UPDATE (Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result sings from the same song sheet, with Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one is entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.
After a relatively mild result from yesterday’s Galaxy poll, in which the government may have benefited slightly from an earlier polling period (Wednesday to Friday, the budget having been brought down on Tuesday night), two big name pollsters deliver horror results for the Coalition:
• Newspoll, conducted from Friday to Sunday, has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 38% for Labor (up four), 36% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down three) and 15% for others (up one). Worse still for the Coalition are the leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott down five on approval to 30% and up four on disapproval to 60%, while Bill Shorten leaps seven points on approval to 42% and drops two on disapproval to 39%. Shorten has opened up a big lead of 44-34 as preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 40-38 a fortnight ago. The Australian’s report here.
• Even worse for the Coalition is the monthly Nielsen result in the Fairfax papers. Conducted from Thursday to Saturday, it shows Labor’s lead out to 56-44 from 52-48 a month ago. The primary votes are 40% for Labor (up six), 35% for the Coalition (down five), 14% for the Greens (down three from am implausible result last time, but still very strong) and 6% for Palmer United (up two). Tony Abbott sinks nine points on approval to 34% and adds twelve on disapproval to 62%, whereas Bill Shorten is up four to 47% and down two to 39%, and shoots to a 51-40 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 45-44 last time.
The leadership ratings in particular invite comparison with Julia Gillard’s low points. While Abbott still has a way to go before matching the worst of Gillard’s ratings in Newspoll, his present net approval rating of 28% in Nielsen was exceeded by Gillard on only two occasions, in September and October of 2011, and equalled in July 2011. Gillard’s final result before she lost the leadership in June 2013 was 36% approval and 61% disapproval. Abbott himself scored fractionally worse figures as Opposition Leader in December 2012, of 34% approval and 63% disapproval.
Both pollsters also have results gauging reaction to the budget, with Nielsen finding 63% considering it unfair against 33% for fair. The deficit levy finds support, with 50% in favour and 37% against, but there’s a surprisingly narrow majority of 49% to 46% in favour of abolishing the carbon tax. The poll finds predictably strong opposition to the notion of increasing the GST, with 30% for and 66% against.
Newspoll’s results on budget reaction are particularly illuminating, as it has been asking the same three questions after every budget since 1988. Forty-eight per cent rate this budget as bad for the economy versus 39% for good, with 4% opting for neither; 69% say it will leave them worse off, compared with just 5% for better off and 20% for neither; and 39% believed that Labor would have done a better job, with 46% saying they wouldn’t have.
The latter result can be put into context with the following chart, showing the positive result minus the negative result for the equivalent question going back to 1988, with Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. This shows that the only budget to record a net result in favour of yes was in 1993, when the Keating government followed its surprise election win by breaking its L-A-W tax cuts promise. As such, the slight net negative result for this budget is an historically weak one for the government – particularly when taking into account an apparent tendency for governments to perform strongly on this measure when newly elected, and decline thereafter. This takes a good deal of gloss off the consolation the Coalition might have taken in the result being better than the last three for the previous government.
The next chart plots the result for each budget on “impact on own financial position” along the x-axis and impact on the economy along the y, with the current result indicated in red. This shows a clear association between the two results, demonstrating that people generally decide whether a budget is good or bad, and deem it equally so for both themselves and the economy. To the limited extent that variability exists, there does appear to be at least some constituency for the view that the pain inflicted in the current budget will be good for the economy – whereas the trendline indicates that the minus 64% rating on own financial position could be expected to associate with 24.5% on the economy, the latter figure in fact comes in at a relatively presentable minus 9%. Nonetheless, the outstanding fact to emerge from the chart is that the budget inhabits a zone of extreme unpopularity with only 1993 to keep it company. The budget the government might have been hoping to emulate, Peter Costello’s cost-cutting debut of 1996, had a plus 37% rating on the economy despite a minus 21% rating on personal financial situation.
Finally, a table showing the net result for all three measures at each budget, with averages by party at the bottom. This shows that despite the current results, Coalition budgets tend to be better received than Labor ones, with the gap being wider on impact on the economy. Partly this is down to historical circumstance – Labor was marked down for the recession-era budgets of the early 1990s, while the Howard government made political hay out of the revenue boom in its later years in office (though obviously not to the extent of saving them from the electoral cycle in 2007). However, it also reflects the tendency for the Coalition to outperform Labor in “best party to manage the economy” polling, a point illustrated by the averages for “would the opposition have delivered a better budget”. For more context on the individual budgets, here’s a very helpful resource from the Sydney Morning Herald.
What fools people are.
[What we are witnessing is the start of the greatest transfer of wealth this nation will ever see – from Australian citizens to foreign investors. As it gathers pace, the rights of landholders and farmers will be trampled upon as a weak political class succumbs to the lobbying of a hugely powerful global industry accustomed to getting its way.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-19/verrender-aussies-steamrolled-by-abbott-and-the-mining-giants/5461094
briefly
Abbott and his cronies are doing nothing to reassure the ciitzenry. Obviously this is part of the plan to dump a percentage of the population on the scrap heap
“@sspencer_63: “I don’t accept that there’s any breach of faith with the Australian people.” Abbott on the Budget.”
Briefly #1637
I usually admire your comments.
But your reply exemplifies the difficulties of the debate. You need to re-read my position.
The problem with income tax is massive avoidance / minimisation, especially at the top end (Joe’s family trust is an example, not to mention the many other schemes over the years, and new ones constantly being developed by spivs) and outright fraud and non compliance. It’s a walk in the park.
Not so with a well applied GST, since one thing that the upper end does, does well, does frequently, and does extravagantly is consume.
The regressive nature of GST can be easily corrected on the tax expenditure side by carefully structured structural rebates.
24 has split screen.
Abbott on left Thai army on right.
A suggestion?
[1652
victoria
Abbott and his cronies are doing nothing to reassure the ciitzenry. Obviously this is part of the plan to dump a percentage of the population on the scrap heap]
They truly seem to believe that the best way to strengthen the economy is to impoverish most of those who constitute it.
They’re not only cruel, they’re idiots.
“@political_alert: Treasurer @JoeHockey is in Sydney today and will hold a media conference at 11.30am #auspol #Budget2014”
Abbott’s new blue tie must be on steroids!
“@TheKouk: Bizarre for a PM to openly flag AAA risk rather than dealing with the issue”
The Guardian today –
[Doubling of Antarctic ice loss revealed by European satellite]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/may/19/doubling-of-antarctic-ice-loss-revealed-by-european-satellite
Apologies if this has already been posted – dont have time this morning to check.
Women who take time off work to have a baby face paying 30% more than their male counterparts in interest on their university student loans, according to new analysis of the Abbott government’s higher education changes.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/20/women-who-have-a-child-face-paying-30-more-interest-on-student-loans
Briefly…
Your posts are anything but “tedious”
I’ve learned so much about how our economy works from reading your excellent contributions. Thank you & please keep posting….
PS: my better half getting sick of me saying: “Briefly says…” 🙂 🙂
markjs
+1
“@ABCNews24: Watch: @Vic_Premier Denis Napthine speaking on the GST and #Budget2014 http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #springst #auspol #abcnews24”
Napthine does not support inrease in raye or broadening GST base
“@ABCNews24: Denis Napthine: What I do support and what I will fight for is a fair share of GST being returned to Victorians #springst #auspol”
[Doubling of Antarctic ice loss revealed by European satellite]
Last week it was increasing.
Yes, I know (or think I do) that it was sea ice increasing, and the article is about land ice, but all most punters see is “Antarctic”.
The messages are confusing.
+2
guytaur@1653
Abbott’s normal approach – crash or crash through.
GST is a regressive tax …and compo is soon diluted until it’s irrelevant.
Poorest currently getting up to 18% hit to their already meagre income..
GST also easiest tax to rort/evade using the cash economy… Tradies happy to NOT issue tax receipt & pocket the cash..
Can’t believe any ALP or other progressive would even contemplate broadening/raising this odious and unequal tax…
+3
From me for Briefly
briefly
I wouldn’t hold you to this but would changing from a variable to a fixed rate loan be a bad idea at this point in time?
If you don’t want to answer this question I won’t be offended.
The Abbott government’s decision to cut $80bn in health and education funding has left states with a “completely untenable and unsustainable” budget problem, the former Victorian Labor premier John Brumby has said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/john-brumby-says-gst-rise-inevitable-as-states-grapple-with-funding-crisis
vic
But . . but . . but there’s NO black hole.
Many blog posts I’ve read here (and elsewhere) say that Hockey did “well”. I can’t help but wonder if it’s got anything to do with expectations of him now being so pathetically low in contrast, say, to Labor supporters’ high bar for Shorten’s answers to every single question at every single presser.
As a wild surmise, I reckon those Q & A shows which have just the lone Pollie up there bloviating would attract a tv audience of 80 to 90 % rusted-on voters. Just how many of the tiny number of “undecided voters” who watched last night’s program were conned by Hockey that his budget is good for the country we’ll find out whenever Murdoch decides to let us to know.
Abbott with a 2UE shock jock this morning:
[PRIME Minister Tony Abbott is confident people will rally behind his government’s tough budget, even if they do so reluctantly.
A week after it was handed down, Mr Abbott was on Tuesday continuing his bid to sell the budget to Australians as opinion polls showed many weren’t impressed and thought it was bad for the economy.]
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/people-will-rally-behind-budget-abbott/story-e6frfku9-1226923631522
I think Labor should get Wayne Swan on Lateline to defend his record.
World Best treasurer destroying LNP budget emergency lie. MSM will then have to address the central lie
Those Thai’s – have been listen to abbott –
[ THAI MILITARY CHANNEL 5 SAYS MARTIAL LAW `NOT A COUP’. Ah, gotta love the New Normal: full of non-coupy martial laws.
This is how in Thailand people are told to keep calm and keep BTFD:]
…
[ URGENT: Thai troops seize TV broadcaster after declaring martial law; ticker message on screen reads “no need to worry” ]
…
[
Thailand’s army declared martial law on Tuesday to restore order after six months of anti-government protests which have left the country without a functioning government.
The declaration did not constitute a coup and was made in response to deteriorating security, an army general said.
“We declared a state of emergency, it’s not a coup. Because of the situation, it’s not stable, they kill each other every day,” a general, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.
Troops were patrolling in Bangkok and had secured television stations, he said.
“We need cooperation from them to announce to the people ‘do not panic, this is not a coup’,” the general said. ]
Hockey did well in the sense he did not lose his cool. He is a pretty accomplished salesman. The problem is he speaks in pretty broad generalisations.
While there were no “gotcha” moments, I don’t think Hockey convinced many doubters. Many continued to have querelous looks on their faces.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-19/thailand-army-declares-martial-law
@1676 – I completely agree, it’s all well and good to write articles, but getting his face out there and laying out the facts and start a genuine conversation about who the stronger economic manager were.
[GST is a regressive tax …and compo is soon diluted until it’s irrelevant.
Poorest currently getting up to 18% hit to their already meagre income..
GST also easiest tax to rort/evade using the cash economy… Tradies happy to NOT issue tax receipt & pocket the cash..
Can’t believe any ALP or other progressive would even contemplate broadening/raising this odious and unequal tax…]
Markkjs,
I just prepared a post nearly word for word as yours. That Brumby and others who condemn the cancer of growing income inequality in Australia should even contemplate a GST expansion/increase is a dead-set “Barry Crocker”.
I have visited 4 large Western USA cities this past decade, and it would be a tragedy if Australia ends up anywhere near their level of inequality.
“@an_news: Leader of #Thailand’s pro-government “red shirts” Jatuporn Prompan to continue protest until “country is back to democratic principles” .”
[ I don’t think Hockey convinced many doubters.]
Agree. Many of his doubters were not even watching.
psyclaw @1654
[The problem with income tax is massive avoidance / minimisation, especially at the top end (Joe’s family trust is an example, not to mention the many other schemes over the years, and new ones constantly being developed by spivs) and outright fraud and non compliance. It’s a walk in the park.]
That’s why governments should tax things that cannot be moved, like land and mineral resources.
Take land tax: it’s a wealth tax, it’s not explicitly progressive but is born by the wealthiest, and has the bonus of keeping the costs of shelter, a most basic form of consumption, under control.
@1674
I’m always a bit scared that people will fall for his good bloke act. To me, he has always been a sneering bully, but I don’t know if that perception is widely shared apart from on this blog, perhaps.
briefly,
I think lizzie @1651 has found the LNP’s answer to the growing CAD imbalance – forget productivity, just sell everything.
I reckon John Brumby is a stalking horse – good on him for trying to draw the LNP out.
Z
When the party leader so publicly calls for reform along those lines, its pretty fair to consider them as Shortens reforms.
It’s a question of his leadership whether he can drag the party where he wants it to go. If he doesn’t succeed it’s a big minus for his leadership, if he succeeds its a big positive for him.
Shorten presser due shortly
Someone just texted message to jon faine, asking what the listeners thought of Hockey’s stellar performance on qanda, and have people changed their mind in light of it
@smh: .@JoeHockey concedes $7 Medicare co-payment is a new tax – but denies the government lied to Australians. http://t.co/xKmT4jeR2I
“@ABCNews24: Watch LIVE: Opposition Leader @BillShortenMP is speaking in Brisbane http://t.co/FlRWJArtyW #Budget2014 #auspol”
With the polls looking not so good for the Coalition, karma would suggest now is about time for some political scandal to pop up concerning some Federal member of the LNP.
It always seemed to be Labor’s fortune in government to go, in sequence – from good, to bad, to worse and then, much worse.
A bit like General Slim, in Burma, when the allies were being hammered by the Japanese…was reported to have said to his officers, “Well, gentlemen, it could be worse. At least it is not raining.”.
Whereupon, of course, the heavens opened.
“@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: This Budget of broken promises reveals the rotten character of the Abbott Government #Budget2014 #auspol”
The Liberals do need to learn that, if they’re going to stack the audience with Young Libs, it’s a good idea if they’re not wearing suits and ties and look a little less groomed…
Is there a hidden meaning in Hockey saying the $7 GP tax could be called a rabbit?
Was he thinking of “Mr Rabbit” as in JG’s alleged mispronunciation of “Mr Abbott”?
@1690
Well hopefully not too many were watching. Can’t imagine it’s staple viewing for the swinging voters that delivered us this government in the first place.
Shorten showing impact of cuts on someone battling cancer
[ China Piles Troops, Tanks, Artillery And APCs Near Vietnam Border
Earlier today, Putin did his usual “we are pulling our forces away from the Ukraine border” gambit (sure he is… and is replacing them with a massive airforce drill)
but what is shaping up as a far more dangerous escalation is what China is doing next to its border with Vietnam, where as reported previously protesters destroyed Chinese factories and killed Chinese civilians in retaliation over yet another maritime territorial spat.
According to the Epoch Times, “troops, tanks, trucks, artillery, and armored personnel carriers of China’s military were seen heading to the Vietnamese border on May 16 and 17, according to photographs taken by by residents near the border.”
]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-19/%E2%80%9Cconflict-between-china-and-vietnam-imminent-china-piles-troops-tanks-artillery-and-
Diog
National Conference is the main game. Victorian State Conference is just about Victoria.