The Sunday News Limited tabloids have published the first poll since the budget, courtesy of Galaxy. Details from the reporting are sketchy, but it is presumably a phone-plus-online poll of around 1400 respondents, assuming it followed the same routine as the previous Galaxy poll a fortnight ago. Two-party preferred is at 53-47 in favour of Labor, up from 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for the Coalition (down one), 38% for Labor (up one) and a new high of 8% for Palmer United (up two). No result is available as yet for the Greens. (UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that the Greens are down a point to 10%, and that the poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1399.)
With regards to the budget, only 41% rate it as good for the economy versus 46% for not good, while fully 74% say they expect to be worse off against only 11% for better off. The former set of numbers are in stark contrast to the Howard government’s first tough budget after it came to power in 1996, which according to Newspoll was rated good for the economy by 59% and bad by only 22%, with 6% opting for neither good nor bad (an option not available from Galaxy). The only other budget since 1995 to have scored a net negative rating from Newspoll on this measure was last year’s, at 35% for good, 37% for bad and 7% for neither).
The results on impact on respondents’ financial position resemble Newspoll’s findings for the politically disastrous budget that John Dawkins brought down after Labor’s election victory in 1993, which had 4% for better off, 74% for worse off and 17% for no change (the latter option again not available from Galaxy). However, whereas the results from 1993 were accompanied by a collapse in support for the Keating government, this poll has two-party preferred unchanged on pre-budget polling.
[One would reasonably expect, given the last Newspoll was 53-47 that, given the avalanche of negative reaction to the budget, the next Newspoll should be 55-45.]
Nope. It may be , but it shouldn’t be.
The Tory State Premiers obviously see votes in attacking the Federal Libs. Attacking Canberra has often been a common ploy.how sincerely pissed off they are is difficult to judge.
None of them will come out before an impending election and lend their name to a rise in the GST. Political suicide. However, if Newman and Baird retain government we may well see a different approach to the GST.
Isn’t it logically the only place these Tories will get revenue from?
I don’t know if this convinces everyone else, but it works for me.
Isn’t the point of “fixing the budget emergency” to *avoid* having to make harsh and terrible cuts to essential government services like health and education and the social safety net?
Good add that by the ALP.
No spin, direct and to the point.
Abbott getting done over by his own words.
Simon Katich@546
The tories have bypassed the steps you recommend – with their long held ideological goal of destruction – destruction and nothing less.
They have held the same, often unstated position for over 40 years – destruction of universal health. They did it once and and are try again now.
They are now telling voters that they heard something different from what they said – what they promised.
[ I do think there are many areas in the system that can be enhanced and costs reduced without loss of service that dont get addressed because of various interests. ]
No doubt – but there must come a time when services suffer as well – cuts have limits and consequences.
Di Nataly invited Shepherd, the CoA Chair during senate estimates to do precisely that – but be backed off at a hundred miles an hour – because he didn’t have the facts – his little committee hadn’t bothered getting them – but that didn’t stop them from drawing conclusions and making recommendation based on what – the original position always intended – of course.
Ruawake, why not? Why would there be a 1 or 2 percent movement away from the government. They have pissed of a large section of the over 55s?
Signs like Liar King (Abbotts head on a Lion) are going to stick with people.
Not a bad nick name either. Pity it can’t be used in Parliament
Sorry, why wouldn’t there be a 1 or 2 percent move away?
[Abbott getting done over by his own words.]
There is almost an embarrassment of riches to work with.
mimhoff
Yes except the government has slashed 80 billion for Hospitals & Schools
Not touched the generous tax concessions which allow a person with a million dollars worth of investment income to claim a part pension
Introduced new pension pay scheme linked to CPI which will see the value of the pensions fall over time
Increasing the rate in which University fees are paid back
If we really need to make changes and yes I do think a case could be made based on Treasury modelling but this budget seems to do very little in terms of addressing the leakage occurring at the top while placing speed bumps on these at the lower end.
[Ruawake, why not? Why would there be a 1 or 2 percent movement away from the government. They have pissed of a large section of the over 55s?]
It all mat be true, but Budgets rarely change polls, the damage or stimulating is done in the week prior when kites fly everyday.
We have had one post budget poll, its showed the ALP ahead but really no meaningful change.
I would be happy with 56-44 from Newspoll, but I also realise it would mean nothing except a morale booster/kicker.
[Signs like Liar King (Abbotts head on a Lion) are going to stick with people.
Not a bad nick name either. Pity it can’t be used in Parliament]
It’s a bit generic, though, don’t you think? It doesn’t apply to Abbott any more than it would to Rudd, or Howard, or “Male politician I don’t like”.
mimhoff
The liar king image has Abbott’s face on it.
As for how the Abbott Government being receoved by the public is as the tweeter asked.
When was the last time thousands took to the streets over a budget?
Guytaur
That is a pretty picture
MB
Best looking Rainbow I could find. Glad you like it.
@Bishop64: Prime Minister Tony Abbott ’lied his way to power’, Melbourne Budget protest told http://t.co/iiqFVaW3xP
I can’t understand what everyone is whinging about. Our PM set it out neatly this morning
[The prime minister insists voters should have expected the sweeping budget cuts unveiled last week, despite his often repeated pre-election promise that there would be “no cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to the GST”.
Focusing on a different pre-election mantra, Tony Abbott told the ABC’s Insiders program people had been clearly “on notice” about what was coming.
“You might remember the mantra – it was stop the boats, repeal the carbon tax, build the roads of the 21st century and get the budget back under control,” he said.
“So people, I think, were on notice that we were going to do what was necessary to ensure that we were not being a burden on our children and grandchildren,” he said, and the Coalition had done “precisely” what it had promised.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/18/tony-abbott-voters-should-have-expected-my-budgets-sweeping-cuts
@Vic_Premier: “In 6 weeks #Vic will have $200ml less from Commonwealth than we expected and were promised” Premier COAG #SpringSt http://t.co/qMbyN9gPH8
retweetd by Senator Penny Wong
Guytaur
No, it’s The Lying King!
Dee
Oops. Sorry. Liar was stuck in my head for some reason.
Guytaur
Reckon it’s pretty good!
Would have loved to have seen signs throwing ‘Juliar’ back in their faces with ‘Joliar’.
QandA promo has me wondering how much security will the ABC have to deal with protests?
I think they are going to need it
Dee
Yes that would have been fun to see 🙂
Especially if it was by someone like Dr Phelps or Meredith Bergman
Oh good the 24 footage from Sydney was lying king and phony tony
There will be furious efforts at damage control going on between the Coalition premiers and the Feds.
I suggest that trade-offs galore will be being explored.
My suggestion for a possible outcome:
(1) education and health cuts to be postponed for one year
(2) taxation white paper to be speeded up so that it will take weeks, perhaps even months
(3) GST growth and defined proportion of income tax to be put on the table.
@370 briefly
One thing the Greens have done differently from the Democrats is having successfully build up their base in all 3 layers of government: Federal, State & Local. They also have a base where I believe about 6-7% are hardcore base followers and this number might rise a bit with the increased youth vote (though cancelled out by an aging population).
@Centre
Palmer has to be careful in trying to get his own base of followers, otherwise he might be in danger of losing support like Pauline Hanson. One not good thing is the media trying to paint him as a richer version of Hanson.
As a Liar King, there is no comparison between Abbott and any of his predecessors. Most politicans make an effort to keep promises, even unwise ones. Most political promises are intended to be kept, even if the oromise make is hoping things will work so they can keep them. But Abbott got government by fraud. He said whatever he thought the elecrorate wanted to hear, with no intention of keeping them. He had a Thatcherite* program that he did not tell the voters about. He made no attempt to sell his program.
This Budget should be shredded. It borders on criminal, especially the $80 billion sprung on the States.
Keep the hit on high income and the fuel excise, chuck the rest.
* but Thatcher did not try to dismantle the NHS.
$20 billion for medical research.
Coincidence that Abbott is sponsored by a medical research company?
Joe Holiar than thou!
AA
Is that link fair dinkum?
Does he really have a promotion for a company on his vest?
What Abbott actually said before the Election.
[Elect the Coalition on Saturday and this is what you will get. We will build a stronger economy so that everyone can get ahead. We will scrap the carbon tax, we will end the waste. We will stop the boats and we will build the roads of the 21st century because I want to be known as an infrastructure prime minister. ]
He is a compulsive liar it seems.
and the fuel excise?
NO
Vietnamese strike back at China over drilling in waters claimed by Vietnam –
[ Over 3000 Chinese Evacuated (By Boat & Plane) As Vietnam’s Anti-China Riots Escalate; Taiwan Also On “High Alert”
China began evacuating hundreds of its nationals from Vietnam (via at least 2 planes and 5 ships) as the anti-China protests have become increasingly deadly following Beijing’s attempt to deploy an oil drill in Vietnamese dispuited waters (detailed here, here, here, and here)…
*CHINA SENDING 5 SHIPS TO VIETNAM TO EVACUATE CHINESE:
XINHUA
*HUNDREDS OF VIETNAMESE SECURITY IN CENTRAL HO CHI MINH CITY
*VIETNAM PRIME MINISTER ISSUES DIRECTIVE TO PREVENT PROTESTS
*VIETNAM GOVT TAKES ACTION TO PREVENT RIOTS: BINH
Hundreds of police and security forces are in central Ho Chi Minh city and the Chinese consulate is under heavy guard. Tensions across the ASEAN region are growung as Taiwan is on “high alert” but the bloc’s inability to craft a united response to Chinese aggression signals a further decline in its regional clout. ]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-17/over-3000-chinese-evacuated-boat-plane-vietnams-anti-china-riots-escalate-taiwan-als
Guytaur
rainbows should have blue and purple 😛 go green the whole hog 🙁
Newspoll?
Speak the truth – we want 58/42 😯
Centre
The rainbow in the photo has all those colours. I can not help it if all you see is green.
One thing Palmer and therefore PUP have over the One Nation phenomenon is the lack of a strongly negative image.
Hanson was rightly pilloried for her narrow, racist perspective.
Palmer has no such baggage.
I think he can’t be trusted and is playing his populist politics as hard as he knows how to in order to further his own interests, but being a Palmer/PUP supporter doesn’t attract the ridicule of being Hanson/One Nation supporter.
I still don’t think PUP is likely to be a long term force, but it hasn’t started out with the same negatives that One Nation did.
Rabbott the sloganeer chose language that the majority of voters could understand.
Oh, remember. Rabbott talks to the voters on a level they can understand. 😆
WoW! Seems the voters didn’t understand a word he said.
dave
There are around a million chinese in Vietnam, depending on how you define them.
Trade is worth about $25 billion a year.
If there were to be a severe rupture, the big loser would be the Vietnamese.
I imagine that Central Committee hoses will shortly be unrolled.
@zoe_indai: #marchinmay #blockthebudget awesome sign! Very very worrying. http://t.co/IcvIeHVHOY
g @585
POPPYCOCK
centre
😆
Palmer has to be careful in trying to get his own base of followers, otherwise he might be in danger of losing support like Pauline Hanson.
One Nation shrivelled because John Howard, in the words on an editorial in The Australian, ‘addressed the concerns’ of people attracted to One Nation, starting with the Tampa. That, plus One Nation fell apart when it started having a few successes. Palmer is a good deal smarter than Hanson.
Maybe Palmer will be a home for Liberals who can’t stomach Abbott and, more generally, don’t supportca hard right agenda. The current Government can’t ‘address his concerns’ if thats the case, but it will still harvest most of his oreferences.
The immediate issue seems to be the cut of funding for state pensioner concessions. I once worked at centre link and people would move heaven and earth to get that precious card so they could get cheap transport, rate rebates and electricity discounts…If the states cut these from July 1 there will be a huge outpouring of outrage…
Which will put Alan Jones and his ilk in a very interesting position- not to mention the state LNP govts.
Of interest is that the new NSW transport system – the opal is now available for every class of passengers except pensioners- I wonder if they knew this was coming..?
The PUP needs a catchy name that makes people want to vote for it.
I wish Labor would change its name. Who wants labour?
Hi reporting in from Heathrow, waiting on plane to Athens. Great flights from Australia not too bad a shower works wonders.
The big test coming up the plane to Athens now only allows1 1/2 hours to catch Croatian plane, tried to checkin on lime, they don’t do on line check in on this flight so fingers crossed as next plane on Tuesday
Still happy about Galaxy Poll hope for even better from Nielsen and Newspoll 🙂
Swiftlet farming is a rapidly growing rural enterprise in Vietnam.
Since a lot of the ‘farms’ are in the top storey of two-storey dwelling houses, human/bird interactions are systemic, and transmission of a pandemic virus is, as who should say, a concern:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Yen-Viet-swallow-birds-nest/234688279929136?sk=info
mari
huge floods in bosnia and serbia.
take care
we will end the waste what waste? Pensions? Health? Education? It seems Abbott neant all of tge above.
Don’t fly Malaysian, mari 😀
[Vietnamese strike back at China…]
The Vietnamese have a good track record in standing up to very large powers.