Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff

This week’s Seat of the Week double-up accounts for the northern two-third of the Gold Coast, served by Liberal National Party members Stuart Robert and Steven Ciobo.

Fadden

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Fadden covers the northern part of the Gold Coast municipality, from Gaven and Labrador in the south through Coomera, Pimpama and Ormeau to Logan River in the north, with the Pacific Motorway forming most of its western boundary. This area’s intensive population growth has caused the electorate to be progressively drawn into the Gold Coast since its creation in 1977, at which time it contained none of its present territory, instead covering outer southern Brisbane and the Gold Coast’s rural hinterland. The redistribution caused by the expansion of parliament in 1984 drew it into Brisbane, extending as far northwards as Salisbury and Rochedale, with the Logan River as its southern boundary. It first infringed upon the Gold Coast when it acquired Coomera at the 1996 election, the migration being completed with the exchange of Redland Bay in the north for Southport in the south at the 2004 election. The ongoing population explosion caused it to shed nearly 14,000 voters inland of its current boundary at the most recent Queensland redistribution before the 2010 election.

With the exception of 1983, Fadden in its various guises has been won at every election by the conservatives, meaning the the Liberal Party prior to the 2010 merger and the Liberal National Party thereafter. The inaugural member was Don Cameron, who had held Griffith for the Liberals since 1966. The 1975-engorged margin was whittled away at the 1977 and 1980 elections, then overturned with David Beddall’s victory for Labor with the election of the Hawke government. Cameron returned to parliament a year later at a by-election caused by Jim Killen’s retirement in Moreton, which became the third seat he represented. The 1984 redistribution made Fadden notionally Liberal, causing David Beddall to jump ship for Rankin. The seat was then won for the Liberals by David Jull, who had held the seat of Bowman from 1975 until his defeat in 1983. Jull’s margins were less than 5% until 1996, but generally well into double digits thereafter.

Jull was succeeded on his retirement at the 2007 election by Stuart Robert, a former army intelligence officer. Robert was said to have played a role in “rounding up support” for Tony Abbott ahead of his challenge to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership in December 2009, and was elevated afterwards to shadow parliamentary secretary in the defence portfolio. He was further promoted after the 2010 election to the outer shadow ministry portfolio of defence science, technology and personnel, which was rebadged as Assistant Defence Minister following the 2013 election victory.

Moncrieff

Teal numbers indicate two-party majority for the LNP. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Moncrieff covers the central Gold Coast from Miami north through Surfers Paradise to Nerang Head, and inland to Nerang and Highland Park. The seat was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, previous to which the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson since 1949, and by Moreton beforehand. Moncrieff originally extended deep into rural territory at Beaudesert, before assuming its current coastal orientation with Beaudesert’s transfer to Forde in 1996. Prior to Moncrieff’s creation the entirety of the Gold Coast had been accommodated by McPherson, which had itself been created with the previous expansion of parliament in 1949. The Gold Coast had originally been contained within the electorate of Moreton, which has since migrated into Brisbane’s southern suburbs. The area has had conservative representation without interruption since 1906, with McPherson passing from Country Party to Liberal Party control in 1972, and Moncrieff being in Liberal and more recently Liberal National Party hands since its creation.

Steven Ciobo assumed the seat at the 2001 election after the retirement of its inaugural member, Kathy Sullivan, who had previously been a Senator since 1974, establishing what remains a record as the longest serving female member of federal parliament. Ciobo emerged through Liberal ranks as a member of the Right faction, associated with former ministers Santo Santoro and Warwick Parer and state party powerbroker Michael Caltabiano. He rose to the shadow ministry in the small business portfolio after the defeat of the Howard government, which was elevated to a shadow cabinet position when Malcolm Turnbull ascended to the leadership in September 2008. However, he was demoted to the outer shadow ministry portfolios of tourism, arts, youth and sport when Tony Abbott became leader in December 2009 and relegated to the back bench after the August 2010 election, which was generally reckoned to be a consequence of his support for Turnbull. Following the 2013 election victory he won promotion to parliamentary secretary to the Treasurer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

621 comments on “Seats of the week: Fadden and Moncrieff”

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  1. Diogs re Thursday game.

    Great – it really adds to the city and does make me proud to be living in it. Some night food markets along the banks of the Torrens would be a treat too!

    I will be sure to go to the next Swans game there and be cheering for another Swans whitewash of the Crows 😉

    BB re Shorten, that was something like how my paragraphs were going to go. Well put.

  2. BW –

    [ We should be seeking to develop an alliance with Malaysia and Indonesia and we should use that alliance to act as a pivot between India and China. Both Malaysia and Indonesia, for historic reasons that they would understand perfectly well, would get this concept straight away. ]

    Don’t overlook Singapore either – do you realise they have about 90 modern fighter aircraft – about the same as us. Plus of course its Malacca location.

    We used to have a fighter squadron based in Malaysia well after the emergency and I think relations are pretty good but could be built on.

    Indonesia has been a more difficult one over the years with TNI human rights abuses which go on to this day in Papua and probably still in Aceh as well.

    [ Instead, Australia makes itself hostage to the US by stationing 1500 troops in Darwin. ]

    I know the point you are making, but they are rotated through Darwin during specific time windows each year and are half a Brigade strength – which is very modest and in any case those same troops are also probably already based somewhere in the region and probably stationed permanently even closer to China already.

    Never mentioned in the same context are the permanently based US Ships in Singapore – in all likelihood – nuclear capable ships. Far different.

    But rarely mentioned.

  3. Great article on Waleed Aly v Bolt

    [“The madman is not the man who has lost his reason…The madman is the man who has lost everything except his reason.”…The media is, of course, full of such lunatics. It courts them, fashions them, panders to them. Their maddening simplicity lends itself to the culture of complacent ignorance enshrined in the media and encouraged in its audience. In a triumph of bipartisan nihilism, madmen across the ideological spectrum – aided and abetted by their media patrons – have conspired to ensure that any matter of consequence, any topic requiring even a modicum of nuance, simply cannot be the subject of patient, sustained public conversation.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/religion/articles/2014/05/15/4005307.htm

  4. [
    Odd too that many of the citics of Putin in the Oz elites and here on PB .have no critique of China ..like all out leaders who can’t get to Beijing quickly enough on taking office and make the ritual kow-tow to the rulers in Beijing’s Forbidden City

    I don’t recall Gillard.Rudd or Bishop ever saying piblically how bad the Chinese record on Human Rights is and how deplorable…least of all to their faces
    ]

    deblonay

    Well, Rudd did at least.

    [
    KEVIN Rudd, defying official protests from Beijing, has used the first day of his China trip to highlight human rights abuses in Tibet and to vow to pursue the issue with Chinese leaders.

    The Prime Minister surprised and wowed students at Peking University as he addressed them in Mandarin, at some points cracking jokes and at others criticising their Government and its human rights record.
    ]

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rudd-confronts-china-on-human-rights/2008/04/09/1207420486421.html

  5. Deblonay

    Cannot say for Deb but I can for me:

    [Do you approve of Putin’s campaign of murder of journalists?]
    No but I do not approve of the US murder of people without trial, nor of the many “accidental” deaths of journalists that took place in Afghanistan/Iraq. Now while I assume that Putin was behind murders of journalists it is actually NOT proven so we should keep open a smidgeon of doubt. So sure Putin scores a great big negative on this (say minus 10),the US scores a negative too (say minus 3). If they lock up whistle blowers or take action against Assange etc then the US will more more heavily negative.

    [Do you approve of Putin’s homophobia campaign?]
    BW as I grew up not knowing homosexulality existed and living here in Australia is a totally homophobic society, the fact that Putin (and Russia) is like Australia circa 1965, seems pretty minor in the scale of things. Rights of minority groups are important but not when people are hungry or terrified or there is imminent threat of warfare etc. It is great that Australia has progressive approaches to gay rights but it is still a “recent” issue in real terms and therefore it does not have a major impact on my views. Put it this way if children working down coal mines scores a -10, slavery a -12, people working for starvation wages a minus 8, oppression of minorities a minus 5,women’s in-equality a minus 4, atrocious OHS conditions a minus 3, no universal health care a minus 2, gay rights and homophobia probably sits about minus 0.25.

    [Do you approve of Putin’s grab of the Crimea?]
    Yes. Crimea was Russian territorty for more that 200 years and the Crimeans were not consulted when they were handed to Ukraine administratively , or when they were force to unite with Ukraine. Just as I support Scotland’s right to self determination so too I support Crimea’s right to CHOOSE to become part of Russia. There is NO serious suggestion that the vote was rigged or [people forced to choose Russia. They are Russian speaking, ethnic Russians, who apparently have not been economically prospering as part of the Ukraine. It is a no brainer

    [Do you approve of Putin’s use of gas blackmail to force the Ukraine to dismember itself?]
    It is Russia’s gas. They can sell it to whomsoever they please. Just like it is our iron ore and we can sell it to whomever we choose. Ukraine was given very generous discounts on their gas by Russia, as a goodwill gesture. If you kick your benefactor in the head well what do you expect? Europe should have had more sense than to encourage the Ukrainian coup.

  6. guytaur:

    I don’t trust Newman any further than I could throw him. He’s always struck me as highly untrustworthy.

  7. dave

    Singapore is so small, geographically, that their military airplaines fly around and around in depressingly small circles…

    ATM we have excellent relations with Singapore, which I appreciate. But Singapore has absolutely no depth in terms of defence and would be impossible to resupply. Apart from anything else, it still depends on Malaysia for a significant amount of its water supplies.

    Finally, in any regional war, its trading economy would be finished almost straight away.

    Unfortunately if we go with Malaysia and Indonesia we would probably have to go without Singapore. There is simply too much fear and loathing involved.

  8. [I don’t recall Gillard.Rudd or Bishop ever saying piblically how bad the Chinese record on Human Rights is and how deplorable…least of all to their faces ]

    Both Rudd and Gillard did, either publicly or to “their faces”. JBishop chose instead to criticise the Labor PMs for for raising the issue of human rights with Chinese leaders.

  9. deblonay @ 374

    I don’t recall Gillard.Rudd or Bishop ever saying piblically how bad the Chinese record on Human Rights is and how deplorable…least of all to their faces

    Howard tried doing that in his first year or two and soon had to beat a hasty retreat when it began to affect trade, finally settling for having the third assistant to the DFAT work experience boy sternly waving a finger at his Chinese opposite number in a windowless soundproof room somewhere and being called a capitalist running dog in return.

    Rudd at least did raise human rights directly with the Chinese leadership, both as PM and while FM.

  10. Boerwar@444

    I see that Deblonay has P O Qued which is what he ALWAYS does when confronted with the rather horrible reality of Putin’s Russia.

    Tag Team Bemused has taken over the Internal Socialist AgitProp Australia Cell’s cudgels using his usual courteous and polite style. So, here is for you Bemused::

    Do you approve of Putin’s campaign of murder of journalists?

    Do you approve of Putin’s homophobia campaign?

    Do you approve of Putin’s grab of the Crimea?

    Do you approve of Putin’s use of gas blackmail to force the Ukraine to dismember itself?

    Four simple yes or no options.

    I defend deblonay in the face of your total dishonesty and, as you well know, he is an old codger and I don’t think your persistent harassment of him does you any credit.

    I think your verbaling of him is particularly obnoxious.

  11. debionay

    How forgetful. If nothing else you should know the furore caused by Rudd doing that in Mandarin at Beijing University direct to students

  12. daretotread

    I acknowledge and appreciate that you are actually addressing the issues I raised. The points you raise in response are, IMHO, contestable.

    In general, I agree with your view that many, if not all, of the players on all sides have behaved badly at some time or other to get the Ukraine where it has gotten to.

    Your approach is in sharp contrast with Deblonay who is totally silent on the issues relating to Putin’s behaviour. It is Deblonay’s completely one-sided view of history and current affairs that is offensive.

  13. the multiple murders of groups of people by drone that still continues….because they are possibly in their view Al Qaeda…the odd wedding party, villagers and so forth an acceptable cost…according to the USA since it continues on its way the same….with drones killing people from a distance….because of who they might be.

    No nod to guilt innocence evidence trial and so forth.

    The US has a policy of murdering people who are suspicious looking….just not on American soil (yet)

    Because somebody is critical of the US over their fomenting of the Ukraine crisis does not mean they agree with the track record or behaviour of other parties that may be involved. That is simply straw man manufacture to vent anger because their is no other argument.

    With regard China, yeh Rudd criticised them on their own soil and basically to their faces. And told them that this is what he was gonna do.

    As for China causing trouble with Vietnam, I am told where they put their oil rig is unlikely to have oil, and there was no reason to suspect oil at that particular location. It was entirely a proactive exercise to gauge the reaction of the region and the USA. Especially given the US in action plan of causing Russia troubles and thus forcing them closer to China….

  14. “@GeorgeBludger: Just watched the footage of the students “pushing” poor Julie Bishop. Good lord, I’ve copped worse by angry grannies at a market sale”

  15. [ Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 6:05 pm | Permalink

    dave

    Singapore is so small, geographically, that their military airplaines fly around and around in depressingly small circles…]

    They rotate their squadrons constantly for training – here in Australia – WA and NT, the US and in Spain. With 90 they can do so.

    [ Unfortunately if we go with Malaysia and Indonesia we would probably have to go without Singapore. There is simply too much fear and loathing involved. ]

    And yet much on the loot is in Singaporean Banks.

    [ Finally, in any regional war, its trading economy would be finished almost straight away. ]

    Cunning buggers have so much investments and assets elsewhere, including Australia power generation, telco, almost a stock exchange, airlines – all sorts of stuff and the same throughout Asia and elsewhere.

    They controversially bought Taskin’s Thai Telco and operate the major Chinese built Port in southern Sri Lanka for example.

    All the while they are very close to the US as well.

  16. And if you talk about homophobia and abortion rights…just look at the commentary of various Congressmen, Governors and so forth in the USA not to mention laws of some states.

    Russia is pretty bad as with many other countries…but the US is no shining light.

    And as before just because somebody attacks what the US has done with the Ukraine does not mean these critics adopt all the beliefs of their opponents. This is Bush ‘for us or against us’ doctrine.

  17. TP

    Wrong on the US. Why? They have a Constitution the bigots have come unstuck on.

    At least try to be factual in your comments.

  18. Bishop – I have watched the video twice and thought that she looked as though she was enjoying it very much. Prissy is probably jealous!

  19. T.P

    [Because somebody is critical of the US over their fomenting of the Ukraine crisis does not mean they agree with the track record or behaviour of other parties that may be involved. That is simply straw man manufacture to vent anger because their is no other argument.]

    Silence on Putin is tacit acceptance that who he, what he represents and what he does is irrelevant to the Crimea and the Ukraine. You are hypothesising a tango done by a single dancer. That is not what will decide the future of the Crimea or the Ukraine.

    What both Deblonay and yourself are perpetuating is an unbalanced assessment based on four legs good, two legs bad. In this case Four Legs Putin is a murdering, homophobic imperialist willing to use gas and military blackmail to deny the Ukraine its democratic rights.

    Whether you like it or not, and you clearly don’t, Putin’s behaviour is not a strawman but central to understanding the Ukraine’s future. The really interesting test is the absolutely steadfast refusal of either yourself or Deblonay to discuss Putin.

    It’s as if you believe that things keep sort of keep happening around Putin and all of a sudden the Crimea is part of Russia by osmosis.

    [As for China causing trouble with Vietnam, I am told where they put their oil rig is unlikely to have oil, and there was no reason to suspect oil at that particular location.]

    Let me guess. A pal of Xi told you that.

    [It was entirely a proactive exercise to gauge the reaction of the region and the USA.]

    This may well be. Have a look at the nine boundary ‘markers’ inserted in the South China Sea and the way in which they overlap the continental shelves of five other nations. What you might have commented here is that China is aggressively and unilaterally asserting military dominance over contested international resources. But my guess is that you won’t do that. We all know who has four legs in this case.

    [Especially given the US in action plan of causing Russia troubles and thus forcing them closer to China….]

    Lordy, lordy. That would be simply terrible. It would be EIGHT legs good, two legs bad.

  20. dave
    I agree that it would be good for Singapore to be in. I just doubt whether Malaysia and Indonesia would agree.

  21. [Did anyone hear Prissie Pyne ranting about the privileged students this morning?]

    Yeah, what a tosser. I hope they tar & feather him.

  22. Labour of Love@480

    Bishop – I have watched the video twice and thought that she looked as though she was enjoying it very much. Prissy is probably jealous!

    Yep – she was blocked a bit at the top of the stairs but her security and others got her quickly through and the main doors closed – she didn’t seem too fussed.

  23. [“@GeorgeBludger: Just watched the footage of the students “pushing” poor Julie Bishop. Good lord, I’ve copped worse by angry grannies at a market sale”]

    Bishop experienced no more than someone boarding a peak hour train in Tokyo, Paris or Sydney Town Hall station.

    But then again, neither Bishop nor Pyne has probably ever had to mix with the plebs on public transport. Abbott certainly hates public transport.

  24. [Thomas. Paine.
    Posted Saturday, May 17, 2014 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    And if you talk about homophobia and abortion rights…just look at the commentary of various Congressmen, Governors and so forth in the USA not to mention laws of some states.]

    Classic false unicorn.

    If you are trying to tell me that being gay is illegal in the US, that promoting gay rights is illegal in the US, that uniformed member of the state harrass and bash gays without hindrance in the US, that journalists in the US are routinely murdered if they disagree with Obama, and that Obama jails opponents BECAUSE they are his opponents, then you are engaging in a desperate false equivalence.

    But I will say one thing for you. You are edging around to admitting sort of by vague inference that Putin is a homophobic anti-democratic imperialistic murderer.

    [Russia is pretty bad as with many other countries…but the US is no shining light.]

    Same as for above.

    [And as before just because somebody attacks what the US has done with the Ukraine does not mean these critics adopt all the beliefs of their opponents.]

    Nice try but no potato here, either, Tovarisch. It has not been just a matter of attacking the US has it, comrade? There has been a steady stream of links ALL of which support EVERY action taken by Putin, his Spetsnatz, his fifth columnists and so on and so forth. Nary a word about condemning Crimean gays to the tender mercy of Putin. Nothing from you. Nothing from Deblonay.

    It is as if you have some part of the brain that erases certain realities. You call these realities ‘straw men’. Then you say it is bad in other countries or in the US. Unicorns.

    This is not other countries. It is not the US. It is Putin and Russia grabbing parts of the Ukraine. Erased from your reality. Just like that.

    [This is Bush ‘for us or against us’ doctrine.]

    Tovarisch, Tovarisch, come, come. May I suggest that Deblonay has waged a persistent and comprehensive campaign of running commentary and providing links to authors, journalista and commentators whose starting point, middle point and end point is four legs good, two legs bad?

    Like you, Deblonay has still to understand that Putin’s victory in the Crimea, that the split up of the Ukrainian state, and the conversion of Rump Ukraine to a Russian vassal state is the result of Putin’s imperialistic, anti-democratic drives and will, moreover, have vile consequences for hundreds of thousands of gays?

    In other words, you guys are doing a Bush but from the other side of Bush’s coin?

  25. dave

    Since the “Malayan Emergency” Singapore had a kiwi base that included NZSAS troops based there. So keen were they to have them the government offered to pay for them when in the 1980’s NZ decided to withdraw them and close down the base.

  26. Boerwar@483

    dave
    I agree that it would be good for Singapore to be in. I just doubt whether Malaysia and Indonesia would agree.

    Depends who is trying to push them around – one main candidate really.

    The other thing is Indonesia is going through a changing of the guard and the same cannot be too far off for Malaysia as well – we don’t know how that will pan out.

    We do know how Indonesia has dealt with its own citizens of Chinese background in the past, even very recent past although ‘Chinese’ in Indonesia these days is generally code for Christen as in killings, burning down churches and the like.

    In the past it meant communist of course.

    Also interesting is Singapore’s current PM, Lee Hsien Loong was Chief of its Defence Force – all part of the Harry Lee plan and preparation including Commonwealth and US Defence Staff Colleges etc.

  27. All politicians, when pushed around, try to look either dignified or amused. (Except, apparently, in Turkey where the Prime Minister recently punched a protestor who got too close to him)

    The students have provided an excellent opportunity for Pyne to draw attention away from his major, historical and systemic assault on public education values.

    Every bit of MSM attention devoted to Ms Bishop being pushed and shoved around is a welcome distraction for the Coalition.

  28. [Bishop experienced no more than someone boarding a peak hour train in Tokyo, Paris or Sydney Town Hall station.]

    She looked more amused at the attention than harassed or bothered by it IMO. I can only assume Pyne chose to draw attention to the protest (as well as drawing Shorten into the fray) as a deflection attempt from the flak they’ve copped over their first budget.

    Pyne is an immature boxhead of the first order. Still playing crass student politics, even after all the years he’s been in parliament.

  29. dave

    Yep. The subtext is always going to be race.

    Singapore we can survive being neutral.

    But we need the 300 million people in Malaysia and Indonesia, located where they are, to be on our side. That is enough people for even India and China to think twice about.

  30. poroti@490

    dave

    Since the “Malayan Emergency” Singapore had a kiwi base that included NZSAS troops based there. So keen were they to have them the government offered to pay for them when in the 1980′s NZ decided to withdraw them and close down the base.

    poroti

    I think the 1980’s was around the time Australia’s Squadron of fighters was withdrawn as well.

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