Nielsen: 56-44 to Labor; Newspoll: 55-45

The hostile reaction to the government’s first budget comes into sharper focus with two bruising new opinion poll results, both of which show Bill Shorten opening up a big lead as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan): The fortnightly Morgan face-to-face plus SMS result sings from the same song sheet, with Labor up 1.5% to 38.5%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 35%, the Greens steady on 12%, and Palmer up a point to 6.5%. Whereas Morgan polls usually combine two weekends of polling, this one is entirely from Saturday and Saturday, so all the responses are post-budget and the sample is somewhat smaller than usual. On two-party preferred, Labor’s lead is up from 53.5-46.5 to 56.5-43.5 on 2013 election preferences, and 55-45 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.

After a relatively mild result from yesterday’s Galaxy poll, in which the government may have benefited slightly from an earlier polling period (Wednesday to Friday, the budget having been brought down on Tuesday night), two big name pollsters deliver horror results for the Coalition:

• Newspoll, conducted from Friday to Sunday, has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 55-45, from primary votes of 38% for Labor (up four), 36% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down three) and 15% for others (up one). Worse still for the Coalition are the leadership ratings, which have Tony Abbott down five on approval to 30% and up four on disapproval to 60%, while Bill Shorten leaps seven points on approval to 42% and drops two on disapproval to 39%. Shorten has opened up a big lead of 44-34 as preferred prime minister, after Abbott led 40-38 a fortnight ago. The Australian’s report here.

• Even worse for the Coalition is the monthly Nielsen result in the Fairfax papers. Conducted from Thursday to Saturday, it shows Labor’s lead out to 56-44 from 52-48 a month ago. The primary votes are 40% for Labor (up six), 35% for the Coalition (down five), 14% for the Greens (down three from am implausible result last time, but still very strong) and 6% for Palmer United (up two). Tony Abbott sinks nine points on approval to 34% and adds twelve on disapproval to 62%, whereas Bill Shorten is up four to 47% and down two to 39%, and shoots to a 51-40 lead as preferred prime minister after trailing 45-44 last time.

The leadership ratings in particular invite comparison with Julia Gillard’s low points. While Abbott still has a way to go before matching the worst of Gillard’s ratings in Newspoll, his present net approval rating of 28% in Nielsen was exceeded by Gillard on only two occasions, in September and October of 2011, and equalled in July 2011. Gillard’s final result before she lost the leadership in June 2013 was 36% approval and 61% disapproval. Abbott himself scored fractionally worse figures as Opposition Leader in December 2012, of 34% approval and 63% disapproval.

Both pollsters also have results gauging reaction to the budget, with Nielsen finding 63% considering it unfair against 33% for fair. The deficit levy finds support, with 50% in favour and 37% against, but there’s a surprisingly narrow majority of 49% to 46% in favour of abolishing the carbon tax. The poll finds predictably strong opposition to the notion of increasing the GST, with 30% for and 66% against.

Newspoll’s results on budget reaction are particularly illuminating, as it has been asking the same three questions after every budget since 1988. Forty-eight per cent rate this budget as bad for the economy versus 39% for good, with 4% opting for neither; 69% say it will leave them worse off, compared with just 5% for better off and 20% for neither; and 39% believed that Labor would have done a better job, with 46% saying they wouldn’t have.

The latter result can be put into context with the following chart, showing the positive result minus the negative result for the equivalent question going back to 1988, with Labor budgets in red and Coalition budgets in blue. This shows that the only budget to record a net result in favour of yes was in 1993, when the Keating government followed its surprise election win by breaking its L-A-W tax cuts promise. As such, the slight net negative result for this budget is an historically weak one for the government – particularly when taking into account an apparent tendency for governments to perform strongly on this measure when newly elected, and decline thereafter. This takes a good deal of gloss off the consolation the Coalition might have taken in the result being better than the last three for the previous government.

The next chart plots the result for each budget on “impact on own financial position” along the x-axis and impact on the economy along the y, with the current result indicated in red. This shows a clear association between the two results, demonstrating that people generally decide whether a budget is good or bad, and deem it equally so for both themselves and the economy. To the limited extent that variability exists, there does appear to be at least some constituency for the view that the pain inflicted in the current budget will be good for the economy – whereas the trendline indicates that the minus 64% rating on own financial position could be expected to associate with 24.5% on the economy, the latter figure in fact comes in at a relatively presentable minus 9%. Nonetheless, the outstanding fact to emerge from the chart is that the budget inhabits a zone of extreme unpopularity with only 1993 to keep it company. The budget the government might have been hoping to emulate, Peter Costello’s cost-cutting debut of 1996, had a plus 37% rating on the economy despite a minus 21% rating on personal financial situation.

Finally, a table showing the net result for all three measures at each budget, with averages by party at the bottom. This shows that despite the current results, Coalition budgets tend to be better received than Labor ones, with the gap being wider on impact on the economy. Partly this is down to historical circumstance – Labor was marked down for the recession-era budgets of the early 1990s, while the Howard government made political hay out of the revenue boom in its later years in office (though obviously not to the extent of saving them from the electoral cycle in 2007). However, it also reflects the tendency for the Coalition to outperform Labor in “best party to manage the economy” polling, a point illustrated by the averages for “would the opposition have delivered a better budget”. For more context on the individual budgets, here’s a very helpful resource from the Sydney Morning Herald.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,941 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Labor; Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Briefly.

    As with Kevin Bonham, you shine a light. I do so wish people like GP and sad to say our own @1522 as above, were rather more positive.

    I spoke today with a friend who lives in Melbourne. She was heavily involved with Labor in our early days, but says she has given up. Not on social involvement and her teaching role.

    She means that the politicians do not meet her value standard anymore. Maybe it’s same old, over the years.

    Yet, about two months ago, she agreed with me about Jay Weatherall’s character and virtues. To the extent that she sent him a note or two.

    Anyway, she was heartened nevertheless when I opined that Abbott would never recover from this.

    I reminded her that she said I was right that Work Choices would lose Howard the election.

    Oh yes, you were. She brightened.

    There was some talk in SA today of a discussion on tax, and talk elsewhere about larger ideas. I understand why people are sceptical, but really, some kind of start is good.

    Maybe it really has to come from the people.

  2. If we simply imposed a tax of 0.5% on all wealth we would raise as much as the GST now raises.

    Rather than increasing GST, the States could refer their powers to tax wealth to the Commonwealth, who could apply a progressively scaled wealth tax. Then we could abolish the GST.

    Real disposable household income would get a big lift – maybe equivalent to about 5.5% of current gross household incomes or 7% of disposable incomes. The economy would get a boost, jobs would expand, total output would go up. The tax burden on working people would be shifted. We would all be better off.

  3. Great to see you cw. You’re right, of course, in your thinking, and I reckon you’re right about Abbott too. Try as he might – and he will fight very hard – he’s put himself in a very difficult position. See you soon 🙂

  4. Briefly

    Personally, I don’t have a huge problem with the G&ST. The key challenge IMO is to ensure that its consequences are not regressive — and one can do that by ensuring the revenue raised is directed proportionately towards those in most need. One of the good things about G&ST is that it captures a share of the tourist market, which a wealth tax would not — yet tourists to Australia are almost certainly as a group wealthier than our disadvantaged.

  5. Also, briefly, it seems to me that the more diverse the range of taxed human usages the harder it becomes for those adept at tax evasion to evade their obligations to contribute to the common pool. A portfolio of taxes is essential.

  6. Those concerned that the superannuation rules around the preservation age will be raised following Joe Hockey’s revelation on #qanda last night, no need to worry.

    Tony Abbott promised before the election there would be “no detrimental changes to super”.

  7. The trouble with Abbott, Hockey etc is that they are fundamentalists. To them certain things are self evident and evidence is not necessary and when contradictory to their beliefs, patently wrong. Thus climate change is crap because it is obvious that God wouldn’t do that. It’s also obvious that a certain order exists, they are doing what is right and god is on their side so the rest of us can just suck it up.

  8. [and one can do that by ensuring the revenue raised is directed proportionately towards those in most need.]

    So how are you going to do that?

    Maybe you might want to exempt the low to middle income earners from the GST which defeats the whole purpose of a consumption tax?

    If you want them to tax higher income earners more, you do it directly.

    Still in a LOONY world it might be acceptable to think you can take a regressive tax and distribute it progressively LOL

  9. I see GP is back in the traces.

    He had one cracker of a line: ‘Civility is a two-way street.’

    Can GP really be wanting us to urge people to kick Hockey and Abbott to death and then put them in a chaff bag and throw them into the sea?

  10. GP was right in one respect. All this is ideological. Abbott and Hockey were right when they accuse Labor of waging class war. And Laborites are righ when they say that the Coalition is waging a class war.

    The problem for the Coalition is that the plebian have woken up that they are being screwed by their betters.

    It’s on.

  11. “I have never heard that Mirabella is in the army reserve, and I’m sure I would have…”

    It must be as a cannon ball.

  12. I did not see Hockey on qanda last night, but judging from the feedback here, he did okay. Okay in what sense? Convincing the electorate that this budget is good?

  13. Reading back over the comments on Hockey on Q&A…
    He did well? Had answers for everything?

    It was obvious to me that nearly all the questions addressed points that had appeared recently in the Press. Hockey was able to repeat the same answers which he had been practising for days.

    Just for once TJones argued with a Liberal pollie.

    But the whole thing left me unsatisfied.

  14. Someone asked whether Army Reserve members were counted as APS staff.

    I don’t know but I have my doubts.

    One issue would be double counting as some APS staff are also in the reserves. There are also different categories of reserve status which might affect how you count them. The total is around 30,000.

    Another issue is that, for running cost purposes, APS staff are counted by of FTE or full-time equivalents. Thus, two half-times would be one FTE.

    Most reservists would spend well less than a month on-the-job, for example so it is uncertain how you would count the 30,000 reservists if they were APS staff.

    I am not sure that ADF uniforms are counted as part of the public service. OTOH, civilian staff in the Department of Defence are so counted.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Army_Reserve

  15. In terms of Mirabella, the Army Reserve needs a wide range of specialists, including lawyers.

    I assume that that is the capacity in which Mirabella is a member of the reserve.

    I do find it amusing that Melbourne University gave her a job as a public policy fellow.

    She did eff all public policy work as Shadow Spokesperson for Industry. Macfarlane, who inherited her job, has the thankless task of destroying Australia’s manufacturing.

    After all, spivs don’t actually make anything.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    WOW! Peter Martin calls out this vindictive government for what it is.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scoresettling-budget-looks-after-mates-20140519-zrhbg.html
    And Clive Palmer agrees.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/19/abbott-has-delivered-a-budget-for-the-lobbyists-and-liberal-donors
    Coalition MPs start to break ranks and call for even more regressive taxation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/slap-gst-on-fresh-food-says-senior-coalition-mp-20140519-38k88.html
    A derisive comment piece on Hockey from Rebecca Douglas.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/beer-and-ciggies-more-like-let-them-eat-cake-from-joe-hockey-atop-his-tower-20140519-zrh3z.html
    Looks like Rolf Harris is a genuinely nasty bit of work.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/rolf-harris-he-was-targeting-people-who-were-in-awe-of-him-20140519-zrhml.html
    Lots of questions about the medical research future fund.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/leading-scientists-cautious-about-20bn-medical-research-fund
    “Call it a tax if you like”. Now where have we heard that before?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-admits-copayment-is-a-new-tax–or-a-rabbit-20140519-38kh5.html?rand=1400531536503
    Lots of negatives on the budget here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-ridiculed-over-bad-policies-20140519-38k7y.html
    The budget gives dental care a kick in the teeth again.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/dental-funding-waiting-lists-surge
    Here’s a good article on how the co-payments will affect us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/medicare-fee-could-make-many-skip-diagnostic-tests-20140519-38k8c.html

  17. Section 2 . . .

    That’s right – the Young Libs can fill this hole!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/budget-cuts-force-australian-youth-affairs-group-to-close-20140519-38k83.html
    Katharine Murphy reckons they have taken us for mugs.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/budget-gets-no-brownie-points-for-bravery-from-voters-taken-for-mugs
    ASIC moves on the CBA. A bit late though.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/which-bank-is-on-notice-after-asic-probe-into-scandal-20140519-38k5v.html
    Kate McClymont on ICAC getting down and dirty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hollywood-watson-v-i-cant-recall-in-icac-ring-20140519-38k89.html
    Here’s The Gaurdian’s take on the day in ICAC.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/19/chris-hartcher-icac-hearing-descends-into-chaos-amid-squabbling-barristers
    George Williams on some ominous bipartisan moves on asylum seekers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/asios-new-power-over-asylum-seekers-needs-proper-checks-and-balances-20140519-zrgur.html
    The YMCA chief must have got the heads up on the RC report.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ymca-nsw-chief-steps-down-20140519-38kd8.html
    Three nice Young Libs – I wonder what their families’ financial situations are.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/three-of-a-kind-with-a-liberal-attitude-towards-a-fair-budget-20140519-38k7z.html
    Morriscum and Abbott may face a Senate vote on the potential Cambodia AS deal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-will-try-to-force-senate-vote-on-plans-to-settle-refugees-in-cambodia-20140519-38k8i.html

  18. Section 3 . . .

    David Pope in the Liberal operating theatre.

    MUST SEE! Alan Moir on the big fight.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Cathy Wilcox explains the co-payment money trail.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    John Spooner and Mr Magic Pudding.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/john-spooner-20090716-dmsv.html
    Ron Tandberg on building infrastructure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    A classic from David Rowe as the Liberals reflect on the recent polls.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  19. a different perspective on retirement age from Germany. Its more about how long you have been in the workforce, rather than some arbitrary age

    [(Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition agreed on Monday on the final details of a flagship pension reform to lower the retirement age for some people that economists have warned could hurt Europe’s biggest economy.

    The coalition parties overcame differences over some details, clearing the way for lawmakers to vote on it on Friday.

    The plans are almost certain to be passed thanks to a big parliamentary majority for Merkel’s “grand coalition” of conservatives and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), although some of Merkel’s Christian Democrats may oppose it.

    “The parliamentary parties of the coalition have agreed on a pensions package,” conservative Volker Kauder said, adding it was “a good example of how the grand coalition can get its work done”.]

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/19/uk-germany-pensions-idUKKBN0DZ16120140519

  20. Centre

    [Maybe you might want to exempt the low to middle income earners from the GST which defeats the whole purpose of a consumption tax?]

    I’d sooner give low to lower middle income earners non-cash benefits in exchange e.g. low or zero cost dental, transport, quality childcare, housing etc). This ensures poor households are materially assisted.

  21. Fran

    But dental, transport etc, etc are cash benefits. Everything needs to be costed and payed for.

    If it’s revenue you want to raise to provide these services, do it directly with a progressive form of taxation, you are going the wrong way with a regressive tax.

    You are living in fantasy if you think it will happen with a regressive tax system.

  22. vic
    we should have had a late night last night as some time ago we bought tickets to see The Ten Tenors in Adelaide but when I got the tickets out I realised they were for SUNDAY! What a dill!

  23. 1567
    victoria

    [I did not see Hockey on qanda last night, but judging from the feedback here, he did okay. Okay in what sense? Convincing the electorate that this budget is good?]

    The parts I saw as I flicked past looked like a train wreck for Hockey. He looked like just what he was.

  24. So now it appears that if the budget measures are blocked, Australia is at risk of losing its AAA credit rating. Spare me

  25. Indeed. From what I saw, he managed to disabuse a wide audience of any suspicion they might have held that he was in some way a suitable person for high office. The only people who could continue to believe that would be those concerned with the brand rather than the substance.

  26. Hockey actually did a little bit of work for the program last night and was prepared.

    All you needed was Bowen in attendance on the same stage to expose Hockey once and for all. Of course Hockey would never be a show under those circumstances.

  27. RR

    Thanks. The single biggest bit of budget news is that iron ore spot prices fell 2% overnight.

    If the iron ore price trend continues (down about 20% in seven months) then most of the current discussion about the federal budget will be meaningless.

    The squabbling will be about the offal, not the meat of the carcase of our economy.

    I assume that, given the way in which Fortescue Mining is leveraged, Mr Forrest may have yet another monster fall from grace.

    But who knows?

  28. Morning all. Dio your link to the evasion of reform by Labor confirms the reasons I am not a member. This story of blatant misreporting of NBN progress in Canberra confirms how that power was abused in office.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/thousands-of-canberrans-misled-says-nbn-co-heavyweight-20140519-zrhgo.html

    An honest inquiry in SA would give no better a story of NBN progress. Never has such a good idea been delivered so incompetently by people so unqualified to implement it. Conroy and Kaiser involved in the one organisation is a recipe for failure.

    Good to see various economists calling out the budget. The more it gets analysed the worse it will appear. Have a good day all.

  29. Fran
    [I’d sooner give low to lower middle income earners non-cash benefits in exchange e.g. low or zero cost dental, transport, quality childcare, housing etc). This ensures poor households are materially assisted.]
    I understand your aims but disagree on means. With many of those services now delivered privately and paid for by government and user charges, there would be a massive cost to giving them services for free.

  30. v

    I doubt it.

    Ms Rhinehardt has been adept at reading the tea leaves. I believe that she picked coal price trends and exited some rather large coal holdings before before the wave.

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