Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

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  1. Good grief the odious Rowan Dean is on qanda panel tonight

    Tonight’s Panel
    Cory Bernardi – Liberal Senator
    Catherine King – Shadow Health Minister
    Lawrence Krauss – Theoretical Physicist & Cosmologist
    Lucy Turnbull – Former Lord Mayor of Sydney
    Rowan Dean – Associate Editor, Spectator Australia

  2. I didn’t see all of QT today but from the bits I caught it all looked a bit wishy washy. That aside, the role of the opposition is, by definition, to oppose. If the government chooses to self-destruct why oppose it?

  3. I suppose it’s not worth bothering about any more, but Greg Hunt did a typical Coalition distortion of facts around the Carbon Tax. His nose grows longer by the day. It’s a pity he doesn’t get any questions about Landcare.

  4. [As repeal of carbon tax nears, the World Bank reports on global growth in carbon pricing. Humiliating for Australia http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/05/28/state-trends-report-tracks-global-growth-carbon-pricing …]

    but that’s impossible – abbott and hunt said the rest of the world wasn’t acting……

    I’m hoping PM turnbull represents us well at the post-kyoto talks in 2015. With the US and china acting to achieve 25-30% reductions, abbott’s job at these talks will be to stuff it up – this is what the fossil fuel lobby bought the liberal party to do.

  5. Gary’s Mob are picking up some “unusual” State figures.

    [Analysis by States
    The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all six Australian States. New South Wales:
    ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Queensland: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, South
    Australia: ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%, Western Australia: ALP 56% cf. ALP 44% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf.
    L-NP 42%.]

  6. lizzie #1403

    Carbon pricing is another issue, along with asylum seekers, the ALP seems to have meekly rolled over on.

    It’s a shame as Butler is a good communicator in my view.

  7. [Morgan: ALP 38 (-0.5), L-NP 35 (-), GRN 11 (-1), PUP 7.5 (+1). Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, 56.5-43.5 to 55-45 on previous election.]

    if newspoll gives a similar result, watch The Australian headlines “voters turn away from ALP and Greens” 🙂

  8. @1406 – now the chorus of “why aren’t they (the ALP) doing better!??!?!” begins.

    They’re up by 10-13% 9 months after they got killed at an election… that won’t stop the whinging though.

    BTW – I’m expecting Newspoll to hold steady…

  9. William,

    The most interesting result from that Morgan poll is the GCI chart which shows confidence has deteriorated from day 1 of the Abbott Government being elected and there is no signed that it has bottomed.

  10. [Look I realise it’s tough times for your team, but the facts show the slowing/stopping of the boats is a result of the no-visa-on-arrival policy, the no-visa/PNG resettlement policy and the boat turnback policy.]

    problem being these policies were never in long enough to get results. The election came and the policies changed which provided measured results.

    The graph provided by Dave (thanks Dave) shows dips in arrivals in Nov12-Feb13, Feb12-April12 etc who is to say that this was just another dip and would ramp back up later?

  11. GG, that confidence figure doesn’t surprise given that, as far as this Govt’s leadership is concerned, Abbott would have trouble leading his own digit out of his rectum.

  12. Geoff #1414

    When was Indonesia’s no-visa-on-arrival policy and Australia’s no-visa/PNG resettlement policy dumped ?

  13. Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 4m

    RBA index of commodity prices: Down 1.0% in AUD terms in May: lowest since December 2012

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    RBA Index of Commodity Prices: Down 1.0% in USD terms: Lowest since March 2010. Down 32.4% from 2011 peak

  14. House prices have dipped the most here in melbourne and the job market especially in construction is depressed.
    No wonder the govt rating has dropped as low as it has

  15. [When was Indonesia’s no-visa-on-arrival policy and Australia’s no-visa/PNG resettlement policy dumped ?]

    They wern’t but you are assuming these policies are the silver bullet.
    Why was it not the media blackout or the reduction/suspension of bridging visas, the threat of reintroduction of TPVs and what you aptly pointed out boat turn backs?
    there were alot more policies to come in after those. They were never in long enough to prove that they were the policies that did it.

  16. What sort of questions will the audience ask Rowan Dean?

    How about Are you really a total prat or do you just put it on to get your mug on the box?

  17. Lynchpin,

    One of the reasons Labor was thrown out was the incessant whinge about the hung Parliament being bad for business confidence and certainty.

    The drop in consumer confidence due to the incompetence of the new Government pre-Christmas and now the poor reception to the Budget will be sending shivers down the spine of all those pre-election whiners.

    The loss in confidence, the bringing forward of half yearly sales, the drop in building approvals and the drop in housing prices announced today are all signs that Abbott and co are steering us in to a recession that we didn’t have to have.

    Analysts are still saying the drop in confidence is just a temporary thing. But, those assertions are really starting to look more hope than based on hard data.

  18. [The ALP maintains a strong two-party preferred lead in all six Australian States. New South Wales:
    ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%, Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Queensland: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, South
    Australia: ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%, Western Australia: ALP 56% cf. ALP 44% and Tasmania: ALP 58% cf.
    L-NP 42%.]

    The results here in Queensland does not seem to buck the trend in the last few Federals polls there.

  19. GG

    Remember before the election, the change of Govt was going to turbocharge the economy and fix all of Abbott’s problems with data and forecasts.

    Weird how it didn’t happen. 😉

  20. It will be interesting to see, if there is a recession GG, how the politics of that plays out. In the past, it might have played into the incumbent Tory Govt’s hands, but with the current Govt, I am not so sure.

    I really think Abbott and Hockey have been truly found wanting by this Budget,

  21. [Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in
    the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”]

    Respondence saying “wrong direction” has increased from 43% to 45.5% to produce a Government Confidence Rating of 93.5%, down from 96.5%.

  22. RexD:

    [It’s a disgraceful situation that he needs to held account on.]

    Let the Greens do it. Gives them something to do.

  23. Geoff #1421

    You’re not thinking…

    Now concentrate Geoff, TPV’s and bridging visa’s in Australia are irrelevant to people smugglers now as you simply can’t get an Australian visa at all now. The people smugglers can’t sell resettlement in Australia.

    Do you understand now ?

  24. 1427

    Looked up the wrong dates. It’s gone even worse.

    May 24/25
    & 31/ June 1

    Right direction 37
    Wrong direction 48.5
    Roy Morgan GCR* 88.5
    Can’t say 14.5
    TOTAL 100

  25. Greensborough Growler

    Yeah that was one of the claims about an LNP victory. The “certainty” provided by a Coalition win would mean the floodgates of investment would be opened. So joy and economic happiness would spread across the land.

  26. Tomorrow’s Qld Budget will be an eyebrow raiser. Newman has already revealed a $2.7 billion “blowout” in the budget deficit due to dodgy royalty estimates.

    Timmy is saying no cuts to anything and no tax increases, yet Campbell reckons a surplus is a year after the election away.

    I think I will name tomorrow “heroic assumptions day”. 😆

  27. Many people have the attention span of a goldfish.

    So what the ALP should do now is send a pledge form to every elector – certainly every one in a quasi-marginal seat – asking them to pledge now that they will not vote for this lying,untrustworthy government.

    They may even like to contribute to the anti-government effort.

    As the election approaches, remind them of their pledge.

  28. ruawake

    Re Timmy’s claims sounds awfully familiar.

    [“We will also be announcing and making it clear that there will be no cuts to services nor will there be any new tax, fees or charges in this year’s,’’ he said…….. to deliver services without having to increase fees, taxes or charges]

  29. @Toorak/1439

    No, ALP should not make mistake that Abbott has done and “Pledged” and “Promise” everything under the sun.

  30. What odds Abbott returning from his meeting with Obama and declaring he’d been inspired and educated by the US committment to an ETS. Given this was the way the rest of the world is going, we should keep the currrent Carbon/ETS legislation in place.

  31. The QANDA panel looks very thin, but Lawrence Krauss is nobody’s fool, and has a pretty robust persona. Him tearing into Cory Bernardi should be amusing.

  32. Labor 62% in SA looks pretty handy. Goodbye Christopher!

    No doubt the defection of Martin Hamilton-Smith to the state Labor Cabinet has disillusioned Liberal voters.

    As well as Hindmarsh and Sturt, seats like Grey and Mayo start to look interesting.

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