ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

The second big-sample ReachTEL automated phone poll in consecutive weeks confirms last week’s result on voting intention, but also finds majority support for the deficit tax.

The Fairfax papers have run another of ReachTEL’s large-sample automated phone polls of federal voting intention, such as it has been conducting on a semi-regular basis for the Seven Network, most recently just a week ago. This one was conducted on Thursday night from a sample of 3241, and as with last week’s poll it has the Labor lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 39.8% for Labor (up 0.2%), 37.8% for the Coalition (down 1.1%), 10.5% for the Greens (down 0.7%), 7.0% for Palmer United (up 1.0%, and adding to their recent upward trend). Other questions find majority support for a deficit levy when the question specifies it being “between 1 and 2 per cent” and “imposed on high income earners to help reduce debt”, which was favoured by 53.7% and opposed by 32.4%. However, 42% said it has made them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 22.8% for more likely. Raising the pension age to 70 is also unpopular, being supported by 21.2% and opposed by 68.1%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

606 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Well the ALP appointed him william.

    Oh, right. So Downer was the ALP negotiator in Cyprus, and Costello was the ALP member of the Future Fund board.

  2. I suspect the reasons for the Heydon RC is to blacken the names of former prime ministers, as is the pinkBatts RC which is filling our front pages at the moment.

    Maybe some possibility that Bill Shorten will be implicated? Maybe Ralph Blewitt will say he joined him in a. Balinese brothel? Who knows what the “liar for hire” will come up with.

    And the wet dream of the loony right wing-nuts. JG in the witness box conceding what happened 25 years ago is convincing evidence that the entire Labor movement is invalid, and …..

  3. mexicanbeemer

    [there would be more disabled people today than the 1960s]
    Ya reckon ? A whole generation was knackered in WWI and WWII was not too far better. Then there woz the heaps that were struck down back in the day by stuff like polio.

  4. While many here may be happy to see the LNP struggling with the economy, I just wonder how Labor would have coped if still in office?

    I suspect with a majority of 15 it would have also had to take the risk of hurting some – though not necessarily those dependent upon health, education and welfare support.

    The tragedy of Rudd was that wasted opportunity back in 2007/08.

    While 60-40 was totally unrealistic, all that political capital went to water.

    Meanwhile Liberal fog horn in the West newspaper, Paul Murray today, describes Abbott as a time bomb, with no political capital, waiting to explode.

    Pretty bleak really. Not sure whether Labor might not be just be a little better off just shutting up and keeping its powder dry.

    Same applies to Labor in WA.

  5. [A whole generation was knackered in WWI and WWII was not too far better. ]

    Many Vietnam era people are on disability pensions as well.

  6. And still the Union and members have not raised any issue of impropriety in the AWU alleged slush fund.

    Only the Liberal politicians have raised issue supported by an unethical, immoral media

  7. Abbott’s no change to PENSIONS plural is a farce.

    How about his election pledge to index the Defence Pension the same as the OAP, instead he axes the defined benefit pension entirely.

    Grub.

  8. “No further than I could throw him.”

    his younger sister Penelope Lennon, who said she been estranged from Mr Blewitt for 18 years, said she wouldn’t trust her brother’s evidence.

    “I haven’t changed my mind. He is a crook,” she said today.

    “They should lock him up and throw away the key.”
    =======================================================

    Blewitt – the perfect Liberal

  9. Slipper, like Rat Richo and Mal Colson is a case study In what vitriol you can attract when you ‘switch sides’ for money.

    But ESJ can’t deny that Slipper is one of yours, as is Hartcher and his cronies in the NSW Liberal Party. I don’t think that ICAC will get to the bottom of the corruption in Liberal ranks, and the next ALP administration in either NSW or federally must institute a Royal Commission into the NSW Liberal Party, it’s office holders, sham foundations to launder donations, and the dirty tricks unit with their black ops.

  10. poroti

    Both wars created many serious mental issues which as you say were basically kept quiet.

    Sadly many never received any real help besides the bottle.

  11. [Here in Melbourne i have heard no reportage whatsoever re the Insulation program]

    I have heard bits and pieces on ABC Radio News (mainly in the wee hrs when it comes from WA) It seems the Public Servants did not tell their political masters anything, how surprising.

    How many tens of millions is this costing us?

  12. [457
    victoria
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 6:42 pm | PERMALINK
    sprocket

    Here in Melbourne i have heard no reportage whatsoever re the Insulation program
    ]

    I was tongue in cheek on that one. There already has been 4 enquiries into this, nothing new. Therefore no news.

  13. [427
    mexicanbeemer

    briefly

    Furthermore the current policy isn’t going to be successful without a more proactive plan, something this minister is not capable of developing or implementing.]

    They don’t need plans. They only intend to take everything to pieces – to shut down as many services as possible, give what they can to the States and privatise whatever else remains.

    They want to miniaturise Government.

  14. ru

    I have heard nothing at all in our radio newsbreaks about the insulation program.

    Sprocket

    As we live in a 24 hour news cycle, it would appear to be old news now

  15. Tricot –

    I just wonder how Labor would have coped if still in office?

    So far the PEFO forecasts seem to be holding up.

    That tends to imply that the projections that the ALP left office with were not too unreasonable, and they showed a return to surplus in a few years.

    So in the short term I don’t think there was (or is!) any need for radical changes.

    The ALP had done some good incremental work in closing off some of the open-ended drains on future revenue, and that process would probably have had to continue.

  16. The annoying thing is Kevin Andrew’s could hold a real inquiry into the DSP anytime he desires, I mean a proper one.

    One with submissions from stakeholders, one with facts not bullshit, and one that states what the problem actually is.

  17. Rua

    He so could do that but that would require being honest and open to actually tackling the issues raised.

    All he is doing is playing on people’s prejudices to cover his and the government’s political problem.

  18. Funny thing that all these people crowing about Royal Commissions fail to comprehend is that more often than not, they back fire.
    One only need look as ICAC to see how that is playing out.

  19. dave

    The UK’s The Independent is in this centenary year, doing a series of 100 images of the war. Today featured the death of Rudyard Kipling’s son.

    [A History of the First World War in 100 Moments: ‘It was a short life. I’m sorry all the years’ work ended in one afternoon’

    Rudyard Kipling was one of the war’s great literary voices of patriotism. Then his own son went into battle, and was never seen again……….
    Carrie told her mother: “One can’t let one’s friends’ and neighbours’ sons be killed in order to save us and our son. There is no chance John will survive unless he is so maimed from a wound as to be unfit to fight. We know it and he does – we all know it.”

    After John was lost, the Kiplings hoped for months that he had been taken prisoner. His body was never found.
    ]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/world-history/history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments/a-history-of-the-first-world-war-in-100-moments-it-was-a-short-life-im-sorry-all-the-years-work-ended-in-one-afternoon-9347612.html

  20. ESJ

    [There is more work to be had north of the Brisbane Line.]

    No, there isn’t. Northern Queensland has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

  21. zoomster@479

    ESJ

    There is more work to be had north of the Brisbane Line.


    No, there isn’t. Northern Queensland has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country.

    C’mom Zoomster, you do realise that ESJ doesn’t do fact, now do you ?

  22. Cameron Murphy son of the late Lionel Murphy preselected today for the State Seat of East Hills.

    Only two candidates in the ballot.

  23. And of course trying to force people to live and work where they have no inclination to live and work begs the question “what is the economy for?”

    The economy exists to serve us and help to allocate resources in a way that makes our lives better. We should never be treated as pieces existing to be shuffled around to serve some abstract economic end.

  24. This sentence in yesterday’s SMH gives me hope that “Pink Batts” Commissioner Hanger QC understands the real world and is examining what actually happened. The role of the industry in the story is being examined.

    Mr Hanger said there appeared to be a level of naivety in the then government, with public servants in charge of the scheme relying on what they were being told by warring parts of the insulation industry.
    The inquiry continues.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/home-insulation-program-rushed-director-says-20140509-zr7oh.html#ixzz31DU1KqcG

  25. [I have heard nothing at all in our radio newsbreaks about the insulation program.]

    You aren’t alone. I’ve heard SFA about it also.

  26. ESJ is a bit sad.

    It must be awful when the only way you can defend your side of politics is by spouting utter nonsense…and when you’re so ashamed of your side that you pretend to be ‘independent’.

  27. AHEAD of the budget, the federal government is handing money to top athletes regarded as good prospects to win medals.

    Sports Minister Peter Dutton said 650 of Australia’s best athletes would benefit from a newly designed program that reallocates $1.6 million directly to the best medal hopes and emerging talent.

    Mr Dutton said this would come from a re-designed Direct Athlete Support (DAS) program of $48 million over four years.
    =============================================

    More Abbott money for athletes while attacking disabled.

  28. mexicanbeemer

    I had three great great uncles who “did” Gallipoli , Palestine and France. Rather than the bottle they became rebels and uber flower , fruit and vegetable gardeners. When I say ‘rebel’ think in the 1920’s one of them marrying a Maori lady without bothering with a church service . Basically “shacking up” as they say these days.

  29. Jackol

    Which brings us to the need to create employment opportunities which enable people to work to live rather than live to work.

    People like ESJ who always come out with a range of straw man arguments about how they did plenty of small jobs and the like and claim there are plenty of jobs for people who want work but in reality any recruiter will tell you that they are speaking rubbish about the job market.

    There should be a rule that anyone who wants to mouth-off about how easy it is too get a job and its the unemployed person’s fault they should be willing to reveal their job.

    I seriously dealt most would have a job which doesn’t require some formal qualifications or they didn’t network there way in though previous experience.

  30. [ poroti
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 6:58 pm | Permalink

    dave

    The UK’s The Independent is in this centenary year, doing a series of 100 images of the war. Today featured the death of Rudyard Kipling’s son. ]

    poroti – there is an excellent movie around on this called “My Boy Jack”.

    His father was a close friend of the King and in the movie is portrayed as ‘pushing’ (that maybe a tad too strong) into enlisting in the RN.

    Jack was found to have bad eyesight and rejected, despite several attempts to enlist.

    He eventually got into the Army as an Officer Cadet and indue course went off to war.

    The movie portrays him being killed after losing his glasses during an attack and shot because he couldn’t see what was going on.

    Don’t know how much it was based on fact.

    A disturbing movie never the less particularly Kipling senior role – if true.

  31. [Tricot
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 6:42 pm | PERMALINK
    While many here may be happy to see the LNP struggling with the economy, I just wonder how Labor would have coped if still in office?
    ]

    Tricot

    I said at the time is was a “good” election for Labor to lose and a bad one for the Libs to win. Even without Abbott that would have been the case, but with him in charge they are now at risk of seriously damaging the Liberal brand – and it couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch of bastards.

  32. Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Paul Syvret ‏@PSyvret 23m

    Only we will decide who is disabled and the circumstances in which they are cast aside…

    Richard Chirgwin ‏@R_Chirgwin 6m

    “I love god” and “I hate the disabled” are statements that cannot be reconciled unless you’re a turd who deserves an unmarked grave.

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    War On Disabled Bludgers. Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie o_O

    Sad but true.

  33. DARN – This govt contains many of the huge nongs in the Howard Government. However, there are two major differences:
    – No John Howard to temper their idiocy; and
    – Very significantly, no CHINA boom (which really saved Howard).

    Now we just have a bunch of small govt extremist nongs trying to cut at a time of economic weakness.

  34. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@493

    DARN – This govt contains many of the huge nongs in the Howard Government. However, there are two major differences:
    – No John Howard to temper their idiocy; and

    That explains Jolly Jo Shrek, and Boxhead living it up on fat Cuban cigars

  35. Jackol@482

    And of course trying to force people to live and work where they have no inclination to live and work begs the question “what is the economy for?”

    The economy exists to serve us and help to allocate resources in a way that makes our lives better. We should never be treated as pieces existing to be shuffled around to serve some abstract economic end.

    Thanks Jackol, that is a very useful insight.

  36. [KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
    Posted Saturday, May 10, 2014 at 7:41 pm | PERMALINK
    DARN – This govt contains many of the huge nongs in the Howard Government. However, there are two major differences:
    – No John Howard to temper their idiocy; and
    – Very significantly, no CHINA boom (which really saved Howard).

    Now we just have a bunch of small govt extremist nongs trying to cut at a time of economic weakness.]

    Precisely

  37. Darn – always a bit of an each way bet. When your party of choice is out of office it means improved policies are held up.

    On the other hand, when the going gets tough, the conservatives just seem to develop a tough hide, are deaf to the needy and blind to anyone else other than their own pay masters.

    I sense Labor would have had to bite the bullet to cope with falling revenue for the budget though one senses the poor and weak could have looked forward to more compassionate treatment.

    Anyway, on the one hand, we none of us want to see Oz suffer, but on the other, there is a kind of perverse satisfaction in seeing the potential grand stuff up being currently manufactured by Abbott and his Merry Men (plus one woman).

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