BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 34 of 39
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  2. Palmer v. Murdoch

    An irresistible force meeting and immovable object.

    Though exactly who is which is not entirely clear to me.

  3. K17

    [Can someone tell me exactly when and where Clive and the Newscorpse gang decided to go to war?]

    Basically as soon as he split from the Libs. The Oz started a smear campaign which Clive objected to.

  4. abbott’s almost worked out a story.

    Not Good enough, but a story –

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has accused Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of picking fights and of having no positive vision for Australia’s economy.

    Responding for the first time to Mr Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech, Mr Abbott said on Friday that the Labor leader offered ”nothing constructive” in his address

    The move signals Labor’s intent to replicate the Abbott opposition style of no compromises in an approach that could force the government into grinding line-by-line negotiations in the Senate both now and beyond July when the new senators alter the balance of power.

    Mr Abbott said on Friday that he was confident he could negotiate to get the budget through the minority-held Senate.

    “I think what we saw last night is a Labor Party which is in denial about the debt and deficit disaster that it created,” Mr Abbott said.

    Making his first post-budget address-in-reply speech as Opposition Leader, Mr Shorten rounded on Mr Abbott for breaking promises.

    He vowed to block punitive changes to Newstart that would force some young unemployed people to exist without the dole, along with a shift in the pension age to 70, tightening of Family Tax Benefit Part B eligibility relating to children aged over six, and the move to restore twice yearly indexation to fuel excise.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-rounds-on-bill-shorten-for-picking-fights-on-the-budget-20140516-38e1w.html#ixzz31raWvqVp

  5. @Lizzie/1649

    The media and libs rather focus their attacks on Labor, that’s why they cannot talk about it, That’s why it’s good for Clive to get it out for them.

    If Labor gives in to any of the changes, it’s a leg up to Abbott & Co.

  6. [Can someone tell me exactly when and where Clive and the Newscorpse gang decided to go to war?]

    When ace bullshit artiste Hedley Thomas somehow obtained documents stolen from Palmer’s Office. Not saying Hedley did anything wrong he just had the documents land in his lap.

    Ever since Hedley has been making up stuff hoping for another Wankley award, to go with all the others where he bullshitted the public.

  8. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 5:58 pm | PERMALINK
    kezza

    The Mint stamps out coins from a nice bit of real estate in Deakin ACT, it is not involved in the Note printing corruption, the RBA looks after notes.

    The only thing of value The Mint has is its land. Not much money in stamping out $1 coins.]

    Okay. You know what I meant though. The corruption at the heart of note-printing. Hockey obfuscated by mentioning the Mint.

    I didn’t wish to mislead Atticus.

    So, Atticus, don’t waste your time investigating the Mint, look at the RBA’s involvement with printing other country’s currency.

    Not the least, our own.

    I say corruption, on a grand scale.

  9. 1645

    There is the potential for profitable contracts minting coins and medals I would presume, especially if it is being sold off. There is even the potential to win contracts for minting foreign coins and medals and other similar sized tokens.

  11. If PUP , ALP , Greens Party keep their word the GP tax is dead thank goodness.

    So will the Govt now dump the medical research fund ?

  14. dave

    [Prime Minister Tony Abbott has accused Opposition Leader Bill Shorten of picking fights and of having no positive vision for Australia’s economy.

    Responding for the first time to Mr Shorten’s budget-in-reply speech, Mr Abbott said on Friday that the Labor leader offered ”nothing constructive” in his address]

    What!!!!!!!!!!

  15. Yep thats the one.

    [On Monday, Mr Abbott personally approved the appointment of Mr Warburton to review the nation’s renewable energy target, despite serious questions about the role of Mr Warburton and his fellow former NPA directors in overseeing a company that police allege engaged in repeated foreign bribery.]

  16. And ofcourse thanks to BK for the morning links.

    I wont comment on the Crows link….except, did anyone go? Did the Thursday night game in the city create the atmosphere they were after?

  20. I think the overriding theme of this budget is its cruelness, it could even be called sadistic. It also seems to be the overriding theme of the Government’s asylum seeker policies (even of asylum seekers already here).

    I wonder who in Cabinet or the PMO is driving these policies? Who has this sadistic streak?

    I also saw a rumour that Hockey had opposed the changes to unemployment benefits for the young, but had been rolled by Cabinet. Using the long standing theory that you can tell who leaked by who gained from the leak it appears Joe is attempting to disown his own budget.

    So is the sadist Abbott or Credlin?

  22. And something else I haven’t seen much comment on – the gutting of ASIC.

    I’m no fan of ASIC as it has been run, and it certainly needs a kick up the bum of some sort, but it is having its budget slashed AND they are looking at outsourcing the corporate registry function.

    The outsourcing didn’t seem like a big deal until I heard ‘The Business’ comment on this with an astonishing detail:

    the Federal budget also proposed a scoping study into the sale of ASIC’s registry business – a lucrative service that generates double the money that the government provides to ASIC in annual funding

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-15/putting-the-budget-bite-on-the-watchdog/5456302

    WTF? How does any of this make any sense? Except to wave the white flag and let the financial services industries run amok?

    Maybe, trying to find a silver lining, ASIC will become so totally withered on the vine that a few more scandals will hit and the next ALP government can abolish ASIC and replace it with something with teeth and the will to use them.

  24. ruawake

    Hedley Thomas won a Walkley for his exposure of the Haneef Affair.

    I was one of the first to congratulate him. Because I thought he was the son of the Thomas family of Pakenham Gazette fame.

    And the Thomas family of Pakenham were no Labor supporters.

    He was suitably magnanimous in receiving that award.

    So, I’ve always taken his reports with grain of truth, whether I’ve agreed with his position or not.

    Unfortunately Hedley Thomas has become one and the same with News Corp. It’s impossible to tell propaganda from a report. Therefore anything he has to say has no value.

    Then again, the only reason his report about Haneef was supported by Murdoch, was because Murdoch was still supporting Rudd at that time.

    Was Hedley Thomas’ report into the dam above Brisbane accurate? I read as much as I could about it, and came to the conclusion that even though Hedley Thomas had a lot more insight, his articles were definitely biased. Against the Bligh government in particular, and Labor, federally, in general.

    But, still I persisted with him as an accurate reporter. I believed his stuff about Wivenden Dam despite my concerns.

    Then, when he turned on Qld Labor, I started to smell a rat. Hedley was no longer reporting, nor presenting facts. This was Rupe’s input.

    And don’t forget I have worked round lots of traps. Okay, all of them have been in Melbourne, but I’m talking lots of editorials from the dailies to the Sundays, to the suburbs.

    You soon get to realise when to shut up if you want to keep your job.

    Getting back to Hedley Thomas, well the war between Clive Palmer and Rupert Murdoch is nothing to be sneezed at.

    If Hedley wants his job, he’ll do it the way Rupe wants.

    Simple.As.That.

    I, for one, am really glad that Palmer is taking the bastard on. You have to have a really big front.

    Have to say, late on a Saturday night, I got sick of hearing Mary Hardy screaming abuse at us – she reminds me of Rupert.

    Self-indulgent geriatric prix who had no regard for anyone but themselves.

  25. [I think the overriding theme of this budget is its cruelness]

    Very true, but what’s this habit of adding ‘ness’ to everything???? It sounds so friggin’ ugly

    WTF is wrong with cruelty? As a word that is…

  26. Jackol –

    [ ASIC will become so totally withered on the vine that a few more scandals will hit and the next ALP government can abolish ASIC and replace it with something with teeth and the will to use them. ]

    Its a classic repeat of what Reagan did in the US.

    All aimed at weakening law enforcement etc as you say.

    The tories rarely do much thats original.

  27. [Hedley Thomas won a Walkley for his exposure of the Haneef Affair.]

    By reporting Stephen Kiem’s outrage.

    Thomas false information caused the Dam RC in Qld to sit for a week, he sledged the Dam operators and the Commision said he was taking shit.

    Before that Jayant Patel, mistrial by Hedley. Another stuff up.

    His latest was the AWU slushie affair, where his evidence came from Mike Smith and the cock er roach at the RC this week.

    Now he is implying Palmer is a crook. Sad man who decided to retire from Journalism, he should have stuck to that idea.

  28. I have a shot in profile of Abbott, today. Paused on TV.

    I noticed what appears to be bruising near his left ear. More significantly his inner ear is a weird shape.

    Looked up images of cauliflower ear. Seems very likely to my untrained eye.

    Does that imply possible brain damage (yea, I know) but seriously?

  29. Actually the Mint could be a good money spinner for a private buyer. From its website:

    [As well as the Mint’s functions to produce Australia’s coinage, it produces coins for other countries, along with medals, medallions, tokens and seals for private clients, both national and international.]

    It probably makes a fair bit from special coins for collectors as well as the production mentioned above.

    Weird but true: Some time ago a Mint production worker got caught with stolen coins. Over a period of some years he had put a few $2 coins each day in his shoes and had accumulated about $100,000 worth. Someone got suspicious when he tried to pay a large bill with a sack of brand new coins.

  33. adrian
    [WTF is wrong with cruelty?]

    All depends on what you were taught.
    ‘Cruel’ is both a noun and a verb.

    If you use it as a verb, then cruelness or cruelty can be a function of how we view verbs.

    Sort of like when is an adverb not an adverb?

    We don’t all proscribe to the rule.

    In the end, it is all about communication.

    You understood what it meant, but you seem to think aesthetics is more important rather than conveying an idea.

    That’s how the tag ‘elitism’ is born.

  35. Just spotted in Melbourne’s inner northern suburbs… The Hockey special… #auspol #Budget2014 pic.twitter.com/8o4UD6op5N

  36. MTBW

    From that link

    [‘Warren Mundine is a poshy indigenous person who has never set his foot in this Aboriginal community,’ said Matthew Ryan, a traditional owner from the West Arnhem region.]

    Don’t think they like him much either.

  37. B.C
    [So is the sadist Abbott or Credlin?]

    Credlin, the strategist!

    Purely because politically it is usually easy to sell an attack on those on welfare as opposed to tackling tax rorts by big business.

    Even those on relatively modest incomes are easily convinced they are suffering taxes because of these welfare bludgers.

    Far easier to attack those with no clout, no voice.

    They are not party donors and don’t have the funds to launch campaigns.

  39. ruawake

    You obviously have a lot more knowledge that I do about Hedley Thomas.

    As I said I thought he was reporting accurately, but then began to question all of his stuff.

    And worse, realised how biased newspapers could be. Having worked on them quite extensively.

    You don’t realise until you get out of the game how much you are influenced by a particular organisation’s bent.

    Once I was working freelance, I came to recognise it. But even then you get sucked in.

  40. adrian Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 6:31 pm @ 1675

    Very true, but what’s this habit of adding ‘ness’ to everything???? It sounds so friggin’ ugly

    WTF is wrong with cruelty? As a word that is…

    Point takeness 🙂

  41. Best thing Labor could do is give Clive gentle support

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-14/clive-palmer-budget-based-on-lies/5451548

    Clive has the capacity to cut through & get right up Tonnys’ nose

    & enough money & nouce to use Murdoch ( Gobels award reciepint ) low standing in community to his advantage. Being of the Capitalist made it good class Dayli Terror readers don’t see him as a complaining socialist

    Plus Clives’ word per minute delivery is 3 times that of slow thinking Toeny …

  42. Nick Ross ‏@NickRossTech 1m

    Aussie developers respond to ‘short sighted’ Budget slashing of Australian Interactive Games Fund http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2014/05/16/4006324.htm … @iGEA_Oz

    Well, Gaming Industry in Australia sounds like another enemy for Liberals.

    Even if you are a pure liberal voter, but you are a Gamer (PC/Consoles) having no local development in Australia is a devastating blow to the jobs and economy.

    If Young Liberals are reading, time to part your ties to the Liberals.

  43. mikehilliard

    Nor they should! He tops it all off by marrying Gerard Henderson’s daughter.

    He is a bloody disgrace to his race!

    He will be getting top money you can bet.

  44. [1675
    adrian

    I think the overriding theme of this budget is its cruelness

    Very true, but what’s this habit of adding ‘ness’ to everything???? It sounds so friggin’ ugly

    WTF is wrong with cruelty? As a word that is…]

    it lacks longness

  47. [MTBW
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
    mikehilliard

    Nor they should! He tops it all off by marrying Gerard Henderson’s daughter.

    He is a bloody disgrace to his race!

    He will be getting top money you can bet.]

    Ewwwww!

    Who are you to say who should fall in love, or not, with someone outside their race?

    Or their monetary value?

    Fark me. What a shocking view of the world.

    Next you’ll be telling us Mundine should be sitting in a humpy, to suit your sensibilities.

  48. I associate Hedley Thomas as the chief instigator in attaching the “Julia Gillards ex-boyfriend” to every mention of Bruce Wilson.

  50. [Well, Gaming Industry in Australia sounds like another enemy for Liberals.]

    The next Borderlands game had just been given to 2K Games Australia to develop, it may now go elsewhere.

    Don’t worry its just a video game. With a $200 million budget. 🙁

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