJK got a run. They did their homework .I’m looking forward to watching the episode in an hour.
    gold for his nodding episode comment.

    [Yes Tony Abbott knows ,one panicked pant shitting expression is worth a thousand words]

  19. 1463

    Dailymotion is not American. It is the French competitor to Youtube (It is so French, its parent company is part owned by the French Government who used that ownership to block the sale of Dailymotion at some point under the current government) and the content has been posted by an Australian denoted user of the site.

    http://www.dailymotion.com/Syd07

  22. [ruawake
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 3:34 pm | Permalink

    The Defence questions may have flown over the heads of a couple of people but its a white hot issue in oldsville.

    Abbott has scrapped defined benefit super for ADF staff, and has removed the wage indexation for the Service Pension.

    His no changes to pensions lie affects Defence retirees as well and they now know it.]

    I admit to being confused by what Abbott&Co have said about this. I blame them. But I believe the following are the relevant changes:

    (1) defence pensions indexing have been changed to be the better of CPI or something else. (Cost to budget in the order of billions of dollars)

    (2) not sure whether this applies to veterans’ widows

    (3) new signups to the ADF will not have access to a defined benefit pension.

    (4) not sure whether other pension-related benefits affect defence pension holders.

    Defence housing is on the list of things to be privatised, I believe.

  23. Tom the first and best

    The clip is from a spin off of Jon Stewarts program ‘The Daily Show’ , John Oliver’s ‘Last Week Tonight’ . I’m sure it will be on YouTube in no time at all. The episode is about to be on Sky 30 minutes.

  24. Like all conmen, Abbott clearly gets a huge charge when he takes down a mark. He only really lives when he lies. The rest of his life is just a grey nothingness.

  25. Why aren’t these racists trolls being prosecuted under the RDA?

    If Bolt got done, why aren’t they?

    [ST KILDA captain Nick Riewoldt has called on authorities to prosecute internet trolls who utter racial abuse via social media after footy’s latest racial outburst.

    Hawthorn star Cyril Rioli is the latest indigenous star to be devastated by racial abuse, outing an Instagram follower who posted vile outbursts.

    Rioli said he was angered to be racially abused “in a week of celebration”, a year after Adam Goodes was racially abused on the opening night of indigenous Round.]

  27. [Local govt dept: “A matter involving Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale has been referred to the Crime and Misconduct Commission” ]

    The matter is over $100,000 finding its way into his re-election fund. Oh from AWH by the way.

  30. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Tomorrow is a special day in Qld – where we all analyse to death a work of mostly poor fiction, but pretend it’s actually gospel

  31. [“A matter involving Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale has been referred to the Crime and Misconduct Commission”]

    I lived in and around Ipswitch on and off for about 20 years from the mid 1960s and some of the local government rorts during that period were staggering. But then this was also the Joh era, so corruption was everywhere. Guess not much has changed since then.

  35. Have cranked up my projector for Last Week Tonight which starts in about 30 seconds. Abbott’s maceration on a big screen .What a joy.

  36. Hi I am having a look at PB as having a rest day today to try and help my back, which I hurt in Croatia lifting my suitcase on & Off ferry while the Croatian men watched then pulling it about 1 1/2 to the hotel over cobblestones

    Anyway using the natural hot springs here on Milos helping a bit plus pain killers, hope will be OK soon

    A good Newspoll will cheer me up

    Puff if you are around hope you had a great birthday

  37. [Wonder if bad blood still exists between Newman and Pisasale?]

    Most people who have to deal with Newman eventually detest him. Paul Pisasale seems to be an OK guy, he has a nasty disease and collects short black coffee cups. So nuke the Indie guy is my reading of it.

  39. WOW!!!

    Thanks to all those who shared, tweeted and retweeted the copy of the Abbott DDay speech I put up on YouTube.

    Over 3,300 views (so far) in less than 24 hours!!!

    Thanks again everyone.

  43. Poroti
    I did watch and was also sent to me on twitter and email, did take my mind off my back I can assure you, although does cringing make things worst????

  44. Dan G:

    Why are you providing a sharing service for Abbott’s nuff nuff videos? We already know that the Liberals can’t do social media, hence an Abbott youtube on a freeway somewhere gets hundreds of viewers, whereas an Albo youtube on the same gets tens of thousands.

    Why help them out in this way?

  46. Paul Pissale is well respected both here and abroad.

    Because he is an accessible and tireless worker for his district.

    That doesn’t absolve him of any wrong doing.

    Just saying!

  47. [
    guytaur
    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 2:50 pm | Permalink

    “@tanya_plibersek: We’ve had Scott Morrison audition. Here comes Malcolm’s #qt #auspol”
    ]
    I wonder who she thinks will get the gig.

  49. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Three step primer for understanding tomorrows Qld budget if you have to read it. 1. Skip budget paper No. 1

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 39s

    2. Skip the words of Budget paper No. 2 and go straight to the UPF figures. Then read the numbers of Paper 3 and Content of Paper 4

  50. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 45s

    3. Now you know reality – go back and read Paper No.1 and the words of No.2 Compare and contrast. Then call them liars

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