Seat of the week: Gorton

Labor front-bencher Brendan O’Connor is securely ensconced in what remains Labor’s sixth safest seat, despite a 7.5% swing to the Liberals at last year’s election.

Red numbers indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Gorton is located at Melbourne’s strongly Labor-voting western edge, covering the rapidly growing fringe suburbs of Derrimut and Deer Park in the south, Caroline Springs and Kings Park in the centre and Hillside in the north, and from there extending westwards through semi-rural areas to the satellite town of Melton. The latter area was gained with the redistribution that took effect at the 2013 election, adding 32,000 voters who had previously been in Lalor. This was counterbalanced at the city end through transfers of 33,000 voters at Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lakes to Calwell in the north, 9000 west of the rail line in St Albans to Maribyrnong in the centre, and 13,000 in Ardeer and Sunshine West to Gellibrand in the south. This boosted the ample Labor margin of 22.2% to 23.6%, which was then cut at the election by a 7.5% swing to the Liberals.

The electorate was created at the previous redistribution ahead of the 2004 election in place of abolished Burke, which furnished it with 12,000 voters around Sydenham and also included Melton and areas beyond the city to the north. This area was covered by Corio prior to pre-war urbanisation and the expansion of parliament in 1949, after which it was accommodated by shifting aggregations of Lalor (created in 1949), Burke (1969) and Calwell (1984). With the exception of one defeat in Lalor at the Liberals’ statewide high water mark in 1966, each of these three seats has been won by Labor at every election since their creation. Gorton’s inaugural member was Brendan O’Connor, who had entered parliament as member for Burke in 2001. His exchange of the predominantly rural outskirts seats of Burke for one anchored in outer suburban Melbourne was a welcome development, boosting his margin from 5.5% to 20.2%.

O’Connor rose through Labor ranks as an official with the Australian Services Union with factional backing from the Ferguson Left, which is now more likely to be identified under its formal name of the Independent Left. He was promoted to shadow parliamentary secretary when Kevin Rudd became leader in December 2006 and then to the junior ministry after the 2007 election victory, serving first in employment participation, then in home affairs in June 2009. Justice was added to his workload after the 2010 election, and in December 2011 he was shifted to human services. O’Connor stood by factional colleague Julia Gillard during Rudd’s leadership challenges in February 2012 and June 2013, and won promotion to cabinet as Small Business Minister on the former occasion. Further promotion to the troublesome immigration portfolio followed in February 2013, and he did well to be moved to employment after Rudd assumed the leadership the following June. Since the September 2013 election defeat he has served in shadow cabinet in the employment and workplace relations portfolios.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Seat of the week: Gorton”

Comments Page 28 of 35
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  2. The big loser in today’s QT is Abbott. He is punching on memory, but it is clear that the Government is protecting the prime minister by asking everyone else the Dorothy Dixers.

  3. Bemused – (and the rolling-eyed one at Headquarters) ….believe what you wish to believe, support who you think is worthy of it and cheer for the winning side.

    A goodly part of what passes here is trivia though it has to be said interesting trivia.

  5. Well, Labor did have a strategy but it ran aground somewhat on the defence pensions issue and then gathered some momentum later in QT.

    Abbott is a wounded bull surrounded by superior QT performers.

  6. A very poor Government and an uninspiring Opposition.

    The Independent Alliance urges voters to carefully consider their preferences at upcoming elections.

  7. Kevin-One -Seven 1340
    ____________
    Re Oz endless attacks on Clive Palmer

    ____________
    Yes,,,it seems a Murdoch tactic…just attack and attack and attack….
    Palmer hates Murdoch and with good reason ,,,that is clear from his many statements ..
    but why do Murdock’s lackeys go on and on after Palmer…every story is used to try to discredit him..but they fail,because Palmer is clever with the media

    I believe that the next round of polls will show he is taking more votes from the Libs than ever
    What does Murdoch do then?

  10. Lizard

    Interesting how Abbott repeats the lie about macklin and the co payment.

    As I recall she said that even The Austraiian acknowledged she opposed the copayment while working for hawke.

    Why does nobody call Abbott out on this

    Ok. Stupid question, don’t answer….

  12. [ Boerwar

    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 3:15 pm | Permalink

    Bolt does not like Turnbull because Turnbull uses big words, talks posh and does irony.
    ]

    ————————————————

    …. whereas Tony stumbles over big words, talks shit and does the ironing*

    ( only irons when he insults Australian women about their role with an iron in the home )

    ‘Old-fashioned’ Tony Abbott gets an ironing out

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/old-fashioned-tony-abbott-gets-an-ironing-out/story-e6freooo-1225828025114

  13. Bolt will do anything for publicity.

    If you look up the definition of “troll” his photo will be there.

  15. [when is Whyalla gonna get liberated?

    Sheesh! Is that place STILL there???]

    Jeez I hope so, I’m visiting it on Friday.

  16. [ Lynchpin

    Posted Monday, June 2, 2014 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    Terri Butler is quite attractive.
    ]

    ————————————————-

    drat ….. Should have gone to Specsavers ……

  17. Just been over at Bolt’s blog reading comments on his tit-for-tat with Turnbull.

    Apart from those who think the best way for Turnbull to react to a Bolt Criticism is to shut up and take it like a man, there is a surprising number of anti-Bolt comments.

    The jist of the contras seems to be: the more Bolt talks about Liberal Leadershit, the more likely it is to happen.

    One tried to explain to Bolt that this is what Turnbull meant, when he made his “If these are friends…” comment.

    Naturally he was shouted down, but it does seem to be a reasonable point.

  18. The Defence questions may have flown over the heads of a couple of people but its a white hot issue in oldsville.

    Abbott has scrapped defined benefit super for ADF staff, and has removed the wage indexation for the Service Pension.

    His no changes to pensions lie affects Defence retirees as well and they now know it.

  19. BK
    [Just like medieval barbers used to drain blood from people to “make them better”.]

    If only someone would bring this up at QT.

  20. The problem with Ms F Kelly for me is not that she is on the LNP side. It’s that she simply lacks the intellectual acumen (or perhaps the interest) to apply rigour to her subject matter.

    In practice that tends to make her the plaything of whoever has the media scrum on its side at any given moment. She can’t go against the flow because she can’t or won’t do her homework.

    Her appearance on Insiders seems apt because she’s never straying from the cosy club.

    That’s why I stopped paying attention to her and her equally embarrassing sidekick, Michelle Grattan. It wasn’t that they were Liberals. They didn’t contribute any insight, and often allowed themselves to be used as vehicles for misdirection.

  22. Did anyone else notice Morrison boasting about the “we are winning the boats issue” with not one reference to the refugeewho burned himself to death yesterday out of despair.

    Crass behaviour but not unexpected from the likes of Morrison and Co.

  23. It’s not as if the Abbott Govt haven’t already started increasing costs;

    This is how the Abbott Govt show their care for small business;

    Small business (generally those with a turnover of less than $2 million) can currently claim an immediate deduction for depreciating assets costing less than $6,500. From 1 January 2014, this threshold will drop to $1000.

    $5000 deduction for motor vehicles

    From 1 January 2014, the $5000 immediate deduction for motor vehicles purchased by small businesses will be removed.

  25. MTBW #1372

    Of course Morrison is winning the boats issue – how could he not when the Opposition is pathetically mute.

  27. Rex

    My point being that although they may be winning the on the boat issue – something by the way that makes my stomach turn – there is no mention of the suicide yesterday by one who was on a visa here.

    Let’s just pass over that issue and boast.

  31. [Just been over at Bolt’s blog reading comments on his tit-for-tat with Turnbull.]

    I trust you washed yourself down properly before coming in here.

  32. Geoff #1379

    Do you acknowledge that the Indonesian Govt implemented a no-visa-on-arrival policy and the former Govt implemented a no-visa/PNG resettlement policy, both of which has crippled the people smugglers business model ?

  33. [Of course Morrison is winning the boats issue – how could he not when the Opposition is pathetically mute.]

    Boats? Who cares?

  34. Funny that the first PBS co-payment was was introduced in 1960 after the ALP has introduced the scheme in 1948 under Chifley.

    And boy didn’t the Libs whack on a doozy of a co-payment. 50%

  35. Indonesian Govt implemented a no-visa-on-arrival policy and the former Govt implemented a no-visa/PNG resettlement policy != has crippled the people smugglers business

    previous government never got results.

  37. MTBW #1377

    I was waiting for Richard Marles to stand up and ask Scott Morrison why this Government has let the PNG detention/processing facility which Labor introduced to successfully smash the people smuggling business decend into a deadly, violent battle ground ?

  38. @Ruawake/1384

    Perhaps Labor should refer the GP Tax to that of Latham’s Medicare Gold?

    “I can tell you this – I wouldn’t be risking my health at 75 on promises from Mr Latham.” – Peter Costello, ABC Lateline 30/09/2004

  39. Morrison is like a giant troll on steroids with a whack-a-mole stick baiting the ALP to pop their head up.

    The ALP are discussing policy via its policy platforms with opposing offshore detention being an option. How novel members making policy.

  41. Geoff #1385

    Look I realise it’s tough times for your team, but the facts show the slowing/stopping of the boats is a result of the no-visa-on-arrival policy, the no-visa/PNG resettlement policy and the boat turnback policy.

    That’s the reality you must eventually accept.

  42. [I was waiting for Richard Marles to stand up and ask Scott Morrison why this Government has let the PNG detention/processing facility which Labor introduced to successfully smash the people smuggling business decend into a deadly, violent battle ground ?]

    Rex, old chum – why would the Opposition put up distractions like this, when the Government is impaling itself on so many issues (health, education, pensions, the economy…)

  43. rex

    I understand what you are saying but they don’t ask the same set of questions everyday.

    I agree that someone in Labor should have asked that question but it all depends on the order of questions.

  44. [Look I realise it’s tough times for your team, ]

    It is. So let’s not give the Government oxygen on the only topic it actually *wants* to talk about.

  46. kakuru

    [Rex, old chum – why would the Opposition put up distractions like this, when the Government is impaling itself on so many issues (health, education, pensions, the economy…)]

    Spot on!

  48. I know such polls are not ‘scientific’ but I’d reckon 70% vrs 8% from over 14,000 votes (& I’m sure menzies house has been out to the faithful trying to boost tone’s vote) is fairly convincing. abbott also trailing Hockey and ‘somebody else’.

    popcorn please! I generally don’t like the gore of vikings and game of thrones but I’m going to enjoy this show.

  49. kakuru #1392

    The deadly PNG battleground Scott Morrison is incompetently managing is hardly a ‘distraction’.

    It’s a disgraceful situation that he needs to held account on.

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