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| Red and blue numbers respectively indicate booths with two-party majorities for Labor and Liberal. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
The only seat left standing for Labor in Tasmania after a 9.4% statewide swing at the last election, Franklin covers the Hobart suburbs on the eastern bank of the Derwent River together with Kingston on the city’s southern fringe, small towns further to the south, and the unpopulated southern part of the World Heritage area in Tasmania’s south-west. The remainder of Hobart, including the city centre and the suburbs on the river’s western bank, constitutes the electorate of Denison. As one of Tasmania’s constitutionally mandated five House of Representatives seats, Franklin has an enrolment of roughly three-quarters the national average and an uninterrupted history going back to the state’s division into single-member electorates in 1903.
Labor first won Franklin at a by-election held two months after the election of Jim Scullin’s government in 1929, then lost it again amid the party’s debacle of 1931. The seat subsequently changed hands in 1934, 1946, 1969 and 1975, before remaining in Liberal hands throughout the Fraser years and the first 10 years of the Hawke-Keating government. Labor finally won the seat when colourful Liberal member Bruce Goodluck retired at the 1993 election, which together a strong statewide result for Labor delivered a decisive 9.5% swing to Harry Quick. Quick maintained the seat with only mild swings either way at subsequent elections, although there were occasional suggestions he might be brought undone by internal party machinations. When his preselection appeared threatened ahead of the 2004 election, Quick was able to secure his position partly by indicating that he might run as an independent.
After choosing his own time of departure at the 2007 election, Quick sought to keep the seat out of factional hands by promoting his staffer Roger Joseph as his successor. This was thwarted when a deal assigned Franklin to Kevin Harkins, state secretary of the Left faction Electrical Trades Union, and Bass to the Right-backed Steve Reissig. Objecting that Harkins was a “right thuggish bastard” who would lose the seat, Quick declared that he planned to vote for the Greens. His attacks drew blood as newly anointed Labor leader Kevin Rudd sought to distance the party from unsavoury union associations, with Harkins carrying baggage from the 2003 Cole royal commission into the building and construction industry. Harkins’ position ultimately became untenable in July 2007 when the Australian Building and Construction Commission brought charges against him over an illegal strike. When he won preselection for the Senate ahead of the 2010 election, he was again rolled by the intervention of Kevin Rudd.
With Harkins out of the picture and the election looming, the preselection was referred to the party’s national executive, which maintained the factional balance by choosing the Left’s Julie Collins, the state party secretary and a strongly performing though unsuccessful candidate at the March 2006 state election. The loss of Quick’s personal vote combined with the manner of his departure resulted in Collins suffering a 3.1% swing, one of only four swings to the Coalition at that election. Coming off a suppressed base, she went on to enjoy a 6.8% swing at the 2010 election, the highest recorded by a Labor candidate anywhere in the country. She then emerged Labor’s only lower house survivor in the face of a swing that unseated sitting members in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, her margin reduced to 5.1% by a 5.7% swing to the Liberals that was 3.7% below the statewide result.
Collins was made a parliamentary secretary after the election, and progressed to the outer ministry as Community Services Minister in December 2011. After backing Kevin Rudd’s successful leadership bid in late June she was promoted to cabinet, adding housing and homelessness, the status of women and indigenous employment to her existing area of responsibility. Since the election defeat she has held the shadow portfolios of regional development, local government and employment services.
[Agree 100%. It even looks like the detailed contents of the budget will give lie to that furphy. If there was a budget emergency you wouldn’t be cutting company tax or contemplating a gold-plated PPL scheme.]
Yes it pointing out the inherent contradictions in the budget would be a good way to point out that we aren’t actually in a budget emergency. If we were the government wouldn’t repeal the mining tax, carbon tax, or waste $2.55 billion on hand outs to polluting industries. Nor would we commit now to buying 100 Joint Strike Fighters or increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP.
😆 on Richo . Coming up Richo and Barnyard interview .
An aside from Richo explains much about the rat. After a mention of Madigan and the DLP he said “My father spent much of his life voting for the DLP”
How about
Tony promised to balance the budget with no new taxes.
He often compared the Australian economy to a household budget and to keep it simple for Tony effectively he is balancing the budget by not feeding the kids and stealing from his employer.
There is nothing impressive about that and everything wrong with it.
Shows On @ 584
No, not good enough. I haven’t heard them retaliate whenever reference is made to Labor’s budget mess.
The Libs run riot on it and have released a coloured brochure on the need to fix Labor’s budget mess.
If I haven’t heard anyone from Labor set the record straight…no one else whose vote counts has either!
[A bunch of journalists asked him why he was using a ministerial press conference to launch a Liberal document.]
So a mission fail in other words as I haven’t seen it reported anywhere other than twitter?
It seems as though the press pack have turned against Abbott in much the same way they turned against Gillard. I wonder if Abbott has the ability to get them back on side again.
[Christine Milne today said “Tony Abbott is having his Juliar moment by braking an election promise”.]
Seriously? Did Milne actually say that?
[If I haven’t heard anyone from Labor set the record straight…no one else whose vote counts has either!]
Well read some transcripts by Chris Bowen. At the moment he is doing a better job of it than Shorten.
For example, watch this ABC fact check:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-06/has-the-government-doubled-the-budget-deficit/5423392
Your contributions have always been diverting and amusing in a juvenile way showson but lately they have become rather tiresome.
Yes Atticus, a good article and a necessary call to arms.
[Your contributions have always been diverting and amusing in a juvenile way showson but lately they have become rather tiresome.]
You just don’t have the intellectual capacity to comprehend what I am writing.
It’s getting more and more obvious to me that we can’t take a journo’s word for accurate reporting.
Just as we see Andrew Bolt erroneous take Waleed Aly’s interview on The Project totally out of context, and misleadingly report to his readers that Aly was not prepared to admit his fellow Muslims were to blame for the kidnapping (and preparedness to sell) 270 Christian teenage women to the highest bidder, then we, we Pollbludgers, have to keep going to the primary sources.
In these days that means video sources of complete interviews. And they usually pop up somewhere on line within a few days.
So, Fairfax journos are out on strike re redundancies. And Kate McClyrmont tweets that she can no longer tweet regarding ICAC.
Something for which she has been praised (her reporting so far, not her inability to do tomorrow).
Is that really going to affect us?
Not so much. She wasn’t the only one tweeting.
And I did find much of her tweeting to be less than professional.
It’s okay for us to call Arthur Sinodinis “Arfur”, but for a serious journo, should she really tweet the same?
Should she call Alan Jones “The Parrott” in her tweets?
And there’s many more nicknames, most derogatory.
Am I wrong in wanting a bit more of straight reporting than this endless display of ‘cleverness’?
Which brings me to Miranda Devine’s hilarious article about “f_cking gay c_nt”
On the one hand she tells the story of the devolving of the word “gay”, and then calls “f_cking” and “c_nt” swearwords, and then says one of them, presumably c_nt, is sexist.
And forgets to tell the story of the many meanings of those words, where f_ck in all its glory has transformed from a verb to be collogquially used as a emphatic adjective, and c_nt is used as definitive term of contempt while having nothing to do with female genitalia.
Ah well, I did but try to bring this to your attention, over the past few years by my use of same.
[Seriously? Did Milne actually say that?]
I think she said that yesterday.
From Chris Bowen, the apparently invisible on PB person, today.
[MYEFO revealed that the Government has parked an additional $10 billion in the Contingency Reserve for 2015-16 and 2016-17. This is spending we don’t have all the details on and it’s spending that contributes to Joe Hockey’s doubling the deficits, adding $68bn to budget deficits.
If you read MYEFO at face value it suggests that only $13.7 billion of the total $68 billion blowout was attributable to new policy decisions.
However a deeper investigation shows that hidden in the budget figures is an additional $10 billion worth of new spending measures (this shows up in the ‘Contingency Reserve’ which includes figures relating to policy decisions already taken but not necessarily announced).
This information suggests that explicit spending decisions taken by Joe Hockey at MYEFO contributed far more to the $68 billion budget blowout than the headline table suggests.]
Terrible news, Lindajcla. I notice that your first concern is for your clients and the effect that the change will have on them, but you must be experiencing real shock and fear yourself.
Take care of yourself.
Yes showson your very profound, your intellect blows away some of the giants on pollbludger like Mari or pysclops.
@608
Your not making much effort yourself EDJ.
[Just as we see Andrew Bolt erroneous take Waleed Aly’s interview on The Project totally out of context…]
This really surprises you? Bolt has been taking things out of context, misrepresenting facts, and presenting misleading graphs on his blog for the best part of 10 years.
Thailand has lots of troubles but having courts with about as much credibility as Abbott must be close to the top.
Lordy I am shocked ! Richo asks what’s wrong with pollies taking money from developers.
connie @ 606
Absolutely.
Milne implied that Gillard broke an election promise by saying there would be no carbon tax and now Abbott was doing the same.
Can you believe it?
Leader Lunatic demands that Gillard implements her carbon tax then accuses her of braking a promise for doing so!
Put them last and fix the lunatics once and for all!
Thsnkyou Helen…didn’t think anyone noticed I was here given I’m off topic ( though really on topic) .Good people work for poor pay to support the disadvantaged because they care…BUPA or some other mob are likely to deliver less…so sad…
[Yes showson your very profound, your intellect blows away some of the giants on pollbludger like Mari or pysclops.]
So since you such an intellectual giant can you explain why the government gave a hand out to Cadbury but not Nestle, Lindt or Haighs?
Dee The clip today looked as tho it was a standup to camera which doesn’t show Bill kn best light.
Totally agree that we have to fight the ‘bad Labor’ mantra. Can’t bear the thought of a rerun of the Beazley years.
Centre
[Christine Milne today said “Tony Abbott is having his Juliar moment by braking an election promise”.]
Okay, let’s have a link for that quote, or are you just making shit up in your endless quest to sink the Greens?
Re Ruawake @613: this “Contingency Reserve” would be amounts set aside for election sweeteners for the next Federal election.
I have not heard Labor say a thing in response to the need for the Liberals to fix Labor’s mess.
HELLO, everyone is going to think Labor left a mess in government and now we all have to pay.
It’s going to happen, it always happens, it happened with the ETS and now it is happening again!
Centre
[Milne implied that Gillard broke an election promise by saying there would be no carbon tax and now Abbott was doing the same.]
What a scumbag Milne shows herself to be. Even the front page of the GG just before the election reported Gillard as saying that she did not rule out putting a price on “carbon” if she won the election.
I heard Milne say it today.
When did she say it?
Who cares, the LOON hypo(crite) said it!
[HELLO, everyone is going to think Labor left a mess in government and now we all have to pay.
It’s going to happen, it always happens, it happened with the ETS and now it is happening again!
]
You may be right but more than 50% of the problem will be uniformed clowns who ignore ALL the things labor actually says.
looks like the worlds most powerful fascist has decided to bestow another brainfart upon the russian public http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-bans-the-f-word-from-movies-and-plays/499530.html
Kezza2
Are you for real?
Do you think I’d make that up? What a joke, I’ve got better things to do.
Accept that I am always right about the Greens :kiss:
Well showsom there won’t be any training grants for the cfmeu that’s for sure..
[lyndajcla
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 8:14 pm | PERMALINK
Thsnkyou Helen…didn’t think anyone noticed I was here given I’m off topic ( though really on topic) .Good people work for poor pay to support the disadvantaged because they care…BUPA or some other mob are likely to deliver less…so sad…]
Sorry, I did miss your post. Will you reiterate before I take the wrong meaning from Helen Sykes’ post.
[Simon Cullen as @Simon_Cullen Greens Leader Christine Milne says the ‘deficit tax’ will be Tony Abbott’s “Juliar moment” ]
Centre clean your ears out.
[When Tony Abbott said ‘no new taxes’ there was no asterisk, no fine print.
The Prime Minister can use all the weasel-words he likes, his new deficit tax is nothing but a deceit tax.
The deceit tax is a price that working Australians will pay for the Prime Minister’s broken promises and twisted priorities.
It is a tax grab that puts the politics of a manufactured ‘Budget emergency’ ahead of the welfare of millions of hardworking Australians.
It is a tax hike to pay for an extravagant paid parental leave scheme for multi-millionaires who don’t need an extra $75,000 to have a baby.
In the weeks ahead, I’m sure Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey will keep lecturing us about the need for heavy lifting.
There will be more sanctimony about ‘sharing the pain’.
Everyone knows that the Liberals desperately want this to be seen as a brave Budget.
But there is nothing brave about slugging ordinary Australians with an increase in their income tax.
There is nothing brave about forcing pensioners to wait longer for less.
There is nothing courageous about taking money from Australian families who feel like they are losing the battle with cost of living. There is nothing brave about deception.
Keeping promises takes courage, breaking them takes none.
Standing up for vulnerable Australians takes courage, picking on them takes none.
Governing for all Australians takes courage.
Labor is determined to stop Tony Abbot’s deceit tax.
We want nothing to do with a new tax on the income of ordinary Australians, and we will fight the Government every step of the way.
Bill Shorten on April 30, 2014]
I actually saw Milne say it, I think it was on Sky News.
Shades of LOON targets being non negotiable 😀
[From Chris Bowen, the apparently invisible on PB person, today.]
I did read it! 🙂
Centre:
Ch10’s Sandra Sully tweeted that from Milne, so she obviously said it.
[Greens leader Christine Milne says the #debt tax is Tony Abbott’s “Juliar moment” #EyewitnessNews @_AdamTodd]
F*ck. That is just appalling from Milne.
rua
As I keep saying, if I have not heard Labor defend their management of the budget in their last term in government among accusations that they left a MESS – nor has anyone else whose vote counts at election time.
FACT!
[Centre
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 8:22 pm | PERMALINK
Kezza2
Are you for real?
Do you think I’d make that up? What a joke, I’ve got better things to do.
Accept that I am always right about the Greens :kiss:]
Except for the fact you blew your own shit out your own face by saying to fess that was your take-out message from a Milne interview rather that a direct quote.
Shoulda known better.
And so should you, poroti.
lyndajcla
I have just logged back on and read your comment, what a terrible thing and to the vulnerable people as well, I was impressed by the fact that your first thoughts are with them not yourself. Perhaps it won’t happen ? Take care.
Hilarious. Barn Yabbie lauding Australia’s first export of fresh milk to China. No mention that it was done by the sort of people his Coalition hate . A Cooperative . Well done the 190 farmers from Northern NSW who said feck you to the Rodent era push to get rid of them all.
connie @ 638
Of course she said it, why doesn’t anybody believe me 😥 😆
Mari
How is Schnappi?
@638
I don’t see that tweet on Milne’s twitter.
Katharine Murphy must be taking the piss
[With a debt tax now clearly winging its way to Abbotland next week, let’s try just for a moment to look through the entirely reasonable fog of outrage about broken election promises and identify the challenge before the Coalition.
Right now, the Coalition (well, the leadership at least) is backing itself in something I’d describe as a crude, pure politics transaction]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/07/tony-abbotts-chance-to-show-the-courage-of-his-convictions
Kezza 2 thanks for asking…my service provides mental health support and today the Vic state gov gave it to a yet unknown provider…a great team of people who go above and beyond to help vulnerable people who will be devastated and grieving…it has been done in the context of the proposed fed NDIS changes which are likely now to be deferred until god knows when…a cruel change for nothing…have to manage worker and client grief when I’m grieving myself… hope that explains some of it…
kezza2
I report it as I saw it 😛
Referring to Abbott’s lies as Gillard’s Juliar moment (for implementing LOON policy which caused her to brake the election promise on their insistence)…disgraceful!
Lynda @596
That is awful news for your people and yourself. Govt farming out again and hurting the most vulnerable is disturbing.
My thoughts are with you as you try to explain to your clients. ♡♡
[confessions
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2014 at 8:27 pm | PERMALINK
Centre:
Ch10′s Sandra Sully tweeted that from Milne, so she obviously said it.
Greens leader Christine Milne says the #debt tax is Tony Abbott’s “Juliar moment” #EyewitnessNews @_AdamTodd
F*ck. That is just appalling from Milne.]
And you seriously believe that hasn’t been taken out of context? As a beat up to advertise Ten News? So Murdochian isn’t it. Not Rupe, but Lachlan, learnt at his father’s knee.
That’s what I mean about today’s journos. We have to go the primary source itself.
And, if Christine Milne really said that, then I’ll go he. I seriously will.