With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.
On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.
Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.
Rex
I thought Hedley Thomas did a great job in the reporting of Haneef. But, then again, I didn’t realise the reason he did so was to support Labor, at Rupert’s indulgence.
Once Rupert Murdoch had turned against Labor, then Thomas’s reports lost all their meaning. Just propaganda. Which, I accept, could have been levelled against him about the Haneef report, by Howard.
All the stuff about Gillard is the dead-hand of Rupert. Once he gets what he wants do you seriously think that he’ll continue to pursue it? It’ll be dropped like a hot potato that was always cold in the first place.
crikey whitey
Abbott was a rugby union prop back in the day. Cauliflower ears were an occupational hazard of life in the scrum. His boxing would not have helped.
That discussion of the Mint reminded me of something funny I recalled from years ago.
Found this.
Will’s Story About a Wheelbarrow Theft Wheelbarrow funny story – joke Portsmouth
Here’s a story set just after the second world (1939-45) war at Portsmouth dockyard.
One day Ministry of Defence policeman [Mod plod] stopped a worker who was walking out of the dockyard gates pushing a wheelbarrow with a suspicious looking package in it. The Mod plod opened the package and found it contained nothing but some old bits of rubbish, sawdust and floor-sweepings.
The next day he stopped the same worker who was again pushing a wheelbarrow containing a suspicious looking package. Once more it contained nothing of any value.
The same thing happened several days on the trot, until the policeman finally said, ‘OK, I give up. I know you are up to something, but I just can’t tell what. Please, I promise not to arrest you, but put me out of my misery; tell me what you are stealing.’
‘Wheelbarrows, ‘smiled the worker, ‘I’m stealing wheelbarrows.’
Wheelbarrow Thefts from the 1950s
Will and Guy wonder if this wheelbarrow scam is a British affair, because Michael Wilkinson writes:
My Father told me about the wheelbarrow thefts back in the late 1950s whilst he was a submariner based in Portsmouth dockyard.
It started during WW2
In those days horses were used a lot to haul carts around and the wheelbarrow liberator used to collect the horse droppings and take them off site in a wheelbarrow.
After a few searches the “ModPlod” got used to him and he continued to take wheelbarrows for quite sometime.
The theft was only discovered on his retirement.
At least that was the way my Dad told it.
Wheelbarrow Thefts in the 1960s
I just thought that you might like to know that the wheelbarrow theft happened at the company Short Brothers and Harland, in Belfast, in 1961.
My father, who was a researcher there in the missiles division, was present, by chance, on the day the man was stopped and challenged.
It was the security man on the gate who suddenly realised that he had always seen the galvanised wheelbarrows going out of and never back into the yard.
The ‘Fred’ man (in Will’s story) was called Howard. Amazingly he was not dismissed, but was put on a job where he was watched all the time. He also had wages stopped to pay back the estimated 60 wheelbarrows’ value
http://www.guy-sports.com/humor/stories/story_wheelbarrow.htm
If you have a blood pressure problem, WARNING, don’t read this article!
[Kevin Fuller went to Canberra looking for answers for his son’s death, but says what he got was ”disgraceful behaviour” from Kevin Rudd.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/23559455/rudd-disgraced-himself-installers-father/
kezza2@1674
Ummmm … dead people speak to you?
Retweeted by Jason Clare MP
John Bruce @JohnFBruce 49m
#Lateline tonight: @steveciobo V @JasonClareMP … the Budget battlelines. @Lateline 10:30
The three budget amigos
Wingnut(broken promises)Abbott,Foghorn Leghorn Hockey(habitual liar)and last but not least Colonel Klink Cormann(little old Cigar smoking me.What a start to a front bench and unfortunately it just gets worse.
[ Best thing Labor could do is give Clive gentle support
Clive has the capacity to cut through & get right up Tonnys’ nose ]
Palmer is no friend of Labor and will turn on Labor in the blink of an eyelid.
While abbott is an enemy in common and looks like being for sometime to come, the last thing Labor needs is to get too close to such a loud mouthed self interest pushing lose cannon.
The way this needs to work is Labor keeps its space from Palmer and his antics.
If Palmer wants to vote with Labor with no strings attached so be it – but lets be clear – Palmer will do so because he sees benefit for Palmer in it.
Palmer has been a tory all his political life – no matter what he says or does…..
bemused
Re Mary Hardy.
Just illustrating how long I’ve been in the industry. Fucker!
Poroti, thanks.
But the brain damage thing?
Cruelty.
Today.
Lyndal Curtis:
Would you say the Govt’s Budget was sensible, brave,crazy brave or just crazy?
Simon Banks (Hawker Britton):
I think its deliberate and malicious. First of all it’s built, literally, on hundreds and hundreds of broken promises and lies.
I think the VERY best thing that Labor could do would be to set Palmer up with a couple of qualified Climate scientists in a locked room for a day, so they could counter all his objections to anthropogenic Global Warming.
Palmer believes most of it is caused by “Nature”. I guess he means volcanoes and the like, with perhaps regular tidal and ocean current changes, or sunspots thrown in.
It would behove Labor to have him set right, by respectable, impeccable men and/or women of science, for once and for all.
It wold be a relatively cheap investment of time and resources to bring Clive into the Climate Change fold.
Deep down underneath it all Palmer is rational.
rua
If you are there, Beau Henry replaces Albert Kelly, he’s a good player, they’re still at good odds.
*have a good one
Dee @ 1704
9 just ran an almost identical story here. I’m pretty sick of it.
[By the time the MRRT had come into play, Rudd had lost his mojo. It was gorn. Totally.
So, instead of having a climate change policy, instead of being humanitarian towards asylum seekers, instead of being pro-active, the government led by Rudd was being reactive.
Played right into the neo-rightwing of the LNP.
Luckily Gillard rescued us from this shit 3 years ago, despite a rearguard offensive by a wounded Rudd.]
This is blatant dishonesty. You are either stupid, willingly ignorant or just writing history to suit your bile.
I do recall Rudd/Wong had worked out an agreement with Turnbull who thus got knifed at the 11th hour, I do recall the Greens voting with the Coalition.
Also the threat to Rudd from Gillard/Swan & their group that there would be trouble for Rudd if he DIDN’T shelve the CPRS.
Even so he was working on a further CPRS at the time of being knifed. Whence Gillard went right back to square one with a citizens assembly to ensure there would be NO action on this issue (until later forced by the Greens).
The MRRT….well I wonder what Union and its mates in the industry were happy bring about Rudd’s demise there? Strange that wasn’t it also a Swan idea. And even as it was by the time of his knifing the public were getting behind Rudd on it, despite the mining industry attack on Rudd.
AND the Oceanic Viking, well we know what happened there with the media, especially Murdoch media, daily saturation of negative media, mobile phones given to people on the boat. AND a No Win situation regarding the issue. No matter who was PM in this situation there was no easy way out.
Rudd in the end with the Oceanic Viking and the Pink Bats issue decided to try and clear the issue altogether so it didn’t continue to suck up media and public attention, because the government had other policies it wanted to bring to public view. Thus the Beattie tactic, that simply didn’t work for Rudd as it did for Beatie, and was the wrong tactic.
I disagreed with Rudd on the Oceanic Viking at the time, and agreed that the Beattie tactic was the wrong way to go, it would have been better to get agressive and stick up for the issue.
Be that as it may, every PM makes a bunch of those sorts of ‘media/perception’ miscaculations, Howard would have made hundreds of them, and Keating as well most likely.
It is part and parcel of the job and is not critical, as it can if it plays into an already held negative perception as it did with Gillard.
No Rudd’s problem was of course the leaking, the threats from within over policy, the plan to knife him and bring his popularity down…conveniently forgotten by many here…but wikileaks kindly informed us that it was a long held plan.
So After Rudd what did we get….No climate change policy at all, totally piss weak change to MRRT, Timor leste…ffs what a total embarrassment and joke.
The planned leaking, story fabrication, undermining of Rudd from within and without was the only thing that affected the public’s perception of Rudd’s mojo. AND when they knifed him they totally destroyed whatever mojo Labor possessed.
SO less with the dishonesty and more with even handed honesty hey?
• • 580
crikey whitey
Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 9:31 pm | Permalink
confessions 545 Warren Mundine & Elizabeth Henderson
‘Does Gerard Henderson’s daughter have any sort of public profile of her own? The assumptions made about Mundine because of who he’s married to remind me of the Piers-Bolt digs about Bill Shorten because of who his wife is’.
A certain commonality is in evidence here. Cannot assume, though.
http://au.linkedin.com/in/elizabethhenderson?trk=pub-pbmap
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/nyunggai-warren-mundine/58/973/769?trk=pub-pbmap
Aah. Yep.
https://www.google.com.a/search?q=warren+mundine+marriage+image
And:
Warren Mundine : The White Sheep of the Family?
http://www.kooriweb.org/foley/essays/tracker/tracker26.html
The latter is instructive.
[1643
zoidlord
@Just Me/1637
We can still bring back the real NBN before it is sold off at next election (or a DD), most of the infrastructure won’t be done till closer till next election.]
That is true. Nothing is final until the contracts have survived any legal challenge.
[ SO less with the dishonesty and more with even handed honesty hey? ]
I will if you will!
confessions
Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 9:44 pm | Permalink
crikey:
When I asked if Elizabeth Henderson (thanks for giving us her name btw, as it was feeling odd continually referring to her as Gerard’s daughter) had a public profile of her own, I meant in a political public commentary way.
Her LinkedIn profile is her professional CV, and not necessarily indicative of her political leanings. And certainly not in terms of indigenous affairs.
Given that Mundine routinely is trashed here for being married to her for no other reason than she is ‘Gerard’s Daughter’, I’d expected to see either ‘Serial Killer’ or an equally repulsive yet recognisable descriptor leap out when her name is searched for.
Thomas Paine,
[wikileaks kindly informed us that it was a long held plan.]
What is that a reference to?
BB
[Deep down underneath it all Palmer is rational.]
Not on climate change, he’s not.
If I have to hear one more time his absolute bullshit about 97% nature versus 3% man-made, I’ll throw up.
And what can we do about nature?
Like, throw a blanket over the next volcanic eruption.
He’s quite crazy-mad, and nothing will convince otherwise, about the effects and the affects of CC.
Apart from that, he’s quite a savvy political operator.
As I said, after the last election, Labor had to work quick smart to get the non-aligned Senators on-board.
Too late. Palmer beat them to it.
And he’s reaping the benefit of that right now.
Labor was far too slow.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/tim-costello-advocates-broadening-gst?CMP=twt_gu
crikey whitey
Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 10:02 pm | Permalink
Confessions. And yet…..from Gary Foley.
‘Since then two major events appear to have sealed Warren’s arrival as the new Aboriginal darling of Australian Right-wing politics. The first was his marriage to Elizabeth Henderson, who is the daughter of Gerard Henderson, conservative political commentator and a former chief-of-staff to John Howard, and the second is his new political marriage to Tony Abbott’s new indigenous advisory body.
Warren met Elizabeth three years ago at a function at the right-wing think tank, the Sydney Institute. At the time both were married to other people.
Of the end of his second marriage, the devout Catholic Warren has said, “I never thought of myself as a bloke who was attractive to women but after I became president [of the ALP] it was like I became sexy to some people…I don’t really get it. But I was getting offers. And the ego got the better of me and I took one of those offers, and I got what I deserved, which was a divorce.”
In February this year 450 close personal friends turned up at Luna Park in Sydney (an appropriately Monty Pythonesque venue) for the wedding of Warren and Elizabeth.
Sadly I have to report to readers that my invitation appears to have been lost in the mail, but I am told that among those who were in attendance were Tony Abbott, Twiggy Forrest, Jenny Macklin and Marcia Langton along with a large contingent of other right-wing luminaries and their acolytes.
The mere thought of the business and networking opportunities on that day just boggles the mind…’
And if you are in doubt about leanings, surely the images of the company suggest something.
Oh and bear in mind that Shorten divorced his Liberal wife, Mundine divorced his Labor wife.
Wingnut Abbotts own double dissolution,shoving his own head up his own arske twice and pulling it out once.
I think the only relevant term is BASTARDS.
[States have already committed money to preventive health programs the federal government had agreed to help fund, but has now scrapped in the budget.
States have been left to figure out whether to try to make up the shortfall themselves or scrap the programs, while hospitals are warning cuts in the budget will lead to longer waits in the emergency room and for elective surgery in the short-term, and a delay in building wards and buying new medical equipment in the long-term.
The budget revealed the national partnerships agreement on preventive health (NPAPH) with states and territories, due to expire in 2017, would be scrapped to save the commonwealth $367.9m. Funding guarantees from 2011 were also axed, reducing the money flowing to hospitals by $1.8bn over four years.
New South Wales and Queensland have confirmed they had already funded preventive health programs with the money guaranteed by the commonwealth through the NPAPH. NSW health minister Jillian Skinner said the state had allocated money to the healthy children initiative and healthy workers initiative]
kezza2@1709
🙂 Time flies doesn’t it?
645
crikey whitey
Posted Thursday, December 19, 2013 at 10:59 pm | Permalink
Confessions.
I am not suggesting Elizabeth Henderson as a right wing culture warrior. I do think though that her life view may be informed by her background. It does not imply that her private view informs her professional life.
On the other hand, I have no time for turncoats. Warren Mundine is one of those in my opinion. Something he will come to regret.
More EXCITING exchanges may be found on:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/12/19/bludgertrack-52-0-48-0-to-labor/?comment_page=14/#comments
Oooo
[Former Queensland assistant health minister Chris Davis says he was sacked this week partly because he stood on some powerful toes.
Premier Campbell Newman dismissed Dr Davis after he spoke out against doctor contracts and changes to the Crime and Misconduct Commission.
Mr Newman described Dr Davis as a man of great integrity, but said he had to be dismissed because he breached Cabinet solidarity.
However, Dr Davis has told 7.30 Queensland that he had also raised concerns with the Premier about looming changes to political donation laws, which is partly why he was sacked.]
The election in Stafford may be a train wreck.
I find myself positively salivating at the prospect of a double dissolution election.
What intrigues me most: How would Abbott be able to put forward any pledge, policy pronouncement – any statement at all really – without inviting utter ridicule?
This notional DD election would come so soon after these brazen, cynical broken promises that Abbott would surely be rendered utterly ineffectual in a campaign. His bald-faced lying would confront him at every turn.
So what strategy would they attempt? A re-run of the last campaign about how terrible Labor was? But that is largely negated by the absence of so many key figures: Gillard, Rudd, Swann, Garrett, Ferguson, Crean – the list goes on.
So they are left trying to maul Shorten himself. Although he has some vulnerabilities, notably over union links, he is a cleanskin as a leader compared to a very badly tarnished Abbott.
Surely the LNP knows all this. Surely, therefore, they know they have comprehensively messed this up.
[Luckily Gillard rescued us from this shit 3 years ago, despite a rearguard offensive by a wounded Rudd.]
This is mindbogglingly stupid and wrong.
Gillard saved nobody, instead she and her backers totally destroyed Labor.
Rudd was Not wounded, he was going along fine with the Usual ups and downs a PM has…and he was still 52/48….in no electoral trouble at all for a first term govt.
Jesus people forget Greens voting with the Coalition, Turnbull getting knifed at the last to end the CPRS passage. It doesn’t suit their Rudd wasn’t any good narrative (a narrative that didn’t appear until afer his being sabbed).
Gillard and her team is the reason we got a hung parliament last time and why we have Abbott now.
Gillard saving Labor was nothing other than blowing holes into a perfectly good ship.
This tells me people and Labor still have not learned a thing. They still cannot see and bring themselves to accept there was not the slightest legitimate reason to knife Rudd PM. The prefer to go with the memes that were sold to them after the event because they have deep emotional attachement to them.
I am sorry for the Rudd haters that cannot see and accept these things, they have to live in some fantasy where Gillard&team rather than being the destroyers of Labor were somehow its savior. If this is how they think within Labor then they are still very sick.
Now it is the turn of Chinese and Vietnamese vessals to what is potentially a dance of death in the South China Sea.
In Vietnam itself, some chinese people are being burned out of their homes and businesses, driven out of the country and murdered.
It has a bad feel about it.
The absolutely uncompromisingly gung ho attitude of the relevant military persons being interviewed, with lots of stars on their shoulders, bodes ill.
Meanwhile Putin continues with his imperial adventures in the Ukraine.
The war-like Abe actively subverts the Japanese peace constitution, visits Yasukuni and cranks up military spending.
India elects Modi, a noted Hindu nationalist. India has the second largest population of muslims in the world.
Putin, Xi, Abe, Modi.
Not a westerner amongst them. The world tilts on its axis.
@1728
Is there a date set for Stafford by-election?
I would have thought Blugertrack would be 53-47.
[ ruawake
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 7:38 pm | Permalink
I think the only relevant term is BASTARDS.
States have been left to figure out whether to try to make up the shortfall themselves or scrap the programs, while hospitals are warning cuts in the budget will lead to longer waits in the emergency room……. ]
I think the response required is clear –
– The $80 Billion cuts to the states is in the budget papers/ bills which abbott wants passed by both houses.
These need to be knocked back with great publicity at every level which will be most uncomfortable for states with tory governments.
The theme needs to be simple – *Chuck this bunch of Lairs out* by Labor at state and federal levels pointing out all deaths will result in abbott and his ministers facing royal commissions.
Tories want to bring on royal commissions – it works both ways.
Thomas.Paine
Something Combett was questioned on today was the Cabinet process & if he was ” member” of the “strategic priorities and budget committee of cabinet”, as his name appeared on agenda & had discussion paper been circulated prior to meeting .
His short answer was No to the first & NO to the second… not having documents prior to being invited for an opinion ( related to his portfolio) in the committee was a big problem & made the process unworkable.
Hooda thought? Rummel, eh. Got 3 kids, hasn’t he?
rummel 1153
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 9:02 am | Permalink
I voted against the Libs with Work Choices as it went to far and fundamentally changedthe path of Australia away from what I wished for the country. After reviewing the budget I will again change my vote as the surcharge to visit a doctor goes against the principles of universal health care which I 100% support as a Right for all Australians.
Yes, feel free to bag me from your high horse.
Yes, the swng is on in voter land. All the libs voters I know of in Eden Monaro are openly bagging the government.
That is all. Ta.
crikey whitey:
Exactly. The way some people carry on about Gerard’s daughter, you’d fully expect her to be some sicko freaked up serial killer. Instead all we can surmise is she’s just a normal woman who fell in love and got married.
Totally irrational behaviour.
*rolls eyes*
Greetings Confessions.
Hope I have not infringed your copyright.
There is more on those PB pages.
Glad we managed then to avoid the pitfalls.
Re Mundine, though, as predicted.
Silent as a lamb to the slaughter.
Mr Palmer has, I understand, 36 million reasons to be irritated about the nation internalizing the cost of carbon dioxide emissions.
Thomas. Paine.@1730
Has it occurred to you that if you swapped “Rudd” and “Gillard” in your posts they would be just as true?
You really need to get over this TP. Your hatred is doing you damage.
[ alias
Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 7:46 pm | Permalink
I find myself positively salivating at the prospect of a double dissolution election.
What intrigues me most: How would Abbott be able to put forward any pledge, policy pronouncement – any statement at all really – without inviting utter ridicule? ]
The tories are already backing off on DD.
Its far easier for abbott to sell his arse to PUP and the others using taxpayers money until he can then stab them in the back at leisure.
But the rules changed last night and the tories know it and hate it.
abbott expects clive to deal – something we will find out – one way or another pretty soon.
Hey, Player One.
fess
[crikey whitey:
Exactly. The way some people carry on about Gerard’s daughter, you’d fully expect her to be some sicko freaked up serial killer. Instead all we can surmise is she’s just a normal woman who fell in love and got married.
Totally irrational behaviour.
*rolls eyes*]
Exactly like Warren did. Even though he was twice married, as Catholics do.
And somehow, he didn’t fall in love, he just did it because . . . he wanted the status of marrying upstation and completely out of his racial league, according to MTBW.
And then again, to think an Abbo is not allowed to change his mind about life’s philosophy is a bit bloody uppity, don’t ya reckon.
Or maybe, Warren Mundine thought he was royalty within the Aboriginal hierarchical system and thought the best way he could re-attain his status was to marry into a family who understood historical coats of arms.
Who the fuck knows. And who the hell’s business is it?
I was brought up in a family that was DLP-Liberal oriented. I initially followed that until I started to think for myself.
I think I ended up in the right spot. Although many would disagree.
crikey:
You can quote me all you like, just so long as you get my name right. 😉
No doubt Mundine is silent. I’m hoping he’s feeling like a prize fool for being taken in by Abbott’s grand promises. We all predicted it would come to this, and I have to say that however much I’m disappointed that Abbott let down indigenous communities by behaving like a seagull, I’m not in the least bit surprised by what’s transpired.
On july 1 the coalition will have PUP on board to repeal the carbon tax and fhe minimg tax. Apart from that what does Clive need to horsetrade with Abbott?
[Is there a date set for Stafford by-election?]
The member has to announce his retirement first, next week is the favoured time.
Kezza2
[I think I ended up in the right spot. Although many would disagree.]
And where would that be? 😀
alias@1729
I think you just summed up why a DD will not happen.
crikey whitey@1742
Hello, Dame Whitey! How’s life?
Whose business?
Politics, Kezza2, Politics.
Palace intrigue.