BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 39
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  1. rua

    They’ve got the depth in the forwards to replace Bird. Have you seen their odds?

    They’re underrated, they work well as a unit and will improve on last week.

  2. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    @ 1584

    I whisper back into your ear: “plus one”.

    I think every generation generates risk takers on a small or a large scale. We wouldn’t have progressed otherwise, would we?

    We’d still have been stuck in kingdom come. Which is where Abbott wants us to reside. A sort-of benevolent serfdom, for our own good, where the lords and ladies of the manor decide personal taxation.

    And who should not be raised above their station.

    I think he fell into a dream while watching Downtown Abbey, instead of Rugby League, or whatever that period drama was called.

    Especially if he’d gotten the scullery maid pregnant.

    What a thrilling end to an episode it would have been. To discover he’d been paying the bills for his illegitimate son’s executive education, (the only son he had, oh bugger for his legitimate daughters) only to discover through 21stC DNA the child wasn’t his.

    If he’d had any integrity he would have shot himself instead of putting his wife, the Lady Margie, through all the terrible deceit of his infedility.

    But elas, he didn’t have the balls. Begone you interloper he said to the Australian press. As if it was the child’s fault.

    You couldn’t make this shit up, could you.

    Abbott only had time for breast-cancer-ridden Kathy Donnelly because he thought she’d borne him a son.

    A son he was willing to forgo for an Oxford Blue.

    Funnily enough he couldn’t throw sons. Only inferior daughters. But he had to make money of them as well, for his pathetic fiefdom. He makes laws for excessive payments for birthing children. Five Grand wasn’t enough.

    What a hypocrite.

  3. I remember when Gillard got caught up in a protest directed at Abbott in Canberra – the media couldn’t get enough of Julia be pushed around. Probably won’t apply to Julie, though.

  4. Dee@1588

    Bemused
    Is this a regular Monday Q&A or a special one?


    It was being promoted as a ‘special’.

    Thanks Dee. Regular Monday night time slot?

    Should be fun. 😀

  5. [sohar
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 5:07 pm | PERMALINK
    I remember when Gillard got caught up in a protest directed at Abbott in Canberra – the media couldn’t get enough of Julia be pushed around. Probably won’t apply to Julie, though.]

    What about the sandwich.

    Was it cucumber and watercresss?

  7. Bemused

    It is Hockey all on his lonesome.

    Bet there were special conditions demanded for his presence, re: format

  8. 1593

    Abbott might go to the GG before the leadership vote if he founds out he was going to loose.

    Also Abbott might not inform the GG about a leadership change before advising of the DD and if the GG has not found out, then he would likely grant it.

  9. rua

    Can the Raiders bounce back at home?

    I doubt it, the Panthers are playing with confidence. I’ll try to do better (odds for Panthers) on the markets.

  10. Bet there were special conditions demanded for his presence, re: format

    Audience members have to show their IPA membership card at the door?

  11. Dee@1607

    Bemused

    It is Hockey all on his lonesome.

    Bet there were special conditions demanded for his presence, re: format

    Like… no hard questions?

    Thanks again.

  12. Centre

    It is Halfback Albert Kelly (hamstring), lock Ashley Harrison (concussion) that makes me think the Titans are no chance.

    Who knows with the Raiders, they beat Souths and Melbourne. Penrith in Canberra is always a home team bet.

  13. [sohar
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 5:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza
    I’m sure Abbott gets worse things than sangers tossed at him, but the media won’t report it.

    Not unless the crusts were removed.

  14. zoid

    I went over to that poll you linked and the figures are really interesting.

    You should all take the chance to vote.

  15. Dee @ 1598

    A taste of what this country might become if the social fabric is continually attacked and destroyed by the LNP.

    Not nice is it Ms Bishop?

    Sow as you reap or however the expression goes.

    Yes Ms Bishop the voters at large are VERY angry. Get used to it. ‘Born to rule’ does actually involve some work. Deal with it or get out of the way.

  17. I reckon consistency demands that John Howard and his relevant ministers be called before a RC to state their acceptance of responsibility, if not culpability, for every single death and injury to a soldier who was sent to the Iraq war based on their blatantly “flawed” rush to judgement that there was a clear and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction, despite Hans Blix with U.N. inspectors being there to find out the truth. See Blix’s ‘Disarming Iraq’ (2004) in which the final chapter is titled “Weapons of Mass Disappearance”.

  19. Tomorrows march will be interesting. OH reports her TAFE students are freaking out so there should be plenty of youth on the street. See you there.

  22. But Bishop should not be pushed around by students or anyone. Politicians are definitely hand off, no matter how much you despise the very ground their shadow touches.

  23. caf @ 1593

    If Abbott knew a vote on his leadership was imminent it may be 50 versus 40 (like KF v JG). The ALP and others would happily support him and his 40 supporters providing they got a DD. The GG would have no choice but to grant it as the numbers would be there and the necessary bills are already available.

  25. [Atticus
    Posted Friday, May 16, 2014 at 5:27 pm | PERMALINK
    I reckon consistency demands that John Howard and his relevant ministers be called before a RC to state their acceptance of responsibility, if not culpability, for every single death and injury to a soldier who was sent to the Iraq war based on their blatantly “flawed” rush to judgement that there was a clear and present danger posed by Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction, despite Hans Blix with U.N. inspectors being there to find out the truth. See Blix’s ‘Disarming Iraq’ (2004) in which the final chapter is titled “Weapons of Mass Disappearance”.]

    Not to mention Andrew Wilkie’s evidence before he was outed by the LNP as a ‘bastardiser’ at Duntroon.

    But, hell yeah, let’s bring on that RC.

    And the other one, the Australian Wheat Board fiasco that brought Rudd into the limelight. How about an RC into that?

    Pity Rudd chickened out on that one, after getting us all revved up. In hindsight, I bet he wishes he’d gone for it.

    And what about the Royal Australian Mint? You know, the one about to be sold off in this budget? Where it the bribery has been proved?

    There’s so many situations where we, the Australian public, have to pay through our taxes to prop up criminals.

    We’re seeing daily, at ICAC, that the criminals are protected by the Liberals, if not the Nationals.

    Yet, time and again, the MSM aided and abetted by the folk who give them tax cuts year on year, Labor is blamed for this blatant attack on the social fabric.

    All of these criminals should be called to account. But they’re not, and they won’t be, because they have money. And they want to keep it that way.

    Yet you and I, honest workers, have to pay.

  28. Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer · 21m

    Report on p1 of @australian today on Mineralogy dealings with Citic Pacific is false, misleading & defamatory …

    Clive Palmer @CliveFPalmer · 17m

    At appropriate time I will make statement to parliament to disclose full truth on matters between Mineralogy & Citic Pacific

  30. [But Bishop should not be pushed around by students or anyone]

    So why did Security bring her in a door with protesting students at the top of the stairs? Did they think they would be throwing rose petals in her path?

  31. caf – the GG wouldn’t pay attention to what was going on in the Lib party room.

    The Libs would never vote no confidence in their own PM no matter how fractious things got internally.

  33. Any jostling of JB resulted from the bodyguards doing their job forcing a way through the students rather than an attack on JB. No great drama from any side.

  34. Mike
    [I got a good laugh from that, Palmer really hates Murdoch.]

    So much truth attached to Palmer’s statement on Murdoch.

  35. kezza2,

    You are spot on. Crikey, somehow I’ve missed the Royal Aust. Mint ratbaggery, so will proceed to check that out now.

  36. By the look of the T-Shirts it seems Sydney Uni is in the midst of Student elections, probably wise for pollies of all ilks to stay away for a few weeks.

  37. zoidlord @ 1626

    We only had one chance to get into this FTTP game early, with all the benefits that can bring if it is done right.

    But we have blown it, big time.

    Now we are being relegated to playing expensive catch-up, when it could so easily have been the complete opposite outcome.

    Hope you are proud of your contribution to this farce, Lord Turnbullshitter.

  38. @Jackol/1631

    They would have to be (the GG), for dissolving parliament, advice and the appropriate bills (there seems to be only the required 1 bill needed to trigger a DD).

  39. [So why did Security bring her in a door with protesting students at the top of the stairs?]

    It looked to me that the security guards brought her up the back way to avoid the protesters but the protesters made their way through the venue to the back entrance stairs.

  42. This evening’s Factcheck on ABC24 (which I am normally a little cynical about) repeated with emphasis that even when corrected, Hockey and his followed continue to misrepresent the Great Big Debt that Labor left. Yes, right there in front of us in QT this week he repeated the lies on two occasions.

    This myth, if perpetuated, will lose Labor the next election.

  43. @Just Me/1637

    We can still bring back the real NBN before it is sold off at next election (or a DD), most of the infrastructure won’t be done till closer till next election.

  45. kezza

    The Mint stamps out coins from a nice bit of real estate in Deakin ACT, it is not involved in the Note printing corruption, the RBA looks after notes.

    The only thing of value The Mint has is its land. Not much money in stamping out $1 coins.

  48. K17 – I’m sure other PBers are more across the details (some of the Queensland contingent?) but I think it started when Clive broke up with the LNP. Once Clive started taking populist pot shots at Newman and Abbott I think the Murdoch machine reflexively kicked into gear to start spraying mud on Palmer.

    Palmer not being one to take such things lightly responded by rounding on all things Murdoch.

    It’s been escalating ever since.

  49. zoidlord

    But the comment was also made that Lib social media is passing it round. And all the Lib pollies murmur in appreciation.

    Go Clive! But I’d rather hear it from Labor. Loudly.

  50. But I’d rather hear it from Labor. Loudly.

    It was a major theme of Shorten’s speech last night talking about the myth of the budget emergency.

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